G’s Exploration or What a Day to Be in Search of Number Three!

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 670 as we continue to countdown th7.e 25 Division I (D1) conferences from least-challenged to most-challenged using our preseason strength of schedule (PS-SOS) metric. So far, we’ve completed the 14 FCS (non-bowl eligible conferences such as SoCon, Big Sky, Missouri Valley, Ivy, and so on) before moving to the FBS (bowl-eligible conferences). For those we started with the new Mountain West (11th overall with a PS-SOS of 6.952), the MAC (10th at 7.009), Conference USA (9th at 7.276), the Sun Belt (8th at 7.310), the American (7th at 7.676), the Independents (6th at 7.709), the reformed Pac 12 (5th at 7.822), and the Big 12 (4th at 8.869).

…..

As a quick reminder, the PS-SOS is calculated using each team’s 2025 Score (the GCR metric used to calculate rank and comprised of performance and strength of schedule calculations) overlaid on their 2026 schedules. We have to use last year’s values because each team has a Score of 0.000 in 2026 – no games have yet been played. With just 10 days to go until the first games are played, those values will begin to define which teams are exceptional or average or rotten, but until that first final whistle, all teams are equal. The PS-SOS is scaled such that the most-challenged teams approach 10.000 while the least-challenged teams float around 3.000. We can then view the PS-SOS as each team’s average opponent assuming an FBS team on a neutral field. Core 4 references teams from the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame.

…..

But today is about the third most-challenged conference, the second least-challenged Core 4 conference, the 17-team (or 17 and 1/2 team) Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC). In other sports, Notre Dame is a member of the ACC but remain independent in football – although they do play six ACC teams (four at home). The ACC, in response to the SEC joining the Big 12 and Big Ten in having 9 conference games, decided to take a couple of years to get there completely. Some teams have a 9-game conference schedule this season, while others just play 8 in conference, but every team plays at least 10 Core 4 opponents (Boston College, Georgia Tech, and Louisville each play 11) by conference rule. While this scheduling seems a little odd, the whole “Notre Dame playing a partial conference schedule that doesn’t count in the standings” thing makes things difficult. If that’s all it was, there are easy workarounds. The problem is exacerbated in two other ways: 1) Clemson (South Carolina), Florida St (Florida), Georgia Tech (Georgia), and Louisville (Kentucky) have rivalry games against Core 4 opponents annually. That would mean that in a pure 9-game conference schedule those teams would have 11 (9 ACC, rival, Notre Dame) Core 4 games. 2) it is common for ACC teams to play Core 4 opponents in the various opening weekend kickoff games. Just this season, Georgia Tech (Colorado), Clemson (LSU), Louisville (Mississippi), Boston College (Cincinnati), and California (UCLA). In 2025, Georgia Tech (Colorado), Syracuse (Tennessee), Florida St (Alabama), Clemson (LSU), Virginia Tech (South Carolina), Miami FL (Notre Dame), and North Carolina (TCU) all played in week 1.

…..

To us, the answer is obvious: either Notre Dame fully joins the ACC so that the 9-game conference schedule works equitably or they pay the high fees the ACC is famous for to leave. We at the GCR love to see teams challenge themselves by playing difficult schedules, but this archaic notion of independent Notre Dame negative impacts other teams. If they became a full member and Georgia Tech (for example) scheduled not only the Bulldogs in the rivalry game, but also another Core 4 team, that’s on the Jackets – we would applaud their strength in self-challenging. With an overall PS-SOS of 8.948 and a mean rank of 39.5 out of 266, the ACC has two teams in the top 5 PS-SOS (North Carolina and Stanford), but with 68 Core 4 teams, they have 4 teams ranked 61 or lower (Pittsburgh, Virginia, Clemson, and Miami FL). In the table below, (4) indicates a non-ACC Core 4 opponent, (G) indicates a Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, or UCONN) foe, (F) indicates an FCS game, and (N) indicates a neutral site matchup. With no further ado, we are proud to present the 2026 ACC:

Team
(Conf Rank)
Home Field2025 Record (Rank)2026 PS SOS (Rank)Home GamesAway/Neutral GamesHardestEasiest
North Carolina Tar Heels (1)Chapel Hill, NC4-8 (94)9.85 (3)E Tenn St (F), Notre Dame (4), Syracuse, Miami FL, Louisville, NC StTCU (N4), Clemson, Pittsburgh, Duke, UCONN (G), Virginiaat Virginia (12.20)E Tenn St (3.78)
Stanford Cardinal (2)Stanford, CA4-8 (84)9.85 (4)Hawaii (G), Miami FL, Georgia Tech, Elon (F), NC St, SMUDuke, Wake Forest, Notre Dame (4), Louisville, Virginia Tech, Californiaat Notre Dame (13.69)Elon (3.56)
Boston College Eagles (3)Chestnut Hill, MA2-10 (119)9.45 (15)Rutgers (4), Maine (F), Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida St, SyracuseCincinnati (4), SMU, Georgia Tech, Duke, Notre Dame (4), Miami FLat Notre Dame (13.69)Maine (3.37)
Duke Blue Devils (4)Durham, NC9-5 (28)9.36 (20)Tulane (G), Stanford, William & Mary (F), North Carolina, Boston College,
Clemson
Illinois (4), Georgia Tech, NC St, Miami FL, Wake Forestat Miami FL (13.48)William & Mary (3.66)
Syracuse Orange (5)Syracuse, NY3-9 (107)9.32 (22)New Hampshire (F), California, Louisville, SMU, Clemson, Notre Dame (4)Pittsburgh, UCONN (G), Virginia, North Carolina, NC St, Boston Collegeat Virginia (12.20)New Hampshire (4.29)
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6)Winston-Salem,
NC
9-4 (30)9.22 (26)Akron (G), Miami FL, Stanford, Virginia, Merrimack (F), DukePurdue (4), Louisville, NC St, California, SMU, Georgia Techat SMU (11.82)Merrimack (2.79)
Florida St Seminoles (7)Tallahassee, FL5-7 (59)9.16 (29)New Mexico St (G), SMU, C Arkansas (F), Virginia, Clemson, NC St, Florida (4)Alabama (4), Louisville, Miami FL, Boston College, Pittsburghat Miami FL (13.48)C Arkansas (2.41)
Louisville Cardinals (8)Louisville, KY9-4 (22)9.05 (37)Villanova (F), SMU, Wake Forest, Florida St, Stanford, PittsburghMississippi (N4), NC St, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Kentucky (4)vs Mississippi (12.20)Villanova (4.58)
Virginia Tech Hokies (9)Blacksburg, VA3-9 (100)8.98 (43)VMI (F), Old Dominion (G), Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Stanford, VirginiaBoston College, Maryland (4), California, Clemson, SMU, Miami FLat Miami FL (13.48)VMI (1.60)
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (10)Atlanta, GA9-5 (31)8.89 (46)Colorado (4), Tennessee (4), Mercer (F), Duke, Boston College, Louisville, Wake ForestStanford, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Clemson, Georgia (4)at Georgia (13.40)Mercer (4.25)
NC St Wolfpack (11)Raleigh, NC8-5 (33)8.64 (54)Richmond (F), App St (G), Louisville, Wake Forest, California, Duke, SyracuseVirginia (N), Vanderbilt (4), Stanford, Florida St, North Carolinaat Vanderbilt (12.30)Richmond (3.34)
California Golden Bears (12)Berkeley, CA7-6 (57)8.60 (55)UCLA (4), Wagner (F), Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Stanford, PittsburghSyracuse, UNLV (G), SMU, NC St, Virginiaat Virginia (12.20)Wagner (2.22)
SMU Mustangs (13)Dallas, TX9-4 (19)8.54 (58)UC Davis (F), Missouri St (G), Boston College, Virginia, California, Virginia
Tech, Wake Forest
Florida St, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame (4), Stanfordat Notre Dame (13.69)UC Davis (4.06)
Miami FL Hurricanes (14)Miami Gardens, FL13-3 (6)8.42 (61)Florida A&M (F), C Michigan (G), Florida St, Pittsburgh, Duke, Virginia Tech,
Boston College
Stanford, Wake Forest, Clemson, North Carolina, Notre Dame (4)at Notre Dame (13.69)Florida A&M (2.49)
Clemson Tigers (15)Clemson, SC7-6 (47)8.39 (62)Ga Southern (G), North Carolina, Miami FL, Chrls So (F), Virginia Tech, Georgia
Tech, South Carolina (4)
LSU (4), California, Florida St, Syracuse, DukeMiami FL (11.73)Chrls So (2.60)
Virginia Cavaliers (16)Charlottesville, VA11-3 (14)8.23 (67)Norfolk St (F), Delaware (G), Syracuse, Duke, California, North CarolinaNC St (N), West Virginia (N4), Florida St, SMU, Wake Forest, Virginia Techat SMU (11.82)Norfolk St (1.74)
Pittsburgh Panthers (17)Pittsburgh, PA8-5 (36)8.16 (69)Miami OH (G), UCF (4), Syracuse, Bucknell (F), North Carolina, Georgia Tech,
Florida St
Virginia Tech, Boston College, Miami FL, Louisville, Californiaat Miami FL (13.48)Bucknell (2.78)

…..

That’s it for today. Because there are just two conferences left (Big Ten and SEC), we are going to wait until Thursday to post the second most-challenged conference, followed up by the most-challenged big reveal on Sunday. That will leave us just four days to get our ducks in a row for the following Thursday night kickoff games. Until then, thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), providing comments and suggestions (it’s how we get better), and sharing with others (it’s how we continue to grow), JoJo and G.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *