G’s Expectation or Who Wins in Week 10

Happy All Hallows Eve and beware of the spookiness that is 2023 college football. While little ghosts and goblins are filling their plastic pumpkins with sugary treats, MACNation is alive and well with two games tonight. Both are playing right now as the G-SaxMan got off to a late start tonight. C Michigan (4-4/121) is beating N Illinois (4-4/96) 17-3 with 9:21 to go in the first half. Toledo (7-1/26) has jumped on top of Buffalo (3-5/136) 14-7 with 3:43 in the first quarter. More to come as we get through this post.

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We have a few games this week that will have an impact on conference championships. First in the ACC with a 3:30 (all times Eastern) kickoff, Virginia Tech (4-4/73) invades Louisville (7-1/15) with both teams having but a single loss in conference play. Every other ACC team has at least 2 conference losses as we move into November. Louisville should win this one, but the Hokies have had a bit of an unpredictable season. Vegas has the Cardinals -9.5, the GCR agrees at 87% and to cover.

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The Big 12 has two of these critical games. At noon on Saturday, Texas (7-1/8) hosts Kansas St (6-2/19) with both teams 4-1 in the conference (5-way tie for 1st). Vegas likes the Longhorns in a close one TEX-4.0, and the GCR agrees at 79% and to cover. Around the time this one finishes up, the battle for Oklahoma, hosted by Oklahoma St (6-2/32), takes over. Oklahoma (7-1/10) coming off of a last minute loss to Kansas (6-2/28), all but put the Big 12 out of the running for a playoff spot. Both of these teams are also 4-1 in the conference (Iowa St, who is playing Kansas, being the 5th). Vegas sees the Sooners in a single score game OKLA-6.0, and the GCR agrees 80% and to cover. (As a bonus, Iowa St is favored but the GCR likes Kansas so there could be just two 5-1 teams at the end of the week).

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The Pac 12 pits Washington (8-0/5) at Southern Cal (7-2/20) at 7:30. Both teams have 5 conference wins with the Trojans having a single loss (along with Oregon). Washington is trying to maintain consideration for the playoffs and a road win in Pasadena would certainly help. Vegas sees them remaining perfect WASH-3.5 and the GCR agrees 62% and to cover.

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C Michgan is up 24-3 with less than a minute in the half. Toledo now 21-3 with 14:11 in the half.

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The SEC is the game of the week. While Tennessee (6-2/23) and South Carolina (2-6/63) are playing UCONN (1-7/140) and Jacksonville St (7-2/37) for the first time ever, the battles for both the East and the West are the key games. At 3:30, Georgia (8-0/4) hosts Missouri (7-1/16) with the winner holding the top spot in the East. The Bulldogs are 5-0 in conference while the Tigers are 3-1. The rest of the East has at least two losses so the winner grabs the reins. Vegas has GEO-15.5 and the GCR agrees at 68% but look for Missouri to cover. In the west, kicking off at 7:45, LSU (6-2/18) invades Alabama (7-1/11). The Tide is 5-0 in conference and the Tigers are 4-1 (tied with Mississippi). Vegas likes ALA-3.0 and the GCR agrees 78% and to cover.

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BTW, speaking of teams that have never played before, Charlotte (2-6/145) is playing Tulsa (3-5/117) in a conference game. Charlotte used to play in Conference-USA and has never played a team from Oklahoma before, so this is a first ever game between conference foes. Just interesting.

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The Mountain West joins the fun with Boise St (4-4/90) traveling south to Fresno St (7-1/21) with a late 10:00 start. Both teams are 3-1 in the conference tied with UNLV for second place behind undefeated Air Force. A win boosts the chances of a championship opportunity. Vegas likes FRST-3.0 and the GCR agrees 89% and to cover.

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In the FCS, we have 2 games that fit the theme for today and have played more than 3 conference games. First in the Colonial with a 1:00 kickoff (every CAA game starts at 1:00 this week except Campbell at North Carolina which is yet another pair of teams that have never played before), Delaware (7-1/99), one of the best FCS teams this season hosts Elon (4-4/189). The Blue Hens are 5-0 in conference and Elon (who used to be the Fighting Christians when they were an NAIA team in the SAC-8), is 4-1. A loss by Elon eliminates them from playoff consideration and a win puts them in a great position to possibly win the conference. No Vegas line, but the GCR has Delaware to win 74%. And out last co-game of the week as all of these are, with a 1:30 start, Furman (7-1/109) travels to Chattanooga (7-2/125) vying for Southern Conference supremacy. The Paladins are 5-0 in conference and the Mocs are playing their final conference game (with an off week before taking on Alabama) with a 6-1 record. The winner clinches the conference. The GCR sees this one as a close one with FUR winning on the road 57% of the time.

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Last week the GCR was 38-16 (.704) picking the winners of FBS games bringing the season total to 367-133 (.734). Against the spread the GCR was a decent but still not good enough 30-24 (.556) making a sad 201-183 (.523) for the year. For the FCS, a respectable 39-19 (.672) picking the winners raised the season to 245-142 (.633).

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No change in the scores as Buffalo missed a field goal with 6:06 in the half. NILL/CMI are about to kick off the second half.

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Here are all the games. I wish you a great week of college football and hope your team does well, unless they are playing my team. Thanks for reading and sharing, G

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Away Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Home Team (Record/GCR Rank)Conf (Rec)Vegas LineGCR to WinGCR to Cover
   ACC (14 teams)P5   
THU 7:30Wake Forest (4-4/81)ACC (1-4)Duke (5-3/36)ACC (2-2)DUKE-12.5DUKE 67%DUKE
FRI 7:30Boston College (5-3/53)ACC (2-2)Syracuse (4-4/76)ACC (0-4)SYR-3.0BC 61%BC
12:00Notre Dame (7-2/17)IND (0-0)Clemson (4-4/59)ACC (2-4)ND-3.0ND 81%ND
12:00Campbell (4-4/192)CAA (3-3)North Carolina (6-2/33)ACC (3-2)NLNCAR>99%NL
2:00Georgia Tech (4-4/58)ACC (3-2)Virginia (2-6/80)ACC (1-3)VIR-2.5GT 60%GT
3:30Florida St (8-0/3)ACC (6-0)Pittsburgh (2-6/103)ACC (1-3)FSU-21.5FSU 94%FSU
3:30Virginia Tech (4-4/73)ACC (3-1)Louisville (7-1/15)ACC (4-1)LOU-9.5LOU 87%LOU
8:00Miami FL (6-2/27)ACC (2-2)NC St (5-3/54)ACC (2-2)MIAF-4.0MIAF 69%MIAF
Idle  none    
   Big 12 (14 teams)P5   
THU 7:00TCU (4-4/74)B12 (2-3)Texas Tech (3-5/87)B12 (2-3)TXTC-3.0TCU 58%TCU
12:00Kansas St (6-2/19)B12 (4-1)Texas (7-1/8)B12 (4-1)TEX-4.0TEX 79%TEX
3:30Oklahoma (7-1/10)B12 (4-1)Oklahoma St (6-2/32)B12 (4-1)OKLA-6.0OKLA 80%OKLA
3:30Houston (3-5/94)B12 (1-4)Baylor (3-5/111)B12 (2-3)BAY-4.5HOU 55%HOU
3:30UCF (3-5/86)B12 (0-5)Cincinnati (2-6/97)B12 (0-5)UCF-4.5UCF 57%UCF
7:00Kansas (6-2/28)B12 (3-2)Iowa St (5-3/42)B12 (4-1)IAST-2.5KAN 66%KAN
7:00BYU (5-3/55)B12 (2-3)West Virginia (5-3/50)B12 (3-2)WVU-10.0WVU 56%BYU
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big Ten (14 teams)P5   
12:00Ohio St (8-0/2)B10 (5-0)Rutgers (6-2/31)B10 (3-2)OHST-18.5OHST 96%OHST
12:00Wisconsin (5-3/44)B10 (3-2)Indiana (2-6/70)B10 (0-5)WISC-9.5WISC 68%WISC
12:00Nebraska (5-3/52)B10 (3-2)Michigan St (2-6/67)B10 (0-5)NEB-3.0NEB 68%NEB
3:30Penn St (7-1/6)B10 (4-1)Maryland (5-3/51)B10 (2-3)PSU-10.0PSU 74%PSU
3:30Illinois (3-5/82)B10 (1-4)Minnesota (5-3/49)B10 (3-2)MINN-2.0MINN 67%MINN
3:30Iowa (6-2/29) – NB10 (3-2)Northwestern (4-4/65) – NB10 (2-3)IOWA-5.0IOWA 75%IOWA
7:30Purdue (2-6/85)B10 (1-4)Michigan (8-0/1)B10 (5-0)MICH-32.5MICH 98%MICH
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Pac 12 (12 teams)P5   
2:00Arizona St (2-6/91)P12 (1-4)Utah (6-2/30)P12 (3-2)UTAH-11.0UTAH 82%UTAH
5:30California (3-5/77)P12 (1-4)Oregon (7-1/7)P12 (4-1)ORE-23.5ORE 93%ORE
7:30Washington (8-0/5)P12 (5-0)Southern Cal (7-2/20)P12 (5-1)WASH-3.5WASH 62%WASH
9:00Stanford (2-6/78)P12 (1-5)Washington St (4-4/69)P12 (1-4)WAST-13.0WAST 61%STAN
10:00Oregon St (6-2/24)P12 (3-2)Colorado (4-4/64)P12 (1-4)ORST-12.5ORST 77%ORST
10:30UCLA (6-2/25)P12 (3-2)Arizona (5-3/39)P12 (3-2)UCLA-1.5UCLA 67%UCLA
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   SEC (14 teams)P5   
12:00Texas A&M (5-3/41)SEC (3-2)Mississippi (7-1/13)SEC (4-1)MISS-3.0MISS 92%MISS
12:00UCONN (1-7/140)IND (0-0)Tennessee (6-2/23)SEC (3-2)TENN-36.0TENN 88%UCON
12:00Arkansas (2-6/89)SEC (0-5)Florida (5-3/48)SEC (3-2)FLA-5.5FLA 71%FLA
12:00Jacksonville St (7-2/37)USA (5-1)South Carolina (2-6/63)SEC (1-5)SCAR-15.5SCAR 54%JAX
3:30Missouri (7-1/16)SEC (3-1)Georgia (8-0/4)SEC (5-0)GEO-16.0GEO 68%MIZZ
4:00Auburn (4-4/60)SEC (1-4)Vanderbilt (2-7/88)SEC (0-5)AUB-13.0AUB 62%VAND
7:30Kentucky (5-3/45)SEC (2-3)Mississippi St (4-4/83)SEC (1-4)KENT-3.0KENT 64%KENT
7:45LSU (6-2/18)SEC (4-1)Alabama (7-1/11)SEC (5-0)ALA-3.0ALA 78%ALA
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   AAC (14 teams)G5   
2:00Navy (3-4/112)AAC (2-2)Temple (2-6/148)AAC (0-4)NAVY-7.5NAVY 57%TEMP
3:00FAU (4-4/105)AAC (3-1)UAB (2-6/102)AAC (1-3)FAU-1.0FAU 59%FAU
3:00UTSA (5-3/71)AAC (4-0)North Texas (3-5/139)AAC (1-3)UTSA-7.0UTSA 63%UTSA
3:00South Florida (4-4/110)AAC (2-2)Memphis (6-2/47)AAC (3-1)MEM-13.0MEM 71%MEM
3:30Tulane (7-1/22)AAC (4-0)East Carolina (1-7/141)AAC (0-4)TULN-16.5TULN 87%TULN
4:00Charlotte (2-6/145)AAC (1-3)Tulsa (3-5/117)AAC (1-3)TULS-3.5TULS 56%TULS
7:30SMU (6-2/35)AAC (4-0)Rice (4-4/95)AAC (2-2)SMU-10.5SMU 74%SMU
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   C-USA (9 teams)G5   
1:00Kennesaw St (2-5/257)FCSSam Houston (0-8/119)USA (0-5)NLSHOU 55%NL
6:00LA Tech (3-6/153)USA (2-3)Liberty (8-0/12)USA (6-0)LIB-17.0LIB 87%LIB
6:00Middle Tennessee (2-6/114)USA (1-3)New Mexico St (6-3/61)USA (4-1)NMST-3.0NMST 70%NMST
9:00W Kentucky (4-4/79)USA (2-2)UTEP (3-6/130)USA (2-3)WKY-11.0WKY 59%UTEP
OOC  none    
Idle  FIU (4-5/127)    
   FBS Independents (4 teams)G5 (ND-P5)   
2:30Army (2-6/151) – NIND (0-1)Air Force (8-0/9) – NMWC (5-0)AF-18.5AF 96%AF
3:30Merrimack (4-4/198)NEC (3-2)UMASS (2-7/124)IND (1-0)NLMERR 52%NL
OOC  Notre Dame (Clemson-ACC), UCONN (Tennessee-SEC)    
Idle  none    
   MAC (12 teams)G5   
TUE 7:00N Illinois (4-4/96)MAC (3-1)C Michigan (4-4/121)MAC (2-2)NILL-3.0CMI 54%CMI
TUE 7:30Buffalo (3-5/136)MAC (3-1)Toledo (7-1/26)MAC (4-0)TOL-15.0TOL 90%TOL
WED 7:00Ball St (2-6/126)MAC (1-3)Bowling Green (4-4/75)MAC (2-2)BG-5.5BG 60%BG
WED 7:30Kent St (1-7/149)MAC (0-4)Akron (1-7/171)MAC (0-4)AKR-4.5KTST 52%KTST
OOC  none    
Idle  E Michigan (4-5/128), Miami OH (7-2/34), Ohio (6-3/57), W Michigan (3-6/120)    
   Mountain West (12 teams)G5   
FRI 8:00Colorado St (3-5/134)MWC (1-3)Wyoming (5-3/62)MWC (2-2)WYO-7.0WYO 64%WYO
4:00Hawaii (2-7/152)MWC (0-4)Nevada (2-6/107)MWC (2-2)NEV-3.0NEV 54%NEV
6:00UNLV (6-2/46)MWC (3-1)New Mexico (3-5/146)MWC (1-3)UNLV-10.0UNLV 70%UNLV
7:00Utah St (3-5/108)MWC (1-3)San Diego St (3-5/123)MWC (1-3)UTST-2.5UTST 55%UTST
10:00Boise St (4-4/90)MWC (3-1)Fresno St (7-1/21)MWC (3-1)FRST-3.0FRST 89%FRST
OOC  Air Force (Army-IND)    
Idle  San Jose St (4-5/93)    
   Sun Belt (14 teams)G5   
THU 7:30South Alabama (4-4/84)SUN (2-2)Troy (6-2/38)SUN (3-1)TROY-5.0TROY 72%TROY
3:00Louisiana (5-3/72)SUN (2-2)Arkansas St (4-4/106)SUN (2-2)LAU-9.0LAU 60%LAU
3:30James Madison (8-0/14)SUN (5-0)Georgia St (6-2/43)SUN (3-2)JMU-5.5JMU 86%JMU
3:30Coastal Carolina (5-3/56)SUN (3-2)Old Dominion (4-4/98)SUN (3-2)CCAR-1.0CCAR 62%CCAR
4:00ULM (2-6/147)SUN (0-5)Southern Miss (1-7/122)SUN (0-5)SMIS-2.5ULM 53%ULM
6:00Marshall (4-4/92)SUN (1-3)App St (4-4/104)SUN (2-2)APST-3.5APST 56%APST
7:00Ga Southern (6-2/40)SUN (3-1)Texas St (5-3/68)SUN (2-2)GASO-2.0GASO 64%GASO
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big Sky (12 teams)FCS   
3:00Idaho (6-2/132)SKY (4-1)N Colorado (0-8/214)SKY (0-5)NLIDA 65%NL
3:00N Arizona (3-5/223)SKY (3-2)Montana St (6-2/129)SKY (4-1)NLMTST 68%NL
4:00Cal Poly (3-5/228)SKY (1-4)E Washington (3-5/217)SKY (2-3)NLEWA 51%NL
6:00Weber St (3-5/213)SKY (1-4)Idaho St (3-5/221)SKY (3-2)NLIDST 52%NL
7:00Portland St (4-4/182)SKY (3-2)UC Davis (4-4/185)SKY (2-3)NLPTST 51%NL
8:00Sacramento St (6-2/144)SKY (3-2)Montana (7-1/116)SKY (4-1)NLMONT 62%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Big South/Ohio Valley (10 teams)FCS   
1:00Gardner Webb (4-4/190)BSOV (2-1)Bryant (4-4/186)BSOV (2-1)NLBRY 51%NL
2:00Robert Morris (2-6/236)BSOV (0-3)SEMO (4-4/191)BSOV (3-0)NLSEMO 68%NL
2:30Tennessee Martin (6-2/135)BSOV (3-1)Tennessee Tech (3-5/233)BSOV (1-2)NLTMAR 63%NL
3:00E Illinois (5-3/168)BSOV (1-2)Lindenwood (3-5/240)BSOV (1-3)NLEILL 57%NL
4:00Tennessee St (6-2/150)BSOV (2-1)Charleston (3-5/224)BSOV (1-2)NLTNST 62%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Colonial (15 teams)FCS   
1:00Elon (4-4/189)CAA (4-1)Delaware (7-1/99)CAA (5-0)NLDEL 74%NL
1:00Hampton (4-4/199)CAA (2-3)Maine (2-7/258)CAA (1-5)NLHAMP 54%NL
1:00Stony Brook (0-8/209)CAA (0-6)Monmouth (3-5/227)CAA (2-3)NLMON 52%NL
1:00Villanova (6-2/137)CAA (4-1)New Hampshire (4-4/193)CAA (2-3)NLVILL 62%NL
1:00Towson (3-5/215)CAA (2-3)North Carolina A&T (1-7/235)CAA (0-5)NLTOW 51%NL
1:00William & Mary (5-3/167)CAA (3-2)Albany (6-3/154)CAA (4-1)NLALB 56%NL
OOC  Campbell (North Carolina-ACC)    
Idle  Rhode Island (5-4/179), Richmond (6-3/159)    
   FCS Independent (1 team)FCS   
   Kennesaw St (Sam Houston-USA)    
   Ivy League (8 teams)FCS   
Fri 7:00Princeton (4-3/177)IVY (3-1)Dartmouth (3-4/204)IVY (2-2)NLPRIN 54%NL
12:00Yale (4-3/176)IVY (2-2)Brown (4-3/178)IVY (2-2)NLYALE 50%NL
12:30Harvard (6-1/118)IVY (3-1)Columbia (2-5/252)IVY (0-4)NLHARV 69%NL
1:00Cornell (3-4/208)IVY (2-2)Penn (5-2/155)IVY (2-2)NLPENN 63%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   MEAC (6 teams)FCS   
1:00Delaware St (1-7/242)MEAC (0-2)Morgan St (2-5/249)MEAC (1-1)NLDEST 52%NL
3:30Howard (4-4/181)MEAC (2-0)South Carolina St (3-5/238)MEAC (1-1)NLHOW 65%NL
3:30Norfolk St (2-6/261)MEAC (0-2)NC Central (7-1/115)MEAC (2-0)NLNCC 94%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Missouri Valley (12 teams)FCS   
1:00Youngstown St (5-3/173)MVC (3-2)Indiana St (0-8/226)MVC (0-5)NLYST 57%NL
2:00North Dakota (5-3/174)MVC (3-2)Murray St (2-6/225)MVC (1-4)NLNDAK 57%NL
2:00South Dakota (6-2/143)MVC (4-1)S Illinois (6-2/133)MVC (3-2)NLSILL 54%NL
2:00W Illinois (0-8/205)MVC (0-5)N Iowa (5-3/169)MVC (4-1)NLNIA 60%NL
3:00Illinois St (4-4/188)MVC (2-3)Missouri St (3-5/210)MVC (2-3)NLILST 52%NL
3:00North Dakota St (6-2/131)MVC (3-2)South Dakota St (8-0/66)MVC (5-0)NLSDKS 80%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   Northeast (8 teams)FCS   
12:00C Connecticut (3-5/255)NEC (1-3)Sacred Heart (1-8/254)NEC (1-5)NLCCON 51%NL
12:00Duquesne (5-3/166)NEC (4-0)Wagner (3-5/229)NEC (3-2)NLDUQ 57%NL
12:00Long Island (2-6/245)NEC (2-2)St Francis (3-5/243)NEC (3-2)NLSTFR 52%NL
OOC  Merrimack (UMASS-IND)    
Idle  Stonehill (3-5/241)    
   Patriot League (7 teams)FCS   
12:00Holy Cross (5-3/161)PAT (3-1)Lehigh (2-6/256)PAT (1-2)NLHC 59%NL
12:30Colgate (3-5/219)PAT (1-2)Lafayette (7-1/113)PAT (3-0)NLLAF 74%NL
1:00Bucknell (3-5/203)PAT (1-3)Fordham (5-3/164)PAT (1-2)NLFORD 60%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Georgetown (4-5/206)    
   Pioneer League (11 teams)FCS   
12:00Drake (5-3/175)PFL (5-0)Marist (4-4/201)PFL (4-2)NLDRAK 52%NL
12:00San Diego (2-6/260)PFL (2-3)Presbyterian (3-5/248)PFL (1-4)NLPC 53%NL
1:00Davidson (6-2/142)PFL (5-0)Stetson (3-5/239)PFL (1-4)NLDAV 63%NL
2:00Dayton (2-6/259)PFL (0-5)Valparaiso (1-7/253)PFL (0-5)NLDAY 50%NL
2:00Butler (6-3/156)PFL (4-2)Morehead St (3-5/248)PFL (2-3)NLBUT 60%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  St Thomas (6-3/163)    
   SoCon (9 teams)FCS   
1:00VMI (3-5/216)SoCon (2-3)E Tennessee St (2-6/230)SoCon (1-4)NLVMI 52%NL
1:30Furman (7-1/109)SoCon (5-0)Chattanooga (7-2/125)SoCon (6-1)NLFUR 57%NL
2:00Mercer (6-3/158)SoCon (4-2)Citadel (0-8/218)SoCon (0-5)NLMERC 86%NL
3:00W Carolina (5-3/170)SoCon (3-2)Wofford (0-8/220)SoCon (0-5)NLWCAR 93%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Samford (5-4/184)    
   Southland (8 teams)FCS   
4:00Commerce (1-7/247)SLAN (1-3)Lamar (4-4/197)SLAN (3-1)NLLAM 56%NL
4:00McNeese (0-7/202)SLAN (0-3)SELA (1-7/237)SLAN (1-3)NLSELA 50%NL
4:00Nicholls (3-4/200)SLAN (3-0)Incarnate Word (7-1/100)SLAN (4-0)NLIW 76%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  Houston Christian (4-4/196), Northwestern St (0-6/212)    
   SWAC (12 teams)FCS   
THU 7:30Mississippi Valley (1-7/246)SWAC (1-4)Bethune Cookman (1-7/222)SWAC (0-5)NLBETH 51%NL
2:00Florida A&M (7-1/101)SWAC (6-0)Alabama A&M (4-4/195)SWAC (2-3)NLFLAM 70%NL
3:00Southern (5-3/165)SWAC (4-3)Alcorn St (5-3/172)SWAC (4-1)NLSOUT 53%NL
3:00Ark Pine Bluff (1-7/244)SWAC (0-5)Prairie View (3-5/211)SWAC (3-2)NLPV 52%NL
3:00Texas Southern (2-6/231)SWAC (1-4)Jackson St (6-3/157)SWAC (5-2)NLJACK 63%NL
5:00Grambling St (4-4/187)SWAC (3-2)Alabama St (4-3/180)SWAC (4-2)NLALST 51%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none    
   UAC (9 teams)FCS   
3:00Lincoln (NA)NAS Utah (3-5/207)UAC (2-2)NLNLNL
3:00Utah Tech (2-6/250)UAC (1-2)Abilene Christian (4-4/194)UAC (2-2)NLABCH 56%NL
5:00Austin Peay (6-2/138)UAC (3-0)E Kentucky (4-4/183)UAC (3-0)NLAP 62%NL
5:00C Arkansas (5-3/162)UAC (3-1)N Alabama (3-6/251)UAC (1-4)NLCARK 59%NL
7:00Steph F Austin (3-5/232)UAC (0-4)Tarleton (6-3/160)UAC (2-2)NLTARL 68%NL
OOC  none    
Idle  none