Men’s Basketball Top 365 and an Apology

Welcome back, college sports fans, as we spend today talking about Men’s Basketball. But first, I have to apologize. During Monday’s post, I said we would have special episodes Tuesday (women) and Thursday (men) about the conference races. Due to some sort of last-minute travel and a little lack of focus on my part, we are postponing that analysis. We are currently aiming for over the weekend. Thank you for bearing with us as we are preparing for the very busy postseason that is college basketball.

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This post is about the Week 15 Men’s Top 365. Teams are seeing the end of the season, nagging (or worse) injuries are piling up, and good teams are losing (sometimes because they are playing other good teams and sometimes because they are upset). Nebraska, for example, who had a tremendous start to the season, has fallen out of the GCR Top 10. Expect more shifting as we move towards the end of the season as those mitigating factors take their toll. These last couple weeks are brutal with the pressure building up not only for the best conference tourney seeding, but also for post-season invitations and placement. Stay tuned in.

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With that, let’s look at some key games over the next seven days. To be on the list below, out of the nearly 340 games (155 just on Saturday), both teams need to have at least 15 wins, or at least one per week of the season.

DayGames to Watch
WedE Tennessee St @ Furman, Arkansas @ Alabama, Dayton @ George Mason, UAB @ Temple, Fort Wayne @ N Kentucky, BYU @ Arizona, Kansas @ Oklahoma St, Vanderbilt @ Missouri, Murray St @ Illinois St, St Marys @ Seattle, Illinois @ Southern Cal, Boise St @ Utah St, Gonzaga @ San Francisco
ThuVermont @ Balt County, Marshall @ App St, Texas St @ South Alabama, CA Baptist @ Utah Valley, Lindenwood @ Tennessee St, Tulane @ North Texas, Northridge @Santa Barbara
FriVCU @ St Louis, St Peters @ Iona, Indiana @ Purdue, Siena @ Merrimack, Bowling Green @ Miami OH
SatNorth Carolina @ Syracuse, Marshall @ Coastal, Ga Southern @ App St, Miami FL @ Virginia, Tennessee @ Vanderbilt, Duquesne @ Dayton, Samford @ Mercer, SIUE @ Tennessee St, Arizona @ Houston, Texas @ Georgia, Missouri @ Arkansas, Winthrop @ High Point, Troy @ South Alabama, West Virginia @ TCU, UCONN @ Villanova, Temple @ Wichita St, San Diego St @ Colorado St, Stanford @ California, Buffalo @ UMASS, Michigan @ Duke, Vermont @ NJ Tech, Furman @ Wofford, Illinois @ UCLA, Illinois St @ Bradley, Pacific @ Gonzaga, Utah St @ Nevada, Santa Clara @ San Francisco, Santa Barbara @ Hawaii, UC San Diego @ UC Irvine, Iowa St @ BYU
SunOhio St @ Michigan St, Iona @ Merrimack, Fairfield @ Quinnipiac, Robert Morris @ Wright St, St Peters @ Siena, Iowa @ Wisconsin
MonLouisville @ North Carolina, Rio Grande @ McNeese, Houston @ Kansas
TueNC St @ Virginia, St Louis @ Dayton, West Virginia @ Oklahoma St, Buffalo @ Akron, Bradley @ UIC, Tennessee @ Missouri, UCF @ BYU, New Mexico @ Nevada, Southern Cal @ UCLA

…..

We keep saying it, but it is crunch time. Certainly, there are teams looking forward to the season being over, but most teams still have something to play for, even if that is just the hope of a few upsets in the conference tourney.

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That’s it for today. In the table below you can use either the Score, RPIF, or both columns to determine a winner. Add 4.5 to the home team and compare the numbers. Note: if the two metrics pick a different winner, the GCR cannot predict the game. If they are in agreement, the differences provide a range for a theoretical point spread. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. Here is the Week 15 Men’s Basketball GCR Top 365 from Michigan to MS Valley, JoJo and G.

RANKTeamRecordSOSScoreRPIRankRPI Factor
1Michigan25-122100.000.6881187.0
2Duke24-22895.330.6743183.2
3Arizona23-22695.160.6752183.4
4UCONN24-25292.350.6597179.1
5Iowa St23-36186.310.63816173.4
6Kansas19-6385.870.6744183.2
7Illinois21-51685.780.6568178.3
8Houston23-36585.740.63519172.6
9Purdue21-51885.400.6549177.7
10Vanderbilt21-44584.930.64213174.5
11Nebraska22-45584.190.63618172.8
12Texas Tech19-7283.490.6715182.3
13Michigan St21-53483.120.64114174.2
14Florida20-6982.440.65010176.6
15North Carolina20-61581.970.64711175.8
16Virginia22-39681.640.61527167.1
17Gonzaga25-212481.210.60829165.2
18Alabama18-7481.160.6616179.6
19Arkansas19-61481.050.64512175.3
20BYU19-62179.860.63815173.4
21St Johns20-55779.260.62224169.0
22Villanova21-56978.030.61228166.3
23Utah St22-311877.620.59933162.8
24St Marys23-410976.380.59735162.2
25UCF18-72075.940.62921170.9
26Louisville19-73375.580.62223169.0
27Clemson20-66874.830.60531164.4
28St Louis24-218974.490.57947157.3
29SMU18-81274.320.62920170.9
30Tennessee18-73973.960.61626167.4
31NC St19-82573.870.62125168.8
32Miami FL21-514071.990.57849157.1
33Kentucky17-9571.730.62822170.7
34Santa Clara22-69571.670.58742159.5
35Yale20-414371.520.57552156.3
36Miami OH26-034071.180.54980149.2
37Wisconsin18-84371.030.60730165.0
38Belmont24-419670.920.56662153.8
39VCU21-67870.790.59139160.6
40Iowa19-77570.410.59040160.3
41Georgia18-86268.310.58941160.1
42Liberty22-328567.940.54685148.4
43Southern Cal18-710866.970.57255155.4
44Seton Hall18-87466.920.58045157.6
45Ohio St17-94666.920.59537161.7
46Indiana17-94866.880.59538161.7
47Virginia Tech17-102466.570.60332163.9
48Wilmington22-426766.250.54390147.6
49California18-88366.230.57551156.3
50George Mason21-517566.080.55574150.8
51Auburn14-11166.000.63717173.1
52New Mexico20-615865.560.55573150.8
53Akron21-522265.490.54686148.4
54San Diego St18-711164.800.56466153.3
55Stanford16-102964.760.59736162.2
56Missouri17-88664.730.57157155.2
57Oklahoma St16-95664.280.58344158.4
58Texas A&M17-89164.240.56761154.1
59McNeese22-526963.890.53598145.4
60UCLA17-97163.760.57353155.7
61Kent St20-715463.460.54981149.2
62South Florida18-87763.400.57156155.2
63Texas17-97663.280.57058154.9
64Steph F Austin24-334762.800.518123140.8
65Nevada17-97362.020.56959154.6
66West Virginia16-98261.560.56467153.3
67TCU16-105961.460.57354155.7
68Tulsa20-621161.390.53597145.4
69Murray St19-911660.930.55278150.0
70CA Baptist19-719860.690.53595145.4
71Grand Canyon17-910059.930.55475150.6
72Arizona St14-12659.550.59834162.5
73Utah Valley18-722158.710.524116142.4
74High Point24-435658.630.498163135.3
75Syracuse15-123258.430.57848157.1
76Boise St15-106358.020.56169152.5
77Marshall17-109957.910.54883148.9
78N Iowa17-1010157.830.54784148.7
79Dayton16-99057.710.55179149.7
80Cincinnati14-122757.310.57946157.3
81Winthrop19-823156.910.516127140.2
82Bradley18-916656.850.527110143.2
83Wake Forest13-121356.760.58543159.0
84Merrimack18-917656.550.526113142.9
85Hawaii18-631856.340.503154136.7
86Charleston17-1012856.080.535100145.4
87North Dakota St21-634155.920.494170134.2
88Colorado14-124455.910.56860154.4
89Troy17-1013355.830.532104144.6
90UC Irvine17-918455.210.520120141.3
91E Tenn St19-829154.770.502156136.4
92UC San Diego18-921754.710.512137139.1
93Austin Peay19-634254.560.490177133.2
94Georgetown13-124054.480.56664153.8
95Baylor13-131754.400.57750156.8
96Quinnipiac18-1018754.290.517126140.5
97LSU14-126054.160.55376150.3
98Sam Houston17-826054.110.504151137.0
99Hofstra17-1016953.790.517124140.5
100St Thomas21-734453.780.486187132.1
101Arkansas St16-1111553.640.530105144.0
102South Alabama19-830953.520.494169134.2
103Wichita St16-1012753.470.528109143.5
104Florida St13-133153.090.56665153.8
105Illinois St17-1019752.780.510140138.6
106William & Mary16-1016252.780.515129140.0
107Xavier13-133652.770.56368153.0
108Siena18-927452.660.499161135.6
109Navy21-635952.570.475213129.1
110Creighton13-134152.430.56070152.2
111Northridge16-1017952.320.512139139.1
112Davidson15-1012652.200.524118142.4
113Rhode Island15-119252.140.534101145.1
114Washington13-134752.040.55772151.4
115Wright St17-1021551.870.503153136.7
116Tulane15-1013551.870.521119141.6
117Colorado St15-1015551.860.514131139.7
118Portland St17-733451.850.482194131.0
119Long Island18-930351.450.490176133.2
120UAB16-1016451.400.512138139.1
121UT Martin20-834351.380.477210129.6
122Wyoming14-128151.100.53596145.4
123Duquesne15-1014550.910.513133139.4
124Geo Wash15-128750.840.532103144.6
125Santa Barbara17-929850.810.489180132.9
126Columbia15-923350.740.497165135.1
127Utah Tech16-1117150.690.507147137.8
128St Bonaventure14-119850.520.528108143.5
129Coastal16-1118150.420.506149137.5
130Notre Dame12-141950.340.56663153.8
131App St18-1029750.130.486186132.1
132Butler13-136450.030.53992146.5
133Seattle16-1119249.990.502157136.4
134St Peters15-925749.990.492172133.7
135UC Davis16-1023749.970.494171134.2
136W Kentucky14-1113649.880.515130140.0
137Mercer17-1027649.840.488181132.6
138Furman17-1027849.780.487182132.3
139Lipscomb16-1120149.750.500159135.9
140Oklahoma13-129349.750.526114142.9
141Depaul13-129449.720.525115142.7
142UMASS15-1213049.720.515128140.0
143Fairfield16-1120749.500.499162135.6
144Marist16-1025449.450.490175133.2
145Mississippi St12-135449.440.54588148.1
146Robert Morris18-1031049.150.480202130.4
147Oakland14-138549.090.528107143.5
148Penn13-1015349.090.507148137.8
149IL Chicago15-1214248.980.509144138.3
150C Arkansas17-1030248.750.480200130.4
151Pacific17-1125948.700.487183132.3
152Buffalo15-1119548.680.498164135.3
153Oregon St14-147048.400.533102144.8
154San Francisco15-1312548.260.512135139.1
155SEMO17-1127348.240.483192131.3
156Towson14-1310248.140.519122141.0
157St Josephs15-1022448.040.491174133.4
158Arlington14-1117348.030.499160135.6
159Stony Brook16-1125547.730.484190131.5
160TN St17-933947.540.465234126.4
161Harvard14-1023647.490.487185132.3
162Wofford17-1032447.430.471221128.0
163Bowling Green16-1126347.410.481196130.7
164FAU14-1212347.340.510143138.6
165UNLV13-1212047.140.510142138.6
166Toledo13-138947.080.519121141.0
167James Madison14-1311947.070.510141138.6
168N Colorado17-1033146.730.465233126.4
169Lindenwood16-1129346.520.475214129.1
170Iona15-1220946.480.489179132.9
171Richmond14-1214146.410.503155136.7
172Green Bay15-1316146.390.496168134.8
173Minnesota12-146746.340.528106143.5
174Samford15-1221346.300.487184132.3
175Texas St17-1131946.240.468227127.2
176Mississippi11-144946.220.54191147.0
177North Texas15-1122646.220.484189131.5
178Kansas St11-152346.020.55277150.0
179Rio Grande15-1222745.780.483193131.3
180Providence11-153045.660.54882148.9
181Ohio14-1314645.590.497166135.1
182N Kentucky16-1130845.520.467229126.9
183Morehead St15-1224145.340.478207129.9
184Memphis12-137245.280.524117142.4
185Montana St15-1129545.250.470225127.7
186Queens15-1224645.240.479206130.2
187Colgate16-1228945.090.471220128.0
188Elon14-1316344.960.491173133.4
189Valparaiso14-1317444.690.489178132.9
190Penn St11-155144.420.53594145.4
191Mid Tenn12-1311044.420.505150137.2
192Temple15-1032144.310.462236125.6
193Kennesaw St14-1128644.300.468226127.2
194Monmouth14-1223244.190.476211129.4
195Vermont17-1035344.120.447273121.5
196Cornell12-1120544.050.482195131.0
197Fordham14-1221643.610.477209129.6
198Northwestern10-16743.600.55871151.6
199LMU13-159743.570.508146138.1
200South Carolina11-155843.480.526112142.9
201Charlotte13-1218643.310.484191131.5
202Jax St13-1222343.220.475212129.1
203Maryland10-153543.050.53993146.5
204Fort Wayne15-1230543.000.459244124.7
205S Illinois12-157942.890.513134139.4
206SIUE17-1036042.820.437290118.8
207Fresno St12-1411242.740.501158136.2
208LA Tech14-1132042.710.455249123.6
209Rutgers10-154242.700.53599145.4
210NJ Tech15-1231742.680.457245124.2
211Missouri St13-1225342.270.467231126.9
212Balt County16-836541.990.424319115.2
213New Mexico St12-1316541.830.481198130.7
214Georgia Tech11-158441.750.508145138.1
215Southern Miss14-1422041.730.471219128.0
216Montana14-1230741.710.454252123.4
217C Connecticut15-1035841.640.436294118.5
218Fullerton13-1417741.640.479204130.2
219Drexel13-1418541.460.478208129.9
220American14-1328241.320.459241124.7
221Portland12-1511341.240.496167134.8
222Bethune13-1323441.200.467230126.9
223Ga Southern15-1233641.170.445277120.9
224North Dakota15-1429240.990.457246124.2
225Idaho14-1232540.930.448268121.7
226Howard17-1036440.900.422325114.7
227FIU12-1320340.800.471218128.0
228Campbell12-1414940.780.481197130.7
229Asheville12-1415140.750.481199130.7
230Abilene Chr12-1415640.610.479203130.2
231Washington St11-166640.310.512136139.1
232Corpus Christi14-1330640.280.449263122.0
233Radford14-1331240.120.448267121.7
234Tarleton13-1329939.520.450259122.3
235Oregon9-17839.390.54687148.4
236Pittsburgh9-171039.230.54489147.8
237Utah9-163739.000.527111143.2
238Alabama A&M15-1136238.960.420327114.1
239Drake12-1613938.730.480201130.4
240New Orleans12-1518038.590.471223128.0
241Hampton12-1422838.510.459243124.7
242Detroit12-1328438.450.450260122.3
243South Dakota14-1333738.440.433302117.7
244Weber St13-1429438.280.448270121.7
245Omaha14-1432937.830.435298118.2
246Greensboro12-1521237.640.460240125.0
247Dartmouth10-1319337.510.463235125.8
248Denver13-1527537.490.448269121.7
249Le Moyne14-1334837.470.426315115.8
250Presbyterian13-1431637.360.439286119.3
251Boston College9-175037.060.517125140.5
252Youngstown St13-1432236.970.435296118.2
253Fla Gulf Coast12-1523936.860.452257122.8
254Marquette9-175336.860.514132139.7
255Mt St Marys12-1525136.600.450261122.3
256Longwood14-1434636.480.423322115.0
257Lamar12-1526136.370.447272121.5
258Cal Poly11-1615236.310.468228127.2
259West Georgia12-1431436.000.435297118.2
260South Dakota St12-1528035.840.441281119.8
261Milwaukee11-1713835.820.473215128.5
262W Carolina10-1514735.810.467232126.9
263Sacred Heart12-1623835.660.449265122.0
264UTEP10-1612935.410.473216128.5
265Grambling11-1429035.340.438287119.0
266Boston Univ13-1532835.330.428309116.3
267Lehigh12-1530135.310.436291118.5
268Manhattan12-1625635.260.445276120.9
269Chrls So13-1533235.120.425317115.5
270SC Upstate11-1620435.060.454254123.4
271Ark Pine Bluff11-1525834.790.442280120.1
272East Texas11-1716834.700.460239125.0
273Nicholls11-1621434.690.451258122.6
274Rice11-1522934.540.447274121.5
275Bellarmine11-1527134.490.439285119.3
276San Diego11-1718234.380.456247123.9
277Mercyhurst13-1435434.080.408336110.9
278Old Dominion10-1810734.020.479205130.2
279NC A&T10-1427733.970.436292118.5
280E Illinois11-1624733.900.441282119.8
281Lowell11-1531133.250.425316115.5
282New Haven11-1531533.200.425318115.5
283East Carolina9-1611433.070.473217128.5
284Southern12-1435233.040.405339110.1
285E Michigan10-1717032.840.454253123.4
286Indiana St10-1720032.190.446275121.2
287Norfolk St13-1436332.190.390354106.0
288Delaware9-1616732.130.453255123.1
289Sacramento St9-1617831.940.449264122.0
290Jacksonville10-1721031.930.443278120.4
291Idaho St10-1721831.660.439284119.3
292W Michigan9-1714431.570.456248123.9
293TN Tech11-1632731.490.415330112.8
294NC Central10-1433831.370.407338110.6
295Chattanooga10-1723531.240.434301117.9
296Jackson St9-1715731.220.452256122.8
297S Utah9-1715931.120.450262122.3
298TX Southern9-1526431.080.428306116.3
299E Kentucky9-1813231.040.460238125.0
300Loyola MD11-1633331.040.410332111.4
301Princeton8-1710530.960.471222128.0
302N Illinois9-1621930.910.437289118.8
303Louisiana9-1813730.900.459242124.7
304E Washington9-1717230.880.448271121.7
305Little Rock10-1726230.740.428305116.3
306Army10-1726530.620.427310116.0
307Houston Chr10-1726630.610.427311116.0
308Cleveland St10-1727930.390.424321115.2
309Florida A&M10-1435030.340.397348107.9
310N Arizona10-1728330.300.423323115.0
311Incarnate Word10-1729630.030.420328114.1
312La Salle7-183829.630.503152136.7
313New Hampshire8-1619429.500.438288119.0
314Brown8-1525029.440.426314115.8
315Georgia St9-1820629.190.436293118.5
316Morgan St10-1436128.950.382359103.8
317Stetson9-1824528.310.424320115.2
318UC Riverside8-1912228.200.455251123.6
319Wagner9-1633027.900.400344108.7
320Prairie View10-1635527.690.383358104.1
321Long Beach8-1818327.620.435295118.2
322C Michigan8-1818827.540.434299117.9
323Bakersfield8-1819027.510.434300117.9
324San Jose St7-198027.290.470224127.7
325Bucknell8-1914827.270.442279120.1
326Holy Cross9-1830027.170.409334111.1
327Albany9-1733526.710.394350107.1
328Fair Dickins10-1735726.670.379361103.0
329Citadel9-1832326.380.398345108.2
330Nwestern St8-1919926.340.428308116.3
331Canisius8-1920226.320.428307116.3
332Stonehill9-1832626.250.397349107.9
333SELA8-1920826.210.426313115.8
334Alabama St9-1734526.160.388357105.4
335Bryant8-1827225.850.410333111.4
336North Alabama8-1731325.850.400343108.7
337Ball St8-1828125.690.408337110.9
338Pepperdine7-2010325.650.455250123.6
339Lafayette8-1924425.490.416329113.1
340Northeastern6-188825.400.460237125.0
341Niagara7-1916024.890.432304117.4
342MD Eastern8-1930424.290.398347108.2
343Evansville6-2011722.790.440283119.6
344Loyola Chicago6-2010422.640.448266121.7
345IU Indy7-2125221.760.402342109.2
346North Florida6-2113421.700.433303117.7
347Alcorn St6-1923021.430.405340110.1
348SC St6-1828821.430.392351106.5
349Oral Roberts6-2115021.190.422324114.7
350Maine6-2119120.640.413331112.2
351St Francis6-2024820.470.398346108.2
352Chicago St6-2122520.060.402341109.2
353UTSA5-2013119.490.427312116.0
354Coppin St6-2126819.450.391352106.3
355VMI6-2127019.440.390353106.0
356Delaware St6-1935118.500.35236395.7
357S Indiana5-2124917.520.388355105.4
358W Illinois5-2224316.990.388356105.4
359Air Force3-231115.290.485188131.8
360Binghamton5-2234914.850.34136592.7
361Kansas City4-2224014.680.380360103.3
362ULM4-2324214.160.379362103.0
363Rider3-2210613.750.421326114.4
364Gardner Webb3-2512112.120.408335110.9
365MS Valley1-252875.700.34236492.9

2 Replies to “Men’s Basketball Top 365 and an Apology”

  1. Robert — I am not sure I understand how to use the table to identify a winner. Can you give an example or two using your directions?

    Also — what does RPI and SOS represent?

    Thanks I enjoy the emails.

    Scott

    1. Hi Scott and thanks for the great questions. RPI is a metric that adds a team’s winning percentage to twice its opponent’s winning percentage to their opponents’ opponent’s winning percentage, after which you divide by 4. It provides a combination of “goodness” and “difficulty”. SOS is Strength of Schedule which can be calculated a few different ways. We use a simple average of a team’s opponent’s GCR metric of Performance Score. We don’t generally publish that number, but it is a value based on wins collected and games played.

      For the post I’m about to write, I just updated all women’s games through yesterday, so I’ll use that as an example. I know you are in Big Ten country, so I’ll use a game from that conference. The only game today is Penn St (9-17/233) at Rutgers (9-17/235) – not the best game, but ok. One way to calculate the winner of that game is the Score, which is normalized so that the best team (UCLA) has a Score of 100. Rutgers is 38.42 and Penn St is 38.89. They are playing at Rutgers so add 4.5 which has Rutgers winning by a margin of (38.42+4.5-38.89) or 4.03. Likewise, we could use the RPIF (or RPI Factor which puts the RPI variation among teams at the same margin of spread as the Score – in other words, because the variation within the RPI (which is a fraction) is very small, we normalize the RPI Factor so that we can compare teams without the reader having to do a bunch of math. For our game today, Rutgers is sitting at 140.8 and Penn St is at 143.7. Again, Rutgers is at home so add 4.5. 140.8+4.5-143.7 or 1.6. We would say Rutgers should win with a theoretical point spread of somewhere between 1.6 and 4.03.

      Hope that helps. Let me know your thoughts.

      r

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