Hello oh great and wonderful fans. After another 2000+ word diatribe last night, I’ll work on brevity. I hear the collective “ha” from anyone who has met or read me. To be fair, there are only two topics in tonight’s post: Games to watch and games the GCR picks do not match the Vegas picks.
There are a bunch of them including last night’s “upset” with App State (14) beating ULL (51) on the road. The Mountaineers were 1.5 point underdogs, but the GCR had them 54.1% to win. So, I got at least one right this week!!!
The best pre-Saturday game is Friday night when Virginia (23) invades Miami (32) at 8:00 (all times Eastern). The Hurricanes have played some above average teams and come up on the short end against Florida (6), North Carolina (68) and Virginia Tech (80). 0-2 in the Coastal is not necessarily a deal breaker but it has to beat Virginia to have a shot. The Cavaliers are the only team in the division with less than 2 losses (their lone loss was to Notre Dame (24). UVA has a chance to take a commanding 3-0 lead towards winning the division and facing Clemson (5) or Wake Forest (11) in the ACC Championship. The Vegas line is Miami -2 (keep in mind home field is worth about 3 points, usually) and the GCR supports that with the ‘Canes winning 51.9% of the time. Look for a close game here.
For the Saturday noon games, there are 2 that I’ve had trouble separating. One is Oklahoma (4) at Texas (17). Vegas has the Sooners -11 and the GCR is a little closer at 55.5%. Oklahoma should win, but I don’t expect a runaway. That said, the noon game of the week is Memphis (20) at Temple (48). The Tigers at 5-0 are trying to keep pace in the west with SMU (26) who is idle this week. Temple is 4-1 with an odd loss at Buffalo (151) but they did beat Maryland (34). Vegas has this one going to Memphis -6 and the GCR agrees 53.2%. Of note in the FCS, James Madison (84) hosts Villanova (91) in a matchup on 1-loss teams. The Dukes beat the Wildcats 57.9% of the time and take control of the Colonial.
I had the same problem with the mid-afternoon games: Alabama (2) travels to Texas A&M (33); the Tide rolls 64.0%, and Michigan State (37) traveling to Wisconsin (9) were runner-ups. By the way, the Badgers stay undefeated 74.9% of the time. Both of those games are at 3:30. The winner of the game of the week goes to Texas Tech (25) at Baylor (12) kicking off at 4:00. In the Bears’ history, they’ve started strong and fallen apart with the schedule got rougher many times. Maybe things are different now. They are 5-0, 2-0 in the conference with wins over Iowa State (55) and Kansas State (36) – and they are at home. Texas Tech was a topic in yesterday’s post because they are in the top 25 for the GCR but got no votes at all in either the AP or the Coach’s poll. At 3-2, they appear easy to overlook, but those losses came to Arizona (7) and Oklahoma (4) – both also on the road. It’s a lot for the Red Raiders to overcome, but if they want to be included with the big boys, they have to win one of these. Vegas has Baylor at -11 and even though, personally, I am worried about the team from Waco, the GCR supports the bettors at 72.9%.
The middle evening has 4 games that are interesting. First, another FCS matchup between 4-1 teams, this time in the Missouri Valley, kicking off at 6:00, South Dakota State (74) travels to Ohio to meet Youngstown State (72). Granted North Dakota State (63), the reigning FCS champs, is in first in this conference, but this game could easily impact the FCS playoffs at the end of the year. The Penguins (the home team) win 64.0%. The FBS runners up are Southern Cal (45) at Notre Dame (24), and Florida (6) at LSU (8). Both of these games are annual rivalries and critical for different reasons. The Trojans with 2 losses and the Irish with 1 really can’t afford another loss. While the game doesn’t impact the Pac-12 standings, if SoCal loses and later beats Arizona (7) and Arizona State (22) to win the South, it could ruin the teeny chance the conference has to make the playoff. In fact, this game has less to do with the Trojans and more to do with Pac 12 legitimacy. Notre Dame has to win because, a 6-point loss at Georgia (21) may be forgivable, but not 2 losses – period. Vegas says Notre Dame -11 and the GCR agrees 64.4%. The colorful clash in the SEC pits 2 undefeated teams. It’s not a division game, but LSU is trying to keep pace with Alabama (2) and Florida with Georgia. Neither team is eliminated from playoff contention with a loss, but the loser is in playoff mode for the next 7 weeks – hard on anyone. Vegas is betting big on Death Valley at night with the Tigers -13.5. The GCR doesn’t see this as a runaway and predicts a closer game at 56.5%. The evening game of the week is Penn State (3) at Iowa (19) at 7:00. Can the Hawkeyes rebound from the 10-3 (not a typo) loss to Michigan (15)? Can they actually, you know, score? They’ll have to against a perfect Penn State team looking for a destiny game with Ohio State (1). Vegas sees a close game with the Nittany Lions -3.5 and the GCR confirms it at 52.8%.
There are only 3 late night games, but 2 of them are intriguing. Washington (49) travels to the desert to take on Arizona (7). The AP and Vegas are not keen on Arizona (who have just one loss at Hawaii #31) and have the Huskies -6.5. In the upset of the week, the Wildcats go to 5-1 and take control of the Pac 12 South, 75.0% of the time. The night owl (or west coast) game of the week goes to the Mountain West Conference where Hawaii (31) visits the blueness of Boise State (30). Each team leads their respective divisions and could meet again in the championship. Boise State will support Vegas -12 winning 64.4%.
A new G’s Expectation feature: I’m listing all of the games that Vegas and the GCR disagree – purely on winner. It’s only for games with FBS teams and I’ll start reporting how the GCR does each week. This is a new feature and I’m not going back in time because this posts is already longer than I intended (sorry, not sorry). Here you go – remember I’m not to blame if you lose money, but sharing your winnings will make me smile. For the record, I don’t bet on college football – I’ve seen too many “impossible” wins.
| Home | Away | Vegas | GCR% |
| ULL (51) | App State (14) | ULL -1.5 | App St 54.1% |
| ULM (132) | Texas State (93) | ULM -3.5 | Texas St 64.7% |
| Colorado St (211) | New Mexico (150) | CST-3.5 | N Mex 69.9% |
| BYU (105) | S Florida (112) | BYU -6.5 | USF 59.6% |
| Iowa St (55) | West Virginia (61) | IASt -10.5 | WVU 57.9% |
| Army (64) | W Kentucky (98) | Army -4.5 | WKU 52.0% |
| Navy (27) | Tulsa (54) | Tul -1.0 | Navy 55.4% |
| Washington (49) | Arizona (7) | Wash -6.5 | AZ 75.0% |
Thanks, Robert (or “G”). Yes, I was curious how the GCR did against the Vegas odds, especially for the games that are bet big. Those important games are probably the games where both teams are ranked in the GCR top 50 or so. Didn’t you have Florida beating Auburn last week with a pretty good percentage? I think Auburn was favored by Vegas. If I were a betting person, and your machine was shown to have a good record (say 2/3 of the time it was right when Vegas was wrong), then I’d bet a steady diet on your upsets. But you and I aren’t betting men, so…
I’d at least have to have more data. Lol