Congratulations, college football fans – we’ve made it to Thursday!!! Thursday night football and LA Tech (54) intercepted the North Texas Mean Green (107) to stop a long drive before countering with a Bulldog touchdown. 7-0 9:33 in the first. This game is interesting because the Bulldogs opened as a 3.5 favorite before North Texas took over at -1.0. Check the table below to see how this all other games should play out according to the GCR (hint: LA Tech 71.0%). Later tonight Air Force (96) travels to Utah St (125).
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Tomorrow at 8:30 (all times Eastern), is the pre-Saturday game to watch, however, when the Ragin’ Cajuns of Louisiana (16) hit the road to Boone, NC to face App St (31). A combined 15-3 (2 of those losses came against Coastal Carolina – more on the Chanticleers in a moment – and the other against 7-0 Marshall) leads to an interesting matchup. Against teams with at least one loss so far this season they are 15-0!! Something has to give. To make matters more interesting, the GCR has Louisiana winning a close one 59.5%, while Vegas has the game going to the Mountaineers -3.0. If you haven’t watched either of these teams this year, tomorrow night is a great start. This will be a lot of fun to start the weekend. But it’s not the game of the week? What? How? Keep reading, please, and all will be explained.
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The Saturday early games (starting 2:30 or sooner) have some really lopsided matchups. Marshall (15) should stay undefeated against Rice (117) 92.5%, UNC (28) will beat W Carolina (141) – I know, I’m predicting all games from here on out even FBS vs FCS games – 96.9%, W Michigan (25) will not be an hospitable host to E Michigan with a rare 99.9% win rate, and Notre Dame (1) will not be challenged by visiting Syracuse 93.9%. There are a couple of toss up games but they are all, how shall I say this diplomatically, bad games (Bowling Green [139] at Akron [137] and Troy [81] at South Alabama [89]) bad. The game to watch is really clear in my mind. Texas A&M (9) is trying to be considered as a playoff option. Auburn (32) has not had the year it wanted with 3 losses. When the Aggies invade the War Tigers they have to impress. With all of that on the line, Vegas sees the Aggies winning by 7.0 and the GCR supports that at A&M 62.3%. But that’s not the game of the week either.
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In the afternoon (games between 3:00 and 7:00), there are a few that stand out. Indiana (20) at Wisconsin (38) which Vegas sees at a blowout Badger win -14.5 and the GCR sees as a close Indiana win (58.1%) is one. Or how about Boston College (35) invading Virginia (44) – another GCR/Vegas disagreement. I had a very heartbreaking moment earlier today when my choice for game of the week was cancelled due to Covid at Liberty (21). We were going to see a 9-1 Flames team whose only loss was a 1-pointer at NC St vs the 9-0 Coastal Carolina (6) in Conway, SC. Imagine my surprise and happiness when BYU (12) stepped in for Liberty. The Cougars are 9-0 themselves and all of a sudden we have 2 undefeated teams on Dec 5!!! Yes, in a normal year, this would be championship week. These are 2 teams that really want to put pressure on Cincinnati (8-0 10) for best in the Group of 5. The last I looked there was no line on the game, but the articles I’ve read support BYU as the consensus favorite, but in the game of the week and the upset of the week, the GCR has Coastal Carolina going to 10-0 57.6%.
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The night games return to mismatches except for the game to watch as Nevada (39) just coming from an upset loss in Hawaii (88) hosting Fresno St (56) who also has just one loss. The winner of this game holds pace with undefeated San Jose St (27) in the Mountain West West division. Nevada should return to it’s winning ways (GCR 60.8% and Vegas -7.0).
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This week we have a couple of bonus games on Sunday. Charlotte (92) lost a few games to Covid and is trying to make them up. They were scheduled to play FIU (123) on Saturday – both teams have only played 5 games in an 11-week season. To try to catch up, Charlotte scheduled W Kentucky (84), who has 10 games under their belt, Tuesday night, but it was later cancelled (yes, they were going to play twice in the same week). The FIU game was shut down, so the Tuesday game was shifted to Sunday. Make sense? The game to watch Sunday from a college perspective is Washington St (70) at Southern Cal (8). The Trojans should go to 4-0 (GCR 78.9%, Vegas -13.5).
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Before we get to the full 48 game prediction, here’s where we stand so far this year.
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Last week the expectations were high (.725) and the GCR did not disappoint (despite 3 80% decile losses) at a cool .750. This week, there are 10 80%+ games that are driving an expectation of .716. If all games are played, the GCR has to be right 35 times out of 48 to exceed. The pressure is on and that is awesome! The last thing before I sign off, North Texas just scored tying the game at 14 with 11:50 to go in the 2nd. This might be one of those “whoever has the ball last” kind of games. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. With no further ado, here is every game this week, G
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