Hello college football fans! Welcome to the penultimate regular season week for FBS and the final week for FCS. Tuesday I talked about the FCS playoff situation in G’s Exploration. If you haven’t read it, please do and let me know what you think. It’s that time of year where a lot of games are being played (121 of them this week), but most don’t mean a lot to anyone other than die-hard fans. I’m watching the NC State (69/67)/Georgia Tech (150/112) game. One that the teams are a combined 6-14 coming in. This morning Tech was the Vegas favorite -1.0, but it closed with the Wolfpack -2.5. It’s currently 14-3 Tech and State just muffed a punt – just before the half. I’ll update if the Yellow Jackets can score in the last 44 seconds. Speaking of this game, Dan Scothorn sent a game pic and I’ll upload that as soon as I post this blog. Thanks, Dan!! If you go to a game, send me a pic at grgettys@gmail.com and I’ll post it on the gamepic page.
Before we get into the few games worth watching (I’m speaking from college football as a whole – obviously even some Arkansas (173/121) fans are going to watch the LSU (1) game). Touchdown Georgia Tech!! 21-3. here are the upsets for this week.
| Home | Away | Vegas | GCR% |
| Buffalo (102/92) | Toledo (76/72) | Buff-9.0 | Toledo 50.9% |
| Kent St (119/100) | Ball St (122/102) | Ball -3.5 | Kent St 54.6% |
| UConn (208/127) | E Car (192/126) | ECar -14.0 | Conn 54.6% |
| UAB (81/77) | La Tech (49) | UAB-6.0 | LATC 50.2% |
| Navy (46) | SMU (21) | Navy-3.5 | SMU 54.2% |
| Charlotte (86/81) | Marshall (77/73) | Mars-7.0 | Char 53.6% |
| Indiana (28) | Michigan (26) | Mich-9.0 | Ind 60.2% |
| Stanfd (127/104) | Cal (48) | Stan-3.0 | Cal 59.4% |
| Texas Tech (59) | K-State (34) | TXTC-2.0 | K-ST 52.4% |
Next week I expect the games to watch to be significant. This week, it’s a little tough to get behind this slate. I’m hoping for a slow Saturday so that I can be a couch potato with a remote, and here’s what I’m planning to watch.
At noon (all times Eastern), I want to see the battle for the Big 10 East. Penn State (8) travels to Columbus to face Ohio State (4). Vegas has the Buckeyes -18, but the GCR says a bit closer at 65.9%. The winner of this game plays what will most likely be the winner of next week’s Minnesota (15)/Wisconsin (10) game for the Big 10 championship. If Ohio State wins out, they are in the Playoff at a 1 or 2 seed. If Penn State wins out, they are in at a 4 or maybe 3 seed, especially if they take revenge on Minnesota. But first things first – Penn State will stand down against the Ohio State juggernaut.
I will be channel surfing for the afternoon games. First, staying in the Big 10 and the upset of the week, Michigan (26) will travel to Indiana (28) and lose. Vegas has them at -9.0, but the Hoosiers will win 60.2% of the time. This loss will sully next week’s rivalry game with Ohio State, but there it is. I’ll also be watching a team be eliminated from the ACC Coastal race. Pittsburgh (29) will invade Virginia Tech (42) with both teams tied in the loss column with Virginia (17) who is playing independent Liberty (107/95). Pitt already lost to UVA in week 1, so their only hope of winning a chance to play Clemson (2) for the ACC Championship is winning Saturday and then the Hokies taking out their rival (as they so often do). If the Hokies win, it all comes down to the rivalry game, winner takes on Clemson. So, in this playoff type scenario Vegas is Va Tech -4.0 and the GCR agrees 56.7% – this one will be one of the closest important games this weekend. When not watching these two, I will be paying attention to Texas (22) at Baylor (5). Baylor needs to win out, including beating Oklahoma to have a shot at the Playoffs. Texas could arguably still end up 2nd in the Big 12, but if that happens, I don’t see the conference represented in the Playoff at all. Baylor is Vegas favored -5.5, but the GCR thinks it will be a bigger win at 72.1%.
After some dinner and catching up on other games, I’ll sit back to watch (at least the first half) of the Utah (11) at Arizona (91/84). This appears to be a mismatch, you say, and you would be right, but Utah’s one loss was to Southern Cal (24) who is playing their final regular season game against UCLA (36). If they win and Utah loses this week or next vs Colorado (92/85), they will win the South. If that happens, the Pac 12 probably loses a possible Playoff spot (unless a whole bunch of weird stuff happens). The conference’s best bet is Oregon beating a 1-loss Utah. Fair? Probably not. Maybe Utah gets in if they beat a 1-loss Oregon, but I think the road is harder with the committee if you aren’t a “name”. A 12-1 Oregon is not a guarantee is any circumstance this year, but, to be honest, they have a better chance. The Utes should win this game 72.1% of the time. Vegas has them as 22 point favorites.
That’s it for this week. Thank you as always for taking the time to read. Please comment/question/challenge and share with others.
G
