Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college sports fans, for episode 654, part 7 of our 25-conference preseason strength of schedule (PS-SOS) countdown. So far, we’ve talked about the Pioneer League (#25 at an average PS-SOS of 3.327), the SWAC (24th at 3.396), the MEAC (23rd at 3.563), the Southland Conference (22nd at 3.626), the Big South/Ohio Valley Conference (21st at 3.672), and the CAA (20th at 3.808). Today, we reveal the 19th most-challenged conference for 2026.
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There is no good way to predict how good teams will be before the season starts. Some computer ranking folks use historical data. We believe that is flawed due to turnover at the college level which is made even more difficult to predict with NIL and the open transfer portal – not bad, just not a strong prediction model. Other computer ranking folks use individual player data, which is a little better, but still flawed due, in part, to the same reasons, but amplified by assumptions that non-starters will behave consistently when they get the nod. For the GCR, all teams are currently tied for first with, technically undefined performance and strength of schedule metrics (because the denominator is 0), but let’s make it simpler by saying those undefined scores are 0.000. Right now, the predictor in the GCR is picking the home team by about 3 points, regardless of opponent, and neutral site games are pick em’s.
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We recognize that our PS-SOS ranking is flawed. The biggest assumption is that each team will have the same Score (a combination of those performance and strength of schedule metrics) as last season. We know that is not going to happen. Some team that won 10 or more last year will have a losing season. There will be at least one Cinderella that no one expected. Teams lose players and drop a notch – or they get better. Players transfer and have career years – or they flop. Players get hurt and miss most of the season – or they play through with lesser impact. Replacement players become superstars – or fan disappointments. Coaches lose their jobs. Miracles happen. It’s not just football, it’s college football. A bunch of teenagers and early 20-somethings. We have never understood why people bet on sports. The age range of the typical college athlete (or pro athlete for that matter), and we say this will all due respect, is not the most predictable of ages. But that is a sidebar. We take the 2026 schedule for each team and overlay it with their opponents’ 2025 GCR Scores. There is a method to assign value to non-Division I (D1) teams, and an adjustment given for away and neutral site games (those are more difficult than home games). Then we take the mean PS-SOS for each team and rank them. We split the teams into their respective conferences, take the mean of the members. That gives us our results for the annual countdown. PS-SOS is scaled so that we can look at each team’s metric and think of the value as the average number of wins their opponent’s “will have” assuming each game is on a neutral site and against an FBS (Core 4 and Group of 6) team. Because FCS schedules are FCS heavy (of course), their PS-SOS tends to be lower than FBS teams. The most-challenged teams will have PS-SOS hovering around 10.000 while the least-challenged float around 3.000.
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Today, we are ready for #19 which is not even a conference, but two teams that have nothing to do with each other. Last season, there were two FCS Independent teams, Merrimack and St Francis, who had both dropped out of the Northeast Conference (NEC) for all sports. Over the summer, St Francis dropped from the FCS ranks to Division III for football. At the same time, Chicago St decided to play football for the first time ever at any level. Next year, they will join the NEC but will be an Indie this season. Because there is no past, any team playing Chicago St this year was credited with an opponent Score of 0.000. We thought about assigning them the lowest FCS Score from last season or the mean FCS Score, but we felt the most logical was 0.000. The GCR is all about teams earning their ranks and CHST hasn’t earned anything yet. They also are playing the weakest schedule in D1 with a PS-SOS of 2.36 which includes 4 (four!) games against non-D1 opponents. Merrimack, on the other hand, is playing the most difficult FCS schedule (139th overall) with a PS-SOS of 5.32, pulling the non-conference FCS Independents to 19th on the list with a PS-SOS of 3.844. In the table below, (4) indicates a game against a Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame) opponent, (G) indicates a game against a Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, and UCONN) foe, (F) indicates a game against an FCS peer, and (D) indicates a non-D1 challenge. There are no neutral site games scheduled. With no further ado, we are proud to present the 2026 FCS Independents.
| Team Conf Rank | Home Field | 2025 Record (Rank) | 2026 PS SOS (Rank) | Home Games | Away Games | Hardest | Easiest |
| Merrimack Warriors (1) | North Andover, MA | 4-8 (222) | 5.32 (139) | Rhode Island (F), New Haven (F), New Hampshire (F), Wagner (F), Sacred Heart (F) | Delaware (G), Maine (F), Tarleton (F), Yale (F), Dartmouth (F), Wake Forest (4), Monmouth (F) | at Wake Forest (11.29) | Wagner (2.22) |
| Chicago St Cougars (2) | Bridgeview, IL | — | 2.36 (266) | Roosevelt (D), KY Chr (D), Norfolk St (F), UFTL (D), Lynchburg (D) | UT Martin (F), Butler (F), Tarleton (F), NC A&T (F), Lindenwood (F) | at Tarleton (6.58) | Roosevelt (0.06) |
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That’s it for today. We will be back on the 22nd for number 18 in the countdown. Until then, thank you for reading and, especially, sharing with others. We are growing quickly and are thankful for our readers, JoJo and G.
