G’s Evaluation or A New Number One, Again!

Welcome, college football fans, to episode 697 which is all about ranking all 266 Division I football teams after this week’s action. As we were preparing for today, we saw a reference to six of the AP Top 18 teams lost yesterday. BYU was idle so those teams, the best in the country, were just 11-6. Mississippi (then number 4, lost to unranked Florida), Southern Cal (12, 20th Oregon), Penn St (13, unranked Wisconsin), Tennessee (14, 1st Texas), Louisville (16, unranked Wake Forest), and Michigan (18, 17th Iowa) dropped games. It made us want to compare the GCR Top 18. BYU was still idle, so the GCR was 13-4 for those teams. Penn St (then number 6, lost to 58th Wisconsin), Southern Cal (8, 61st Oregon), Tennessee (9, 17th Texas), and Missouri (18th, 1st Mississippi St). Was this an upset week or were these just…adjustments?

…..

We made a couple of adjustments ourselves to the three weekly tables in the football Evaluation. The first one is an added bit of information in the Conference Ranked by Winning Percentage table below. We still sort by overall winning percentage which is shown in the upper parenthetical values. The upper row for each conference shows the conference name followed by total wins-total losses/winning percentage. If a conference has a winning percentage above 500, conference games (which are 500) lower the overall towards the middle. Likewise, an overall winning percentage below 500 is raised by conference play. We decided we wanted to show that impact, so we updated the lower row for each conference to include the number of conference games played and, parenthetically, the non-conference winning percentage. It is important to remember that a higher winning percentage does not necessarily mean a higher average rank (see Tuesday’s post on Conferences Ranked by Mean GCR Rank). Here is Week 4’s conference performance.

W% RankFBSFCS
1SEC (49-15/766)
13 CG (947)
MEAC (17-11/607)
0 CG (607)
2Independents (6-2/750)
0 CG (750)
Missouri Valley (26-18/591)
5 CG (618)
3B12 (45-16/738)
8 CG (822)
UAC (19-18/514)
2 CG (515)
4Big Ten (51-21/708)
10 CG (788)
SWAC (27-27/500)
8 CG (500)
5ACC (44-22/667)
13 CG (775)
Big Sky (29-34/460)
15 CG (424)
6American (29-25/537)
4 CG (543)
Southland (22-26/458)
10 CG (429)
7Sun Belt (27-28/491)
1 CG (491)
Pioneer League (21-25/457)
4 CG (447)
8Pac 12 (15-17/469)
0 CG (469)
SoCon (21-26/447)
9 CG (414)
9Mountain West (18-21/462)
4 CG (452)
Patriot League (21-26/447)
12 CG (391)
10MAC (24-30/444) 3 CG (438)CAA (26-37/413)
13 CG (351)
11Conference USA (17-24/415)
1 CG (410)
FCS Indies (3-7/300)
0 CG (300)
12—Big South/Ohio Valley (11-26/297)
1 CG (286)
13—Northeast (7-28/200)
2 CG (161)
14—Ivy League (9-7/0)
2 CG (583)

…..

This week, the GCR prediction algorithm was greatly improved, overall, with just a couple of areas lower than expectation. Overall, the GCR predicted the winner 82 times out of 113 chances for a 72.6% accuracy rate. That is slightly below the 75% target. Using our data from the first round of beta testing, the accuracy improved to 74.3% (84-29). However, we saw the opposite impact on a really good prediction week against the spread. Our current method was a red hot 74-39 (65.5%) accuracy exceeding the 58% target. The beta test was 65-28 (57.5%) which would be acceptable (and much improved compared to previous weeks), but significantly lower than current method. We will continue to test. In the table below, C4 represents Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame) teams, G6 represents Group of 6 (American, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, or UCONN) teams, and FCS represents the rest of Division I teams. In each cell, the upper numbers are correct prediction-incorrect prediction (accuracy rate) for simply predicting the winner of each game in that category. The lower numbers are the same format for predicting taking into account the Vegas spread at the time of publishing. We’ve adjusted the title row for more clarity of the game categories.

WeekC4 vs C4C4 vs G6C4 vs FCSG6 vs G6G6 vs FCSFCS vs FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (0)
0-2 (0)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643)
14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941)
11-6 (647)
8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709)
56-60 (483)
313-7 (650)
10-10 (500)
18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712)
53-53 (500)
413-10 (565)
17-6 (739)
7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762)
13-8 (619)
8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726)
74-39 (655)
Total35-22 (614)
33-24 (579)
41-4 (911)
26-19 (578)
20-8 (714)
18-10 (643)
39-18 (684)
31-26 (544)
33-9 (786)
18-23 (439)
94-46 (671)
71-62 (534)
262-107 (710)
197-164 (546)

…..

Without much more ado, it’s time for the main event: the Week 4 Top 266 ranking every team from our new number 1 Notre Dame (4-0/1) to our new number 266 Wagner (1-3/266). Last week’s number one, Mississippi St (4-0/5) dropped because we have to remember that all games are played “now” in the GCR and each week’s rankings are based on the season-to-date data. We did add a “Celsius” rating which is part of the beta test for predictions. We use this in basketball as the Score itself but haven’t made the switch yet in football. For now, we’ll show both until the testing shows we can use the value for predictions. The purpose of the new value is to help readers evaluate the data. Without adjustment, Notre Dame has a Score of 13.61 and Wagner -6.75. That means a lot to us, but we still have to make certain calculations based on that number to use it for predictions. We are certain it means little to the reader. Nebraska (4-0/10) has a score of 11.69. Is that close to Notre Dame or not? It’s a little hard to tell in raw form. The Celsius rating adjusts every team so that the lowest-ranked has a new score of 0.00 (freezing) and the top-ranked team has a new score of 100.00 (boiling). This “stretches” the GCR Score to show more differentiation and be more readily readable. Nebraska has a Celsius of 90.58 which gives a better indicator of how far away they are from Notre Dame. The beta test that we are running for predictions is based on this value: for example, in a neutral site game the Irish should beat Nebraska by 9.42 points. We are working to understand any home field adjustment that needs to be made. This week’s test was without any home field adjustment at all. We will run some regressions for better results (fingers crossed) next week. With that here is this week’s Top 266.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1Notre DameIND4042.38.313.614100.00
2AlabamaSEC4048.020.313.55299.71
3Miami FLACC4051.89.013.25898.23
4UCLAB104044.818.813.21698.07
5Mississippi StSEC4043.021.013.15597.75
6FloridaSEC4053.522.812.44394.25
7GeorgiaSEC4054.813.312.371193.94
8TexasSEC4033.313.311.95191.87
9UtahB124043.310.311.861691.42
10NebraskaB104042.512.011.692190.58
11Virginia TechACC4043.316.011.181888.09
12BYUB123044.015.711.122487.79
13DukeACC4036.311.011.05987.42
14Ohio StB103145.012.311.032387.35
15PittsburghACC4039.38.511.011287.24
16IndianaB104043.59.810.821786.28
17CincinnatiB124040.520.510.75785.96
18LSUSEC3138.815.510.731485.85
19Texas TechB124036.318.510.722285.81
20IowaB104032.88.010.691585.65
21OregonB103147.523.310.452684.48
22UMASSMAC4036.312.810.107982.79
23North Dakota StMWC4035.012.310.016482.35
24James MadisonSUN4044.812.39.965782.09
25Oklahoma StB123137.319.89.892981.73
26Penn StB103136.811.59.763381.11
27MissouriSEC3135.820.89.753981.05
28TennesseeSEC3140.015.59.674080.66
29MississippiSEC3135.530.89.641380.52
30HoustonB123144.520.59.634180.45
31UCFB123136.315.39.623480.40
32NorthwesternB102132.718.09.584380.20
33AuburnSEC3130.020.89.551080.08
34Kansas StB123140.515.39.413679.39
35VirginiaACC3140.513.09.403179.34
36Southern CalB104139.826.49.382579.21
37WisconsinB103131.820.09.273278.67
38ClemsonACC3121.022.09.131978.00
39MichiganB103125.314.89.072777.69
40BaylorB123129.813.08.723776.01
41South FloridaAAC4030.014.08.726375.99
42ArizonaB123132.019.08.544475.08
43MinnesotaB103135.019.08.403574.41
44VanderbiltSEC3128.321.88.373074.25
45KentuckySEC3134.525.08.342874.10
46Fresno StPAC3128.319.08.325874.01
47Wake ForestACC3131.528.08.242073.63
48Boise StPAC3133.821.38.246773.61
49New MexicoMWC3139.011.57.958172.18
50SMUACC3137.024.87.914772.02
51West VirginiaB123136.324.87.913872.00
52LouisianaSUN3130.819.37.837871.60
53North CarolinaACC2123.313.77.824571.58
54LibertyUSA3130.518.87.818571.52
55OklahomaSEC2222.016.07.795071.40
56WashingtonB103128.016.87.694870.94
57FAUAAC3130.030.87.565970.31
58Georgia StSUN3138.821.37.428069.61
59Iowa StB122230.816.07.386569.43
60South CarolinaSEC2238.524.87.355169.27
61Michigan StB102222.021.37.284668.89
62UTSAAAC3135.329.37.155468.29
63Florida StACC2232.025.37.017167.60
64LouisvilleACC2241.328.87.015267.57
65Texas A&MSEC2231.321.56.924267.13
66MemphisAAC3133.526.06.858266.78
67Boston CollegeACC2219.823.06.765666.36
68TulsaAAC3123.815.36.766266.34
69IllinoisB102234.026.56.756166.32
70Arizona StB122138.024.06.606065.59
71TCUB122229.312.56.557065.35
72ArkansasSEC2223.027.06.465564.87
73NC StACC2238.325.06.466864.86
74ToledoMAC3143.326.06.407564.59
75App StSUN3134.822.36.118363.17
76Montana StSKY5037.615.06.0516662.87
77MarylandB102232.325.85.966662.42
78Idaho StSKY4038.517.05.9415262.31
79StanfordACC2221.033.55.924962.25
80ArmyAAC2134.716.05.889562.01
81SyracuseACC1232.317.05.618660.69
82MarshallSUN3123.532.55.557760.39
83UNLVMWC2221.521.85.5210560.26
84Jax StUSA3227.421.85.479860.04
85Air ForceMWC2134.023.75.4710660.01
86ColoradoB122221.524.55.437259.80
87Oregon StPAC2232.323.05.418459.70
88North TexasAAC2239.530.35.239758.83
89FIUUSA2218.014.55.2311058.82
90Miami OHMAC2228.530.55.137658.34
91TulaneAAC2218.823.35.056957.95
92CaliforniaACC2226.023.54.905357.20
93Mid TennUSA2226.021.34.8412456.94
94Texas StPAC2236.333.84.827356.84
95LehighPAT5033.614.24.8121056.78
96OhioMAC2230.331.04.719656.29
97TarletonUAC4035.321.84.6115855.78
98East CarolinaAAC2224.025.34.599055.70
99DelawareUSA2223.324.54.439154.93
100San Jose StMWC2223.327.34.389954.64
101C MichiganMAC2211.827.54.379354.60
102Steph F AustinSLAN5040.413.04.3619654.57
103South AlabamaSUN2231.330.84.368754.56
104W MichiganMAC2224.020.04.348954.45
105PurdueB101332.039.54.257454.05
106HarvardIVY2022.58.54.1822053.69
107UCONNIND2234.822.34.1810753.67
108TroySUN2221.321.54.1410353.51
109UABAAC2221.825.84.0810253.19
110TN TechSoCon4037.320.04.0821453.18
111WyomingMWC2217.820.54.0112352.84
112Colorado StPAC2240.334.33.988852.71
113RutgersB101333.828.53.819451.88
114Arkansas StSUN2225.023.53.6711451.20
115Utah StPAC1313.022.03.6312050.96
116NavyAAC1230.725.73.5413250.54
117KansasB121229.722.73.4710050.20
118Illinois StMFC4143.015.03.4416550.03
119Kent StMAC2216.336.03.389249.77
120BuffaloMAC2221.333.33.2911549.32
121NevadaMWC1327.324.33.1213748.49
122Georgia TechACC1327.026.03.0710848.24
123LA TechSUN1237.729.03.0310948.05
124Sam HoustonUSA1327.824.02.8212147.02
125E MichiganMAC2319.027.22.7910146.83
126ColgatePAT4123.413.02.7117046.48
127SC StMEAC5047.010.22.5318145.57
128San Diego StPAC1323.028.82.4811645.35
129ElonCAA4131.415.22.4223645.02
130RiceAAC1319.030.32.2811944.36
131Austin PeayUAC4136.016.02.2714644.32
132W KentuckyUSA1321.541.02.2511844.21
133Ga SouthernSUN1323.323.82.1911743.91
134Alabama A&MSWAC4135.416.22.1817643.83
135CoastalSUN1325.023.52.1712643.79
136ChattanoogaSoCon3223.614.22.1424443.67
137South Dakota StMFC4142.816.42.0914443.41
138Washington StPAC1322.324.82.0411243.15
139ColumbiaIVY2030.025.52.0221743.09
140Old DominionSUN1322.330.02.0111143.01
141MontanaSKY4137.423.82.0016742.97
142Missouri StUSA1324.032.01.9112242.53
143Kennesaw StUSA1321.822.51.8613142.29
144Jackson StSWAC4042.015.51.8617742.28
145TempleAAC1328.027.81.8412842.17
146North DakotaMFC4140.027.81.8114342.04
147Ball StMAC1318.037.51.6512741.25
148PrincetonIVY1118.010.51.6524041.24
149HawaiiMWC1318.026.01.5912940.97
150West FloridaUAC3128.025.01.3421139.75
151South DakotaMFC3238.030.21.3217239.64
152MaristPFL2224.815.01.3126239.57
153ButlerPFL4136.624.41.2925339.49
154Southern MissSUN1324.529.51.2712539.38
155DaytonPFL3030.013.71.2321639.21
156CampbellCAA4133.228.41.1714038.92
157YaleIVY1131.533.01.1124838.60
158New Mexico StUSA1326.329.81.0513638.29
159St ThomasPFL4135.025.61.0417438.26
160BryantCAA3119.820.51.0316338.18
161AkronMAC1319.531.81.0110438.08
162LamarSLAN3125.021.80.9414837.76
163BrownIVY1113.512.00.9325037.73
164CornellIVY1122.522.50.8524637.33
165Alabama StSWAC3130.516.50.7920537.04
166N IllinoisMWC0413.836.30.7213436.69
167SELASLAN3232.430.80.7019336.61
168Stony BrookCAA3234.830.80.5721335.94
169PennIVY1113.513.50.5423835.81
170AlbanyCAA2320.019.60.5323935.74
171Youngstown StMFC3238.624.60.4815035.53
172Sacramento StMAC1417.628.60.4513335.36
173UTEPMWC1318.836.50.3811335.02
174Gardner WebbBSOV1426.426.40.3018234.62
175S IllinoisMFC3228.625.20.0817833.53
176North AlabamaUAC3224.422.20.0617533.43
177Bowling GreenMAC048.336.30.0413033.35
178Cal PolySKY3229.629.2-0.0619232.86
179DrakePFL1327.542.8-0.0925732.71
180ULMSUN0421.342.8-0.1013532.67
181Rhode IslandCAA2324.226.6-0.1123732.60
182SamfordSoCon1323.024.0-0.1424732.44
183MercerSoCon3228.619.8-0.1720932.31
184CharlotteAAC0419.536.0-0.1913932.19
185N ArizonaSKY3225.628.2-0.5116130.65
186N ColoradoSKY2325.023.8-0.5123430.61
187DartmouthIVY0224.027.5-0.6326330.03
188RichmondPAT4120.027.6-0.6714229.85
189McNeeseSLAN2328.023.2-0.6925529.73
190MonmouthCAA3223.631.8-0.7320329.57
191UC DavisSKY3231.433.2-0.7517129.44
192Delaware StMEAC3225.429.8-0.9218528.60
193Robert MorrisNEC2223.823.0-0.9725128.36
194WoffordSoCon2323.829.2-0.9822528.35
195Morgan StMEAC3130.025.8-1.0315528.08
196ValparaisoPFL1330.328.0-1.0826027.85
197Indiana StMFC2331.232.0-1.2120127.19
198W CarolinaSoCon2332.636.6-1.3015426.77
199Chrls SoBSOV2227.017.8-1.3423026.57
200E Tenn StSoCon3236.231.2-1.3715126.41
201Morehead StPFL1331.047.0-1.4225426.17
202Rio GrandeSLAN2323.027.8-1.4420626.09
203CitadelSoCon1321.334.0-1.4525226.03
204Weber StSKY2336.638.4-1.4522726.00
205N IowaMFC2227.031.0-1.5515325.54
206Alcorn StSWAC3235.037.0-1.6021825.26
207Sacred HeartCAA1318.826.3-1.6122625.25
208SEMOBSOV2319.424.4-1.6420425.09
209DavidsonPFL2324.433.6-1.6826424.90
210Norfolk StMEAC3230.826.2-1.8723523.96
211S UtahSKY1428.436.8-1.8822423.91
212East TexasSLAN1416.830.0-1.8924323.84
213NC CentralMEAC2323.231.2-1.9222123.71
214New HavenNEC1411.826.6-1.9325823.66
215Chicago StFCSIND1430.636.6-1.9825923.43
216StetsonPFL1319.342.0-1.9926623.36
217FurmanSoCon2315.021.0-2.0019923.30
218W IllinoisBSOV2332.623.2-2.0119523.27
219Incarnate WordSLAN2236.034.5-2.0517923.09
220PresbyterianPFL1317.849.8-2.2126522.31
221MerrimackFCSIND2314.829.0-2.2122822.31
222Prairie ViewSWAC2323.230.4-2.2419422.13
223GeorgetownPAT0317.329.7-2.3326121.67
224Abilene ChrUAC1417.830.6-2.3618721.52
225San DiegoPFL1322.348.3-2.4424921.16
226TX SouthernSWAC1326.544.0-2.5024120.86
227VillanovaPAT2320.630.8-2.5418420.67
228E WashingtonSKY1425.435.6-2.5520020.63
229C ArkansasUAC2325.025.4-2.6619020.06
230Ark Pine BluffSWAC2235.339.3-2.7015619.89
231E KentuckyUAC1316.032.0-2.7121919.85
232BethuneSWAC2233.031.3-2.7414519.68
233LafayettePAT1321.035.8-2.8824518.99
234NC A&TCAA1415.033.2-2.9323218.72
235BucknellPAT1410.226.8-2.9619118.62
236StonehillNEC1416.628.0-3.0219718.33
237MS ValleySWAC1412.435.6-3.0324218.24
238Houston ChrSLAN2332.430.4-3.1118317.86
239William & MaryPAT2322.241.0-3.1616217.62
240SouthernSWAC2324.837.6-3.1920817.46
241E IllinoisBSOV1418.041.2-3.2819817.04
242GramblingSWAC2229.529.3-3.2914917.00
243Holy CrossPAT1418.636.6-3.3323116.80
244MaineCAA1414.232.2-3.3718616.57
245TN StBSOV1314.836.3-3.4816816.03
246FordhamPAT1417.833.0-3.7618014.69
247IdahoSKY0426.042.0-3.8818914.08
248New HampshireCAA1415.836.0-3.9822913.57
249Florida A&MSWAC1417.436.8-4.0218813.38
250LindenwoodBSOV1317.332.5-4.0221513.38
251DuquesneNEC1318.338.0-4.1415912.79
252UT MartinBSOV1421.235.0-4.1615712.69
253Nwestern StSLAN0519.652.2-4.4125611.48
254VMISoCon059.439.4-4.4823311.12
255C ConnecticutNEC0320.052.3-4.4922311.06
256NichollsSLAN2319.243.4-4.6916010.10
257West GeorgiaUAC1418.633.0-4.782229.65
258HamptonCAA1417.835.8-5.211697.56
259TowsonCAA0519.236.4-5.262027.32
260Utah TechSKY0511.444.8-5.652075.38
261Portland StSKY1422.251.2-5.661475.32
262Long IslandNEC0511.833.6-5.672125.31
263Murray StMFC1412.237.8-5.711735.08
264MercyhurstNEC1417.447.2-6.351641.93
265HowardMEAC1314.841.3-6.391411.74
266WagnerNEC1312.042.8-6.751380.00

…..

That’s it for today. Tune in Tuesday for the first Conference Comparison (will be repeated roughly every 4 weeks). We are continuing to prepare for the college basketball season (both men and women). Thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others. Until next time, have a fantastic week, JoJo and G.

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