G’s Expectation or What to Watch Week 4

Greetings college football fans. It’s the weekend (at least as far as college football goes) and there are 2 games on right now. On ESPN App St 2-1 (103) is hosting Marshall 2-1 (113). The Mountaineers are favored -7.5 and the GCR predicts a close game in agreement with Vegas at 58.5%. With 9:44 to go in the 3rd, the game is living up to its bill with the Thundering Herd trailing 21-20, but with the ball. Also playing tonight in the FCS is Alcorn St 1-2 (185) at Ark Pine Bluff 1-1 (233). The line has the Braves -5.0 and the GCR agrees 69.2%, but the Golden Lions are winning at home 26-7 with 10:56 to go in the 3rd. Check it out on ESPNU.

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Last week, I posted the GCR winners and this week, I’m adding the percentage. There are a whopping 17 games in which Vegas and the GCR are at odds. It would be nice to get some of those right. All of them are highlighted in yellow in the list below. All of the potential upsets involve FBS teams (the source I use does not list the FCS lines). But before we get to the 116 games this week, let’s narrow down a few to watch. By the way, Marshall just got a field goal and took the lead 23-21.

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Friday night the most intriguing game is Wake Forest 3-0 (20), one of just 2 remaining ACC undefeated teams travels to Virginia 2-1 (70). The Demon Deacons took care of Florida St (135) last week, but this is their first road game. The Cavaliers are coming back home after a 20-point loss to UNC (46). Vegas likes the home team -4.0, but the GCR disagrees at WF 70.3%.

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Saturday around noonish (all times Eastern) Notre Dame 3-0 (9) travels to Wisconsin 1-1 (66). Vegas does not have a lot of love for the Irish as the Badgers are favored -6.5, but the GCR says no to such foolishness – Irish 72.5%. A second game is Missouri 2-1 (63) at Boston College 3-0 (22), the other perfect ACC team. Like Wake Forest, Vegas is looking to have all 14 members having at least one loss by the end of the weekend with the Tigers -1.5, but like WF, the GCR suggests the Eagles 71.0%. And Marshall scores off of a turnover and are up 30-21 4:16 in the 3rd. Ark Pine Bluff is now up 32-19 with 3:03 in the 3rd.

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In the mid-afternoon, Iowa St 2-1 (61) travels to Baylor 3-0 (15) and are favored on the road -7.0, but the GCR thinks the Bears remain perfect 72.9%. I’m also going to follow UTSA 3-0 (25) at Memphis 3-0 (26), one in which Vegas is sticking with the Tiger theme -3.0, and while the GCR agrees in the closeness of the game, UTSA pulls this road win 55.1%. Alcorn St just drove the field and lessened the deficit – Ark Pine Bluff 32-26. I can barely keep up with the speed at which these 4 teams are scoring. It’s awesome!

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The early evening games include UCLA 2-1 (57) at Stanford 2-1 (28). UCLA lost last week to Fresno St (37) and the Cardinal lost to Kansas St (5) week 1. Vegas is thinking the Bruins shake off the loss to a Group of 5 school -4.5, but the GCR likes the Cardinal (or the big tree, whichever) 66.1% at home. Speaking of Kansas St (3-0), they are heading south to take on Oklahoma St 3-0 (23) in a fantastic matchup. Vegas again disagrees with the GCR. Cowboys -6.0 vs Wildcats 60.2%. The Golden Lions just had a 60+ yard reception and punched it in, but missed a 2-point conversion – 38-26.

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Those are the picks for this week – if you didn’t notice all of the games are GCR upset calls. Check out the full list of all games below. Thanks for reading and please comment, question, and share with others, G

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