Happy Thursday and the start of Week 9 in college football! Years ago, when I first started the original calculations, I didn’t have any predictions. Just the rankings (and that was just for the FBS). Later, I added the FCS to the rankings, but still hadn’t figured out a decent predictive formula. Finally, a few years ago, I developed the percent to win metric which I’ve used ever since. For the stat geeks, if there are any other than me, I used regression analysis with a full season’s worth of data, in retrospect, after all the games were played. The formula is still sound, although I do adjust the variable weights occasionally. Last week, the formula predicted 72 winners out of 110 games for a disappointing .655 accuracy. That brings the season record to 438-196 (.691). This prediction is used for all games between Division I (Power 5, Group of 5, and FCS) teams. I do not try to predict the winner of FCS vs non-D1 games.
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This year, I finally (never said I was a good stat geek) figured out the variables for a cover prediction. This prediction is only for the FBS teams (Power 5 and Group of 5) right now. I do not include any game involving the FCS. There are two reasons for this. The Linearity (again for the stat geeks) of the formula seems to be more accurate for the FBS games and the sites I use for Vegas lines don’t report the FCS point spread until the day of the game – long after I’ve posted here. Although I would love to report the record on those games, it would be cheating to do so without publishing first. So, until I can easily solve both problems, the FBS will have to do. Back in the beginning of predicting, the GCR wasn’t valid until around week 4 (I fixed that for the percent to win), and the same is true for the cover prediction. Between limiting the games I report and the later start, I have fewer data points each week and for the season. Last week, if one placed bets on the favorites for each FBS/FBS game, he or she would have been right 24 out of the 52 qualifying games (.462). I use the always betting the favorite as a semi-random standard. The GCR was 28-24 (.538). So far, the favorites are 68-92 (.425) while the GCR is 86-74 (.538) against the spread. Here’s to continued good fortune.
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There are three games tonight. First, at 7:30 on ESPN2, Louisiana (4-3/88 and 2-2 in the Sun Belt West) travel to Hattiesburg to play Southern Miss (4-3/71 and 2-1 in the Sun Belt West). In past years, this would be a no-brainer, but LAU has lost some luster and SMIS is showing signs of improvement. The original line had SMIS as the favorite, but that flipped during the week to LAU -2.5. The GCR agrees LAU 55.4% and to cover. Also, at 7:30 on ESPN, the ACC gives us the Hokies of Virginia Tech (2-5/134 and 1-3 in the ACC Coastal) invades Raleigh to face NC St (5-2/21 and 1-2 in the ACC Atlantic). In past years, this would be a no-brainer, but VT has fallen on tough times and NCST, while out of the running for the division, will still have a say in its outcome. Vegas sees the Wolfpack winning big, NCST -13.5 and the GCR agrees both in percent to win (82.4%) and to cover. Later tonight, in a Pac 12 slugfest, Utah (5-2/26 and 3-1 in the conference) heads north to take on Washington St (4-3/48 and 1-3 in the conference). Utah is still trying to make noise in the conference, and while it’s an uphill battle, they could do it, but it starts tonight. In another sweep, Vegas has UTAH -7.0 while the GCR has the Utes 67.7% to win and predicts UTAH to cover.
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There are currently 50 teams with 5 or more wins in the FBS and 20 of them are idle this week (of course that means they’ve not had an idle week yet so have played 8 games, but still). There are still some exciting and meaningful games like Ohio St (7-0/2) at Penn St (6-1/11) with OHST -14.5 (92.7% to win and they will cover), Kentucky (5-2/27) at Tennessee (7-0/5) with TENN -12.0 (99.9% to win and they will cover), and while vying to be the first MAC team to qualify for a bowl, Toledo (5-3/72) will attack E Michigan (5-3/84) with TOL -6.5 (TOL 56.6% to win, but EMI will cover). The FCS game of the week is Rhode Island (5-2/159 and 3-1 in the Colonial) taking on William & Mary (6-1/125 and 3-1) with not only a line to the conference title but also a better seed in the playoffs. No Vegas line, but the GCR has W&M 59.4%.
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As I’ve been changing not only the metrics I use and the prediction level, I also started thinking about how to make the predictions easier to read. First, I switched to html for the tables, which isn’t perfect with extra spaces and such, but is easier than a picture from Excel. And it dawned on me that unless you knew when a given team was going to play, a specific game was hard to find. So, I switched it up and need your feedback to know whether to continue or make additional changes or revert. The rules that drive the changes are:
- All games are listed within each conference, by kickoff time
- The Power 5 is listed first, ACC, then Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC
- The Group of 5 is next, American, C-USA, MAC, MWC, and Sun Belt
- The Independents are next
- The FCS follows in like form (alphabetical by conference)
- When a non-conference game is played, the full listing is in the first conference listed (for an ACC/SEC game, the details will be in the ACC regardless of which team is at home)
- For each conference with an out of conference game reported earlier, a reference under OOC (for out of conference) is listed with the opponent and conference
- Idle teams are listed at the end of each conference (that has one or more), which means all 261 teams are accounted for each game.
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I think this will make it easier to find games, but please let me know if you hate it, love it, are indifferent, and especially if you have any suggestions for improvement.
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As the first quarter winds down (1:00), VT and NCST are scoreless. SMIS rushed for a touchdown, but LAU returned the blocked extra point for a score to give us a 6-2 score (5:30 to go in the first).
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Here is the new format of the predictions. It’s not as pretty as I wanted it to be, but I’m always open to learning new things. Have a wonderful football-filled weekend and I’ll be back Sunday with G’s Evaluation or The Top 261 Teams in Division I.
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| Time | Away | Conf Rec | Home | Conf Rec | Vegas | GCR | To Cover |
| Atlantic Coast Conference (Power 5) | |||||||
| THU | Virginia Tech (2-5/134) | ACC (1-3) | NC St (5-2/21) | ACC (1-2) | NCST -13.5 | NCST 82.4% | NCST |
| 12:00 | Boston College (2-5/89) | ACC (1-4) | UCONN (3-5/108) | IND (0-0) | BC -7.5 | UCON 55.9% | UCON |
| 12:00 | Georgia Tech (3-4/59) | ACC (2-2) | Florida St (4-3/35) | ACC (2-3) | FSU -24.0 | FSU 65.0% | GT |
| 12:00 | Notre Dame (4-3/43) | IND (1-0) | Syracuse (6-1/9) | ACC (3-1) | SYR -2.5 | SYR 97.4% | SYR |
| 12:30 | Miami FL (3-4/97) | ACC (1-2) | Virginia (3-4/63) | ACC (1-3) | MIAF -2.0 | MIAF 55.4% | MIAF |
| 3:30 | Wake Forest (6-1/13) | ACC (2-1) | Louisville (4-3/51) | ACC (2-3) | WF -3.5 | WF 84.7% | WF |
| 8:00 | Pittsburgh (4-3/61) | ACC (1-2) | UNC (6-1/17) | ACC (3-0) | UNC -3.0 | UNC 86.6% | UNC |
| IDLE | Clemson (8-0/4), Duke (5-3/39) | ||||||
| Big 12 Conference (Power 5) | |||||||
| 12:00 | TCU (7-0/6) | B12 (4-0) | West Virginia (3-4/86) | B12 (1-3) | TCU -7.0 | TCU 99.9% | TCU |
| 12:00 | Oklahoma (4-3/37) | B12 (1-3) | Iowa St (3-4/69) | B12 (0-4) | OKLA -1.0 | OKLA 60.8% | OKLA |
| 3:30 | Oklahoma St (6-1/15) | B12 (3-1) | Kansas St (5-2/24) | B12 (3-1) | KSST -1.5 | OKST 72.0% | OKST |
| 7:30 | Baylor (4-3/54) | B12 (2-2) | Texas Tech (4-3/49) | B12 (2-2) | TXTC -2.5 | BAY 55.7% | BAY |
| IDLE | Kansas (5-3/36), Texas (5-3/32) | ||||||
| Big Ten Conference (Power 5) | |||||||
| 12:00 | Ohio St (7-0/2) | B1G (4-0) | Penn St (6-1/11) | B1G (3-1) | OHST -14.5 | OHST 92.7% | OHST |
| 2:30 | Rutgers (4-3/76) | B1G (1-3) | Minnesota (4-3/50) | B1G (1-3) | MINN -14.0 | MINN 59.2% | RUTG |
| 3:30 | Illinois (6-1/10) | B1G (3-1) | Nebraska (3-4/95) | B1G (2-2) | ILL -7.5 | ILL 99.9% | ILL |
| 3:30 | Northwestern (1-6/92) | B1G (1-3) | Iowa (3-4/52) | B1G (1-3) | IOWA -11.0 | IOWA 59.4% | NW |
| 7:30 | Michigan St (3-4/70) | B1G (4-0) | Michigan (7-0/3) | B1G (4-0) | MICH -23.0 | MICH 99.9% | MICH |
| IDLE | Indiana (3-5/65), Maryland (6-2/23), Purdue (5-3/34), Wisconsin (4-4/57) | ||||||
| Pac 12 Conference (Power 5) | |||||||
| THU | Utah (5-2/26) | P12 (3-1) | Washington St (4-3/48) | P12 (1-3) | UTAH -7.0 | UTAH 67.7% | UTAH |
| 3:30 | Oregon (6-1/16) | P12 (4-0) | California (3-4/101) | P12 (1-3) | ORE -17.0 | ORE 89.8% | ORE |
| 7:00 | Southern Cal (6-1/12) | P12 (4-1) | Arizona (3-4/81) | P12 (1-3) | SCAL -15.5 | SCAL 95.0% | SCAL |
| 7:30 | Arizona St (2-5/77) | P12 (1-3) | Colorado (1-6/75) | P12 (1-3) | AZST -13.5 | AZST 55.7% | COL |
| 10:30 | Stanford (3-4/55) | P12 (1-4) | UCLA (6-1/14) | P12 (3-1) | UCLA -16.5 | UCLA 98.5% | UCLA |
| IDLE | Oregon St (6-2/22), Washington (6-2/28) | ||||||
| Southeastern Conference (Power 5) | |||||||
| 12:00 | Arkansas (4-3/46) | SEC (1-3) | Auburn (3-4/40) | SEC (1-3) | ARK -3.5 | ARK 61.0% | ARK |
| 3:30 | Florida (4-3/47) – N | SEC (1-3) | Georgia (7-0/1) – N | SEC (4-0) | GEO -23.0 | GEO 99.9% | GEO |
| 4:00 | Missouri (3-4/90) | SEC (1-3) | South Carolina (5-2/29) | SEC (2-2) | SCAR -4.0 | SCAR 77.0% | SCAR |
| 7:00 | Kentucky (5-2/27) | SEC (2-2) | Tennessee (7-0/5) | SEC (3-0) | TENN -12.0 | TENN 99.9% | TENN |
| 7:30 | Mississippi (7-1/8) | SEC (3-1) | Texas A&M (3-4/58) | SEC (1-3) | MISS -2.0 | MISS 98.7% | MISS |
| IDLE | Alabama (7-1/7), LSU (6-2/18), Mississippi St (5-3/30), Vanderbilt (3-5/56) | ||||||
| American Athletic Conference (Group of 5) | |||||||
| FRI | East Carolina (5-3/62) | AAC (3-2) | BYU (4-4/83) | IND (0-2) | BYU -3.5 | ECAR 61.1% | ECAR |
| 12:00 | South Florida (1-6/114) | AAC (0-3) | Houston (4-3/64) | AAC (2-1) | HOU -18.5 | HOU 64.6% | SFLA |
| 3:30 | SMU (3-4/91) | AAC (1-2) | Tulsa (3-4/106) | AAC (1-2) | SMU -2.0 | SMU 55.3% | SMU |
| 3:30 | Cincinnati (6-1/25) | AAC (3-0) | UCF (5-2/41) | AAC (2-1) | UCF -1.5 | CIN 66.9% | CIN |
| 3:30 | Temple (2-5/146) | AAC (0-3) | Navy (2-5/137) | AAC (2-3) | NAVY -13.5 | NAVY 55.2% | TEMP |
| IDLE | Memphis (4-4/96), Tulane (7-1/19) | ||||||
| Conferenence USA (Group of 5) | |||||||
| FRI | LA Tech (2-5/104) | CUSA (1-2) | FIU (3-4/147) | CUSA (1-2) | LATC -6.5 | LATC 56.9% | FIU |
| 2:00 | Charlotte (1-7/145) | CUSA (0-4) | Rice (4-3/85) | CUSA (2-1) | RICE -16.5 | RICE 64.0% | CHAR |
| 3:30 | North Texas (4-4/105) | CUSA (3-1) | W Kentucky (5-3/68) | CUSA (3-1) | WKY -10.0 | WKY 63.0% | NTEX |
| 7:00 | UAB (4-3/73) | CUSA (2-2) | FAU (3-5/127) | CUSA (2-2) | UAB -4.5 | UAB 62.1% | UAB |
| 9:00 | Middle Tennessee (3-4/119) | CUSA (0-3) | UTEP (4-4/126) | CUSA (2-2) | UTEP -2.0 | UTEP 57.0% | UTEP |
| IDLE | UTSA (6-2/38) | ||||||
| Mid-American Conference (Group of 5) | |||||||
| 12:00 | Toledo (5-3/72) | MAC (3-1) | E Michigan (5-3/84) | MAC (2-2) | TOL -6.5 | TOL 56.6% | EMI |
| 12:00 | Miami OH (3-5/136) | MAC (1-3) | Akron (1-7/122) | MAC (0-4) | MIAO -8.5 | MIAO 56.6% | AKR |
| IDLE | Ball St (4-4/103), Bowling Green (4-4/100), Buffalo (5-3/53), C Michigan (2-6/128), Kent St (3-5/109), N Illinois (2-6/139), Ohio (5-3/80), W Michigan (3-5/133) | ||||||
| Mountain West Conference (Group of 5) | |||||||
| 7:00 | Colorado St (2-5/140) | MWC (2-1) | Boise St (5-2/42) | MWC (4-0) | BOST -27.0 | BOST 74.7% | COST |
| 10:30 | San Diego St (4-3/94) | MWC (2-1) | Fresno St (3-4/102) | MWC (2-1) | FRST -8.5 | SDST 58.6% | SDST |
| 10:30 | Nevada (2-6/165) | MWC (0-4) | San Jose St (4-2/60) | MWC (2-1) | SJST -24.5 | SJST 71.7% | NEV |
| MID | Wyoming (5-3/74) | MWC (3-1) | Hawaii (2-6/150) | MWC (1-2) | WYO -10.5 | WYO 64.1% | WYO |
| IDLE | Air Force (5-3/67), New Mexico (2-6/141), UNLV (4-4/120), Utah St (3-5/115) | ||||||
| Sun Belt Conference (Group of 5) | |||||||
| THU | Louisiana (4-3/88) | SUN (2-2) | Southern Miss (4-3/71) | SUN (2-1) | LAU -2.5 | LAU 55.4% | LAU |
| 3:00 | Old Dominion (3-4/99) | SUN (2-1) | Georgia St (2-5/121) | SUN (1-2) | GAST -3.5 | OD 57.4% | OD |
| 3:30 | Robert Morris (0-7/216) | BSO (0-3) | App St (4-3/78) | SUN (2-2) | NL | APST 65.1% | NL |
| 4:00 | South Alabama (5-2/44) | SUN (2-1) | Arkansas St (2-6/138) | SUN (1-4) | SALA -10.0 | SALA 71.7% | SALA |
| 7:00 | Coastal Carolina (6-1/31) | SUN (3-1) | Marshall (4-3/79) | SUN (1-2) | MARS -2.5 | CCAR 72.3% | CCAR |
| IDLE | Ga Southern (5-3/66), James Madison (5-2/45), Texas St (3-5/130), Troy (6-2/33), ULM (2-6/112) | ||||||
| Independents (Group of 5 – Notre Dame is Power 5) | |||||||
| 3:30 | New Mexico St (2-5/168) | IND (0-0) | UMASS (1-6/111) | IND (0-1) | NMST -2.0 | NMST 55.5% | NMST |
| OOC | BYU (East Carolina – AAC), Notre Dame (Syracuse -ACC), UCONN (Boston College – ACC) | ||||||
| IDLE | Army (3-4/113), Liberty (7-1/20) | ||||||
| Atlantic Sun Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 1:00 | Charleston Southern (1-6/235) | BSO (1-2) | Kennesaw St (3-4/207) | ASUN (1-2) | NL | KNST 55.8% | NL |
| 2:00 | E Kentucky (4-3/180) | ASUN (1-1) | SEMO (6-1/129) | OVFC (2-0) | NL | SEMO 60.6% | NL |
| 4:00 | Jacksonville St (6-2/148) | ASUN (2-0) | Austin Peay (5-2/152) | ASUN (1-1) | NL | JAX 55.3% | NL |
| 5:00 | N Alabama (1-6/259) | ASUN (0-3) | C Arkansas (3-4/194) | ASUN (2-0) | NL | CARK 56.0% | NL |
| Big Sky Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 3:00 | Montana (5-2/154) | BSKY (2-2) | Weber St (6-1/117) | BSKY (3-1) | NL | WEB 59.4% | NL |
| 4:00 | Portland St (2-5/205) | BSKY (1-3) | E Washington (2-5/204) | BSKY (1-3) | NL | EWAS 55.1% | NL |
| 7:00 | Cal Poly (1-6/257) | BSKY (0-4) | UC Davis (3-4/202) | BSKY (2-2) | NL | UCD 56.0% | NL |
| 9:00 | Idaho (5-2/155) | BSKY (4-0) | Sacramento St (7-0/93) | BSKY (4-0) | NL | SAC 63.3% | NL |
| IDLE | Idaho St (1-7/243), Montana St (7-1/118), N Arizona (3-5/244), N Colorado (2-6/242) | ||||||
| Big South Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 1:00 | Campbell (4-3/181) | BSO (2-0) | NC A&T (4-3/185) | BSO (2-0) | NL | CAMP 55.1% | NL |
| 1:30 | Bryant (2-5/261) | BSO (0-2) | Gardner Webb (3-5/198) | BSO (2-0) | NL | GW 55.5% | NL |
| OOC | Charleston Southern (Kennesaw St – ASUN), Robert Morris (App St – SUN) | ||||||
| Colonial Athletic Association (FCS) | |||||||
| 1:00 | Hampton (4-3/190) | CAA (1-3) | Villanova (4-3/184) | CAA (2-2) | NL | VILL 55.5% | NL |
| 1:00 | Stony Brook (1-6/229) | CAA (1-4) | Albany (1-6/246) | CAA (0-4) | NL | SB 55.0% | NL |
| 1:00 | Richmond (5-2/151) | CAA (3-1) | Maine (2-5/251) | CAA (2-2) | NL | RICH 58.9% | NL |
| 1:00 | Rhode Island (5-2/159) | CAA (3-1) | William & Mary (6-1/125) | CAA (3-1) | NL | W&M 59.4% | NL |
| 1:00 | Towson (2-5/232) | CAA (0-4) | Monmouth (4-4/197) | CAA (2-3) | NL | MONM 56.1% | NL |
| 3:30 | Delaware (6-1/116) | CAA (3-1) | Elon (5-3/174) | CAA (3-2) | NL | DEL 60.1% | NL |
| IDLE | New Hampshire (6-2/158) | ||||||
| Ivy League (FCS) | |||||||
| FRI | Yale (4-2/171) | IVY (2-1) | Columbia (3-3/195) | IVY (0-3) | NL | YALE 56.4% | NL |
| 12:30 | Penn (6-0/98) | IVY (3-0) | Brown (2-4/239) | IVY (0-3) | NL | PENN 64.4% | NL |
| 1:00 | Cornell (4-2/178) | IVY (1-2) | Princeton (6-0/110) | IVY (3-0) | NL | PRIN 62.5% | NL |
| 1:30 | Harvard (4-2/173) | IVY (2-1) | Dartmouth (2-4/233) | IVY (1-2) | NL | HARV 57.1% | NL |
| Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 12:00 | South Carolina St (3-4/193) | MEAC (1-0) | Morgan St (2-5/230) | MEAC (0-2) | NL | SCST 55.5% | NL |
| 2:00 | Howard (2-5/260) | MEAC (1-0) | Norfolk St (1-6/217) | MEAC (1-1) | NL | NFST 55.0% | NL |
| 2:00 | NC Central (5-2/157) | MEAC (1-1) | Delaware St (4-3/1-1) | MEAC (1-1) | NL | NCC 57.1% | NL |
| Mountain Valley Football Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 2:00 | South Dakota (2-5/209) | MVFC (1-3) | Youngstown St (4-3/188) | MVFC (2-2) | NL | YST 56.7% | NL |
| 3:00 | W Illinois (0-7/213) | MVFC (0-4) | Missouri St (2-5/223) | MVFC (0-4) | NL | MOST 55.2% | NL |
| 3:00 | N Iowa (4-4/196) | MVFC (3-2) | S Illinois (5-3/172) | MVFC (4-1) | NL | SILL 57.0% | NL |
| 3:00 | Indiana St (1-6/226) | MVFC (0-4) | South Dakota St (7-1/124) | MVFC (5-0) | NL | SDKS 63.7% | NL |
| 3:30 | Illinois St (5-2/164) | MVFC (3-1) | North Dakota St (5-2/153) | MVFC (3-1) | NL | NDST 56.0% | NL |
| 4:00 | Abilene Christian (5-2/161) | WAC (2-1) | North Dakota (4-3/191) | MVFC (3-2) | NL | ABCH 57.1% | NL |
| Northeast Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 12:00 | Long Island (0-7/219) | NEC (0-3) | Duquesne (2-5/247) | NEC (1-2) | NL | DUQ 55.2% | NL |
| 12:00 | Wagner (1-6/210) | NEC (1-2) | C Connecticut (0-7/228) | NEC (0-3) | NL | WAG 55.1% | NL |
| 12:00 | St Francis (5-2/156) | NEC (4-0) | Sacred Heart (4-3/186) | NEC (2-1) | NL | STFR 57.2% | NL |
| 1:00 | Merrimack (6-2/149) | NEC (4-0) | Stonehill (3-2/183) | NEC (1-2) | NL | MERR 57.4% | NL |
| Ohio Valley Football Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 2:00 | William Jewell (NR) | NR | Lindenwood (5-2/170) | OVFC (2-2) | NL | NP | NL |
| 3:00 | Tennessee Martin (4-3/177) | OVFC (3-0) | Houston Christian (2-5/256) | SLAN (1-3) | NL | TMAR 56.7% | NL |
| 3:00 | Tennessee St (3-4/218) | OVFC (2-0) | Murray St (0-8/208) | OVFC (0-3) | NL | TNST 55.5% | NL |
| 3:00 | Tennessee Tech (1-6/214) | OVFC (0-3) | E Illinois (2-5/254) | OVFC (1-2) | NL | EILL 55.2% | NL |
| Patriot League (FCS) | |||||||
| 12:30 | Georgetown (1-6/255) | PAT (0-3) | Lafayette (2-5/237) | PAT (1-1) | NL | LAF 55.3% | NL |
| 1:00 | Colgate (2-5/227) | PAT (1-1) | Bucknell (1-6/252) | PAT (1-2) | NL | COLG 55.1% | NL |
| 1:00 | Fordham (6-1/135) | PAT (2-0) | Holy Cross (7-0/87) | PAT (3-0) | NL | HC 61.8% | NL |
| IDLE | Lehigh (1-7/253) | ||||||
| Pioneer Football League (FCS) | |||||||
| 12:00 | Morehead St (2-5/236) | PFL (1-3) | Butler (5-2/163) | PFL (3-1) | NL | BUT 58.9% | NL |
| 12:00 | Presbyterian (1-7/238) | PFL (0-5) | Marist (2-5/258) | PFL (2-3) | NL | MAR 55.1% | NL |
| 1:00 | Drake (0-8/222) | PFL (0-5) | Stetson (3-3/203) | PFL (1-2) | NL | STET 56.2% | NL |
| 1:00 | Valparaiso (4-3/192) | PFL (3-1) | Dayton (5-2/169) | PFL (3-1) | NL | DAY 57.3% | NL |
| 2:00 | San Diego (3-3/200) | PFL (2-1) | St Thomas (6-1/131) | PFL (4-0) | NL | STTH 61.6% | NL |
| IDLE | Davidson (6-2/144) | ||||||
| Southern Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 1:30 | Mercer (6-2/143) | SoCon (4-1) | VMI (1-6/212) | SoCon (0-4) | NL | MERC 60.0% | NL |
| 1:30 | E Tennessee St (3-5/241) | SoCon (1-5) | Wofford (1-6/231) | SoCon (1-3) | NL | ETSU 55.2% | NL |
| 2:00 | Samford (6-1/132) | SoCon (4-0) | Citadel (2-5/240) | SoCon (2-3) | NL | SAM 60.8% | NL |
| 2:00 | Chattanooga (6-1/123) | SoCon (4-0) | Furman (6-2/142) | SoCon (4-1) | NL | CHAT 57.0% | NL |
| IDLE | W Carolina (3-5/224) | ||||||
| Southland Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 3:00 | Incarnate Word (7-1/107) | SLAN (3-1) | TAM Commerce (5-2/167) | SLAN (3-0) | NL | IW 60.0% | NL |
| 4:00 | Nicholls (2-6/234) | SLAN (2-2) | Lamar (0-7/225) | SLAN (0-3) | NL | NICH 55.1% | NL |
| 8:00 | SELA (4-3/179) | SLAN (1-1) | McNeese (1-6/221) | SLAN (0-3) | NL | SELA 56.9% | NL |
| OOC | Houston Christian (Tennessee Martin – OVFC) | ||||||
| IDLE | Northwestern St (3-5/245) | ||||||
| Southwestern Athletic Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 2:00 | Southern (5-2/162) | SWAC (3-1) | Jackson St (7-0/82) | SWAC (5-0) | NL | JACK 66.5% | NL |
| 3:00 | Alcorn St (3-4/201) | SWAC (2-2) | Grambling St (1-6/250) | SWAC (0-5) | NL | ACST 55.7% | NL |
| 3:00 | Bethune Cookman (2-5/249) | SWAC (2-2) | Prairie View (4-3/189) | SWAC (3-1) | NL | PV 56.7% | NL |
| 3:00 | Lincoln CA (NR) | NR | Texas Southern (3-4/206) | SWAC (3-2) | NL | NP | NL |
| 3:30 | Alabama St (4-3/182) – N | SWAC (2-2) | Alabama A&M (3-4/199) | SWAC (3-1) | NL | ALST 56.1% | NL |
| 4:00 | Ark Pine Bluff (2-5/220) | SWAC (0-4) | Florida A&M (5-2/166) | SWAC (3-1) | NL | FLAM 58.8% | NL |
| IDLE | Mississippi Valley (0-8/211) | ||||||
| Western Athletic Conference (FCS) | |||||||
| 3:00 | Utah Tech (1-6/248) | WAC (0-3) | Steph F Austin (5-3/176) | WAC (3-1) | NL | SFA 58.1% | NL |
| 8:00 | Sam Houston (4-2/175) | WAC (2-0) | Tarleton (5-2/160) | WAC (1-1) | NL | TARL 56.2% | NL |
| OOC | Abilene Christian (5-2/161) | ||||||
| IDLE | S Utah (3-5/215) |
