Welcome back, oh great and wonderful sports fans, to episode 705 which is all about the college football games today. First let’s review the two games played last night – a couple of Conference USA matchups. Jax St (4-2/81) edged out Kennesaw St (1-4/139) 27-26 in a game that had eight, yes, eight lead changes. It could have been nine, but JXST intercepted a pass at midfield with 20 ticks on the clock. The GCR prediction was for the Gamecocks to cover the 2.5-point spread. They won (hurray!) but failed to cover (oops!). This week’s record goes to 2-0 picking the winner and 1-1 against the spread. Our second game was not as close and had zero lead changes as FIU (3-2/76) bested New Mexico St (2-4/132) 22-3. The Panthers won and covered the 13.5-point spread as we predicted which brings us to 3-0/2-1 this week.
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On a different topic, time has always fascinated us especially in the sense that some hours/days/weeks seem to fly by while others almost seem to last for eons. Probably due to JoJo approaching fall break and G having multiple added responsibilities this week, it’s been the latter for us. We are ready for the weekend, obviously because there are more games on Saturday, but also because we’re ready for a break in the action. Since we are on this topic, Hurricane Isaias is in the Gulf of Mexico and headed towards land fall near Pensacola, FL. If you are in the path, please do what you need to do to protect yourself and your family. We also are expecting delays (possibly to Sunday?) or even cancellations (more than likely at the FCS level or for non-conference games) due to this storm. These schedule changes could occur from Eastern Texas to South Carolina, from Florida to Tennessee or even Southern Kentucky. We will be monitoring and will keep you apprised in each day’s Expectation.
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Tonight, we have 4 games including our first two, both at 7:00 (all times Eastern and pm), that are the remaining Conference USA games for the week. The Missouri St Bears (1-3/130) will invade the W Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-4/134) who not only have a red blob for a mascot (odd, but oddly lovable), they are located in Bowling Green, KY not to be confused with Bowling Green of the MAC located in Bowling Green, OH. When the Bears have the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 88 which is ranked 176th out of 266 teams. That means they score 8.8 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a WKY Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 83 (203rd) which means they allow 10.0 points for every 8.3 points their opponents normally score. These ratings are a wash with no clear advantage for either team. When the Hilltoppers take control, they bring an OER of 84 (187th) vs a Bear DER of 83 (203rd). Same scenario here. These teams are remarkably similar this season, so far. Vegas thinks so too, picking WKY-1.5 which is below the typical 3.5 points given to the home team. The GCR, despite JoJo loving the WKY mascot, predicts a very slight upset as MOST should win the game and cover. If you so choose, the game can be seen on CBS Sports. It may not be the “best” football tonight, but it should be very close.
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Also at 7:00 aired on ESPNU, is our final C-USA game this week as the Sam Houston Bearkats (1-3/115) head to the Liberty Flames (4-1/45). This one should not be close. SHOU brings an OER of 111 (103rd) vs a Flames DER of 151 (49th). On the flip side a Liberty OER of 121 (75th) attacks a Bearkats DER of 111 (119th). In both cases, Liberty shows to be the better team. Vegas thinks so with LIB-13.5 at home. The GCR concurs for both the win and to cover.
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The Sun Belt joins the fray at 7:30 when the South Alabama Jaguars (3-2/87) take on the Arkansas St Red Wolves (2-3/113). SALA offense vs ARST defense: 116/88th vs 115/108th. Very even. The Red Wolves have an OER of 108 (113th) vs a Jaguar DER of 86 (192nd). Not very even. Arkansas St may have an easier time scoring that South Alabama. Vegas thinks so with ARST-2.5 (again under the typical home field mark), but the GCR sees South Alabama with the upset. This game will be on ESPN2.
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Our final matchup tonight, also at 7:30, takes us to the American Conference when the South Florida Bulls (4-1/66) travels to the UTSA Roadrunners (4-1/64) in what looks like a very close game. OER/DER ratios: SFLA/UTSA -112 (100th)/111 (122nd) and UTSA/SFLA – 131 (113th)/152 (46th). These show strength on strength and weakness on weakness, but comparable. Vegas has UTSA-6.5 winning at home but, in another road game steal predicted, the GCR sees the Bulls taking this one. This game is on ESPN.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 8th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Missouri St (1-3/130) at W Kentucky (1-4/134) | USA | WKY -1.5 | MOST | MOST | CBS Sports |
| 7:00 | Sam Houston (1-3/115) at Liberty (4-1/45) | USA | LIB -13.5 | LIB | LIB | ESPNU |
| 7:30 | South Alabama (3-2/87) at Arkansas St (2-3/113) | SUN | ARST -2.5 | SALA | SALA | ESPN2 |
| 7:30 | South Florida (4-1/66) at UTSA (4-1/64) | AAC | UTSA -6.5 | SFLA | SFLA | ESPN |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for 7 more games as we move to Saturday’s main event (weather permitting). Thank you for taking the time to read our content, suggesting improvements, and sharing us with others, JoJo and G.
