G’s Exploration or The Last of the MO-FCS Conferences

Posted on by G Robert

Happy Sunday. I’m sitting here pulling the numbers for today’s post while watching some live golf. It certainly provides a bit of hope in this covid era. Speaking of hope, this post ends the conference by conference preseason SOS analysis for the FCS teams focused on the 13th and 12th most difficultly scheduled in the country. In a couple of days, I’ll have a final FCS listing from 1-127 followed by the first touch with the FBS.

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With no further ado, let’s look at the 13th place and 2nd most difficult FCS conference, the 9-team Ohio Valley Conference averaging 4.451. Just for reference, that SOS average is higher than the teams with the most difficult schedules in the Ivy, FCS Independents, Patriot, Pioneer, and SWAC. As a reminder the format is Team: average adjusted opponent win total which is preseason SOS (rank out of 257) [2019 actual final SOS ranking our of 256: 2019 wins-2019 losses]. Here’s the breakdown:

  1. Tennessee Martin: 5.750 (117) [112: 7-5]
  2. Murray St: 4.989 (136) [131: 4-8]
  3. E Illinois: 4.886 (139) [149: 1-11]
  4. Tennessee Tech: 4.727 (143) [213: 6-6]
  5. Austin Peay: 4.330 (165) [231: 11-4]
  6. E Kentucky: 4.091 (182) [183: 7-5]
  7. SEMO: 3.818 (200) [192: 9-4]
  8. Jacksonville St: 3.773 (206) [205: 6-6]
  9. Tennessee St: 3.693 (210) [3-9]

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Tennessee Martin plays at conference foe Austin Peay (worth 8.25 points) and finishing the season at Alabama (11-2 worth 16.5 points) and Memphis (12-2, 13.5). They have a more difficult preseason SOS than 13 Group of 5 schools. On the flip side, Tennessee State has only 1 game higher than UT-Martin’s average – and that is a duplicate game – at Austin Peay. No team in this conference is playing a noticeably easier schedule year over year, but Tennessee Tech and Austin Peay face harder ones. Look for the Governors to drop out of first place, and keep an eye on SEMO to take that spot.

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And the most difficult schedule in the FCS, as a confernce, belongs to the Missouri Valley Football Conference (hence the MO in the title). Its 11 teams, including newcomer North Dakota, average 4.655 which only 13 non-MVFC teams exceed. I’m going to talk about 3 teams in this conference instead of 2.

  1. Missouri St: 5.943 (107) [135: 1-10]
  2. North Dakota St: 5.159 (131) [208: 16-0]
  3. W Illinois: 5.068 (135) [154: 1-11]
  4. S Illinois: 4.977 (137) [165: 7-5]
  5. N Iowa: 4.955 (138) [152: 10-5]
  6. North Dakota: 4.682 (146) [153: 7-5]
  7. South Dakota: 4.591 (150) [113: 5-7]
  8. South Dakota St: 4.477 (157) [138: 8-5]
  9. Illinois St: 4.114 (180) [178: 5-7]
  10. Youngstown St: 3.682 (211) [174: 6-6]
  11. Indiana St: 3.557 (223) [210: 5-7]

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Missouri St (and W Illinois) just like taking their lumps, I guess. Last year, 1 win with the most difficult schedule and this year, they face an even harder one. 22 Group of 5 teams (out of 65) have easier schedules than MO State. The biggest games they have are at Oklahoma (12-2 worth 18) and reigning FCS champion North Dakota State (worth 8). At least they get the Bison at home. Indiana St does have the Bison at home as well, but their next most difficult game is at South Dakota St (8-5 worth 6). Look for South Dakota and South Dakota St to improve, but it would take a miracle to knock down the champs (I coulda been a contenda!!!).

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Speaking of the champs, their schedule gets much tougher this year because of a week 1 game at Oregon (12-2 worth 18). As far as the conference or the FCS championship is concerned that game is pretty useless, but the Bison have a 37 game winning streak going (last loss was in 2017) – the longest ever (breaking their own record) in FCS history. In fact, it ties Yale (twice) for the 3rd longest ever. If they pull the very unlikely upset (or if this game is cancelled but the rest of the season is played out), they will most likely take over first place for all Division I. Here is the countdown (there were no divisions in football during Yale’s streak:

  1. Oklahoma – 47 games from 1953-1957
  2. Washington – 40 games from 1908-1914 (note: Oregon St stopped the streak with a tie. Washington has the longest unbeaten streak at 64 with 60 wins)
  3. Yale – 37 games from 1887-1889 and 1890-1893 (both streaks broken by Princeton)

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That’s it for this episode. I hope you’ve enjoyed getting to know the FCS conferences a little bit. Please comment as you’d like, very appreciated, and share with others. See you next time, G