And we are back to another wonderful weekend of college football. The week actually started Tuesday when Louisiana (53) beat visiting App St (59) 41-13 in a game of 4-1 teams trying to keep pace with Coastal Carolina (16) in the Sun Belt. Those GCR numbers are pre-game so the Cajuns should rise a few spots. Right now, I’m watching more Sun Belt action as Ga Southern 2-4 (153) invades Mobile and the Jaguars of South Alabama (115). The home team just scored a TD with about ten minutes to go in the first. The only other game tonight (no FCS teams are in action) is Navy 1-4 (102) in beautiful Memphis 3-3 (119) in an American Conference showdown. Memphis is up 7-0 with more than 11 minutes to go in the 1st. Both home teams should win 67.1% and 64.7% respectively.
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The pre-Saturday game I’m most interested to see is Clemson 3-2 (30) at Syracuse 3-3 (88) Friday night at 7:00 (all times Eastern). The Orange have played the Tigers tough in previous years and I had this one circled at the beginning of the season as one that could change the landscape of the ACC. Neither team is exactly where anyone thought they would be at the midway point, but that makes the game even more important. The ACC’s struggles (1 undefeated team, only 3 1-loss teams remaining, 7 winning teams) are only overshadowed by the Pac 12 (zero, 2, and 4) show in a 5-9 record against non-conference Power 5 teams (and 2 of those winners lost a game against a Group of 5 opponent). I think it will be entertaining. Vegas says Clemson -13.5 and I do think they will win with a GCR percentage of 59.8%.
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Score update: Navy ties it up with less than a minute in the 1st. Within a minute real time of that, South Alabama gets a field goal 10-0 with 1:58 to go in the opening quarter.
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The early games on Saturday have a couple games that are really intriguing – one of which could have New Year’s Six if not Playoff impact. That one is Oklahoma St 5-0 (6) at Texas 4-2 (18). The Longhorns are coming off of a slugfest with Oklahoma (8) falling just short. The Cowboys had a bye week. Unfortunate scheduling aside, Texas cannot lose another conference game if it wants to be in contention for a major bowl. They’ve had disappointing seasons in the past and don’t want to fall into that pattern again. Oklahoma St is one of just 13 undefeated FBS teams and have to be thinking about winning the Big 12 or a January bowl. I haven’t talked this year about offensive and defensive efficiency. They are GCR ratings that compare how a team performs against other teams that play the same opponent. For the OE, if an opponent averages giving up 20 points a game and your team scores 24, the OE is 120. Likewise if an opponent normally scores 30 points a game and your team gives up 20 your DE is 167. Then I rank them. Texas is an offensive team with their OE ranking as the 12th best in the country (the score is 155 – so they score 15.5 points for every 10 an opponent allows on average). Their DE is 105th (the score is 111 – so they allow 10.0 points for every 11.1 an opponent scores on average). Oklahoma St is the opposite. An DE ranking of 17 (167 or 10.0 points for every 16.7) and an OE ranking of 115 (103 or 10.3 for every 10.0). It is truly strength on strength. Vegas likes Texas -5.0, but the GCR says defense wins out – Cowboys 75.8%.
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While I was typing all of that Memphis scored again and are up 14-7 early in the second, and South Alabama has scored twice opening a 24-0 margin.
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The second early game that I want to follow is between a couple of 4-2 teams trying to pick up some of the mess of the SEC West. Only Alabama (11) has 2 conference wins, but all of the other 6 teams have 1. Arkansas (17), LSU (50), and Texas A&M (45), who upset Alabama last week, have 2 conference losses, but the other 4 teams have 1. There are two SEC West matchups [one of which is Alabama (70.9% to win) at Mississippi St (58)], and the intriguing one is Auburn (29) at Arkansas (17). The Razorbacks are on a 2-game skid and the War Tigers saw first hand why Georgia is ranked number 1. Relevance in the division is now for every team. The winner of this game survives to try again next week, the other starts planning for next year. Vegas likes Arkansas to get back on the winning track -4.5 and the GCR agrees 56.5%.
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More score updates: Navy got a field goal, but Memphis answered with a long catch and run for a TD. Memphis 21-10.
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The midafternoon games were pretty easy to pick this week. Staying in the SEC, but for a completely different reason, the 2 remaining undefeated SEC teams meet between the hedges as Kentucky (4), already off to their best start since 1950 (Bear Bryant was the head coach), tries to dethrone Georgia (1) at 3:30. Both teams are defensive focused – the Wildcats are 23rd in DE (159 score) while the Bulldogs are the most stingy in the country with an outstanding 451 score (interpretation: they give up 10.0 points when their opponent averages 45.1) – in fact they’ve only given up double digits in a game twice: last week against Auburn and 13 against South Carolina (34). The offensive side of the ball favors UGA as well (KY: 83rd with a score of 116, and UGA: 4th with 175). Both teams played South Carolina (which is why the Gamecocks currently have the 9th ranked SOS): UGA won at home 40-13 and Kentucky won in Columbia 16-10. Don’t get me wrong: Kentucky is close, but not this year. Vegas has the Dawgs -22.5, and the GCR has UGA 57.9.
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South Alabama continues to roll: 31-0 with over 8 1/2 minutes to go in the half.
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The second midday game is between future conference foes when BYU 5-1 (28), coming off an upset loss to Boise St (33) visit Waco to tackle Baylor 5-1 (20) whose single loss was to undefeated Oklahoma St. The Cougars chances of being the Group of 5 choice to a major bowl took a hit, but a win against the Bears could put them back in the conversation. Baylor is hoping the Oklahomas beat each other up and the Texas can help. Longtime readers know that Baylor is known for its second half collapses and a loss here would lead to relegation to a lower bowl berth. Baylor is favored -6.5 and the GCR agrees 58.7%.
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In the evening, NC St 4-1 (35) plays just their 2nd ACC game (they beat Clemson earlier in the season) when they travel to Boston to take on the Eagles 4-1 (33) who just lost to Clemson in their first conference game. Wake Forest (5) is already 4-0 in the conference and the pressure is rising. Both teams need this win to stay in the conversation (NC St at 1-1 would still be in control of their own destiny, buy the margin for error would be close to nil). Vegas thinks NC St remains perfect in the ACC -3.0, but the GCR says Boston College prevails at home bouncing back from the loss 56.3%.
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Scoring update: Memphis takes a 28-10 lead to the locker room and as they approach half-time, South Alabama leads Ga Southern 31-8 as they approach the half.
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At 9:00 Air Force 5-1 (39) flies to Boise St 3-3 (60) to fight on the blue field – home of the Idaho Potato Bowl. Both teams are coming off wins against previously unbeaten teams (Wyoming (36) and BYU (28), respectively). I really like it when these two teams play – it could be the biggest rivalry in the Mountain West Mountain division. In another upset alert, Vegas likes the Broncos -4.0, but the Falcons should win 71.8%.
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Finally, Arizona St 5-1 (21), clearly the Belle of the Pac 12 post midnight ball, at 3-0 in the conference makes the trip to Salt Lake City to take on the Utes 3-2 (46) who, at 2-0, are the only other Pac 12 team without a conference loss. Yes, after this game there will be just one. Vegas can’t decide and have the game listed as a pick ’em. The GCR doesn’t call coin tosses and gives the Sun Devils a road win and a commanding lead in the division (probably the conference too) 70.3%.
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That’s all I have for today. There are 108 games (107 on the list below, but Norfolk St is hosting Division III UVA Lynchburg) to follow. I wish your team well. Thanks for reading and please share with others, G
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