Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 703 which is all about the first mid-week football game of the season. One quick correction from our last episode: while we were correct that Conference-USA will shift to mid-week games (for the most part) this month, tonight’s game is a fairly rare (there’ll be another one in two weeks) Sun Belt Tuesday surprise.
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There are 26 more days until November 1st (G’s parent’s anniversary) which is the kickoff for both Men’s and Women’s basketball. Both games involve Villanova at Notre Dame with the Men tipping off at 9:30 am (all times Eastern) and the Women following at 12:00 noon. The next day, we will have a full slate of games for both leagues. Unlike football, basketball schedules are in flux almost until the season begins, and that’s not even including in-season tournaments. Most conferences have their schedules complete (mostly January and February with sprinklings in December and March), but some do not. Some teams have their non-conference slates mostly complete; some have just a few games. We are working to stay up to date with schedule changes, so that the GCR can be coded and ready to go.
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It might also be a good time to bring up a slight change to this year’s model for both Men and Women. In prior years, we did not include point differential (PtDif) in the formula like we do in football. Early in the season, this leads to (it hurts even to type this) ties (ugh, the bane of American sports!). We’ve lessened the impact that PtDif has for basketball compared to football, but it is there this year. Testing shows that the PtDif is enough to separate teams but not enough to materially impact the prediction models. We’ll keep you up to date to any other changes in algorithm or approach as the season approaches and begins.
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But today is about the single college football game as the Sun Belt Conference showcases the Southern Miss Golden Eagles (1-3/161) at the Troy Trojans (2-2/103). Let’s break this down a little bit. When SMIS is driving, they have an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 87 (177th out of 266) which means that they score just 8.7 points for every 10.0 their opponents normally allow. They will face a Trojan Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 123 (93rd). The Golden Eagles may have trouble scoring. When Troy has the ball, they bring an OER of 100 (135th) vs a Southern Miss DER of 102 (150th). These seem evenly matched. The Golden Eagles have played the 116th most difficult schedule with a win vs Alcorn St (FCS), and losses at Auburn (C4) and Tulane (G6) alongside a home loss to UCONN (G6). The Trojans are sitting at 105th in strength of schedule beating both Alabama St (FCS) and Sam Houston (G6) and losses on the road to Utah St (G6) and Missouri (C4). Vegas likes TROY-10.5 at home and the GCR agrees the Trojans should win and cover. The current algorithm has Troy winning by 19.5, and the test has a 20.0-point victory. Watch the game on ESPN2 at 8:00pm.
| Time (ET) | Game of October 6th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 8:00 | Southern Miss (1-3/161) at Troy (2-2/103) | SUN | TROY -10.5 | TROY | TROY | ESPN2 |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for two Conference USA games. Thank you for reading (it is the reason we do this), commenting/suggesting (it’s how we get better), and sharing with others (it’s how we grow). Until tomorrow, JoJo and G.
