G’s Exploration or Let’s Finish This Up

Welcome back, college football fans, to episode 673 which is the summary of our preseason strength of schedule (PS-SOS) countdown as we are but two days away from the first games of the season. If you are just joining us, here’s the good news: everything we talked about (less a few editorial comments) are in the tables below along with some new information.

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As a final reminder (for this season) of the process behind PS-SOS, we started with each of the 266 Division I (D1) teams (both FBS [those who are bowl eligible] and FCS [those who are not]) and reviewed their schedules. We had to have some sort of value for the teams they play so we used our 2025 Score metric (the value based on a combination of performance and strength of schedule metrics that we use to rank the teams), adjusting the D1 Scores for away or neutral site games (those are more “valuable” than home games), and applying an adjusted value for non-D1 opponents (this includes divisions II and III as well as NAIA – only applicable to FCS games). We then take the mean for each team and that is PS-SOS. We use last year’s Score because until the first games end this Thursday night, every team is tied for first (or last) with a Score of 0.000. While we recognize that some team’s opponents will be better (and worse) than last year, we have no way to “know” which ones. FYI, any preseason poll, especially those that rank the “best” teams before games are played are based on a combination of guesswork, history, and possible some interviews. None of the models are right – some are useful. All preseason ranking polls (human or computer) apply unnecessary bias to the process. That is why we don’t have one. After today’s post, we will not speak of PS-SOS again for one reason: it is irrelevant once the games begin and not connected to the 2026 GCR.

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But today, we wanted to summarize our just-for-fun foray into the teams that challenge themselves (or not). Before we sum up the conferences, let’s list some individual teams. Starting with the FCS (Big Sky, CAA, Ivy, MEAC, MVC, BSOV, PAT, Pioneer, SoCon, SLAN, SWAC, UAC, and Indies), we compiled the Top 15 most-challenged schedules and the Bottom 15 least-challenged schedules for the 128 teams. The numbers following the team’s name are the PS-SOS and the overall rank (out of 266 teams). Note: Chicago St is playing football for the first time ever and not playing a “real” FCS schedule. Note part 2: West Florida promoted to FCS from Division II and is playing a true FCS schedule.

RankMost-Challenged FCSConfLeast-Challenged FCSConf
1Merrimack [5.32 (139)]IndieChicago St [2.36 (266)]Indie
2Portland St [5.21 (140)]Big SkyJackson St [2.55 (265)]SWAC
3Abilene Chr [4.78 (141)]UACSC St [2.63 (264)]MEAC
4Towson [4.72 (142)]CAADayton [2.89 (263)]Pioneer
5N Iowa [4.64 (143)]MVCAlabama A&M [2.96 (262)]SWAC
6Idaho [4.57 (144)]Big SkyMorehead St [3.04 (261)]Pioneer
7Fordham [4.54 (145)]PATAlabama St [3.05 (260)]SWAC
8William & Mary [4.53 (146)]PATSteph F Austin [3.08 (259)]SLAN
9Howard [4.5 (147)]MEACAlcorn St [3.09 (258)]SWAC
10Utah Tech [4.49 (148)]Big SkyMS Valley [3.23 (257)]SWAC
11Citadel [4.47 (149)]SoConRio Grande [3.26 (256)]SLAN
12Holy Cross [4.47 (150)]PATNC A&T [3.26 (255)]CAA
13E Kentucky [4.45 (151)]UACSt Thomas [3.26 (254)]Pioneer
14Mercyhurst [4.42 (152)]NECWest Florida [3.26 (253)]UAC
15Samford [4.41 (153)]SoConDavidson [3.27 (252)]Pioneer

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There are 70 Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, and UCONN) teams fighting for the automatic playoff spot. 13 of these teams play a more challenging schedule than the least-challenged Core 4 team! Our top and bottom 15 are below. Note: Sacramento St promoted to the Group of 6 joining the MAC. Note part 2: North Dakota St promoted joining the Mountain West).

RankMost-Challenged Group 6ConfLeast-Challenged Group 6Conf
1Rice [8.25 (65)]AmerNorth Dakota St [6.4 (138)]MWC
2Oregon St [8.23 (66)]P12Toledo [6.51 (137)]MAC
3Utah St [8.19 (68)]P12UMASS [6.52 (136)]MAC
4Tulane [8.08 (71)]AmerBuffalo [6.57 (135)]MAC
5Charlotte [8.04 (72)]AmerTulsa [6.57 (134)]Amer
6Boise St [7.99 (73)]P12Sacramento St [6.66 (133)]MAC
7Temple [7.97 (74)]AmerLouisiana [6.69 (132)]Sun
8Southern Miss [7.9 (75)]SunOhio [6.73 (131)]MAC
9UTSA [7.88 (76)]AmerWyoming [6.74 (130)]MWC
10Colorado St [7.87 (77)]P12E Michigan [6.75 (129)]MAC
11Ga Southern [7.82 (78)]SunHawaii [6.8 (128)]MWC
12FAU [7.8 (79)]AmerMid Tenn [6.84 (127)]C-USA
13Missouri St [7.79 (80)]C-USAAir Force [6.85 (126)]MWC
14Memphis [7.77 (82)]AmerFIU [6.91 (125)]C-USA
15Washington St [7.76 (83)]P12New Mexico [6.92 (124)]MWC

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There are 68 Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame) teams. The ACC has 3 in the top 15 but 7 in the bottom. The Big 12 only has Baylor in the top and 3 teams in the bottom. The Big Ten is the epitome of extremes with 6 in the top (including the top 2) and 4 in the bottom. The SEC has 5 in the top and none in the bottom. I’ve read a few articles this preseason about Texas Tech’s (lack of a) schedule which the school is blaming on “no one wants to play us.” Somehow every other Core 4 team is in the Top 70, and Tech is 11 places behind that. To get the point difference between TXTC and Houston, look at Ohio St and Nebraska: a 0.34 PS-SOS difference. There is more differential between the bottom two and between Houston and Notre Dame at 10th easiest.

RankMost-Challenged Core 4ConfLeast-Challenged Core 4Conf
1Ohio St [10.03 (1)]Big TenTexas Tech [7.79 (81)]Big 12
2Michigan [9.91 (2)]Big TenHouston [8.13 (70)]Big 12
3North Carolina [9.85 (3)]ACCPittsburgh [8.16 (69)]ACC
4Stanford [9.85 (4)]ACCVirginia [8.23 (67)]ACC
5Texas [9.79 (5)]SECRutgers [8.29 (64)]Big Ten
6Northwestern [9.7 (6)]Big TenUCF [8.39 (63)]Big 12
7Nebraska [9.69 (7)]Big TenClemson [8.39 (62)]ACC
8Oklahoma [9.67 (8)]SECMiami FL [8.42 (61)]ACC
9Arkansas [9.59 (9)]SECWisconsin [8.43 (60)]Big Ten
10Purdue [9.58 (10)]Big TenNotre Dame [8.45 (59)]Indie
11Michigan St [9.55 (11)]Big TenSMU [8.54 (58)]ACC
12Mississippi St [9.5 (12)]SECPenn St [8.54 (57)]Big Ten
13Baylor [9.48 (13)]Big 12Maryland [8.57 (56)]Big Ten
14Kentucky [9.48 (14)]SECCalifornia [8.6 (55)]ACC
15Boston College [9.45 (15)]ACCNC St [8.64 (54)]ACC

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We hope you enjoyed that breakdown. Over 25 posts, we went through all of the conferences (including two sets of independent teams). Here is the summary from most-challenged conference to least-challenged. The PS-SOS is the mean value for each conference. The Avg Rank is the mean individual rank for each conference’s members out of 266.

RankConf (Teams)PS-SOSAvg RankMost-Challenged TeamLeast-Challenged Team
1SEC (16)9.29223.9Texas [9.79 (5)]South Carolina [9.03 (40)]
2B1G (18)9.14031.7Ohio St [10.03 (1)]Rutgers [8.29 (64)]
3ACC (17)8.94839.5North Carolina [9.85 (3)]Pittsburgh [8.16 (69)]
4B12 (16)8.86942.8Baylor [9.48 (13)]Texas Tech [7.79 (81)]
5P12 (8)7.82275.0Oregon St [8.23 (66)]San Diego St [7.36 (101)]
6IND (2)7.70990.0Notre Dame [8.45 (59)]UCONN [6.97 (121)]
7AAC (14)7.67686.7Rice [8.25 (65)]Tulsa [6.57 (134)]
8SUN (14)7.310104.0Southern Miss [7.9 (75)]Louisiana [6.69 (132)]
9USA (10)7.276109.0Missouri St [7.79 (80)]Mid Tenn [6.84 (127)]
10MAC (13)7.009116.7Kent St [7.7 (87)]Toledo [6.51 (137)]
11MWC (10)6.952123.3UNLV [7.42 (96)]North Dakota St [6.4 (138)]
12PAT (10)4.237173.4Fordham [4.54 (145)]Georgetown [3.66 (224)]
13IVY (8)4.146173.9Dartmouth [4.38 (155)]Princeton [3.74 (214)]
14NEC (8)4.064183.0Mercyhurst [4.42 (152)]Robert Morris [3.52 (232)]
15SKY (13)4.044187.1Portland St [5.21 (140)]S Utah [3.36 (248)]
16MVC (9)4.021185.1N Iowa [4.64 (143)]Illinois St [3.37 (245)]
17UAC (8)4.013188.9Abilene Chr [4.78 (141)]West Florida [3.26 (253)]
18SCN (10)3.989189.1Citadel [4.47 (149)]E Tenn St [3.39 (241)]
19FCS (2)3.844202.5Merrimack [5.32 (139)]Chicago St [2.36 (266)]
20CAA (13)3.808205.2Towson [4.72 (142)]NC A&T [3.26 (255)]
21BSC (8)3.672218.5Gardner Webb [4 (182)]W Illinois [3.31 (250)]
22STH (10)3.626215.5Houston Chr [4.11 (176)]Steph F Austin [3.08 (259)]
23MEAC (6)3.563220.5Howard [4.5 (147)]SC St [2.63 (264)]
24SWAC (12)3.396233.6Prairie View [3.93 (192)]Jackson St [2.55 (265)]
25PFL (11)3.341244.4San Diego [3.69 (219)]Dayton [2.89 (263)]

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That’s it for today and with that the 2026 PS-SOS is a thing of the past (unless someone comments or questions). Tune in tomorrow for a G’s Explanation in which we will discuss our season schedule, process changes, and other important preparation for the football season. Thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), commenting or making suggestions (it’s how we improve), and sharing with others (it’s how we grow). Until tomorrow, JoJo and G

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