G’s Exploration or Let’s Check a Few Things Out Before November

Howdy again, sports fans. A couple of times this season, we’ve explored the conferences – and we will again for the FCS – but the FBS has lots of divisions and they are not created equal. Before we get there, let’s talk about some of the big games yesterday. Michigan (5)/Michigan St (4) was one for the ages with the Spartans falling behind repeatedly by double digits (in the second half they were down 30-14), and outscored the Wolverines 23 (3 TDs, 1XP and 2 2-pt conversions) to 3. Michigan outgained the home team by over 150 yards and had a near 10:00 possession advantage, but somehow the Spartans took the game to become the only remaining unbeaten team in the Big 10. Staying in the Big 10, Wisconsin (27) pummeled once-Cinderella Iowa (19) 27-7 leaving Minnesota (25) leading the Big 10 West (see disparity of divisions below). Miami FL (37) upended Pittsburgh (35) a week after the Panthers had established ACC dominance in a decisive victory over Clemson (30). By the way, Pittsburgh lost to Miami FL who lost to Alabama (6) who lost to Texas A&M (21) who lost to Mississippi St (39) who lost to Memphis (128) who lost to Temple (156) who lost to Rutgers (52) who lost to Northwestern (99) who lost to Nebraska (49) who lost to Illinois (88) who lost to Virginia (34) who lost to BYU (18) who lost to Boise St (56) who lost to UCF (76) who lost to Navy (114) who lost to Marshall (102) who lost to East Carolina (112) who lost to South Carolina (65) who lost to Tennessee (70) who lost to…Pittsburgh. Speaking of Mississippi St (yes, they are in that sentence somewhere), they beat Kentucky (14) allowing Georgia (1) to clinch the SEC East. Washington St (63) beat Arizona St (64) giving Utah the lead in the Pac 12 South. Fresno St (29) beat previously unbeaten San Diego St (16). All in all, a ton of games that didn’t go the way “we” thought they would. Overall, the GCR was 73-37 (.664) but just 2-8 (3-7 vs the spread) in upset picks. There’s always next week.

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Speaking of perfection, no winless team stopped being winless this week. They include one Power 5 team – Arizona (101) – one Group of 5 team – UNLV (77) – and 7 FCS teams – Albany (246), Morgan St (258), Lehigh (257), Wagner (256), Houston Baptist (255), Dixie St (252), and Bethune Cookman (244). In addition to Michigan and San Diego St, SMU (24) lost to1-loss Houston (20) on the road reducing the perfect teams to 9. They include the top 4 teams in the country – Georgia (1), Wake Forest (2), Oklahoma (3), and Michigan St (4) – two Group of 5 team – Cincinnati (7) and UTSA (12) – and 3 FCS teams – Princeton (67), North Dakota St (58), and Sam Houston (68).

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7 additional teams joined the bowl eligible club bringing the total to 36. By conference:

American: Cincinnati, Houston, SMU

ACC: Wake Forest, NC St (31), Virginia, Pittsburgh

Big 12: Oklahoma, Oklahoma St (10), Baylor (11)

Big Ten: Michigan St, Michigan, Ohio St (8), Iowa, Minnesota

Conference USA: UTSA (12), UTEP (62)

Independents: Notre Dame (9), BYU, Liberty (42)

MAC: N Illinois (41)

Mountain West: San Diego St, Fresno St, Utah St (45), Air Force (46), Nevada (50)

Pac 12: Oregon (13)

SEC: Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, Auburn (15), Mississippi (17), Texas A&M

Sun Belt: Louisiana (23), Coastal Carolina (26), App St (33)

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Likewise, there were 7 teams that picked up that dreaded 7th loss eliminating them from a bowl game. The herd has been reduced by 12 overall:

Power 5: Arizona, Vanderbilt (148), and Kansas (51 – #1 SOS by far)

Group of 5: New Mexico St (154), UCONN (181), Ohio (173), UNLV (77), UMASS (143), Tulane (71), FIU (176), Southern Miss (153), and Arkansas St (170).

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Now let’s look at the FCS conferences from worst to best by winning percentage. A couple of things: after each conference name the parenthetical amount is the number of teams, and I chose teams in the Top 130 because there are 130 FBS teams who, theoretically, should all be better than the FCS (in no way is that reality, but go with the logic). One more point: the FCS overall is 482-530 or .476 winning percentage for comparison.

ConferenceRecord (pct)Best TeamTop 130
Patriot (7)20-36 (.357)Holy Cross (136)0
MEAC (6)19-29 (.396)Norfolk St (120)1
Northeast (8)26-36 (.419)Bryant (168)0
Ohio Valley (7)25-33 (.431)Tennessee Martin (85)1
Southland (6)21-27 (.438)SELA (90)1
Big South (9)32-38 (.457)Kennesaw St (95)1
Pioneer (11)40-47 (.460)Davidson (111)1
SWAC (12)44-49 (.473)Jackson St (84)2
AQ7/WAC (9)35-36 (.493)Sam Houston (68)1
SoCon (9)36-36 (.500)E Tennessee St (87)2
Big Sky (13)53-53 (.500)Montana St (86)4
Colonial (12)49-47 (.510)James Madison (83)3
Missouri Valley (11)49-40 (.551)North Dakota St (58)2
Ivy (8)33-23 (.582)Princeton (67)2

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For the FBS, I’ve added a few columns including best win and worst loss for each division. They are sorted by winning percentage so there will be separation within conferences, but it seemed the best way to show the data. A few reference points: as a reminder, the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 12, and SEC are Power 5 (they have an overall record of 303-218 or .518), the rest are Group of 5, including the independents which houses 1 official Power 5 school with Notre Dame. The Group of 5/Independents are a combined 269-266 or .503. Overall the FBS is 572-482 or .543. The Rank column is the mean GCR rank for that division. The American and Big 12 do not have divisions and are shown in total.

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Conf/DivRankRecordBest TeamTop 25Best WinWorst Loss
MAC East (6)138.818-32 (.360)Miami OH (91)0Minnesota (25)Ohio (173)
Pac 12 South (6)78.221-28 (.429)Utah (32)0LSU (53)N Arizona (188)
C-USA East (7)118.125-31 (.446)FAU (74)0UTEP (62)Buffalo (165)
Sun West (5)101.819-21 (.475)Louisiana (23)1App St (33)Ga Southern (161)
C-USA West (7)100.727-29 (.482)UTSA (12)1Tulane (71)North Texas (160)
Independents (7)89.628-30 (.483)Notre Dame (9)2Wisconsin (27)Vanderbilt (148)
American (11)87.346-42 (.523)Cincinnati (7)3Notre Dame (9)Temple (156)
ACC Coastal (7)66.730-27 (.526)Virginia (34)0Clemson (30)Charlotte (146)
Big Ten West (7)49.631-27 (.534)Iowa (19)2Iowa (19)Bowling Green (149)
MTW Mountain (6)89.026-22 (.541)Utah St (45)0BYU (18)Vanderbilt (148)
Pac 12 North (6)73.327-22 (.551)Oregon (13)1Ohio St (8)Montana (129)
SEC East (7)65.332-25 (.561)Georgia (1)2Kentucky (14)Missouri (104)
MTW West (6)67.829-22 (.569)San Diego St (16)1San Diego St (16)Colorado St (142)
Sun East (5)91.423-17 (.575)Coastal Carolina (26)0Coastal Carolina (26)Troy (124)
MAC West (6)91.728-20 (.583)N Illinois (41)0Pittsburgh (35)Colorado St (142)
Big 12 (10)33.950-32 (.610)Oklahoma (3)4Oklahoma St (10)Duke (115)
ACC Atlantic (7)50.735-22 (.614)Wake Forest (2)1Clemson (30)Jacksonville St (201)
Big Ten East (7)30.638-18 (.679)Michigan St (4)3Michigan (5)Northwestern (99)
SEC West (7)26.739-17 (.696)Alabama (6)4Alabama (6)Memphis (128)

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That’s it for the Exploration for this evening. I wish you a wonderful rest of your Sunday and a great week. One reminder, next week starts the wildness that is MACNation with games starting on Tuesday. I’ll be in San Diego but will do my best to post predictions before the end of the games. Worst case, I’ll post on Wednesday. Thanks for reading. If you have questions, comments, or complaints, send me a note. If you like what you see, please share with others. G