G’s Evaluation or A New Number One Team!

Welcome, oh great and wonderful college football fans, to episode 688 or the analysis of the season so far including not only the Top 266 (with a new top team replacing Miami FL from last week), but also prediction accuracy and conference success to date.

…..

Kudos to the Texas Longhorns (2-0/30) who roared back from a 23-3 second-half deficit at Ohio St (1-1/18) to win 24-23 in the last minute – Ohio St was AP #1. Note: the GCR can show “illogical” rankings (like OHST being 12 places higher than TEX) because of early season strength of schedule (SOS) fluctuations – all will stabilize as the season continues. Kudos also to FCS Illinois St (3-0/121) who invaded N Illinois (0-2/145) and made them pay, literally and figuratively. Final Kudos to Oklahoma St (1-1/66) who upset Oregon (1-1/85), to end the longest losing streak in college football at 12 games. It is the first time that a 10+game losing streak was broken vs an AP Top 10 team – Oregon was #2. Flags to the Big Ten who were just 11-6 including those two losses mentioned above. Rutgers, Ohio St, Oregon, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois all lost to Core 4 schools with just Michigan and Iowa winning in those situations. Flags (unsportsmanlike) to James Madison (2-0/62) who was playing an historically bad team (Wagner: 1-2/247) in a historically bad conference (Northeast) 87-3. The worst part was that, up 80-3 with 4:36 to play, JMU drove 69 yards on 4 plays. With 2nd and goal on the 1-yard line, the QB looked to the sideline, hung his head (because he knew this was unnecessary), then handed the ball off for a last TD with 22 seconds to go. Billy Napier (head coach) should be ashamed of himself. Winning is one thing. Purposefully humiliating a lesser opponent is uncalled for. Final Flags to Nevada (1-1/88) who couldn’t handle their FCS opponent Montana St (3-0/54). The only division upsets (Core 4 losing to non-Core 4, Group of 6 losing to FCS, or FCS losing to non-division I) yesterday were ILST/NILL and MTST/NEV – those two FCS teams played for the national championship last year.

…..

Speaking of wins and losses, last week we started a new bit of analysis ranking the conferences by winning percentage. We will still have monthly GCR ranking of the conferences (which may or may not be in winning percentage order due to SOS), but this weekly report gives an idea of which conferences are exceeding or failing to meet expectations. In the table below, the record and winning percentage includes all games. Remember conference games are automatic 1-1/500 and can impact the overall percentage, so we show how many of those games have been played as “x CG”. Here is the Week 2 analysis.

W% RankFBSFCS
1SEC (29-3/906) 1 CGMissouri Valley (18-8/692) 0 CG
2Big Ten (28-8/778) 0 CGMEAC (11-7/611) 0 CG
3B12 (24-8/750) 1 CGSWAC (17-17/500) 3 CG
4Independents (3-1/750) 0 CGSouthland (14-15/483) 5 CG
5ACC (24-10/706) 4 CGUAC (11-12/478) 1 CG
6Sun Belt (17-11/607) 0 CGBig Sky (18-21/462) 8 CG
7American (16-13/552) 2 CGPatriot League (12-15/444) 8 CG
8Mountain West (13-11/542) 2 CGSoCon (13-17/433) 4 CG
9MAC (13-15/464) 1 CGPioneer League (12-17/414) 0 CG
10Conference USA (8-14/364) 0 CGCAA (15-23/395) 5 CG
11Pac 12 (5-11/313) 0 CGFCS Indies (2-4/333) 0 CG
12Big South/Ohio Valley (6-18/250) 1 CG
13Northeast (5-17/227) 2 CG
14Ivy League – No Games Played

…..

We had our first full week of GCR predictions. As a reminder, the GCR has no preconceived notions about which teams should be “good” or “bad”. Until two seasons ago, we did not predict any games until after week 4 which allowed for enough data to avoid sample-size caused issues. We modified the formulae and, while we fully expect later weeks to be more accurate, we think the entertainment value of the predictions outweighs the overly conservative delay. In the table below, the columns separate teh type of game with C4 indicating a Core 4 (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Notre Dame) team, G6 indicating a Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, UCONN) team. and FCS indicating the 14 conferences (see the list in the above table). The first set of numbers show the GCR accuracy straight up or just picking the winners for each game. For example, the algorithm was correct 9 out of 14 times picking the winner in C4/C4 games this week. However, against the Vegas spread (more in a moment), the calculation was just 6 out of 14 as shown in the second line. Let’s say team A was Vegas favored by 3.5 points and the GCR agreed. They beat team B 31-30. The GCR would get accuracy credit in the top line for selecting Team A but fail to get accuracy credit in the second line. Hope that makes sense. Let me know and I can provide real life examples. We will keep this table running all season so that we can see if our hypothesis that the GCR will become more accurate over time is valid. Our targets are 75% accurate straight up (SU) and 60% accurate against the spread (ATS). For games involving FBS (C4 and G6) teams, the GCR is 65-24 (730) SU and 46-42 (523) ATS.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0
10-2 (0)
0-2 (0)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643)
14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941)
11-6 (647)
8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709)
56-60 (483)
Total9-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941)
11-6 (647)
8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-3 (833)
10-8 (556)
17-7 (708)
10-13 (435)
36-20 (643)
24-30 (444)
101-44 (697)
70-72 (493)

…..

And that brings us to the primary purpose of any G’s Evaluation: The Top 266. Our new leader is Alabama (2-0/1) after a 2nd half runaway at Kentucky (1-1/103). Dropping to our last spot is West Georgia (0-3/266) after a 52-7 loss to Arkansas St (1-1/107). With no further ado, the Top 266 for Week 2.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPI
1AlabamaSEC2046.513.511.6811
2Mississippi StSEC2050.013.011.6515
3Notre DameND2046.56.511.547
4UCLAB102036.517.011.282
5Miami FLACC2061.06.511.1621
6LSUSEC2048.012.011.084
7Texas A&MSEC2049.010.011.027
8Southern CalB103043.318.710.8312
9Penn StB102036.04.510.726
10MissouriSEC2046.017.510.1332
11VirginiaACC2046.55.510.0814
12NebraskaB102052.514.09.9819
13PittsburghACC2035.510.59.7613
14TennesseeSEC2050.516.59.7326
15UtahB122054.512.09.6830
16MarylandB102050.07.09.6537
17DukeACC2024.015.09.501
18Ohio StB101139.513.59.5050
19Wake ForestACC2038.026.09.467
20Michigan StB102032.513.59.4216
21FloridaSEC2059.012.09.3622
22CincinnatiB122048.012.59.3429
23AuburnSEC2030.012.09.347
24MississippiSEC2041.023.59.1923
25South CarolinaSEC2051.04.59.1534
26IowaB102028.06.59.1517
27IndianaB102053.58.09.1328
28Fresno StPAC1124.521.09.0671
29OklahomaSEC1130.58.59.0645
30TexasSEC2041.515.09.054
31GeorgiaSEC2066.511.58.8143
32BYUB122045.512.08.8123
33SMUACC2041.517.08.8118
34Virginia TechACC2058.512.08.7940
35Kansas StB122052.55.08.7625
36UMASSMAC2037.015.58.5585
37North CarolinaACC2025.06.58.5526
38MichiganB102015.011.08.493
39TulsaAAC2023.513.58.3838
40North Dakota StMWC3036.313.08.3464
41VanderbiltSEC2031.517.58.2734
42Georgia StSUN2045.013.58.2275
43Texas TechB122034.017.08.2131
44New MexicoMWC2054.07.08.2064
45West VirginiaB122041.515.58.1739
46HoustonB122055.013.08.1632
47LouisianaSUN1134.028.08.0493
48San Jose StMWC2127.727.78.0466
49Colorado StPAC2046.518.57.8867
50UCFB121140.09.07.8653
51Iowa StB121125.513.07.8579
52WashingtonB102020.012.07.7819
53South FloridaAAC2023.516.57.6541
54Montana StSKY3041.710.37.61170
55ArizonaB121126.017.57.4970
56ColoradoB122033.017.07.4434
57Florida StACC1129.022.07.4154
58ClemsonACC1116.029.07.4045
59IllinoisB101134.527.07.4047
60BaylorB121130.010.07.3155
61Boston CollegeACC1121.527.57.2550
62James MadisonSUN2053.58.07.1572
63LouisvilleACC1148.527.07.1479
64TCUB121136.511.07.1374
65Arizona StB121145.027.57.0559
66Oklahoma StB121124.527.57.0349
67NorthwesternB101034.018.06.9944
68UTSAAAC2038.021.06.8260
69PurdueB101140.028.56.7161
70App StSUN2041.013.56.6662
71ArkansasSEC1120.528.56.5986
72Idaho StSKY3042.014.76.52165
73W MichiganMAC1130.513.56.4892
74TroySUN2029.019.06.3268
75North TexasAAC1130.029.06.2176
76NC StACC1140.517.06.1369
77CoastalSUN1134.519.05.8598
78MemphisAAC2129.727.75.8297
79WisconsinB101124.525.05.8158
80Boise StPAC1132.527.05.7987
81DelawareUSA1134.021.05.74103
82CaliforniaACC1122.531.55.7042
83ToledoMAC1141.520.05.6999
84FIUUSA1121.019.55.6587
85OregonB101132.533.05.5948
86TulaneAAC1115.520.55.4756
87LehighPAT3041.314.75.38206
88NevadaMWC1128.017.05.22130
89Air ForceMWC1133.019.05.22121
90AkronMAC1130.524.05.1656
91San Diego StPAC1131.524.05.1494
92SyracuseACC1142.012.05.1079
93KansasB121136.022.05.0677
94FAUAAC1129.548.04.9183
95Old DominionSUN1126.027.04.87109
96Southern MissSUN1128.523.04.8589
97LA TechSUN1147.025.54.82101
98North DakotaMFC3050.323.34.72213
99ArmyAAC1141.515.54.71108
100MinnesotaB101136.022.54.6984
101OhioMAC1125.038.04.6678
102StanfordACC1121.536.04.6452
103KentuckySEC1131.029.04.6379
104Jax StUSA1227.723.04.55126
105RiceAAC1115.527.54.5389
106Steph F AustinSLAN3036.013.74.52200
107Arkansas StSUN1138.024.54.50131
108Miami OHMAC1129.533.04.4994
109Missouri StUSA1124.032.04.4894
110LibertyUSA1118.521.54.42123
111Kent StMAC1118.036.04.40105
112MarshallSUN1114.035.54.3863
113Mid TennUSA1132.021.04.33114
114South DakotaMFC3046.022.04.25214
115TarletonUAC3032.022.34.25171
116TN TechSoCon3035.714.04.23231
117South AlabamaSUN1131.521.04.19113
118E MichiganMAC1218.726.34.04100
119Georgia TechACC0218.529.54.01111
120WyomingMWC1117.024.04.00123
121Illinois StMFC3048.311.33.96147
122NavyAAC1136.026.53.89104
123C MichiganMAC1110.024.03.82121
124West FloridaUAC2038.022.53.81210
125Utah StPAC0215.522.53.64184
126Ga SouthernSUN1119.011.03.58110
127Washington StPAC028.529.03.56115
128UNLVMWC1216.025.73.55112
129MontanaSKY3036.015.03.51191
130Kennesaw StUSA1132.015.53.39123
131BuffaloMAC1120.525.03.37119
132UABAAC1124.531.03.3773
133TempleAAC1123.520.53.0691
134Sam HoustonUSA0219.023.52.88132
135UTEPMWC1125.530.52.75106
136UCONNIND1135.022.52.65102
137Ball StMAC1122.036.52.61106
138East CarolinaAAC0217.037.52.57116
139Oregon StPAC0222.034.02.57116
140New Mexico StUSA1229.025.72.52127
141RutgersB100221.032.52.31135
142HawaiiMWC1220.725.72.31120
143AlbanyCAA2126.716.02.30194
144Sacramento StMAC1224.025.72.26129
145N IllinoisMWC0212.034.02.19135
146CharlotteAAC0225.042.02.18155
147ColgatePAT2123.012.32.13165
148Texas StPAC0216.545.02.12116
149SC StMEAC3061.34.32.02159
150Bowling GreenMAC0210.038.01.95150
151ULMSUN0216.544.01.91128
152MercerSoCon2132.712.71.86219
153ElonCAA2130.012.71.78240
154N IowaMFC1140.024.01.78250
155S IllinoisMFC2129.024.01.67228
156Alabama A&MSWAC2130.719.01.31176
157Jackson StSWAC2046.019.01.14153
158Rhode IslandCAA2126.318.30.95168
159South Dakota StMFC2148.318.30.93162
160W KentuckyUSA0217.059.50.90148
161Delaware StMEAC2125.720.70.74237
162DaytonPFL2036.513.50.69243
163William & MaryPAT2125.730.30.68232
164Austin PeayUAC2135.717.30.54143
165BryantCAA2119.322.70.53168
166NC CentralMEAC2129.023.30.50226
167BucknellPAT1214.718.30.49228
168East TexasSLAN1220.027.00.18247
169MaristPFL1219.017.70.09249
170ChattanoogaSoCon1216.718.70.08246
171E WashingtonSKY1228.033.00.06244
172StonehillNEC1220.723.00.03241
173BrownIVY000.00.00.00 
173ColumbiaIVY000.00.00.00 
173CornellIVY000.00.00.00 
173DartmouthIVY000.00.00.00 
173HarvardIVY000.00.00.00 
173PennIVY000.00.00.00 
173PrincetonIVY000.00.00.00 
173YaleIVY000.00.00.00 
181ValparaisoPFL1138.520.0-0.12245
182C ArkansasUAC2136.322.0-0.12199
183ButlerPFL2134.324.7-0.18238
184Alabama StSWAC2127.017.0-0.20163
185WoffordSoCon2124.721.0-0.21188
186Incarnate WordSLAN1152.026.0-0.23235
187Cal PolySKY2127.327.0-0.29142
188CitadelSoCon1225.736.3-0.35233
189Youngstown StMFC2142.022.7-0.37149
190St ThomasPFL2132.328.3-0.43253
191UC DavisSKY2130.032.3-0.56145
192Chicago StFCSIND1237.731.0-0.67211
193Robert MorrisNEC2122.320.3-0.71218
194Morehead StPFL1240.743.0-0.73255
195Gardner WebbBSOV0317.725.3-0.84206
196McNeeseSLAN1234.321.7-0.85252
197LamarSLAN2117.023.0-1.06141
198PresbyterianPFL1125.049.5-1.34248
199Houston ChrSLAN2141.719.7-1.34154
200StetsonPFL1223.341.0-1.50216
201CampbellCAA2126.736.0-1.52134
202North AlabamaUAC1220.323.7-1.62196
203SamfordSoCon0315.729.7-1.66254
204DavidsonPFL1221.031.0-1.68257
205DrakePFL0319.746.3-1.74258
206N ArizonaSKY2126.330.0-1.75161
207Chrls SoBSOV1214.323.7-1.87234
208NichollsSLAN2126.036.3-1.91152
209New HavenNEC1213.033.0-1.94239
210Stony BrookCAA1229.038.0-2.06227
211RichmondPAT2121.036.0-2.09146
212S UtahSKY1230.742.7-2.13177
213Rio GrandeSLAN1229.325.3-2.14192
214Alcorn StSWAC2137.335.7-2.26140
215N ColoradoSKY0321.729.7-2.31220
216SELASLAN1224.032.7-2.34224
217FurmanSoCon2116.324.0-2.37172
218Abilene ChrUAC0310.326.7-2.39206
219Indiana StMFC1227.334.0-2.41178
220LindenwoodBSOV1222.033.7-2.43198
221Murray StMFC1218.328.0-2.66236
222W CarolinaSoCon1224.737.0-2.74144
223MonmouthCAA1219.737.0-2.74181
224Morgan StMEAC2126.325.7-2.79139
225TX SouthernSWAC1222.044.3-2.87222
226Prairie ViewSWAC1228.335.7-2.90181
227Weber StSKY1231.042.7-2.96174
228UT MartinBSOV1224.331.7-3.07187
229E KentuckyUAC1216.737.0-3.10209
230MaineCAA1212.732.0-3.11190
231MerrimackFCSIND1212.330.0-3.31179
232Ark Pine BluffSWAC1233.340.7-3.32158
233E IllinoisBSOV1223.338.3-3.34183
234SEMOBSOV1217.731.0-3.36184
235HowardMEAC1217.335.7-3.55160
236GramblingSWAC2134.732.0-3.69133
237MS ValleySWAC1213.738.7-3.70205
238LafayettePAT1110.032.5-3.77167
239Sacred HeartCAA0217.034.0-3.80214
240E Tenn StSoCon1229.332.7-3.89138
241VillanovaPAT1220.736.7-3.90193
242San DiegoPFL0217.054.0-3.97241
243Nwestern StSLAN0319.053.3-3.99230
244NC A&TCAA0313.035.3-4.02223
245New HampshireCAA1219.743.0-4.05217
246SouthernSWAC1219.040.7-4.24180
247WagnerNEC1213.740.7-4.32189
248Florida A&MSWAC1213.338.3-4.36173
249BethuneSWAC1124.545.5-4.40151
250IdahoSKY0321.742.3-4.44186
251W IllinoisBSOV1228.030.3-4.75137
252TN StBSOV0310.039.7-4.80225
253Portland StSKY0322.343.7-4.91201
254GeorgetownPAT0114.045.0-5.08251
255Holy CrossPAT039.038.3-5.17220
256HamptonCAA1216.031.0-5.27164
257DuquesneNEC026.552.0-5.58202
258VMISoCon035.341.7-5.64204
259Norfolk StMEAC1223.030.0-5.68255
260C ConnecticutNEC0215.061.0-5.93197
261FordhamPAT037.035.7-6.01155
262Long IslandNEC0313.342.7-6.12202
263TowsonCAA0314.036.0-6.13157
264Utah TechSKY037.050.7-6.48175
265MercyhurstNEC0310.354.7-6.68195
266West GeorgiaUAC035.741.0-7.19212

…..

That’s it for today. Thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), commenting or suggesting (it’s how we improve), and sharing with others (it’s how we grow). The next games are Thursday 9/17. Stay tuned as we may have a special mid-week post. Until next time, JoJo and G.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *