Howdy fellow fans of college football. It’s another crazy week this week and I have a lot to talk about so let’s get to it. First, congratulations to the 13 teams that gained their 6th win and bowl eligibility last week (E Michigan, Utah, Kansas St, UAB, Wisconsin, Purdue, UCF, Penn St, Arkansas, Marshall, Iowa St, Clemson, and Arizona St). Many more could follow this week as 26 have 5 wins. Good luck to all. On the flip side 7 schools got the dreaded 7th loss and are officially (although probably for a while now) looking to next year (Akron, Nebraska, LA Tech, Navy, Ga Southern, South Florida, and Indiana). That means 49 are now bowl eligible for 78 spots and 19 have been eliminated. 62 are still fighting.
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When you look through the predictions below you will notice the Southern Cal/California game is not there. The Bears cannot field a team and will forfeit so the Trojans will be credited with a 2-0 win. Speaking of predictions, the GCR was 74-48 61% which isn’t great until you remember previously unbeaten teams were 4-4 and previous winless teams were 6-3. Those “gimmies” weren’t given. It also didn’t help that the GCR struggled with its upset picks for the second week in a row 3-6 to win and 4-5 against the spread. All of this week’s picks are below, but first let’s look at this week’s games.
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MACNation is back and there were 3 games last night. Miami OH (113) walloped Buffalo (163) 45-18. W Michigan (72) had its hands full with Akron (165) but squeaked by 45-40. And in the upset of the week so far Ohio (173) beat E Michigan (70) on the road 34-26. The GCR picked the first two, but the Bobcats were a surprise so I start the week 2-1. Tonight I’m in a hotel in Columbus Ohio with limited options so instead of switching back and forth between the 3 tonight, I am exclusively watching Ball St 5-4 (108) at N Illinois 6-3 (53). The Cardinals are road favorites at BLST -3.0, but the GCR is calling one of its 6 upsets with the “should be better” Huskies 62%. The other two games on tonight are Toledo 4-5 (126) at Bowling Green 3-6 (149) in which the Rockets are up 7-0 in the first (they should win TOL 58%), and Kent St 5-4 (75) at C Michigan 5-4 (128) which starts at 8:00 (all times Eastern). The GCR is looking at the Chippewas to take the Golden Flashes in a home field advantage 55%.
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The pre-weekend game of the week is UNC 5-4 (57) at Pittsburgh 7-2 (29). The Panthers are favored in Vegas -6.5 and the GCR agrees 72%, but the game is critical for UNC who just beat Wake Forest (12). An upset here puts every team in the Coastal with 2 conference losses which could hurt Wake or NC St (27) who are the 1-loss Atlantic teams come playoff time.
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There are a ton of noon games on Saturday and it was hard to bring it to 2. But here are the biggest: Oklahoma 9-0 (2) heads to Waco to take on Baylor 7-2 (18). Looking to get to 10 wins and take out another contender, the Sooners still have Oklahoma St (9) on their schedule and are already in must continue to win mode. Vegas thinks it will be close OKLA -5.5, but the GCR thinks they will take care of business 75%. At the same time Michigan 8-1 (5) is visiting Penn St 6-3 (26) in “cannot lose another” mode. The GCR picks the Wolverines 72% so it surprised me when the line opened PSU -1.0. I can’t call this an upset game because the bettors have changed the favorite back to Michigan -1.5. Keep an eye on this one.
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Staying in the Big 10, at 3:30 giant killer Purdue 6-3 (23) will be in Columbus to play Ohio St 8-1 (7). The Buckeyes own their own destiny and the Hawkeyes are in a 4 way tie for the lead in the west. To say this game has national implications is an understatement. Vegas thinks OHST will run away -20.5 and the GCR agrees with the favorite, but not 3 TDs, I don’t think – OHST 76%.
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A couple of night games stick out to me with the first being Notre Dame 8-1 (6) at Virginia 6-3 (36). Can Notre Dame keep chipping away at a potential playoff spot against a tough Cavaliers team? Vegas is calling it ND -5.5 so a single score game. I’m thinking the Fighting Irish get it done 72%. The final game in this week’s spotlight is Washington St 5-4 (61) at Oregon 8-1 (11). If Oregon wins, they all clinch at least a tie for the Pac 12 North. Vegas thinks they do it -14.0 and I think they will cover 83%.
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Score updates: Toledo has maintained the lead 14-7 with 2:24 in the first. Ball St has taken advantage of multiple turnovers to get a 10-0 head start 3:14 in the first. That’s it for tonight, have a great weekend, and thanks for reading, G
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