G’s Explanation for Week 7 – Conference Week

I talked in the previous post about Upset Week. It really shook the GCR and the AP poll. In that poll, the SEC holds the top 2 spots. The GCR does not agree with Ohio State and Alabama holding that. But I do have 4 SEC teams in the top 10. So, I get it, the SEC is the strongest conference. Why do we have to read about it? First, as you’ll see if you keep reading, the SEC is not the best conference so far. I’ll explain why later. Before we do that, I need to call out one team who has done something just insanely fantastic. Wisconsin (8) shut out Michigan State (41) who along with South Florida (105), Central Michigan (98), and Kent State (49) accounted for ZERO of the points allowed by the Badgers this year. In total they’ve allowed 4 TDS, 2 extra points, and a FG for 29 points. So far 122 of the 257 Division I teams AVERAGE more than 29 points per game, including Wisconsin. Fully 107 of those schools allow more than 29 points PER GAME. It is an incredible feat.

Before I talk about the FBS, let’s check out the FCS conferences. Some of you may not be familiar with them, and, while I admit, the games are generally not the quality that we see from top tier schools, that can be said for many teams. Keep in mind that these teams aren’t vying for the Big Playoff or even bowl games – they aren’t eligible, even though 2 of them are ranked in the GCR top 50 and would be fun to watch – North Dakota State (48) and Montana (50). They are looking for a berth in the 24-team NCAA Sanctioned Playoff. The 10 conference winners are automatic qualifiers (SWAC, MEAC, and Ivy do not participate – the SWAC and MEAC play a “bowl” game instead”). Then 14 at large are selected, seeded, and the games begin. The Bison of North Dakota State are the reigning champs and look strong again. For this analysis, I kept it pretty simple. I have the record of each conference along with their respective best and worst team. The conference order, from worst to best is based on each average Total Score. I did not list teams in the Top of the GCR because it would be a bunch of zeroes, except for the 2 above. I also did not list the vs Top 25/50 because no FCS team has won one of those yet. They are 0-15 against Top 10 teams and 0-47 against Top 50 teams.

Only the 2 best conferences have winning records and every conference (the FCS independents only has 2 teams) have at least 1 team in the bottom 18. There are a total of 12 FCS schools in the top 100. To put this in perspective Illinois is #100 this week. For perspective on the 2 best, Syracuse is #51. The way the GCR works, these high ranked FCS schools will have to continue winning to come close to staying because each of them faces some not-so-great competition in conference play.

The FBS is a bit different – in addition to the fields above, I added the number of teams in the top 10,25,50 and records vs the top 25, 50. There is a distinction this year between the Group of 5 and the Power 5 conference in one major area: check out the versus Top 25/50. The Gof5 has 1 win against the top 25 – Hawaii (35) beat Arizona (17) at home in week 0. The SEC leads this category with 6 wins in 18 tries vs the Top 25 (.333 winning pct), and 15-21 (.417) against the top 50. The top 25 is 131-19 (.873) overall and the top 50 is 233-66 (.799). So how can the SEC NOT be the best conference, you ask? Let’s look at the table.

The first thing I notice is 5 conferences (if you count the Independents as a conference) have teams ranked worse than 200 – in fact in the Bottom 50. There are 6 teams total (New Mexico State (222) who are in that bucket and 2 in the bottom 25 (Akron and Massachusetts). Akron (252) is the 5th worst team in Division I. The Zips are zipping this year.

But I digress. All those stats and love from the AP for the SEC miss one key metric from the table above: There are 4 SEC schools – Alabama (2), Florida (3), LSU (5), and Auburn (7) in the top 7, but then there’s a gap. On the chart you can see there are no other top 25 teams. The data shows there are 3 tiers in the SEC right now: the superstars listed above, the good but not great – Georgia (34), Missouri (40), Texas A&M (43), South Carolina (44), and Mississippi State (61), and finally the…um, not going as planned – Mississippi (88), Kentucky (106), Tennessee (129), Vanderbilt (163), and Arkansas (168). These 3 tiers indicate the SEC is really top heavy and really bottom heavy. The Big 12, although they have struggled against top 25 teams – the lone win came in the Red River Clash with Oklahoma (6) beating Texas (21) – there is only 1 team ranked below 80. And that team, Kansas (127) is the best ranked worst team in any conference. But the winner right now has to go to the Big 10. Illinois (100) that I mentioned above is in 13th place. There are 5 teams in the top 13 and the 3 of the best defenses: Ohio State 53 points and a 205 Defensive Efficiency Rating, Penn State (4) 49 points, 266 DER, and Wisconsin (8), 29 points, 237 DER. There are 184 teams that have given up more points than these 3 teams combined.

That’s a wrap for this week. Please send in questions, comments, game pictures, challenges. Also, subscribe if you have not done so yet. Please share the blog with others so that we can get some great discussion going!!

Thanks, G