Greetings from a sort of tired (it’s been a busy weekend) blogger who is getting re-energized thanks to this week’s math-ridden analysis. From here on out, all rankings for teams are the GCR ranking, not the AP or other human poll. The ranking was posted earlier today so check that out as well. There were some really exciting games – seems like OT is becoming a fashionable thing now – and some upsets. Let’s look at those first. For Power 5 teams, none was worse than The Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech losing to FCS The Citadel who was 0-2 coming into this game. Granted the Bulldogs have beaten FBS teams before (most recently South Carolina in Spurrier’s last half year). Tech had to make a FG as time expired to get to OT and then missed one in the extra time. The ACC is not starting strong (2 top 25 teams – Clemson – 4 and Virginia – 20) but only 2 more in the top 50 (Wake Forest – 32 and Duke – 35). Even still, the new look Yellow Jackets (147 and last in the ACC) may be in for a rough season. Speaking of the ACC, what is with a non-conference conference game? Wake Forest and North Carolina decided they didn’t like not playing each other, so they scheduled a non-conference game. I don’t even know how to track this game from an analytical viewpoint. Since there was a win and a loss, which is why I don’t include conference games in the Power 5 vs Power 5 records, I’m going to treat is as an unofficial conference game). The ACC is a whopping 2-7 against non-ACC Power 5 opponents). It is entirely too early to rename the ACC the All Clemson Conference despite what you may be hearing on sports shows, but someone is going to have to step up more than they have so far.
Speaking of conferences that have very quickly failed to shine top to bottom, the Pac-12 lost 3 games to Group of 5 teams: Colorado (77) lost to Air Force (28), of course in OT and to the giant killer Mountain West, Stanford (140) got their second loss of the young season to Central Florida (9) of the American (a side note, UCF scheduled this game to strengthen their argument to be included in the playoff but a 1-2 Stanford is not going to help a ton especially since their other loss was to), Southern Cal (91) lost to BYU (83) who beat Tennessee last week. Just for fun BYU has now won as many games against Power 5 teams as the ACC – they are 2-1 with the loss coming to Utah. The Pac 12 has 5 teams between 13-27 and 2 more in the top 50. UCLA is one of only 2 Power 5 teams without a win (Vandy being the other). More craziness will ensure starting next week when the 9-game conference schedule begins for real.
The Big 10 almost had 3 lower level upsets, and would have if Minnesota (52) hadn’t scored a TD with 0:13 to go to beat Georgia Southern (89) by 3. The losers were a seemingly really good Maryland (46) team (in the Beta last week, I had them at #3) after destroying Syracuse (121) the week before. Temple (36) had a different idea and held on via a goal-line stand. Illinois (88) dropped one to Eastern Michigan (61) for the MAC’s only Power 5 win this season in 15 tries. The Big 10 has some stellar teams. Ohio State (1) and Wisconsin (2) lead the way with 2 other Top 25 teams (Iowa – 22, and Penn State – 23). 4 other teams are in the top 50 so this may be the year the B1G wins a playoff game. It could happen. Right now they are on top – we will see if they can maintain.
There was an upset in the FCS ranks as well. Butler (228) of the Pioneer league (one of two, with the Ivy League, that does not have scholarships) lost to the Taylor Trojans out of Upland Illinois. Who else is going to google that?
I’ve talked about some conferences so let’s get a little bit of a look at all of them:
Over the course of the year, I’ll talk about the conference level comparisons (and rank), the division level (and rank), and lots of fun stats on top tier teams like Offensive and Defensive Effectiveness Rates. I’ll even start to predict a few key games. The typical schedule will be a rant-type blog on Tuesday followed by the games to watch analysis on Thursday. I try to get the Ranking posted before the human polls come out, but sometimes I can’t because of other commitments. Then Sunday night is a deeper analysis.
To close this week the Power 5 has 24 undefeated teams and 2 winless, the Group of 5 are 11-6, and the FCS 8-28.
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thanks,
Robert
