G’s Expectation or Who Wins and Who Loses in Week 9?

Happy Tuesday and welcome back to college football! There are a couple of games tonight as Conference USA is winding down its midweek games as we get ready for MACNation to take over in November. Tonight New Mexico St (5-3/85) is visiting Ruston, Louisiana to take on LA Tech (3-5/146) and in fact are playing right now. LA Tech just took the lead 3-0 almost halfway through the first quarter. Vegas thinks they will hold on to that lead (actually -2.5), but the GCR sees the Aggies winning on the road 64%. Our second game tonight kicking off at 7:30 (all times Eastern) pits W Kentucky (4-3/74) hosting undefeated Liberty (7-0/12). The Flames are favored to remain perfect over the Hilltoppers -3.5 and the GCR agrees with Liberty 77% and to cover.

…..

OK, let’s get the good and bad news out of the way. First, the good. The GCR had a great week predicting the FCS games. These games have been a thorn in my side since I started the predictions. Whereas in the FBS (Power 5 and Group of 5), I’d like to pick the winner around 72.5% of the time, I lower that expectation to 62.5% at the lower level. This week, the FCS predictions landed at 37-18 (.673) bringing the season up to 206-123 (.626). The ho-hum news is the FBS straight up (just who wins the game) predictions were 39-15 (.722) to bring the season to a semi-respectable 329-117 (.738). The GCR has not had a good year against the spread this year at all. A horrible 26-28 (.481) week brought us to a pathetic 171-159 (.518) for the year. I am a South Carolina Gamecock fan and hope does spring eternal, but this season isn’t looking good for either.

…..

This week, I’m spotlighting just 2 co-Game of the Week games. First, at 2:00 on Saturday, South Dakota (6-1/122) hosts it’s in-state rival and last remaining undefeated FCS team (7-0/87). Both of these teams are 4-0 in the Missouri Valley Football Conference with only N Iowa (4-3/175) having a single conference loss, so this game is likely for the championship. When South Dakota has the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating of 99 (140th in the nation). That means they score 9.9 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally score. They face a Jackrabbit Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 214 (4th) meaning they give up 10.0 points for every 21.4 points their opponents normally score. When State is on offense, an OER of 149 (16th) faces a Coyote DER of 177 (16th). There is no Vegas line yet, but the GCR has South Dakota St to win at 70%.

…..

LA Tech now leads New Mexico St 9-3 with 11:35 in the 2nd. W Kentucky is up early over Liberty 7-0 with 8:50 in the first.

…..

Our next game for this weekend, with a 3:30 kickoff, is Oregon (6-1/11) at Utah (6-1/16). This is a Pac 12 matchup that could decide who plays in the championship game. Washington (7-0/6) is a perfect 4-0 in conference, but Oregon and Utah are tied with Oregon St (6-1/15) at 3-1 while Southern Cal (6-2/24) is 4-1. In this year’s toughest conference, it will be who can survive these tough games that may lead to a Playoff spot. Oregon is 12th in OER at 152 and will face a blistering Ute DER of 206 (6th). Utah isn’t a big scorer with an OER of just 96 (151) and will face a difficult Duck DER of 185 (10th). Vegas has Oregon winning -5.0 and the GCR agrees 65% adn to cover.

…..

Liberty has tied the game up 7-7 with 5:55 in the first.

…..

There are tons of great games out there and I hope your team does well, unless they are playing mine (that’s the South Carolina Gamecocks, the Chattanooga Mocs, and the Presbyterian Blue Hose). Thanks for reading and sharing, G

…..

Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team
(Record/GCR Rank)
Conf (Rec)Vegas LineGCR to WinGCR to Cover
   ACC (14 teams)P5   
THU 7:30Syracuse (4-3/57)ACC (0-3)Virginia Tech (3-4/79)ACC (2-1)VT-3.0SYR 62%SYR
12:00UCONN (1-6/131)IND (0-0)Boston College (4-3/61)ACC (2-2)BC-12.0BC 67%BC
12:00Florida St (7-0/4)ACC (5-0)Wake Forest (4-3/83)ACC (1-3)FSU-20.0FSU 97%FSU
2:00Clemson (4-3/46)ACC (2-3)NC St (4-3/64)ACC (1-2)CLEM-10.0CLEM 57%NCST
3:30Duke (5-2/22)ACC (2-1)Louisville (6-1/18)ACC (3-1)LOU-4.0LOU 74%LOU
3:30Virginia (2-5/77)ACC (1-2)Miami FL (5-2/32)ACC (1-2)MIAF-18.0MIAF 83%MIAF
3:30Pittsburgh (2-5/111)ACC (1-3)Notre Dame (6-2/21)IND (0-0)ND-18.0ND 89%ND
8:00North Carolina (6-1/19)ACC (3-1)Georgia Tech (3-4/66)ACC (2-2)NCAR-11.5NCAR 90%NCAR
Idle  none    
   Big 12 (14 teams)P5   
12:00Oklahoma (7-0/3)B12 (4-0)Kansas (5-2/35)B12 (2-2)OKLA-10.0OKLA 92%OKLA
12:00Houston (3-4/99)B12 (1-3)Kansas St (5-2/25)B12 (3-1)KSST-16.5KSST 81%KSST
12:00West Virginia (4-3/62)B12 (2-2)UCF (3-4/72)B12 (0-4)UCF-7.0WVU 61%WVU
3:30BYU (5-2/43)B12 (2-2)Texas (6-1/8)B12 (3-1)TEX-17.5TEX 86%TEX
3:30Iowa St (4-3/42)B12 (3-1)Baylor (3-4/93)B12 (2-2)IAST-1.5IAST 62%IAST
8:00Cincinnati (2-5/95)B12 (0-4)Oklahoma St (5-2/40)B12 (3-1)OKST-7.5OKST 78%OKST
OOC  none    
Idle  TCU (4-4/75), Texas Tech (3-5/86)    
   Big Ten (14 teams)P5   
12:00Indiana (2-5/65)B10 (0-4)Penn St (6-1/7)B10 (3-1)PSU-31.0PSU 94%PSU
12:00Maryland (5-2/37)B10 (2-2)Northwestern (3-4/78)B10 (1-3)MARY-13.0MARY 76%MARY
3:30Michigan St (2-5/54)B10 (0-4)Minnesota (4-3/48)B10 (2-2)MINN-7.0MINN 65%MINN
3:30Purdue (2-5/76)B10 (1-3)Nebraska (4-3/58)B10 (2-2)NEB-2.5NEB 66%NEB
7:30Ohio St (7-0/2)B10 (4-0)Wisconsin (5-2/34)B10 (3-1)OHST-14.0OHST 87%OHST
OOC  none    
Idle  Michigan (8-0/1), Rutgers (6-2/26), Illinois (3-5/81), Iowa (6-2/27)    
   Pac 12 (12 teams)P5   
3:30Oregon (6-1/11)P12 (3-1)Utah (6-1/16)P12 (3-1)ORE-5.0ORE 65%ORE
4:00Southern Cal (6-2/24)P12 (4-1)California (3-4/68)P12 (1-3)SCAL-10.0SCAL 80%SCAL
7:00Washington (7-0/6)P12 (4-0)Stanford (2-5/88)P12 (1-4)WASH-26.0WASH 98%WASH
7:30Colorado (4-3/63)P12 (1-3)UCLA (5-2/29)P12 (2-2)UCLA-17.0UCLA 72%UCLA
8:00Washington St (4-3/56)P12 (1-3)Arizona St (1-6/89)P12 (0-4)WAST-6.5WAST 65%WAST
10:30Oregon St (6-1/15)P12 (3-1)Arizona (4-3/53)P12 (2-2)ORST-3.5ORST 86%ORST
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   SEC (14 teams)P5   
12:00South Carolina (2-5/50)SEC (1-4)Texas A&M (4-3/52)SEC (2-2)TAM-14.0TAM 69%TAM
3:30Georgia (7-0/5) – NSEC (4-0)Florida (5-2/39) – NSEC (3-1)GEO-14.5GEO 78%GEO
3:30Mississippi St (4-3/67)SEC (1-3)Auburn (3-4/70)SEC (0-4)AUB-7.0MSST 61%MSST
7:00Tennessee (5-2/30)SEC (2-2)Kentucky (5-2/36)SEC (2-2)TENN-3.5TENN 57%TENN
7:30Vanderbilt (2-6/83)SEC (0-4)Mississippi (6-1/13)SEC (3-1)MISS-25.5MISS 96%MISS
OOC  none    
Idle  Alabama (7-1/9), Arkansas (2-6/80), LSU (6-2/20), Missouri (7-1/17)    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
FRI 7:30FAU (3-4/118)AAC (2-1)Charlotte (2-5/129)AAC (1-2)FAU-6.0FAU 57%CHAR
12:00Tulsa (3-4/103)AAC (1-2)SMU (5-2/44)AAC (3-0)SMU-19.5SMU 76%SMU
3:00Memphis (5-2/60)AAC (2-1)North Texas (3-4/125)AAC (1-2)MEM-7.5MEM 67%MEM
3:30East Carolina (1-6/128)AAC (0-3)UTSA (4-3/91)AAC (3-0)UTSA-18.0UTSA 64%ECAR
4:00Tulane (6-1/28)AAC (3-0)Rice (4-3/90)AAC (2-1)TULN-11.0TULN 77%TULN
OOC  none    
Idle  Navy (3-4/110), South Florida (4-4/107), Temple (2-6/144), UAB (2-6/104)    
   C-USA (9 teams)G5   
TUE 7:00New Mexico St (5-3/85)USA (3-1)LA Tech (3-5/146)USA (2-2)LATC-2.5NMST 64%NMST
TUE 7:30Liberty (7-0/12)USA (5-0)W Kentucky (4-3/74)USA (2-1)LIB-3.5LIB 77%LIB
WED 7:00Jacksonville St (6-2/47)USA (4-1)FIU (4-4/121)USA (1-4)JAX-8.0JAX 71%JAX
WED 8:00UTEP (2-6/127)USA (1-3)Sam Houston (0-7/98)USA (0-4)SHOU-3.5UTEP 52%UTEP
OOC  none    
Idle  Middle Tennessee (2-6/94)    
   FBS Independents (4 teams)G5 (ND-P5)   
12:00UMASS (1-7/109)IND (0-0)Army (2-5/134)IND (0-0)ARMY-10.0ARMY 55%UMASS
OOC  UCONN (Boston College-ACC), Notre Dame (Pittsburgh-ACC)    
Idle  none    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
1:00W Michigan (2-6/101)MAC (1-3)E Michigan (4-4/112)MAC (2-2)WMI-1.5EMI 60%EMI
3:30Miami OH (6-2/41)MAC (3-1)Ohio (6-2/45)MAC (3-1)OHIO-7.0OHIO 54%MIAO
OOC  none    
Idle  Akron (1-7/157), Ball St (2-6/117), Bowling Green (4-4/73), Buffalo (3-5/135), C Michigan (4-4/115), Kent St (1-7/141), N Illinois (4-4/100), Toledo (7-1/23)    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
5:30Wyoming (5-2/51)MWC (2-1)Boise St (3-4/108)MWC (2-1)BOST-5.0WYO 66%WYO
7:00Air Force (7-0/10)MWC (4-0)Colorado St (3-4/130)MWC (1-2)AF-11.5AF 93%AF
10:30New Mexico (3-4/139)MWC (1-2)Nevada (1-6/97)MWC (1-2)NEV-1.5NMEX 53%NMEX
10:30UNLV (6-1/38)MWC (3-0)Fresno St (6-1/31)MWC (2-1)FRST-9.0FRST 62%UNLV
11:59San Jose St (3-5/96)MWC (2-2)Hawaii (2-6/142)MWC (0-3)SJST-8.0SJST 57%HAW
OOC  none    
Idle  San Diego St (3-5/114), Utah St (3-5/105)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:30Georgia St (6-1/33)SUN (3-1)Ga Southern (5-2/55)SUN (2-1)GASO-2.5GAST 59%GAST
3:30Southern Miss (1-6/106)SUN (0-4)App St (3-4/113)SUN (1-2)APST-17.5APST 57%SMIS
5:00Arkansas St (3-4/119)SUN (1-2)ULM (2-5/140)SUN (0-4)ULM-2.0ARST 56%ARST
5:00Louisiana (4-3/92)SUN (1-2)South Alabama (4-3/69)SUN (2-1)SALA-10.0SALA 58%LAU
6:00Marshall (4-3/84)SUN (1-2)Coastal Carolina (4-3/71)SUN (2-2)MARS-3.5CCAR 56%CCAR
7:00Troy (5-2/49)SUN (2-1)Texas St (5-2/59)SUN (2-1)TROY-5.5TXST 55%TXST
8:00Old Dominion (4-3/102)SUN (3-1)James Madison (7-0/14)SUN (4-0)JMU-17.5JMU 91%JMU
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
3:00N Colorado (0-7/228)SKY (0-4)Montana (6-1/137)SKY (3-1)NLMONT 76%NL
4:00E Washington (3-4/200)SKY (2-2)Portland St (3-4/189)SKY (2-2)NLPTST 55%NL
4:00UC Davis (4-3/167)SKY (2-2)N Arizona (2-5/246)SKY (2-2)NLUCD 60%NL
4:00Montana St (6-1/116)SKY (4-0)Idaho (5-2/147)SKY (3-1)NLMTST 64%NL
9:00Idaho St (3-4/209)SKY (3-1)Sacramento St (5-2/156)SKY (2-2)NLSAC 65%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Cal Poly (3-5/238), Weber St (3-5/212)    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (10 teams)FCS   
12:00Tennessee Tech (2-5/248)BSOV (0-2)Robert Morris (2-5/234)BSOV (0-2)NLRM 52%NL
1:30Tennessee Martin (6-1/120)BSOV (3-0)Gardner Webb (3-4/210)BSOV (1-1)NLTMAR 72%NL
3:00Lindenwood (3-4/227)BSOV (1-2)Tennessee St (5-2/158)BSOV (1-1)NLTNST 64%NL
3:00SEMO (3-4/205)BSOV (3-0)Nicholls (3-3/182)SLAN (3-0)NLNICH 53%NL
4:00Bryant (3-4/204)BSOV (1-1)Charleston (3-4/208)BSOV (1-1)NLCHAR 51%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  E Illinois (5-3/163)    
   Colonial (15 teams)FCS   
1:00Albany (5-3/159)CAA (3-1)Maine (2-6/254)CAA (1-4)NLALB 63%NL
1:00Monmouth (3-4/206)CAA (2-2)William & Mary (4-3/174)CAA (2-2)NLW&M 60%NL
1:00New Hampshire (4-3/179)CAA (2-2)Rhode Island (4-4/187)CAA (2-3)NLNH 54%NL
1:00Delaware (6-1/123)CAA (4-0)Towson (3-4/203)CAA (2-2)NLDEL 71%NL
2:00North Carolina A&T (1-6/241)CAA (0-4)Hampton (3-4/215)CAA (1-3)NLHAMP 57%NL
2:00Stony Brook (0-7/221)CAA (0-5)Villanova (5-2/151)CAA (3-1)NLVILL 69%NL
3:30Campbell (4-3/171)CAA (3-2)Richmond (5-3/165)CAA (4-1)NLRICH 52%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Elon (4-4/185)    
   FCS Independent (1 team)FCS   
3:00Lincoln (NA)NAKennesaw St (1-5/253)FCSNLNLNL
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
FRI 7:00Brown (3-3/191)IVY (1-2)Penn (5-1/143)IVY (2-1)NLPENN 70%NL
12:00Columbia (2-4/244)IVY (0-3)Yale (3-3/190)IVY (1-2)NLYALE 58%NL
1:00Princeton (3-3/188)IVY (2-1)Cornell (3-3/194)IVY (2-1)NLPRIN 52%NL
4:00Dartmouth (3-3/193)IVY (2-1)Harvard (5-1/138)IVY (2-1)NLHARV 72%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
THU 7:30South Carolina St (3-4/230)MEAC (1-0)NC Central (6-1/136)MEAC (1-0)NLNCC 75%NL
12:00Howard (3-4/199)MEAC (1-0)Delaware St (1-6/247)MEAC (0-1)NLHOW 57%NL
2:00Morgan St (1-5/251)MEAC (0-1)Norfolk St (2-5/261)MEAC (0-1)NLMORG 51%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Missouri Valley (12 teams)FCS   
1:00N Iowa (4-3/175)MVC (3-1)Illinois St (4-3/169)MVC (2-2)NLILST 52%NL
2:00Indiana St (0-7/235)MVC (0-4)North Dakota (4-3/181)MVC (2-2)NLNDAK 61%NL
2:00Missouri St (3-4/197)MVC (2-2)Youngstown St (4-3/178)MVC (2-2)NLYST 58%NL
2:00South Dakota St (7-0/87)MVC (4-0)South Dakota (6-1/122)MVC (4-0)NLSDKS 70%NL
3:30Murray St (2-5/225)MVC (1-3)North Dakota St (5-2/149)MVC (2-2)NLNDST 69%NL
4:00S Illinois (5-2/153)MVC (2-2)W Illinois (0-7/219)MVC (0-4)NLSILL 65%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
THU 7:00Long Island (1-6/242)NEC (1-2)C Connecticut (3-4/239)NEC (1-2)NLCCON 51%NL
12:00Duquesne (4-3/170)NEC (3-0)Sacred Heart (1-7/257)NEC (1-4)NLDUQ 60%NL
12:00Stonehill (3-4/226)NEC (2-2)Wagner (2-5/236)NEC (2-2)NLSTON 53%NL
1:00Merrimack (4-3/177)NEC (3-1)St Francis (2-5/259)NEC (2-2)NLMERR 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
12:30Lafayette (6-1/133)PAT (2-0)Georgetown (4-4/192)PAT (2-1)NLLAF 70%NL
1:00Bucknell (2-5/218)PAT (0-3)Colgate (3-4/198)PAT (1-1)NLCOLG 57%NL
1:00Holy Cross (4-3/166)PAT (2-1)Fordham (5-2/152)PAT (1-1)NLFORD 53%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Lehigh (2-6/255)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
1:00Valparaiso (1-6/256)PFL (0-4)Butler (5-3/162)PFL (3-2)NLBUT 64%NL
1:00Stetson (3-4/220)PFL (1-3)Drake (4-3/184)PFL (4-0)NLDRAK 58%NL
2:00Marist (4-3/186)PFL (4-1)St Thomas (5-3/168)PFL (4-1)NLSTTH 54%NL
5:00Morehead St (3-4/217)PFL (2-2)San Diego (1-6/258)PFL (1-3)NLMHST 57%NL
7:00Presbyterian (3-4/233)PFL (1-3)Davidson (5-2/154)PFL (4-0)NLDAV 66%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Dayton (2-6/260)    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:30Chattanooga (6-2/145)SoCon (5-1)VMI (3-4/213)SoCon (2-2)NLCHAT 69%NL
2:00E Tennessee St (2-5/232)SoCon (1-3)Furman (6-1/132)SoCon (4-0)NLFUR 78%NL
2:30Mercer (5-3/160)SoCon (3-2)W Carolina (5-2/155)SoCon (3-1)NLWCAR 53%NL
3:00Citadel (0-7/222)SoCon (0-4)Samford (4-4/202)SoCon (3-3)NLSAM 58%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Wofford (0-8/229)    
   Southland (8 teams)FCS   
3:00Commerce (1-6/249)SLAN (1-2)Houston Christian (3-4/211)SLAN (1-2)NLHOCH 57%NL
4:00Incarnate Word (6-1/124)SLAN (3-0)Lamar (4-3/180)SLAN (3-0)NLIW 70%NL
8:00Northwestern St (0-6/223)SLAN (0-2)McNeese (0-7/207)SLAN (0-3)NLNWST 52%NL
OOC  Nicholls (SEMO-BSOV)    
Idle  SELA (1-7/240)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Mississippi Valley (1-6/252)SWAC (1-3)Alcorn St (4-3/183)SWAC (3-1)NLACST 61%NL
3:00Jackson St (5-3/161)SWAC (4-2)Ark Pine Bluff (1-6/250)SWAC (0-4)NLJACK 63%NL
3:00Bethune Cookman (1-6/224)SWAC (0-4)Grambling St (3-4/196)SWAC (2-2)NLGRAM 56%NL
3:30Alabama A&M (4-3/176) – NSWAC (2-2)Alabama St (3-3/201) – NSWAC (3-2)NLALAM 58%NL
4:00Prairie View (3-4/214)SWAC (3-1)Florida A&M (6-1/126)SWAC (5-0)NLFLAM 78%NL
5:00Texas Southern (2-5/216)SWAC (1-3)Southern (4-3/172)SWAC (3-3)NLSOUT 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
3:00Abilene Christian (4-3/173)UAC (2-1)S Utah (2-5/231)UAC (1-2)NLABCH 60%NL
4:00N Alabama (3-5/245)UAC (1-3)Austin Peay (5-2/148)UAC (2-0)NLAP 69%NL
5:00Tarleton (5-3/164)UAC (1-2)C Arkansas (5-2/150)UAC (3-0)NLCARK 54%NL
8:00E Kentucky (3-4/195)UAC (2-0)Utah Tech (2-5/243)UAC (1-1)NLEKY 61%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Steph F Austin (3-5/237)