Good morning from good old Roswell, Georgia, the secret lair of the GCR. It’s good to be home and watching football on my own big screen. Even though the Duke’s Mayo Bowl is underway, but let’s look at yesterday’s games first.
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The Pinstripe Bowl was a blow out with Maryland 7-6 (45) leaving no doubt against Virginia Tech 6-7 (89), 54-10. The first TD was a punt return and they never looked back, outgaining the Hokies 481-259. The balanced attack led to a 30-0 second half.
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South Carolina just scored on a 69-yard bomb taking a 7-0 lead with 10:04 in the first.
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Clemson 10-3 (14) stopped a comeback bid by Iowa St 7-6 (40) 20-13 in the Cheez-It Bowl. The Cyclones were down 20-3 following a Tiger pick 6 with 4:12 to go in the 3rd. A field goal later in the quarter and a TD with 9:42 made the game close, but that was all of the scoring.
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South Carolina just scored on a 66-yard bomb (same receiver, different QB) and got the 2-point conversion: 15-0 SCAR with 7:40 in the first.
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In the nightcap, Oklahoma 11-2 (9) and Oregon 10-4 (20) fought in a slugfest with the Sooners winning 47-32. Oklahoma won the second quarter 24-0 while Oregon won the third 22-14. There was 1057 yards of offense and only 1 turnover, and 53 first downs.
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The GCR agreed with Vegas on all 3 games and was correct on all 3. The GCR is 18-8 and Vegas is 17-9 going into today’s games. Here are the current conference standings:
| Conference | Bowls | Bowl Change | Overall Record | vs Power 5 Record | vs Group of 5 Record |
| American | 4 | -3 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| ACC | 6 | -4 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Big 12 | 7 | N/C | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Big Ten | 10 | +1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| C-USA | 8 | N/C | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3-5 |
| Indies | 4 | N/C | 2-1 | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| MAC | 8 | -1 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-5 |
| Mtn West | 6 | -2 | 5-1 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| Pac-12 | 5 | -1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| SEC | 12 | -1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Sun Belt | 4 | N/C | 3-1 | 0-0 | 3-1 |
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The Duke’s Mayo Bowl out of Charlotte is a game of expectations versus reality. UNC 6-6 (60) of the ACC was a preseason poll top 10 school, and they have a possible first-round pick at QB. They lost a late lead against NC St to end the regular season. Two of their losses were to non-bowl-eligible teams (Florida St and Georgia Tech). They have to see the trip to Charlotte this week rather than for the ACC championship as a let down. The fact that South Carolina just scored a field goal and are leading 18-0 at the end of the first quarter supports that statement. The Gamecocks 6-6 (65) of the SEC on the other hand had a new head coach in his first ever role and close to no expectations. Vegas had the over/under on wins at 3.5. To win six games including against Auburn and Florida late in the season means this bowl game is a gift to this team. How will that mix of emotions impact the end result? Time will tell. The Tar Heels just scored on a 63-yard rush making the score 18-7. When the Gamecocks have the ball, they bring an OER of just 89 (they score 8.9 points for every 10 their opponents normally allow) and will face a DER (Defensive) of just 97 (they give up 10 points for every 9.7 their opponents score). When the Tar Heels have the ball, they bring an OER of 129 (32nd in the nation) vs a DER of 116. The Vegas line was floating around UNC -9.5 but jumped to -13.0 overnight. The GCR does calculate that UNC will win, but in a much closer game 55.9%. One more fun thing about this game, the winning coach will get 4.5 gallons of Duke’s Mayo dumped on them for charity. Makes you wonder if they really want to win – lol.
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In our second game today kicking off at 3:00 (all times Eastern), the Music City Bowl out of Nashville pits Purdue 8-4 (25) of the Big Ten against Tennessee 7-5 (34) of the SEC. The Boilermakers have been the surprise of the Big Ten with wins over Michigan St and Iowa. Tennessee only had one “bad” loss (Florida) with the others being Pittsburgh (ACC Champions), Mississippi (10 wins), Alabama (SEC Champions), and Georgia (SEC East). When Purdue has the ball, their OER is 114 vs a Volunteer DER of 108. When Tennessee is on the move, they have an OER of 151 (11th in the nation) and will face a Boilermaker DER of 129 (43rd). In a GCR upset call, Vegas has Tennessee -7.5, but the GCR likes Purdue to win this in a close one 58.7%.
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In the time it took to write that paragraph the Tar Heels made a 40-yard FG and the Gamecocks countered with a 35-yard TD run – Gamecocks up 25-10 with 2:27 to go in the half.
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In what would be the Game to Watch if all bowl games weren’t already, the Peach Bowl out of Atlanta pits the ACC Champions Pittsburgh 11-2 (13) against the Big Ten’s Michigan St 10-2 (12) with a 7:00 kickoff. Both of these teams had fantastic seasons with really big wins. The Panthers only losses came to W Michigan and Miami FL (both bowl eligible) while the Spartans lost only to Purdue and Ohio St (both bowl eligible). When PITT has the ball, they bring an OER of 143 (12th) vs a Michigan St DER of 114. When MIST has the ball, an OER of 125 (40th) faces a Pittsburgh DER of 124 (53rd). This looks like another slugfest with these great offenses. Vegas favors Michigan St -3.5 and the GCR agrees on both winner and closeness: MIST 56.0%.
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Just before the half, UNC adds another field goal to trim the lead to 25-13 as we go to the break.
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In the final game today, with a 10:30 kickoff, the Las Vegas Bowl presents Arizona St 8-4 (56) of the Pac-12 in a battle with Wisconsin 8-4 (22). This is a game between conference expectations vs reality. The Big Ten gave us everything we hoped for, especially in the East, but with Purdue, Wisconsin, and Iowa all showing well. The Pac-12 had Oregon and a losing record against the Moutain West. When the Sun Devils have the ball, look for an OER of 105 while the Badgers protect with a DER of 165 (17th). When Wisconsin has the ball, they drive an OER of 120 vs an Arizona DER of 124 (54th). Vegas has Wisconsin -7.0 and the GCR agrees 65.0%
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That’s it for today. Here are all the games with updated Vegas odds, records, and rankings. See you tomorrow for semifinal day, G
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