So, oh great and wonderful fans, we had a second week of upsets and mayhem that triggered a number of changes. First, each year, I make changes to the prediction algorithm based on the current year’s games. This year, last year’s formula was just getting worse each week – of the 106 games over the weekend, the GCR only correctly predicted 70 for a paltry .660. So, I spent some time today making adjustments and hoping there will be improvement.
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I chatted with some friends today and it made me think it might be a good time to talk through the meaning of the various metrics the GCR uses. The original piece of the puzzle was the Strength of Schedule (SOS). Two things to know: 1) the basic math starts with the number of games a team’s opponents have won – that basic number changes each week as more games are played. If a team’s past opponents win, the SOS goes up, roughly. Add to that location bonuses (playing teams away from home helps increase the score) and the “league” bonuses/penalties (an FCS team gets a bump for playing a Group of 5 or Power 5 school, as a Group of 5 school gets a smaller bump for playing a Power 5 school – those higher “league” schools get a penalty for the opposite. Then the final piece is the opponent’s opponents SOS bit that gives us the SOS Score, which I don’t usually publish. I do sometimes (as I did this week) publish the SOS rank (from 1 – most difficult – to 258 easiest). 2) The second thing to remember is the GCR doesn’t understand the past or future. All games that are played are played at the “same time” Example: in week 2, Iowa St plays Illinois. In this example, both teams are 0-1. Iowa wins the game and is credited with playing an 0-2 team – a score of 0. However, the Illini win the next 5 games. At that time, Iowa gets credit for playing a 5-2 team. Make sense? Games that have not been played yet have no impact on the score or ranking.
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Here is a list, by conference, of the top 2 SOS teams (most challenging schedules) and bottom 2 (easiest) as of right now. After the name of the school, the first number is the current overall rank and the second is the SOS rank. From the FCS, in reverse alphabetical order
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| SWAC | Texas Southern (188/131), Bethune Cookman (251/139) | Alabama A&M (171/254), Florida A&M (176/249) |
| Southland | Nicholls (200/165), McNeese (248/186) | SELA (134/245), Incarnate Word (128/220) |
| SoCon | Citadel (187/118), W Carolina (244/119) | E Tennessee St (71/240), VMI (148/204) |
| Pioneer | San Diego (220/176), Dayton (163/195) | Stetson (230/258), Presbyterian (224/256) |
| Patriot | Lafayette (210/144), Colgate (229/180) | Holy Cross (165/222), Bucknell (246/211) |
| Ohio Valley | Murray St (195/138), Austin Peay (211/148) | Tennessee St (218/243), Tennessee Martin (132/239) |
| Northeast | Bryant (182/170), Wagner (254/182) | C Connecticut (249/238), Long Island (243/219) |
| MVFC | Youngstown St (173/114), Missouri St (151/130) | North Dakota St (84/231), South Dakota St (131/223) |
| MEAC | Norfolk St (144/117), Howard (217/171) | Delaware St (205/252), NC Central (232/226) |
| Ivy | Brown (225/178), Cornell (252/213) | Harvard (96/247), Dartmouth (97/246) |
| Colonial | Albany (239/132), Stony Brook (237/136) | Rhode Island (85/236), James Madison (133/205) |
| Big South | Campbell (159/161), Charleston Southern (222/181) | Hampton (213/242), Kennesaw St (136/225) |
| Big Sky | S Utah (228/123), Cal Poly (240/145) | E Washington (72/253), Sacramento St (168/244) |
| AQ7/WAC | Lamar (179/124), Abilene Christian (181/149) | Tarleton (226/257), Sam Houston (83/216) |
| Sun Belt | ULM (68/15), Georgia St (122/54) | Coastal Carolina (16/172), South Alabama (115/126) |
| SEC | South Carolina (34/9), Arkansas (17/12) | Kentucky (4/80), Tennessee (49/66) |
| Pac 12 | Arizona (98/19), Stanford (57/26) | Oregon St (63/98), Washington St (110/96) |
| MWC | UNLV (78/6), Boise St (60/22) | San Diego St (22/159), Nevada (61/129) |
| MAC | Kent St (69/33), N Illinois (37/38) | C Michigan (142/125), E Michigan (87/122) |
| Indies | UMASS (138/42), New Mexico St (161/68) | Army (66/163), Liberty (31/106) |
| C-USA | W Kentucky (76/10), Old Dominion (112/23) | UTEP (52/173), UTSA (14/147) |
| Big Ten | Rutgers (25/1), Indiana (47/3) | Michigan St (7/115), Minnesota (73/91) |
| Big 12 | Kansas St (19/2), West Virginia (65/7) | Oklahoma (8/110), Baylor (20/81) |
| American | South Florida (75/8), Tulane (113/24) | SMU (12/133), UCF (118/128) |
| ACC | Miami FL (62/14), Florida St (74/17) | Boston College (33/108), NC St (35/105) |
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What deeper analysis shows is that as long as team is undefeated, the SOS won’t hurt too much, but once a loss hits… By the same token playing a difficult schedule can keep a team “higher than its ability”… for the moment. We are halfway through the regular season and the cream will rise (and the sediment will sink). Speaking of halfway, of course the FCS has a real playoff system with 24 teams and everything, so it’s much too early to say too much. The FBS, on the other hand, has most of its postseason teams in bowls. The first of the year officially will miss a bowl. Remember, a team must have 6 wins and at least a .500 record. There are provisions for 5-7 teams to fill in if not enough qualifiers exist, but we are going with 7 losses and you’re out! Congratulations UCONN (183), by losing to previous winless UMASS (138), you are the first 0-7 team in 2021!!! New Mexico St (161) is 1-6 is off this week before traveling to 3-3 Hawaii (111) in Week 8. By then a couple of other schools could join them in bowl detention.
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There were some teams that clinched bowl games including SMU (12) of the American, Wake Forest (5) of the ACC, Oklahoma (8) of the Big 12, Iowa (2), Michigan (3), and Michigan St (7) of the Big Ten, UTSA (14) of Conference USA, Georgia (1) and Kentucky (4) of the SEC, and Coastal Carolina (16) of the Sun Belt. 10 in so far. 14 – Cincinnati (10), Houston (40), Baylor (20), Oklahoma St (6), Ohio St (13), Penn St (9), UTEP (52), BYU (28), Liberty (31), Notre Dame (15), Air Force (39), San Diego St (22), Arizona St (21), and Alabama (11) – have 5 wins and could add to the list as early as next week.
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Before I close, 17 of the GCR top 25 come from 3 conferences (there are 38 teams in the Big 12, Big Ten, and SEC) – nearly half of the teams. The Pac 12 (best is Arizona St at 21) and ACC (Wake Forest at 5) have one each. Notre Dame represents the Independents at 15. The American has 2 (Cincinnati at 10 and SMU at 12) while Conference USA (UTSA at 14), Mountain West (San Diego St at 22), and the Sun Belt(Coastal Carolina at 16) have one each. Only the MAC whose best team is N Illinois (37) is unranked. This will have an impact on the make up of the playoffs and the quality of major bowls. How much? It’s too early to tell. But it will be lots of fun figuring it out.
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Thank you for reading and please share with others and/or provide feedback. G
