G’s Evaluation or A New Number One Team, Again!

Welcome back, sports fans, to episode 702 or the analysis of week 5. Yesterday, we had a chili cookoff in the secret lair that is GCR headquarters (ok, G’s neighborhood), and while we did not finish in the Top 3, we had some great conversations about college football. One realization that came to us in those talks is that, in a world of 30-second teasers, often with little facts or “meat”, the GCR appeals to a higher, possibly even old-fashioned, sense of communication. Readership is increasing, and that’s great. We would love to have thousands of views a day, but only because we hope thousands of people love to think about college football (and men’s and women’s basketball) as much as we do. We don’t show pictures. We don’t have fancy video (or any video). Our readers actually have to read. We provide discussible and debatable data based in measured calculations and we often do not agree with the pollsters. And we do that unapologetically. We hope that our readers use the information we publish to have water cooler (or the modern equivalent, latte run) conversations. But the point is, we need to pause and thank our READERS, who take the time to peruse a few 1000+ word posts a week. It is a measure of the intelligence of those who view our posts – it’s incredibly humbling to us. To all of you, we are thankful.

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As our new 2026 tradition continues, we have three bits of analysis for our readers. First will be the prediction accuracy analysis. Then we’ll show the conferences by winning percentage (not the full ranking like last week’s Explanation, but a quicker weekly version of the same basic information). We’ll close with this week’s Top 266.

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In previous years, we split the prediction analysis into FBS (picking the winner and against the Vegas spread) and the FCS (picking the winner). The FCS games (or most of them) do have odds, but they are not typically published as early as the FBS. Because in those previous seasons, we published all predictions on the first day of the week with games, the FCS odds were not always available. This year, because we publish the predictions every day there are games and only for those games, we expanded the analysis. Now we break out the success rate by category: for example, Core 4 vs Core 4 and Group of 6 vs FCS are categories. Our target is a 75% (750) rate for picking the winner, with a minimal acceptance week over week of 70% (700). For against the spread, our target is 58% (580) with a weekly acceptance of 55% (550). The difference in the overall and weekly is that a) there will be above average weeks that bring the overall numbers up, and b) we want to avoid major under average weeks which are difficult to recover from. In other words, if we miss in a given week, we don’t want to miss by much. Here is this week’s (and season-to-date) breakdown.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (0)
0-2 (0)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643)
14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941)
11-6 (647)
8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709)
56-60 (483)
313-7 (650)
10-10 (500)
18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712)
53-53 (500)
413-10 (565)
17-6 (739)
7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762)
13-8 (619)
8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726)
74-39 (655)
517-10 (630)
16-11 (593)
2-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
1-0 (1000)
0-1 (0)
19-7 (731)
18-8 (692)
2-0 (1000)
2-0 (1000)
33-20 (623)
28-20 (583)
74-37 (667)
66-41 (617)
Total52-32 (619)
49-35 (583)
43-4 (915)
28-20 (583)
21-8 (724)
18-11 (621)
58-25 (699)
49-34 (590)
35-9 (795)
20-23 (465)
127-66 (658)
99-82 (547)
336-144 (700)
263-205 (562)

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For the week we were below acceptable picking the winner but above expectations for against the spread. For the season, we dipped a little in PTW and continued to rise in ATS. Our test runs for using a new prediction model were closer this week (73 correct PTW and 64 correct ATS) but still not strong enough to switch. We will continue working on it.

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Next up is the weekly conference comparison which is split FBS and FCS. We base this purely on overall winning percentage inclusive of conference play. Last Tuesday we posted the full analysis, which was based on mean GCR rank of each conference. While directionally similar, the two analyses may or may not generate the same order. With mostly conference play, here is the new comparison. Each row is read “Conference (collective wins-collective losses/overall winning percentage) number of conference games (non-conference winning percentage).

W% RankFBSFCS
1SEC (56-21/727) 19 CG (949)Ivy League (14-10/583) 4 CG (625)
2B12 (52-22/703) 14 CG (826)Missouri Valley (30-22/577) 9 CG (618)
3Independents (7-3/700) 0 CG (700)MEAC (19-15/559) 0 CG (559)
4Big Ten (59-29/670) 18 CG (788)UAC (23-20/535) 4 CG (543)
5ACC (51-30/630) 19 CG (744)SWAC (32-33/492) 13 CG (487)
6American (35-31/530) 8 CG (540)Big Sky (35-40/467) 21 CG (424)
7Sun Belt (33-33/500) 6 CG (500)Pioneer League (26-30/464) 9 CG (447)
8Mountain West (23-24/489) 7 CG (485)Southland (26-31/456) 14 CG (414)
9Pac 12 (19-21/475) 4 CG (469)SoCon (26-31/456) 13 CG (419)
10MAC (30-36/455) 9 CG (438)CAA (33-42/440) 17 CG (390)
11Conference USA (19-27/413) 3 CG (400)Patriot League (24-32/429) 15 CG (346)
12—Big South/Ohio Valley (13-28/317) 3 CG (286)
13—FCS Indies (3-9/250) 0 CG (250)
14—Northeast (10-31/244) 4 CG (182)

…..

And lastly, the signature moment. Back in the beginning of the GCR – in the send an email to 2-3 people days – we only focused on the FBS. We really only wanted to focus on the Power 5 at the time (ACC, Big 12, Big 12, Pac 10, SEC, and Notre Dame) but the number of games against the Group of 5 dictated we had to include them. The GCR was, and still is an Excel-driven beast, but it was much more manual in those days. We thought about only publishing the Top 25 but decided to have the Top 126. There are now 138 FBS teams, and we’ve added the FCS to include all Division I teams (and make the tracking of FBS/FCS less manual). Each year, the number swells just a little reaching 266 for 2026. in the table below, we have each team with their record, scoring average (overall 27.8 points per game for the 704 played thus far), their GCR Score (a combination of Performance metrics and Strength of Schedule metrics), RPI (a different way to look at the data that is an indicator of the future – an RPI worse than the Rank would indicate the team will drop in the future), and our newest metric, Celsius. Celsius, takes the Score data and “forces” that data to equal 100 for the top team and 0 for the bottom team. All other teams are proportionally rated. One could read that as Miami FL is 99.71% as good as Alabama right now. It also gets rid of the pesky negative value for the lower ranked teams. Here are all of the teams from our new #1 Alabama (our 6th #1 team in 6 Top 266’s) to repeat #266 Wagner.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1AlabamaSEC5049.620.815.911100.00
2Miami FLACC5049.69.814.95599.71
3Notre DameND5041.211.814.33398.23
4UCLAB104044.818.813.51498.07
5TexasSEC4033.313.313.29297.75
6GeorgiaSEC5051.413.412.92894.25
7Ohio StB104142.212.612.681393.94
8NebraskaB105043.614.212.341191.87
9Texas TechB125034.816.212.34991.42
10UtahB124043.310.312.331690.58
11IndianaB105044.210.812.211588.09
12PittsburghACC5038.413.412.19787.79
13BYUB124037.314.312.021887.42
14Mississippi StSEC4139.028.011.88687.35
15NorthwesternB103133.016.811.582687.24
16OregonB103147.523.311.542486.28
17MissouriSEC4137.620.011.382385.96
18HoustonB124141.019.811.282785.85
19FloridaSEC4146.227.211.261485.81
20DukeACC4036.311.011.041285.65
21LSUSEC4143.615.210.922284.48
22WisconsinB104131.616.610.812182.79
23ArizonaB124132.416.610.703482.35
24James MadisonSUN5044.813.210.665182.09
25North Dakota StMWC5033.69.810.516081.73
26Virginia TechACC4141.219.810.493681.11
27BaylorB124134.814.210.403181.05
28TennesseeSEC4136.815.210.372980.66
29Southern CalB105137.325.510.311780.52
30Wake ForestACC4136.623.010.171080.45
31MississippiSEC3135.530.810.071980.40
32Oklahoma StB123137.319.89.883880.20
33UCFB123232.417.69.854280.08
34KentuckySEC4134.626.89.822079.39
35Fresno StPAC4127.816.49.745479.34
36CincinnatiB124133.823.29.713379.21
37Florida StACC3233.221.69.654578.67
38Kansas StB123140.515.39.404078.00
39AuburnSEC3226.821.49.303077.69
40MinnesotaB104132.018.09.212876.01
41IowaB104129.012.69.182575.99
42SMUACC4134.623.09.073775.08
43Texas A&MSEC3231.818.69.043574.41
44Boise StPAC4134.420.68.985974.25
45LibertyUSA4130.417.88.948374.10
46New MexicoMWC4143.410.68.937774.01
47OklahomaSEC2222.016.08.874873.63
48Penn StB103232.016.08.844173.61
49MichiganB103223.015.88.763972.18
50VanderbiltSEC3225.425.08.694372.02
51MemphisAAC4138.622.48.667872.00
52WashingtonB103226.618.48.605371.60
53LouisianaSUN4129.219.48.557171.58
54ClemsonACC3219.425.88.383271.52
55VirginiaACC3233.818.08.244771.40
56Iowa StB123233.621.28.224670.94
57Michigan StB102318.223.28.194470.31
58Georgia StSUN4139.419.08.187969.61
59FAUAAC4137.226.67.777669.43
60Oregon StPAC3237.023.67.736969.27
61UMASSMAC4131.817.87.589868.89
62South CarolinaSEC2337.626.87.535768.29
63ToledoMAC4142.425.67.526567.60
64UTSAAAC4131.426.27.335867.57
65SyracuseACC2234.823.07.327467.13
66West VirginiaB123237.428.87.255666.78
67NC StACC3236.825.67.225066.36
68South FloridaAAC4126.614.67.168466.34
69LouisvilleACC2338.629.27.146166.32
70North CarolinaACC2224.019.57.124965.59
71UNLVMWC3225.023.66.688765.35
72Boston CollegeACC2319.023.46.606864.87
73PurdueB102330.435.06.555264.86
74North TexasAAC3240.633.06.538164.59
75App StSUN3134.822.36.468863.17
76MarylandB102330.430.26.386662.87
77Air ForceMWC3129.020.06.359762.42
78C MichiganMAC3217.625.46.298262.31
79OhioMAC3226.826.86.148662.25
80IllinoisB102330.626.06.076762.01
81ArkansasSEC2319.828.46.026360.69
82KansasB122236.017.06.027360.39
83San Jose StMWC3222.625.05.988960.26
84Jax StUSA3227.421.85.9810060.04
85StanfordACC2317.438.25.965560.01
86South AlabamaSUN3235.431.65.918559.80
87TCUB122325.413.45.877559.70
88TulsaAAC3227.821.25.808058.83
89ColoradoB122318.625.45.776458.82
90Arizona StB122233.331.85.576258.34
91FIUUSA2218.014.55.5011457.95
92W MichiganMAC3223.219.45.339257.20
93East CarolinaAAC2224.025.35.229556.94
94TulaneAAC2218.823.35.187256.84
95E MichiganMAC3322.225.05.179456.78
96LA TechSUN2236.029.05.079156.29
97Montana StSKY5137.018.35.0416955.78
98UABAAC3224.023.45.0310855.70
99ArmyAAC2233.319.84.9910954.93
100MarshallSUN3222.235.04.969354.64
101LehighPAT6033.711.84.8620254.60
102TarletonUAC5039.421.64.7215554.57
103TroySUN2221.321.54.6310554.56
104CaliforniaACC2327.026.64.607054.45
105Miami OHMAC2326.829.24.5510154.05
106Texas StPAC2334.833.24.379053.69
107Idaho StSKY4137.021.24.3417053.67
108Steph F AustinSLAN6038.315.23.8817853.51
109San Diego StPAC2324.628.83.869653.19
110WyomingMWC2314.222.03.8112353.18
111Ga SouthernSUN2324.823.83.7810652.84
112TempleAAC2325.824.83.7811052.71
113Arkansas StSUN2324.023.43.7711851.88
114RutgersB101430.032.23.739951.20
115UCONNIND2336.026.23.5812150.96
116Georgia TechACC1327.026.03.5310350.54
117NavyAAC1325.322.83.5313550.20
118Sam HoustonUSA1327.824.03.4512450.03
119Mid TennUSA2320.828.03.3712649.77
120HarvardIVY3021.711.33.3719049.32
121PrincetonIVY2123.79.33.3223248.49
122Kent StMAC2315.031.43.2910448.24
123NevadaMWC1327.324.33.2513848.05
124DelawareUSA2321.425.63.2511147.02
125New Mexico StUSA2327.826.43.2212246.83
126Utah StPAC1414.025.03.0812046.48
127RiceAAC1418.027.42.9911345.57
128Colorado StPAC2337.438.62.9010245.35
129BuffaloMAC2320.430.62.8312545.02
130TN TechSoCon4133.824.82.7921444.36
131Missouri StUSA1324.032.02.7511544.32
132South Dakota StMFC5140.816.02.7314444.21
133Austin PeayUAC5137.016.22.6615243.91
134W KentuckyUSA1419.839.62.5912743.83
135Kennesaw StUSA1321.822.52.5413143.79
136CornellIVY2126.719.72.5023643.67
137Bowling GreenMAC1411.433.02.4611643.41
138MontanaSKY5137.222.22.4516043.15
139North DakotaMFC5142.527.82.4313943.09
140ColgatePAT4222.314.22.2517743.01
141Illinois StMFC4238.217.72.1617542.97
142YaleIVY2134.730.02.0124042.53
143MaristPFL3225.414.81.9925942.29
144South DakotaMFC4239.027.51.9816442.28
145SC StMEAC5144.314.21.9421842.17
146Jackson StSWAC5039.818.01.8919942.04
147ElonCAA4230.017.71.8624541.25
148Old DominionSUN1419.832.41.8411741.24
149LamarSLAN4128.420.21.7814840.97
150Alabama A&MSWAC4234.218.71.7421539.75
151CoastalSUN1424.825.01.6413339.64
152AkronMAC1419.033.61.6110739.57
153Ball StMAC1419.237.81.6012839.49
154ChattanoogaSoCon3320.214.21.5524739.38
155CampbellCAA5134.028.81.5414339.21
156N IllinoisMWC0413.836.31.4913438.92
157HawaiiMWC1417.624.81.4813038.60
158Washington StPAC1419.025.01.4011238.29
159ButlerPFL4136.624.41.2725538.26
160Youngstown StMFC4236.823.21.2714538.18
161Southern MissSUN1324.529.51.2612938.08
162AlbanyCAA3321.316.81.2122237.76
163MercerSoCon4232.817.01.1819637.73
164BryantCAA4122.022.41.0716537.33
165Sacramento StMAC1417.628.61.0313237.04
166SELASLAN3232.430.80.7717436.69
167DaytonPFL3128.017.80.6424836.61
168Gardner WebbBSOV2424.023.70.6118135.94
169Stony BrookCAA3234.830.80.5720735.81
170West FloridaUAC3223.827.00.5422635.74
171ValparaisoPFL2331.623.00.5326135.53
172BrownIVY1212.312.30.5125835.36
173Alabama StSWAC3226.416.40.4621235.02
174North AlabamaUAC4223.721.20.4516734.62
175DrakePFL2328.038.60.4525733.53
176St ThomasPFL4232.730.50.3820833.43
177UTEPMWC1416.441.40.3611933.35
178N ArizonaSKY4227.728.70.2415332.86
179Rhode IslandCAA3322.323.80.2123032.71
180PennIVY1212.313.70.1924932.67
181DartmouthIVY1220.721.70.1725432.60
182RichmondPAT5123.328.20.1514732.44
183ULMSUN0524.044.60.1413732.31
184UC DavisSKY4234.334.00.0115432.19
185WoffordSoCon3325.228.5-0.2722030.65
186W CarolinaSoCon3334.533.8-0.3115730.61
187MonmouthCAA4226.533.2-0.3519230.03
188Morgan StMEAC4131.627.6-0.4215629.85
189Cal PolySKY3330.331.3-0.4220929.73
190ColumbiaIVY2122.328.7-0.4824129.57
191S IllinoisMFC3326.525.7-0.4918829.44
192Robert MorrisNEC3225.624.6-0.5023128.60
193Abilene ChrUAC2420.726.7-0.5316328.36
194Sacred HeartCAA2319.824.2-0.5922528.35
195E Tenn StSoCon4232.526.5-0.6216128.08
196Weber StSKY3337.537.7-0.6221127.85
197Ark Pine BluffSWAC3236.433.4-0.6714627.19
198CitadelSoCon2323.833.4-0.7324626.77
199PresbyterianPFL2325.244.0-0.7425626.57
200S UtahSKY2431.336.2-0.8022126.41
201N ColoradoSKY2423.225.8-0.8223826.17
202San DiegoPFL2330.441.4-0.8625326.09
203CharlotteAAC0517.240.6-0.9813626.03
204W IllinoisBSOV3331.822.8-1.1617626.00
205Chrls SoBSOV2323.616.6-1.1922925.54
206Delaware StMEAC3321.729.5-1.2122425.26
207Rio GrandeSLAN2422.026.5-1.2221625.25
208East TexasSLAN2417.327.8-1.2923725.09
209Indiana StMFC2428.334.0-1.4219324.90
210Alcorn StSWAC3339.041.3-1.4223323.96
211SamfordSoCon1421.225.8-1.4224323.91
212N IowaMFC2227.031.0-1.5514923.84
213SEMOBSOV2319.424.4-1.5518423.71
214Norfolk StMEAC3330.827.3-1.6025223.66
215Incarnate WordSLAN2334.033.2-1.6420523.43
216Holy CrossPAT2422.332.8-1.6822723.36
217BethuneSWAC3229.627.0-1.7515023.30
218Prairie ViewSWAC2423.830.0-1.7620323.27
219FurmanSoCon2416.722.8-1.9220123.09
220DavidsonPFL2422.738.5-1.9626422.31
221NC CentralMEAC2424.532.3-1.9721922.31
222Houston ChrSLAN3329.725.7-1.9715822.13
223New HavenNEC1512.729.2-2.0226021.67
224C ConnecticutNEC1326.342.8-2.0819821.52
225Chicago StFCSIND1529.039.8-2.1526221.16
226MerrimackFCSIND2416.331.0-2.1824220.86
227GramblingSWAC3236.235.2-2.2816820.67
228VillanovaPAT2423.032.0-2.2919720.63
229StetsonPFL1418.239.2-2.3426620.06
230MS ValleySWAC2415.034.2-2.3523519.89
231E WashingtonSKY1527.537.8-2.3620619.85
232Morehead StPFL1425.445.0-2.3726519.68
233NC A&TCAA1517.532.8-2.3823918.99
234E KentuckyUAC1416.029.6-2.4323418.72
235C ArkansasUAC2325.029.4-2.5716218.62
236McNeeseSLAN2425.729.8-2.6119418.33
237BucknellPAT1410.226.8-2.7818218.24
238TN StBSOV1416.034.6-2.8217317.86
239LafayettePAT1423.036.6-2.8425017.62
240New HampshireCAA2418.233.8-2.8521317.46
241IdahoSKY1427.840.4-2.8616617.04
242StonehillNEC1416.628.0-2.9518317.00
243GeorgetownPAT0416.531.0-2.9626316.80
244E IllinoisBSOV1418.041.2-3.1418516.57
245MaineCAA1514.530.8-3.2421016.03
246FordhamPAT1514.833.2-3.5220014.69
247SouthernSWAC2422.338.2-3.5319114.08
248William & MaryPAT2420.841.0-3.5518913.57
249Florida A&MSWAC1417.436.8-3.8617113.38
250TX SouthernSWAC1423.248.4-3.9520413.38
251LindenwoodBSOV1317.332.5-3.9618612.79
252DuquesneNEC1318.338.0-4.0715112.69
253UT MartinBSOV1421.235.0-4.0815911.48
254Nwestern StSLAN0618.750.5-4.1125111.12
255HowardMEAC2317.235.6-4.1214111.06
256NichollsSLAN2416.338.8-4.2017910.10
257TowsonCAA0622.737.2-4.402289.65
258Long IslandNEC1514.332.0-4.401957.56
259HamptonCAA1517.034.3-4.711877.32
260West GeorgiaUAC1418.633.0-4.792235.38
261VMISoCon068.341.8-4.892445.32
262Murray StMFC1514.840.7-5.201805.31
263Utah TechSKY0615.045.0-5.202175.08
264MercyhurstNEC1518.543.8-5.291721.93
265Portland StSKY1422.251.2-5.621401.74
266WagnerNEC1412.443.2-5.881420.00

…..

That’s it for today. Tune in Tuesday as Conference USA kicks off mid-week games. They will do this for the rest of October before the MAC does the same in November. As we hit 4166 words in this post (including the tables), we once again thank you for the taking the time to read, commenting on our posts so that we can get better at providing valuable and entertaining content, as, especially, for sharing with other college football and basketball fans. Until Tuesday, JoJo and G.

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