Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 704, our first midweek games for Conference USA this season. Last night, the Sun Belt took control with Troy (3-2/90) besting Southern Miss (1-4/165) 55-34. The Vegas line was TROY-10.5 which means the GCR starts the week off 1-0 straight up and 1-0 against the spread. This is probably a good time to remind our readers that our predictions are for entertainment purposes. We do not, nor do we encourage anyone to, bet on sporting events. If you do, please understand that all predictions models, including the GCR, are wrong – some are occasionally useful. Also, always bet only what you can afford to lose and always use reputable betting sites. We don’t post this message every time we publish, but the message is understood to apply to all posts from us.
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But today is about the (C-)USA and the two games they bring today. First up, at 7:00 (all times Eastern and pm), the Jax St Gamecocks (3-2/84) travel to the Kennesaw St Owls (1-3/135) for a game that is always interesting. That stadium is just 4.5 miles from the GCR lair (aka G’s house) and despite the difficult season for the Owls, there will be Hooting tonight. When the Gamecocks are on offense, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 116 (89th out of 266 teams) which means they score 11.6 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face an Owl Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 132 (71st) – not bad for a 1-3 team. That means they only allow 10.0 points for every 13.2 points their opponents normally score. On the flip side, KNST will bring an OER of 96 (149th) against a Jax St DER of 112 (115th). Points should be a little difficult on both sides and Vegas sees a close game: JXST-2.5. The GCR agrees the Gamecocks will win and cover. The current point differential algorithm shows 14.0 points while the new one in testing mode shows 12.0. You can watch this game on CBS Sports.
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At 7:30, the New Mexico St Aggies (2-3/125) attack the FIU Panthers (2-2/92). When NMST has the ball, they bring an OER of 99 (136th) vs a Panther DER of 170 (26th). When FIU is carrying, an OER of 69 (226th) will face an Aggie DER of 100 (153rd). This looks like a game in which both offenses will struggle, something like a 23-10 type score. Vegas has FIU-6.5 at home and the GCR agrees with that assessment. The current algorithm has FIU-13.5, and the test has FIU-14.0. Split your screen with ESPN2 and watch both games.
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If we didn’t make this clear already, we LOVE mid-week games by Group of 6 teams. Most of these teams are on ESPN+ on Saturdays so this is their big chance to be on national television with limited competition (ok, the MLB playoffs and WNBA playoffs and NHL hockey, but no football competition). Check them out if you can. Both games look to be defensive-oriented classic football. Perfect for a Wednesday night in October. Here is tonight’s summary:
| Time (ET) | Games of October 7th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Jax St (3-2/84) at Kennesaw St (1-3/135) | USA | JXST -2.5 | JXST | JXST | CBS Sports |
| 7:30 | New Mexico St (2-3/125) at FIU (2-2/92) | USA | FIU -6.5 | FIU | FIU | ESPN2 |
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That’s it for today, tune in tomorrow for our four Thursday games this week. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G.
