Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 657 of the GCR. Today we are going to talk about the 16th most challenged conference in Division I (D1) football this season using our preseason strength of schedule (PS-SOS) metric. So far, we’ve covered the Pioneer League (25th at a conference average PS-SOS of 3.341), the SWAC (24th at 3.396), the MEAC (23rd at 3.563), the Southland Conference (22nd at 3.626), the Big South/Ohio Valley Conference (21st at 3.672), the CAA (20th at 3.808), the FCS Independents (19th at 3.844), the SoCon (18th at 3.989), and the UAC (17th at 4.013).
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As a quick reminder, every team is currently tied for first (or last) with a strength of schedule for the 2026 season tied for first (or last). We have no biases. Indiana (undefeated FBS champion last year) and Chicago St (new to college football in 2026) not only have the same ranks before games are played, but the same expectation, which is we have no idea how the season is going to play out. The original GCR, which was just an email to friends and co-workers, began with the same principle: no assumptions that team A will be better than team B – every team must earn their rating. When we began the blog in 2019, we added this preseason countdown to help create a little excitement over the summer. If it helped us get readership, even better. Like most changes to the GCR, we either asked ourselves a question (how can we guess which conferences play the most difficult schedules?) or a reader asks a question (can you add information about Vegas picks?), and we tried to figure it out. We once had a question about creating a recency (meaning more recent games count “more” than early season games) component to the model and we duplicated the program to test it. There wasn’t a lot of difference, and we decided not to use recency going forward. The GCR sees every game that has been played as being played “now”. We’ll talk about this more during the season, but the formulae adjust both performance and SOS metrics based on all opponent’s value during the season. In other words, Old Dominion who played Indiana in game 1 last year got credit for losing to a 16-0 team at the end of the season. That value, of course, adjusted throughout the season as the teams played other their schedules.
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But we digress. The PS-SOS countdown uses 2025 GCR Score (performance and SOS metrics) and overlays them onto the 2026 schedule. We take the mean of those scheduled games for each team, sort the teams into their 2026 conferences. Then we take the mean of the conference members PS-SOS and rank from 1-25. PS-SOS is calibrated such that the most-challenged teams float around 10.00 and the least-challenged hover just above 3.00. We can read that as the average number of wins each team’s opponents had (in 2025) assuming they played a typical FBS schedule at neutral sites.
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As a further reminder, the FBS is made up of the Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Notre Dame) conferences and the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, UCONN) Conferences. The FCS is made up of the other D1 conferences (Big Sky, Big South/Ohio Valley, CAA, FCS Independents, Ivy, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Patriot, Pioneer, SoCon, Southland, SWAC, and UAC). Non-D1 teams are either Division II, Division III, or NAIA.
But today we are talking about Sweet 16 in the countdown, the 9-team Missouri Valley Conference. The loss of powerhouse North Dakota St to the Mountain West dropped the PS-SOS from where it could have been, but rest assured that with South Dakota, South Dakota St, and 2025 FCS Championship Runner-up Illinois St, there will be plenty of power from the MVC. In the table below, (4) indicates a challenge against a Core 4 team, (G) indicates a game against a Group of 6 opponent, (F) indicates a non-conference FCS foe, and (D) indicates a non-D1 game. There are no scheduled neutral site games. The mean PS-SOS for the MVC is 4.021 and the average PS-SOS member rank is 185.1 out of 266. With no further ado, we are proud to present the 2026 Missouri Valley Football Conference.
| Team Conf Rank | Home Field | 2025 Record (Rank) | 2026 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away Games | Hardest | Easiest |
| N Iowa Panthers (1) | Cedar Falls, IA | 3-9 (228) | 4.64 (143) | Drake (F), Illinois St, North Dakota, Indiana St, South Dakota St | E Washington (F), Iowa (4), Youngstown St, S Illinois, South Dakota, Murray St | at Iowa (11.99) | at Murray St (1.58) |
| Youngstown St Penguins (2) | Youngstown, OH | 8-5 (172) | 4.14 (172) | Mercyhurst (F), Duquesne (F), South Dakota, N Iowa, North Dakota, Illinois St | Kentucky (4), South Dakota St, S Illinois, Indiana St, Murray St | at Kentucky (9.40) | at Murray St (1.58) |
| South Dakota Coyotes (3) | Vermillion, SD | 10-5 (173) | 4.14 (174) | C Connecticut (F), E Washington (F), Indiana St, S Illinois, North Dakota, N Iowa | N Colorado (F), Boise St (G), Youngstown St, Murray St, South Dakota St, Illinois St | at Boise St (9.45) | at Murray St (1.58) |
| Murray St Racers (4) | Murray, KY | 1-11 (261) | 4.12 (175) | E Illinois (F), Valparaiso (F), S Illinois, South Dakota, Youngstown St, N Iowa | Mid Tenn (G), Oklahoma St (4), North Dakota, South Dakota St, Illinois St, Indiana St | at Mid Tenn (6.05) | E Illinois (2.30) |
| South Dakota St Jackrabbits (5) | Brookings, SD | 9-5 (158) | 3.96 (186) | Stetson (F), New Haven (F), Youngstown St, E Illinois (F), Murray St, South Dakota, Indiana St | Northwestern (4), Illinois St, North Dakota, N Iowa, S Illinois | at Northwestern (10.02) | Murray St (1.38) |
| North Dakota Fighting Hawks (6) | Grand Forks, ND | 8-6 (136) | 3.96 (187) | Long Island (F), St Thomas (F), Murray St, South Dakota St, Illinois St, S Illinois | Portland St (F), Nebraska (4), Indiana St, N Iowa, South Dakota, Youngstown St | at Nebraska (9.65) | at Portland St (1.08) |
| S Illinois Salukis (7) | Carbondale, IL | 7-5 (166) | 3.94 (191) | SEMO (F), Youngstown St, Illinois St, N Iowa, South Dakota St | West Florida (F), Samford (F), Illinois (4), Murray St, South Dakota, Indiana St, North Dakota | at Illinois (11.59) | at Samford (0.72) |
| Indiana St Sycamores (8) | Terre Haute, IN | 3-9 (249) | 3.93 (193) | SEMO (F), Valparaiso (F), North Dakota, Youngtown St, S Illinois, Murray St | Purdue (4), E Illinois (F), South Dakota, Illinois St, N Iowa, South Dakota St | at Purdue (7.20) | Murray St (1.38) |
| Illinois St Redbirds (9) | Normal, IL | 12-5 (151) | 3.37 (245) | St Francis IL (D), E Illinois (F), South Dakota St, Indiana St, Murray St, South Dakota | W Illinois (F), N Illinois (G), N Iowa, S Illinois, North Dakota, Youngstown St | at N Illinois (5.96) | Murray St (1.38) |
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That’s it for today. Tune in Monday for the 11th in the series aka the 15th most-challenged conference. Thank you for reading, thank you, keytarski for the great question, and thank you, especially, for helping us grow by sharing our work with others. Until next time, JoJo and G
