Greetings and welcome to August, aka level 8 of 2020. The major conferences have made their “final” scheduling decisions despite conflicts between conferences and threats of multiple player hold outs. Next time, I’m going to summarize all of the mess (hoping to hear some more from the Group of 5 and FCS conferences by then). This post is all about finishing up what I started months ago: preseason scheduling. I know, I know, it doesn’t matter anymore. You are right. However, I did pick on Clemson just before conferences started changing things and it seems only fair to pick on other teams that were planning the take the easy road to “greatness” (or not) as well as honor those who, through their own effort, contract games, or conference scheduling faced the toughest roads.
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So I put together some charts to help us understand and also to help us build up a little to the most difficult individual schedules and the most difficult conference. First let’s talk about August and September.
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In these charts, I’ve listed the top 5 most difficult schedules for the time period regardless of conference. The score, since it’s been a long while between posts, is equivalent to the average number of wins a team’s opponent’s have, adjusted for home/away and Power 5, Group of 5, or FCS. Think of the number as this: if a team played all games on a neutral site and all of their opponents were Power 5 (after the league adjustment), the average wins would be x. That’s close enough to what it’s really measuring to count. BYU leads the way early with games on the road against Utah, Arizona St, and Minnesota while facing Michigan St at home. The Cougars being an independent may or may not get to play this year at all, but kudos for the most challenging start. Here’s the overall chart and I’ll explain the rest of it.
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As a reminder, green is Power 5, yellow is Group of 5, and black is FCS. In the first 3 columns we see Mississippi had far and above the most difficult Power 5 schedule with Baylor, Auburn, and LSU in the first month. The second section is the Power 5’s easiest schedules. Many schools schedule their FCS team and a couple of G5 teams, but Illinois plays a schedule (Illinois St, UConn, and Bowling Green) so easy that only 19 schools (all FCS) have a weaker start. Compare the scores in the first 2 sections – clearly a group of teams challenge and a group of teams want to rack up easy wins early. BTW, the number next to the team name is the overall ranking (out of 257) and the T indicates they are in a tied position. Oklahoma St plays the same level of difficulty by the end of September as FCS team Bethune Cookman and Mississippi St is tied with Wofford. The last section is the 5 most challenged conferences. In the early going, most of the Power 5 is…wanting. But hey, it’s early. October is the make or break month. And here we go
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On a side note, I find myself using future and past tense interchangeably. I thought about going back and correcting it, but it’s 2020 so we all just have to live with it. 😒
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October brings the chillier air and more important games for most teams. Let’s look at the chart
Mississippi St makes up for its lackluster start with a massive October playing Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU, and Auburn. Halloween would have been a weekly event for the Bulldogs. On the flip side, there are always teams that get a month off. Indiana plays the equivalent schedule of E Michigan (MAC) and Louisiana (Sun Belt) while Arizona St could switch with Temple (American) and ULM (Sun Belt). At the conference level, the ACC is further from 4th place as the 4th place Pac 12 from first. The Big 10 wins the month and take a commanding lead after a semi-strong Aug/Sept. But, isn’t November separation month? Let’s look.
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November is a wonderful month in college football. There’s the beginning of clarity (or delicious confusion) over division leaders, big games every week, rivalry Saturday, it’s just about the best there is. Personally, I like November better than most of the bowl games. No one sits out because they are going pro and the games seem to count more. Here’s the chart:
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The first thing to notice is last year’s #1 SOS team has a difficult November with games at LSU’s and Clemson’s Death Valley while playing Georgia at home. Even the FCS team before the Clemson game made the playoffs next year. It’s the most difficult month for any team during the year but Nebraska and Maryland have significant challenges as well. Not that it would have mattered in a non-COVID, but that trio would need to have 5-6 wins already to make a bowl game – there’s no Thanksgiving for them. On the flip side, the Big 10 Cinderella (who not so coincidentally had the easiest schedule in the conference) for 2019 plays a cake walk November with Purdue, Northwestern, and Nebraska. Seriously, a November schedule for a Big 10 school that is not much different (on paper) than W Carolina (FCS)? Penn St and Florida are much better – in fact the Gators play a schedule similar to 2 FCS schools (South Dakota and Kennesaw St). Oh, and Big 12 favorite Oklahoma gets a waltz through the month as well. Overall, the SEC wins the month in a close one and the ACC is once again way behind the rest of the Power 5. So how do these months come together – which teams ha(d)ve the biggest challenge and which seem to think college sports isn’t about teaching fair competition? Here we go.
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Overall the Big 10 has the most challenging schedule followed by the SEC. The two conferences fight to the bitter end to win the non-existent but coveted GCR SOS Conference award. Here’s the chart:
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The Big 12 and the ACC will fight it out for weakest while the Pac-12 shows some promise. Overall, the Gamecocks look to continue their losing ways with a schedule a full point higher than last year’s #1 projection (they did end up #1 in SOS as well). I find it interesting the 2 ACC schools made the top 3 but the overall conference is last. It’s because NC St is 4th in the ACC, but 34th overall. It just goes downhill from there. Clemson plays the same degree of difficulty as South Alabama – of the SUN BELT!!! But the Aggies of Texas A&M lead the Power 5 with a remarkable under 5.000 score. Arkansas St (also of the SUN BELT!!!!) has a similar schedule. The uniformed boys play Abilene Christian, North Texas, and Colorado (combined 14-21) – all at home – to start the season. Later they play Fresno St (4-8). Their east rival is South Carolina and they pulled Vanderbilt this year (combined 7-17). The do play LSU to close the season in College Station.
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That’s a wrap for today. Please comment or send me a note. Thank you for reading and especially for sharing. I’ll catch you later, G
