Welcome back, college sports fans, as we continue our football preseason 2026 review. Last time, we talked about some changes in the GCR reporting this year, mostly on frequency of posts, but also about the concept of predicting spread cover as well as straight up winner. After talking with friend and confidante Carl L., we’ve agreed to continue cover predictions with a focus on Vegas “accuracy.” Vegas, as Carl pointed out, sets the initial spread, but changes are common based on how people are betting: when more than expected bet on Team A, the spread gets higher to force more to bet on Team B. The house always wins.
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This post, our 644th, is the first of three informational bits of research into changes for 2026. The last time there were no conference realignments was 2009. Since then, the cascades from the early 2010s have rocked the sport with no end in sight. Conference USA, as an example, with the changes this year now have FIU as the oldest team (joined in 2013). Even now, the bickering over the FBS playoff structure (especially between the Big Ten and the SEC) has caused Georgia’s head coach, Kirby Smart, to threaten the SEC’s secession from the NCAA. That won’t happen without other major conferences, but the statement is out there. It is possible that the Power schools (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and possibly Notre Dame if they join a conference) could all secede together at some point, but that is probably years from being reality. The mighty dollar strikes again.
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This post is in two parts: first, the 19 full or partial conference changes for the upcoming season, followed by the changes we think could be made that may slow down the changes and threats for the time being.
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Five teams (Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, San Diego St, and Utah St) are leaving the Mountain West and joining the Pac 12 along with ex-Sun Belt member Texas St. To replace them, the Mountain West is adding UTEP (Conference USA), N Illinois (MAC), and North Dakota St (promoting to FBS from FCS Missouri Valley). Hawaii was previously a football-only member of the Mountain West but is converting to a full member. Conference USA also lost LA Tech who is shifting to the Sun Belt. The MAC is bringing in previous FCS (Big Sky) Sacramento St. Big Sky is pulling two UAC teams (S Utah and Utah Tech). The UAC (which was a football only alliance between the WAC and the ASUN) added Division II West Florida and officially changed adopted the name United Athletic Conference for all sports eliminating the WAC name – non-football ASUN schools will remain in the ASUN. Villanova and William & Mary (CAA) will shift to the Patriot League. TN Tech is shifting from the Big South/Ohio Valley Conference to SoCon. Chicago St will play its first ever college football game this year joining the FCS as an independent before flipping to the Northeast Conference next season. The final change is St Francis, formerly of the NEC will drop to Division III. Here is the table summary:
| Conference | Gains (from) | Losses (to) |
| Conference USA | — | LA Tech (Sun Belt), UTEP (Mountain West) |
| MAC | Sacramento St (FCS Big Sky) | N Illinois (MWC) |
| Mountain West | N Illinois (MAC), North Dakota St (FCS Missouri Valley), UTEP (C-USA) – Hawaii as full member | Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Utah St (all Pac 12) |
| Pac 12 | Boise St, Colorado St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Utah St (all MWC), Texas St (Sun Belt) | — |
| Sun Belt | LA Tech (C-USA) | Texas St (Pac 12) |
| Big Sky | S Utah, Utah Tech (both UAC) | Sacramento St (FBS MAC) |
| CAA | — | Villanova, William & Mary (both Patriot) |
| FCS Independents | Chicago St (first football season) | — |
| Missouri Valley | — | North Dakota St (FBS MWC) |
| Northeast | — | St Francis (Division III) |
| Ohio Valley (merged with Big South for football only) | — | TN Tech (SoCon) |
| Patriot League | Villanova, William & Mary (both CAA) | — |
| SoCon | TN Tech (BSOV) | — |
| UAC | — | S Utah, Utah Tech (both Big Sky) |
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As we were working on this post, we had the idea of what a future stable set of conferences for the FBS would look like. In this future, the five Power conferences would have the same number of teams (with the same scheduling rules – an upcoming post). There would be five as we restore the Pac 12 to relevancy. We would eliminate independent teams, making them so irrelevant in the post season (like basketball) that they just don’t exist anymore. That means Notre Dame and UCONN have to join somebody. The Group of 5 would also have the same number of teams as each other, though fewer than the Power conferences. That requires three more FCS schools to step up to the FBS. The conferences are (as much as possible) geographically aligned which led to some hard choices such as moving Oklahoma and Texas back to the Big 12. We tried to keep existing conferences as much as possible while creating better geographical alignment.
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In this future, the Power 5 have 15 teams each with a corresponding Group of 5 conference with 13 teams. While we didn’t take that out to the next step, participating FCS conferences could align (with some overlap) for some form of relegation akin to world soccer. Relegation would be once every 5 years with the worst team in each Power conference demoting to their partner Group of 5 conference, trading places with best in that G5 group. The worst G5 team would relegate to one of the FCS conferences being replaced by their best team. Five years later, it happens again. No team can rebound in the next cycle, so any movement up or down is at least 10 years. This aligned relegation keeps conferences geographically aligned. The smaller G5 conferences allow up to ten additional schools to jump to FBS before full reassessment is required.
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The Power conferences would play 9 conference games (no more than 2 permanent rivalries), 1 each against the other Power conferences (teams that finished in the same position last season – all conference champions play each other the next season), plus one game against one of their Group of 5 partners. That’s 14 games. The top two teams from each Power conference, the top team from each G5 conference and one wild card make up the 16-team playoff. Other teams play in bowl games as today.
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Here is our plan, by conference partnerships (Power 5/Group of 5), alphabetically by Power conference.
| Power (ACC) | Group of 5 (American) |
| Boston College | Army |
| Clemson | Charlotte |
| Duke | Delaware |
| Florida St | East Carolina |
| Georgia Tech | FAU |
| Louisville | Liberty |
| Miami FL | Memphis |
| NC St | Mid Tenn |
| Pittsburgh | Navy |
| Rutgers | Sam Houston |
| Syracuse | Temple |
| UCF | UCONN |
| Virginia | UMASS |
| Wake Forest | — |
| West Virginia | — |
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| Power (Big 12) | Group of 5 (C-USA) |
| Arizona | Arkansas St |
| Arizona St | LA Tech |
| BYU | Louisiana |
| Colorado | Missouri St |
| Houston | North Texas |
| Iowa St | Rice |
| Kansas | South Alabama |
| Kansas St | Southern Miss |
| Missouri | Tarleton (from FCS) |
| Oklahoma | Troy |
| Oklahoma St | Tulane |
| SMU | Tulsa |
| TCU | ULM |
| Texas | — |
| Texas Tech | — |
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| Power (Big Ten) | Group of 5 (MAC) |
| Cincinnati | Akron |
| Illinois | Ball St |
| Indiana | Bowling Green |
| Iowa | Buffalo |
| Maryland | C Michigan |
| Michigan | E Michigan |
| Michigan St | Illinois St (from FCS) |
| Minnesota | Kent St |
| Nebraska | Miami OH |
| Northwestern | Ohio |
| Notre Dame | Toledo |
| Ohio St | W Kentucky |
| Penn St | W Michigan |
| Purdue | — |
| Wisconsin | — |
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| Power (Pac 12) | Group of 5 (Mountain West) |
| Boise St | Air Force |
| California | Hawaii |
| Colorado St | Nevada |
| Fresno St | New Mexico St |
| Oregon | North Dakota St |
| Oregon St | N Illinois |
| San Diego St | Sacramento St |
| Southern Cal | San Jose St |
| Stanford | South Dakota St (from FCS) |
| Texas St | UNLV |
| UCLA | UTEP |
| Utah | UTSA |
| Utah St | Wyoming |
| Washington | — |
| Washington St | — |
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| Power (SEC) | Group of 5 (Sun Belt) |
| Alabama | App St |
| Arkansas | Chattanooga (from FCS) |
| Auburn | Coastal |
| Florida | FIU |
| Georgia | Ga Southern |
| Kentucky | Georgia St |
| LSU | James Madison |
| Mississippi | Jax St |
| Mississippi St | Kennesaw St |
| North Carolina | Marshall |
| South Carolina | Old Dominion |
| Tennessee | South Florida |
| Texas A&M | UAB |
| Vanderbilt | — |
| Virginia Tech | — |
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That’s it for today. Let us know what you think about our alignment plan. Add some consistent rules around NIL (e.g., salary caps) and player transfers (e.g., 2-year minimums for undergraduates) and forever students (e.g., 5-year cap with no redshirts) and postseason (e.g., don’t play, don’t get paid), then we may have something that could last a decade or two.
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We will be back in two weeks to discuss the 2026 rules changes for college football. Until then, thank you for reading and, especially, for sharing with others. See you on the flip side, JoJo and G.
