G’s Expectation or Who Wins (and Who Covers) in Week 11

 

Happy Tuesday and welcome to what will undoubtedly be another wild week of college football. MACNation has already begun with 3 games on the docket tonight. E Michigan (5-4/117) is winning at Akron (1-8/111) 17-7 with 14:21 to go in the half (Vegas: EMI -5.5, GCR: EMI 60.6%, Cover: EMI). Miami OH (4-5/130) is hosting Ohio (6-3/78) in a scoreless tie with 7:03 to go in the first quarter (V: OHIO -2.5, G: OHIO 63.1%, C: OHIO). In just a few minutes, Ball St (5-4/102) invades Toledo (6-3/71) – (V: TOL -14.0, G: 63.1%, C: BLST).

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In all of D1 football this week, we have 129 games – the most in any week this year. In the FBS only BYU and UTEP are resting while just Incarnate Word, N Iowa, and Presbyterian are having a bye week in the FCS. Of those 129 games, 65 involve FBS teams and we have a Cover prediction for 64 of them.

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Speaking of that, we had a good week straight up last week going 43-17 (.717) in FBS games, 43-16 (.729) in FCS games, for a respectable 86-33 (.723) overall. That brings the FBS up to 311-140 (.690), the FCS 283-125 (.694), and the overall to 594-265 (.692) for the year. That is just 7.3 wins under the target .700 mark. Against the spread wasn’t quite as solid. Betting with the Vegas favorite for all FBS/FBS games last week had a 29-28 (.509) record which would have lost money for the 4th straight week. The GCR covers also came in 29-28 last week for our worst week of the year. Overall, the Vegas favorite comes in at a 117-146 (.445) rate while the GCR is still ok at 142-121 (.540) or 2.65 off the target of .550.

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Ohio scored to make it 7-0 with 1:46 in the first.

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This week’s FCS games of the week involve the top 4 teams in the Southern Conference. 3 of the teams are 5-1 in conference play while Samford (8-1/128) is 6-0. They take on Chattanooga (7-2/146) – SAM 57%. Furman (7-2/145) plays at Mercer (7-2/147) – MERC 55.5%. The traffic jam at the top could clear up (Samford remains perfect and the FUR/MERC winner at 1-loss) or become muddier (CHAT wins giving 3 1-conference-loss teams). Should be some good football.

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The Group of 5 often gets left out of the game of the week, but not anymore. Especially after last year’s Playoff appearance by Cincinnati (7-2/45) and even now when looking at bowl predictions, there is an assumption that the Bearcats will be the best team in the G5 and earn a New Year’s Six bowl. Liberty (8-1/20) just beat Arkansas on the road but have a fairly week schedule (120th). But in same conference as CIN, the Tulane Green Wave (8-1/18) are the highest GCR ranked team as well as in the polls. Their sole loss was 27-24 to Southern Miss (5-4/84) in Week 4 following a win at Kansas St (6-3/21). TULN has UCF (7-2/41) this week in the game of the week, followed by SMU (5-4/70), before closing the season at Cincinnati (and maybe in a rematch for the championship). UCF and CIN are tied for 2nd in the conference at 4-1 while TULN is 5-0. The loser of this game has a really tough road to the AAC Championship game. Vegas likes TULN -2.0 while the GCR has TULN 72.7% and to cover.

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There were a few choices for FBS game of the week: Alabama at Mississippi (GCR upset picking MISS to win outright), Washington at Oregon (ORE to cover), among others, but the one that jumped out at me (probably because as a lifelong South Carolina fan, I have a soft spot for the underdog), semi-overlooked TCU (the “other” undefeated FBS team behind Georgia, Ohio St, and Michigan) is heading to Austin to take on Texas (6-3/29). The Horned Frogs (9-0/4) have 2 more conference wins than anyone else in the Big 12 and could officially clinch a championship slot with a win. Texas is tied with Baylor and Kansas St at 4-2 and a loss puts them all but out of the big game. BTW, just for fun KSST and BAY are playing this weekend too meaning one of them will be 5-2 in conference (V: BAY -2.5, G: BAY 55.1%, C: BAY). But in the game of the week Vegas has Texas at -7.0 while the GCR has TCU to become 10-0 79.9% and to cover.

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While all that was going on: EMI over AKR 17-14 4:42 in the half, OHIO and MIAO are tied 7-7 13:06 in the half, and TOL leads BLST 7-0 6:50 in the first quarter.

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Without further ado, here are all 129 games for the week. Thanks for reading as always. If you have any questions, suggestions, or corrections, please comment. If you like what you see, please share with others so that we can continue to grow. We are on pace for our best year yet (measured in views) and that is all due to you, oh great and wonderful and sharing football fans. Thank you, G

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TimeAwayConf RecHomeConf RecVegasGCRTo Cover
   Atlantic Coast ConferencePower 5   
12:00Virginia Tech (2-7/101)ACC (1-5)Duke (6-3/47)ACC (3-2)DUKE -9.5DUKE 76.0%DUKE
12:00Pittsburgh (5-4/53)ACC (2-3)Virginia (3-6/59)ACC (1-5)PITT -4.0PITT 62.2%PITT
3:30Louisville (6-3/35)ACC (3-3)Clemson (8-1/6)ACC (6-0)CLEM -7.0CLEM 89.8%CLEM
3:30Boston College (2-7/88)ACC (1-5)NC St (7-2/15)ACC (3-2)NCST -19.5NCST 90.2%NCST
3:30Miami FL (4-5/91)ACC (2-3)Georgia Tech (4-5/58)ACC (3-3)GATC -1.5MIAF 55.5%MIAF
7:30UNC (8-1/11)ACC (5-0)Wake Forest (6-3/31)ACC (2-3)WAKE -3.5UNC -80.7%UNC
8:00Florida St (6-3/35)ACC (4-3)Syracuse (6-3/31)ACC (3-2)FSU -6.5FSU 55.5%SYR
   Big 12 ConferencePower 5   
12:00Oklahoma (5-4/48)B12 (2-4)West Virginia (3-6/75)B12 (1-5)OKLA -8.0OKLA 62.4%OKLA
3:30Iowa St (4-5/61)B12 (1-5)Oklahoma St (6-3/26)B12 (3-3)IAST -2.0OKST 69.3%OKST
7:00Kansas St (6-3/21)B12 (4-2)Baylor (6-3/43)B12 (4-2)BAY -2.5BAY 55.1%BAY
7:00Kansas (6-3/30)B12 (3-3)Texas Tech (4-5/51)B12 (2-4)TXTC -3.5KAN 68.0%KAN
7:30TCU (9-0/4)B12 (6-0)Texas (6-3/29)B12 (4-2)TEX -7.0TCU 79.9%TCU
    Big Ten ConferencePower 5   
12:00Indiana (3-6/62)B1G (1-5)Ohio St (9-0/2)B1G (6-0)OHST -40.0OHST 99.9%OHST
12:00Purdue (5-4/55)B1G (3-3)Illinois (7-2/16)B1G (4-2)ILL -6.5ILL 86.1%ILL
12:00Rutgers (4-5/83)B1G (1-5)Michigan St (4-5/33)B1G (2-4)MIST -10.0MIST 56.2%RUTG
3:30Nebraska (3-6/96)B1G (2-4)Michigan (9-0/3)B1G (6-0)MICH -29.5MICH 99.9%MICH
3:30Maryland (6-3/40)B1G (3-3)Penn St (7-2/13) B1G (4-2)PSU -10.0PSU 72.1%PSU
3:30Northwestern (1-8/66)B1G (1-5)Minnesota (6-3/39)B1G (3-3)MINN -17.5MINN 78.7%MINN
3:30Wisconsin (5-4/50)B1G (3-3)Iowa (5-4/37)B1G (3-3)WISC -1.5WISC 56.0%WISC
   Pac 12 ConferencePower 5   
FRIColorado (1-8/65)P12 (1-5)Southern Cal (8-1/9)P12 (6-1)SCAL -34.0SCAL 99.9%SCAL
3:30Arizona St (3-6/68)P12 (2-4)Washington St (5-4/54)P12 (2-4)WAST -7.5WAST 63.7%WAST
7:00Washington (7-2/23)P12 (4-2)Oregon (8-1/10)P12 (6-0)ORE -13.0ORE 75.0%ORE
9:00California (3-6/76)P12 (1-5)Oregon St (6-3/28)P12 (3-3)ORST -14.0ORST 74.4%ORST
10:00Stanford (3-6/42)P12 (1-6)Utah (7-2/17)P12 (5-1)UTAH -23.0UTAH 87.4%UTAH
10:30Arizona (3-6/63)P12 (1-5)UCLA (8-1/7)P12 (5-1)UCLA -19.5UCLA 99.9%UCLA
   Southeastern ConferencePower 5   
12:00Missouri (4-5/72)SEC (2-4)Tennessee (8-1/5)SEC (4-1)TENN -20.5TENN 99.9%TENN
12:00LSU (7-2/14)SEC (5-1)Arkansas (5-4/52)SEC (2-3)LSU -3.0LSU 76.2%LSU
12:00Vanderbilt (3-6/57)SEC (0-5)Kentucky (6-3/24)SEC (3-3)KENT -18.0KENT 73.3%VAND
3:30Alabama (7-2/12)SEC (4-2)Mississippi (8-1/8)SEC (4-1)ALA -12.5MISS 70.7%MISS
4:00South Carolina (6-3/46)SEC (3-3)Florida (5-4/44)SEC (2-4)FLA -8.5SCAR 62.9%SCAR
7:00Georgia (9-0/1)SEC (6-0)Mississippi St (6-3/32)SEC (3-3)GEO -16.5GEO 99.9%GEO
7:30Texas A&M (3-6/60)SEC (1-5)Auburn (3-6/36)SEC (1-5)AUB -2.0TAM 55.1%TAM
   American Athletic ConferenceGroup of 5   
THUTulsa (3-6/99)AAC (1-4)Memphis (4-5/97)AAC (2-4)MEM -6.5MEM 57.4%TULS
FRIEast Carolina (6-3/64)AAC (3-2)Cincinnati (7-2/45)AAC (4-1)CIN -5.0CIN 66.9%CIN
12:00Notre Dame (6-3/19) – NIND (1-0)Navy (3-6/116) – NAAC (3-4)ND -16.5ND 71.2%NAVY
12:00SMU (5-4/70)AAC (3-2)South Florida (1-8/98)AAC (0-5)SMU -17.5SMU 61.5%SFLA
3:00Temple (3-6/141)AAC (1-4)Houston (5-4/79)AAC (3-2)HOU -21.5HOU 61.9%TEMP
3:30UCF (7-2/41)AAC (4-1)Tulane (8-1/18)AAC (5-0)TULN -2.0TULN 72.7%TULN
   Conference USAGroup of 5   
2:00Rice (5-4/100)CUSA (3-2)W Kentucky (6-4/89)CUSA (4-2)WKY -13.5WKY 58.7%RICE
3:30Charlotte (2-8/133)CUSA (1-5)Middle Tennessee (4-5/124)CUSA (1-4)MTSU -10.5MTSU 58.3%CHAR
3:30LA Tech (3-6/106)CUSA (2-3)UTSA (7-2/49)CUSA (5-0)UTSA -18.0UTSA 77.8%UTSA
3:30North Texas (6-4/85)CUSA (5-1)UAB (4-5/103)CUSA (2-4)UAB -5.5NTEX 60.4%NTEX
7:00FAU (4-5/108)CUSA (3-2)FIU (4-5/132)CUSA (2-3)FAU -16.0FAU 55.6%FIU
Idle  UTEP (4-6/137)    
   Mid American ConferenceGroup of 5   
TUEE Michigan (5-4/117)MAC (2-3)Akron (1-8/111)MAC (0-5)EMI -5.5EMI 60.5%EMI
TUEOhio (6-3/78)MAC (4-1)Miami OH (4-5/130)MAC (2-3)OHIO -2.5OHIO 63.1%OHIO
TUEBall St (5-4/102)MAC (3-2)Toledo (6-3/71)MAC (4-1)TOL -14.0TOL 63.1%BLST
WEDN Illinois (2-7/138)MAC (1-4)W Michigan (3-6/119)MAC (2-3)WMI -0.5WMI 56.0%WMI
WEDBuffalo (5-4/73)MAC (4-1)C Michigan (3-6/122)MAC (2-3)CMI -1.0BUFF 60.6%BUFF
WEDKent St (3-6/95)MAC (2-3)Bowling Green (5-4/92)MAC (4-1)KTST -2.5BG 60.7%BG
   Mountain West ConferenceGroup of 5   
FRIFresno St (5-4/82)MWC (4-1)UNLV (4-5/121)MWC (2-3)FRST -9.5FRST 59.0%UNLV
3:30New Mexico (2-7/127)MWC (0-5)Air Force (6-3/74)MWC (2-3)AF -21.5AF 72.0%NMEX
7:00Wyoming (6-3/77)MWC (4-1)Colorado St (2-7/114)MWC (2-3)WYO -9.0WYO 65.6%WYO
10:30Boise St (6-3/67)MWC (5-0)Nevada (2-7/140)MWC (0-5)BOST -20.5BOST 67.8%NEV
10:30San Jose St (6-2/56)MWC (4-1)San Diego St (5-4/104)MWC (3-2)SJST -2.5SJST 60.1%SJST
11:00Utah St (4-5/112)MWC (3-2)Hawaii (2-8/136)MWC (1-4)UTST -11.0UTST 57.3%HAW
   Sun Belt ConferenceGroup of 5   
THUGa Southern (5-4/87)SUN (2-3)Louisiana (4-5/110)SUN (2-4)LAU -3.0GASO 58.5%GASO
1:00ULM (3-6/107)SUN (2-3)Georgia St (4-5/94)SUN (3-2)GAST -13.5GAST 57.6%ULM
1:00James Madison (5-3/81)SUN (3-2)Old Dominion (3-6/115)SUN (2-3)JMU -7.5JMU 64.2%JMU
3:00UMASS (1-8/113)IND (0-3)Arkansas St (2-7/123)SUN (1-5)ARST -17.0ARST 55.1%UMAS
3:30Army (3-5/109)IND (0-0)Troy (7-2/34)SUN (5-1)TROY -9.0TROY 77.8%TROY
3:30App St (5-4/86)SUN (2-3)Marshall (5-4/80)SUN (2-3)APST -1.5MARS 55.3%MARS
5:00Texas St (3-6/125)SUN (1-4)South Alabama (7-2/38)SUN (4-1)SALA -16.5SALA 81.8%SALA
7:30Southern Miss (5-4/84)SUN (3-2)Coastal Carolina (8-1/27)SUN (5-1)CCAR -7.5CCAR 83.8%CCAR
   IndependentsGroup of 5Notre DamePower 5 
12:00Liberty (8-1/20)IND (2-0)UCONN (5-5/90)IND (1-0)LIB -14.5LIB 83.7%LIB
4:00Lamar (1-8/242)SLAN (1-4)New Mexico St (3-5/154)IND (1-0)NLNMST 56.7%NL
OOC  Notre Dame (NAVY – AAC), UMASS (ARST – SUN), Army (TROY – SUN)    
IDLE  BYU (5-5/69)    
   Atlantic SunFCS   
1:00Austin Peay (6-3/166)ASUN (2-2)Kennesaw St (5-4/180)ASUN (1-2)NLAP 56.5%NL
2:00E Kentucky (6-3/163)ASUN (2-1)Jacksonville St (7-2/153)ASUN (3-0)NLJAX 57.5%NL
5:00C Arkansas (4-5/191)ASUN (3-1)Steph F Austin (5-4/189)WAC (3-2)NLSFA 56.0%NL
5:00Tennessee Tech (3-6/201)OVFC (2-3)N Alabama (1-8/253)ASUN (0-5)NLTNTC 55.3%NL
   Big Sky ConferenceFCS   
FRISacramento St (9-0/118)BSKY (6-0)Portland St (4-5/190)BSKY (3-3)NLSAC 64.0%NL
2:00N Arizona (3-6/250)BSKY (2-4)N Colorado (2-7/226)BSKY (1-5)NLNAZ 55.2%NL
3:00E Washington (2-7/200)BSKY (1-5)Montana (6-3/165)BSKY (3-3)NLMONT 58.7%NL
3:00Idaho St (1-8/233)BSKY (1-5)Weber St (7-2/143)BSKY (4-2)NLWEB 61.5%NL
7:00UC Davis (5-4/170)BSKY (4-2)Idaho (6-3/162)BSKY (5-1)NLID 56.8%NL
8:00Montana St (8-1/135)BSKY (6-0)Cal Poly (1-8/244)BSKY (0-6)NLMTST 62.0%NL
   Big South ConferenceFCS   
12:00Charleston Southern (2-7/225)BSO (2-2)NC A&T (6-3/171)BSO (3-0)NLNCAT 58.1%NL
12:00Bryant (3-6/255)BSO (1-3)Holy Cross (9-0/105)PAT (5-0)NLHC 67.6%NL
1:00Gardner Webb (4-5/181)BSO (3-0)Campbell (4-5/197)BSO (2-2)NLCAMP 55.5%NL
2:00Robert Morris (0-9/203)BSO (0-4)Murray St (1-8/209)OVFC (1-3)NLRM 55.0%NL
   Colonial Athletic AssociationFCS   
12:00Maine (2-7/257)CAA (2-4)Albany (2-7/238)CAA (1-5)NLALB 55.0%NL
1:00Richmond (7-2/148)CAA (5-1)Delaware (7-2/142)CAA (4-2)NLDEL 55.6%NL
1:00Rhode Island (6-3/168)CAA (4-2)New Hampshire (6-3/174)CAA (5-1)NLRI 55.4%NL
1:00Towson (4-5/205)CAA (2-4)Stony Brook (2-7/235)CAA (1-5)NLTOW 55.5%NL
1:00Villanova (5-4/185)CAA (3-3)William & Mary (8-1/131)CAA (5-1)NLW&M 61.6%NL
1:00Elon (7-3/161)CAA (5-2)Hampton (4-5/211)CAA (1-5)NLELON 57.9%NL
Idle  Monmouth (4-6/234)    
   Ivy LeagueFCS   
12:00Princeton (8-0/129)IVY (5-0)Yale (6-2/160)IVY (4-1)NLPRIN 58.6%NL
1:00Columbia (4-4/196)IVY (1-4)Brown (3-5/220)IVY (1-4)NLCOLA 55.6%NL
1:00Harvard (5-3/175)IVY (3-2)Penn (7-1/139)IVY (4-1)NLPENN 60.5%NL
1:00Dartmouth (2-6/249)IVY (1-4)Cornell (4-4/199)IVY (1-4)NLCORN 56.2%NL
   Mid-Eastern Athletic ConfFCS   
1:00South Carolina St (3-6/194)MEAC (1-2)Howard (3-6/254)MEAC (2-1)NLSCST 55.0%NL
2:00NC Central (7-2/152)MEAC (3-1)Norfolk St (1-8/215)MEAC (1-2)NLNCC 59.8%NL
2:00Morgan St (3-6/243)MEAC (1-2)Delaware St (5-4/188)MEAC (2-2)NLDEST 56.5%NL
   Mountain Valley Football ConfFCS   
1:00South Dakota (3-6/206)MVFC (2-4)North Dakota (6-3/178)MVFC (4-2)NLNDAK 57.4%NL
2:00Indiana St (1-8/219)MVFC (0-6)W Illinois (0-9/204)MVFC (0-6)NLWILL 55.0%NL
2:00North Dakota St (7-2/144)MVFC (5-1)S Illinois (5-4/182)MVFC (4-2)NLNDST 58.7%NL
3:00Youngstown St (6-3/173)MVFC (4-2)Missouri St (3-6/223)MVFC (1-5)NLYST 57.0%NL
3:00Illinois St (5-4/183)MVFC (3-3)South Dakota St (9-1/126)MVFC (7-0)NLSDKS 62.7%NL
Idle  N Iowa (5-5/195)    
   Northeast ConferenceFCS   
12:00Merrimack (7-2/157)NEC (5-0)C Connecticut (1-8/252)NEC (1-4)NLMERR 59.5%NL
12:00Duquesne (3-6/227)NEC (2-3)St Francis (7-2/150)NEC (5-0)NLSTFR 61.1%NL
12:00Sacred Heart (4-5/212)NEC (2-3)Wagner (1-8/217)NEC (1-4)NLSH 55.5%NL
1:00Stonehill (4-3/187)NEC (2-3)Long Island (2-7/245)NEC (2-3)NLSTON 56.4%NL
   Ohio Valley Football ConfFCS   
2:00McKendree (NR)NRLindenwood (6-3/172)OVFC (2-3)NLNPNL
3:00SEMO (7-2/149)OVFC (3-0)E Illinois (2-7/261)OVFC (1-3)NLSEMO 59.8%NL
5:00Tennessee Martin (5-4/176)OVFC (3-0)Tennessee St (3-6/258)OVFC (2-2)NLTMAR 56.4%NL
OOC  Murray St (RM – BSO), Tennessee Tech (NALA – ASUN)    
   Patriot LeagueFCS   
12:00Colgate (3-6/239)PAT (2-2)Lehigh (1-8/241)PAT (1-3)NLCOLG 55.2%NL
12:30Bucknell (1-8/247)PAT (1-4)Georgetown (2-7/259)PAT (1-3)NLBUCK 55.0%NL
1:00Lafayette (3-6/231)PAT (2-2)Fordham (7-2/155)PAT (3-1)NLFORD 60.5%NL
OOC  Holy Cross (BRY – BSO)    
   Pioneer Football LeagueFCS   
12:00Valparaiso (4-5/210)PFL (3-3)Marist (4-5/221)PFL (4-3)NLMAR 55.1%NL
1:00Morehead St (2-7/228)PFL (1-5)Dayton (7-2/159)PFL (5-1)NLDAY 60.4%NL
2:00Butler (7-2/156)PFL (5-1)Drake (1-8/232)PFL (1-5)NLBUT 59.5%NL
2:00Stetson (3-5/229)PFL (1-4)St Thomas (8-1/134)PFL (6-0)NLSTTH 63.7%NL
5:00Davidson (7-2/151)PFL (5-1)San Diego (3-5/240)PFL (2-3)NLDAV 59.5%NL
IDLE  Presbyterian (1-9/224)    
   Southern ConferenceFCS   
1:00W Carolina (4-5/208)SoCon (2-4)E Tennessee St (3-6/260)SoCon (1-6)NLWCAR 55.4%NL
1:30VMI (1-8/202)SoCon (0-6)Wofford (2-7/246)SoCon (2-4)NLWOFF 55.3%NL
1:30Samford (8-1/128)SoCon (6-0)Chattanooga (7-2/146)SoCon (5-1)NLSAM 57.0%NL
2:00Lynchburg (NR)NRCitadel (2-7/230)SoCon (2-5)NLNPNL
3:00Furman (7-2/145)SoCon (5-1)Mercer (7-2/147)SoCon (5-1)NLMERC 55.5%NL
   Southland ConferenceFCS   
3:00McNeese (2-7/222)SLAN (0-4)Houston Christian (2-7/258)SLAN (1-4)NLHOCH 55.3%NL
4:00TAM Commerce (5-4/192)SLAN (3-2)Nicholls (2-7/213)SLAN (2-3)NLTCOM 56.2%NL
7:00Northwestern St (4-5/218)SLAN (4-0)SELA (6-3/164)SLAN (3-1)NLSELA 58.0%NL
OOC  Lamar (NMST – IND)    
IDLE  Incarnate Word (9-1/120)    
   Southwestern Athletic ConfFCS   
3:00Florida A&M (7-2/158)SWAC (5-1)Alabama St (6-3/167)SWAC (4-2)NLFLAM 56.5%NL
3:00Bethune Cookman (2-7/251)SWAC (2-4)Alcorn St (4-5/198)SWAC (3-3)NLACST 55.8%NL
3:00Prairie View (5-4/186)SWAC (4-2)Ark Pine Bluff (2-7/236)SWAC (0-6)NLPV 56.3%NL
3:00Mississippi Valley (1-8/216)SWAC (1-5)Southern (5-4/184)SWAC (3-3)NLSOUT 56.7%NL
5:00Alabama A&M (3-6/214)SWAC (3-3)Jackson St (9-0/93)SWAC (7-0)NLJACK 70.7%NL
7:00Grambling St (3-6/248)SWAC (2-5)Texas Southern (4-5/193)SWAC (3-3)NLTXSO 55.6%NL
   Western Athletic ConferenceFCS   
1:00Abilene Christian (6-3/169)WAC (3-1)Sam Houston (5-2/170)WAC (3-0)NLSHOU 55.2%NL
3:00Tarleton (5-4/177)WAC (1-3)Utah Tech (3-6/237)WAC (2-3)NLTARL 56.2%NL
3:00Lincoln CA (NR)NRS Utah (3-6/207)WAC (1-4)NLNPNL
OOC  Steph F Austin (CARK – ASUN)    

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