Hello football fans and welcome to FBS Semifinals Day. I capitalized it because today is much more deserving to be a holiday than Festivus, right? At least it’s Saturday and I hope most of us are on a weekend break. Before we jump into the 4 games today, let’s take a look back at yesterday. The GCR did pretty well picking North Carolina (55-13), Michigan State (27-21), Iowa (49-24), and Air Force (31-21) who all not only won, but beat the spread. I did pick Oklahoma State to beat Texas A&M, but they lost by a FG 24-21 – the spread closed at 4.5 so 5-0 against the spread yesterday, but, alas, it goes in the books as 4-1 bringing the bowl record to 12-5.
By the way, here’s the updated conference bowl records:
Mountain West (3-2 with 2 games remaining)
Big 10 (2-0 with 7 or 8 remaining)
Sun Belt (2-1 with 2 remaining)
Mid-American [MAC] (2-2 with 3 remaining)
ACC (2-2 with 6 or 7 remaining)
Conference USA (2-3 with 2 remaining)
SEC (1-0 with 8 or 9 remaining)
Independents (1-1 with 1 [Notre Dame] remaining)
American (1-2 with 4 remaining)
Pac-12 (1-2 with 4 remaining)
Big 12 (0-1 with 5 or 6 remaining)
One more thing before we get into today’s games. Right now with nearly daily games, I’m clearly busy just keeping up with predictions and such. After the championship games, I will start some deeper analysis of the season that was, including best/worst conferences, divisions, offenses, defenses – both individually and by conference/division – etc., as we begin to transition to the 2020-2021 season. Always, but especially during the lean months, any questions or analysis or cut of the data you’d like to see me try to tackle (no promises, but I’ll always do my best) are very welcome. Also, any suggestions you have in the type of analysis I do or the data or presentation, etc., is incredibly fantastic. I’m a firm believer that feedback makes the person and process stronger – so bring it on!
One more note: since the games are becoming a little more important, I’m adding an element into the analysis that bears a reminder. Offensive and Defensive Efficiency (OffEff and DefEff). OffDef is calculated with 100 being average. If a team played two games scoring 20 in both games, but the first opponent normally gives up 20 points a game and the second opponent normally gives up 10 points a game, the did average and better than average. The OffDef by game is 100 and 200 so the season OffDef is 150. DefEFf is similarly scaled to 100 and like the OffDef higher is better. A team with 2 games gives up 20 in each, but the first opponent normally scores 20 (average) and the second normally scores 10 (below average). The DefEFf by game would be 100 and 50 so the season number is 75. Hope that makes sense. The metrics are designed as a more accurate measure of offensive and defensive…goodness…than saying team A scores 24.7 points per game and team B scores 35.9 points per game. It’s possible team A is a better offense: if team A’s opponents gave up 21.0 per game and team B’s opponents gave up 45.0 per game, for example.
But enough of that. It’s time to look at today’s games. First, and all times are Eastern, we have the Cotton Bowl kicking off at noon from Arlington, Texas. The American Athletic Conference Champion Memphis Tigers (59) will face their toughest competition yet in the Penn State Nittany Lions (11). Memphis had to beat Cincinnati (23) twice (both games at home) in back to back weeks to win their division and then the conference, but that haven’t played any other top 25 team. Their one hiccough (yes, that is correct) occurred when they fell to Temple (88). The American conference has some really good teams (5 double digit winners), so it is no surprise that the Tigers have faced 7 6+ win teams and 4 10+win teams. At 12-1 they have the 2nd best offense in the conference (OffEff of 143) and the 3rd best defense (DefEff of 122). Their opponents record is 85-76 heading into this game. They will be facing a team that could have been in the Big 10 title game with a win over Ohio State. Penn State (10-2, 2nd in the Big 10 East) played 4 top 25 teams going 2-2 during the season – they went 1-1 against top 10 teams. 8 of their opponents had 6+ wins and 3 had 10+ as they faced a cumulative 87-62 record. Their OffEff of 140, very similar to Memphis, was 4th in the conference, but their DefEFf was stifling at 201 (good or 8th in the country) and behind only Ohio State in the Big 10. It should be a fun game to watch. Vegas has the Nittany Lions -7.0 and that sounds really good to me. Penn State 62.2%.
The other noon game isn’t quite the powerhouse, but it should be the closest of the day. Iowa State (32, 7-5, 6th in the Big 12) takes on Notre Dame (16, 10-2, Lone Power 5 Independent) in the Camping World Bowl out of Orlando. One might be thinking Iowa State at 7-5 against a 10 win team? Yes, and here’s why. Against non top 25 teams, the Cyclones were 6-0, but played 6 games against elite opponents (0-2 against top 10). Their opponents overall were 88-62, including 7 6+ win foes and 4 with 10+ wins. Their OffEff was 3rd in the conference at 131 but their defense was down a bit in the middle of the conference at 5th with a DefEff of 118. The Fighting Irish only played 3 top 25 teams so far and won 2 of them (0-1 vs the top 10). However, 8 of them won six or more and 2 won 10 or more, going 82-65 overall. Because they aren’t in a conference, I’ll compare their Efficiency Ratings to all of Division I. Their OffEff was 133 good for 28th in the nation and they have the 18th best defense at a rating of 155. I mentioned earlier this was going to be the closest: Vegas has the Irish -3.5 and when I saw that I thought, really? Against Iowa State? Then I calculated the game and the GCR shamed my emotional outcry with Notre Dame winning 56.7%.
In the first semi of the day, in the great city of Atlanta, Big 12 Champion Oklahoma Sooners (20) takes on the SEC Champion LSU Tigers (2). The Peach Bowl kicks off at 4:00 and pits teams with a combined 25-1 record (Oklahoma lost to Kansas State). Both teams played 5 top 25 teams (K-State being one of them). Oklahoma had to beat Baylor twice to win the conference (anyone else have deja vu right now?) but otherwise did not play any top 10 teams. LSU beat Alabama, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia (all top 10). LSU played 9 6+ win teams and 3 10+ wins foes, while Oklahoma is 6 and 2 in those categories. Oklahoma faced 82-77 opposition while LSU just topped them at 87-73. Let’s start with defense with these teams. Oklahoma is 3rd in the Big 12 and 56th overall with a DefEff of 124 while LSU is 6th in the SEC and 30th overall at 144. If you didn’t watch a game, follow the season, or read a blog before now, you might think this game would be a defensive battle. Nope. They both have the best offense in their respective conferences: Oklahoma (OffEff of 154) is 6th in the country and LSU (185) is 2nd. The defenses are good enough that this won’t be a basketball score, but expect a lot of crooked numbers. Vegas has LSU -14.0 and I think that’s about right. LSU 72.5%.
In the nightcap from Glendale AZ starting at 8:00, we have the Big 10 Champion Ohio State Buckeyes (3, 13-0) matching up with the ACC Champion Clemson Tigers (1, 13-0). There is no doubt these teams are powerhouses. Clemson has an OffEff of 164, good for 4th in the country and the best DefEff at a crazy 269 (that means that if they play an opponent who normally scores 26.9 points per game, the will only give up 10). The Buckeyes are 3rd in the nation for DefEFf at 224, so no defensive slouches on the own, but they have the best OffEff at 205 (meaning if team normally gives up 20.0 points per game, they will score 40). It’s rock and hard place time. So far, they sound very compatible and it has the makings of a great game. But then there’s the elephant in the room. During the regular season Clemson did not play anyone currently in the top 25. Virginia (18), their opponent in the ACC championship game was their greatest challenge. Overall their opponents were just 82-79 and while 9 of them won 6+ games, they have yet to face a double digit team. Ohio State is used to being challenged, they are 6-0 against top 25 teams and 2-0 against top 10 teams. They also had 9 6+win opponents, but had 5 10+ win foes. Overall all, they faced teams with a combined record of 96-67. So who wins this game to take on LSU? Vegas thinks the Tigers in a close one at -2.0. My gut tells me Clemson hasn’t been challenged, but it also reminds me that Ohio State has never beaten a Power 5 team from South Carolina (3 losses to Clemson and 2 to the Gamecocks). My gut says the streak is broken, but I have to go with the GCR Clemson wins 59.1%.
That’s it for today. I’ll be back Sunday night. Please leave comments/suggestions/questions and, as always, thank you for sharing with others, G
