G’s Evaluation or A New Number One!

Welcome back, college football fans, to episode 693 or the Top 266 for Week 3. There were some disappointments (Colorado [2-1/76] falling badly (41-7) at Northwestern [2-0/20]), some inclusion (the Ivy League went 4-4 in their opening weekend), and the oddest (legit) ending of a game we’ve ever seen. NC St (1-2/95) was up 31-28 with six seconds to go deep in their own territory. With it being 4th and long, they elected to take a safety for the one-point road win. However, the QB never took a knee. All he had to do was take the knee with 2 seconds left, punt the free kick from the 20, and hold Vandy off for one play. Instead, he seemed, almost, to seek out contact. The ball punched loose and a Commodore fell on it in the end zone for a touchdown. After review, which was confirmed, they officials added 1 second to the clock – 1 second from winning the game for the Wolfpack. The line was Vandy-3.5, so the extra second meant the extra point was required putting them up 35-31.

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Each Evaluation for football this season, we are adding a simple table that ranks each conference by winning percentage, inclusive of conference games. However, we reference the number of conference games which can raise (if the conference has a losing record) or lower (winning record) the overall percentage. If there is a tie between two conferences, the higher non-conference winning percentage will be listed first. For example, the SEC non-conference pct is 944 compared to the FBS Indies 833. This week we are adding a second table focusing just on the Core 4 conferences (and Notre Dame) to show how they have competed against each other. First the conference rank for Week 3.

W% RankFBSFCS
1SEC (40-8/833) 6 CGMEAC (14-9/609) 0 CG
2Independents (5-1/833) 0 CGMissouri Valley (21-14/600) 1 CG
3Big Ten (42-12/778) 2 CGSWAC (22-21/512) 3 CG
4B12 (37-11/771) 3 CGUAC (15-16/484) 2 CG
5ACC (33-18/647) 9 CGSouthland (18-20/474) 7 CG
6Sun Belt (22-20/524) 0 CGPatriot League (17-20/459) 10 CG
7American (21-20/512) 2 CGBig Sky (23-28/451) 9 CG
8Mountain West (14-17/452) 2 CGPioneer League (17-21/447) 0 CG
9Conference USA (13-18/419) 0 CGSoCon (16-21/432) 5 CG
10Pac 12 (10-14/417) 0 CGCAA (20-31/392) 9 CG
11MAC (17-24/415) 1 CGBig South/Ohio Valley (11-20/355) 1 CG
12FCS Indies (2-6/250) 0 CG
13Northeast (6-23/207) 2 CG
14Ivy League (5-3/0) 0 CG

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For the table below we took each game between Core 4 teams (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame) and did a side-by-side comparison. Counting conference games, the ACC has played 24 Core 4 games out of 42 (57.1%). The Big 12: 15 out of 45 (33.3%). The Big Ten: 15 out of 52 (28.8%). The SEC: 18 out of 42 (42.8%), and Notre Dame 2 out of 3 (66.7%). In those games, only the SEC and Notre Dame have winning records.

Conferencevs ACCvs Big 12vs Big Tenvs SECvs Notre Damevs Core 4
ACC2-3 (400)4-1 (800)0-5 (000)0-06-9 (400)
Big 123-2 (600)1-2 (333)1-3 (250)0-05-7 (417)
Big Ten1-4 (200)2-1 (667)1-2 (333)0-2 (000)4-9 (308)
SEC5-0 (1000)3-1 (750)2-1 (667)0-010-2 (833)
Notre Dame0-00-02-0 (1000)0-02-0 (1000)

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We made two changes in the last couple of years that, we hope, make each Expectation a bit more entertaining. Last year, we began predictions once both teams played at least one game. This year, we started publishing Expectations every game day instead of just once a week. We’ve also added a week-by-week accuracy report in both straight up (picking the winner) and against the spread (which team will cover the Vegas point spread). This week was a bit mixed. In the table below the top set of numbers is (correct predictions-incorrect predictions (accuracy rate)) with the straight up values on top and against the spread (ATS) values below. In straight up, we had a slight improvement overall, although still below the 750 target, that would have been larger without the dropoff in G6/G6 matchups. The overall ATS is well below our target of 580 driven by every game combination falling well below. We do expect both values to improve over time as we have more data. We are also continuing to test a similar structure that we use for basketball. If that new method shows better results, we could switch mid-season.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0
10-2 (0)
0-2 (0)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643)
14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941)
11-6 (647)
8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709)
56-60 (483)
313-7 (650)
10-10 (500)
18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712)
53-53 (500)
Total22-12 (647)
16-18 (471)
34-2 (944)
20-16 (556)
17-8 (680)
15-10 (600)
23-13 (639)
18-18 (500)
25-8 (758)
13-19 (406)
59-33 (641)
41-44 (482)
180-76 (703)
123-125 (496)

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To close our Evaluation, we have a new #1 team. After weeks 0 and 1, Miami FL (3-0/4) took the top spot. Alabama (3-0/3) took over the next week. This week based on a 2nd straight road win at a Core 4 school, Mississippi St (3-0/1) earned the title of Top Dog (yes, that’s a pun as well as accurate). With no further ado, we give you the Top 266 from those Bulldogs from Starkville to Portland St.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPI
1Mississippi StSEC3047.020.012.5912
2Notre DameND3040.07.712.354
3AlabamaSEC3047.721.012.333
4Miami FLACC3051.711.012.2811
5UCLAB103041.724.011.768
6Penn StB103042.37.311.5213
7GeorgiaSEC3059.313.311.4124
8Southern CalB104043.022.811.1010
9TennesseeSEC3047.714.011.0826
10DukeACC3027.712.310.891
11BYUB123044.015.710.7118
12FloridaSEC3054.021.010.699
13PittsburghACC3032.711.310.695
14UtahB123047.38.010.6627
15Virginia TechACC3050.716.710.5923
16TexasSEC3037.712.010.577
17MissouriSEC3039.717.310.5122
18MississippiSEC3038.023.710.462
19IndianaB103048.35.310.3832
20NorthwesternB102037.512.510.3515
21NebraskaB103046.311.710.3334
22MichiganB103027.313.010.056
23CincinnatiB123043.718.79.9820
24West VirginiaB123040.319.39.9316
25IowaB103037.04.39.9029
26Kansas StB123045.310.09.8314
27North Dakota StMWC4035.012.39.7671
28Texas TechB123032.020.09.5317
29LSUSEC2140.018.79.4321
30Ohio StB102146.010.09.3738
31VanderbiltSEC3032.722.09.2219
32WashingtonB103029.313.38.9831
33UMASSMAC3036.715.08.9386
34TulsaAAC3029.79.08.9152
35James MadisonSUN3044.39.78.7758
36OklahomaSEC2125.07.78.4525
37Iowa StB122135.311.08.2862
38VirginiaACC2140.016.38.1339
39South FloridaAAC3035.316.78.0465
40Texas A&MSEC2139.717.08.0036
41UCFB122141.316.07.9843
42Michigan StB102125.018.07.9835
43HoustonB122145.318.07.9649
44Fresno StPAC2125.017.37.9464
45LouisvilleACC2146.028.37.9240
46ArizonaB122131.317.37.7255
47MarylandB102142.016.37.7054
48AuburnSEC2133.022.77.6428
49App StSUN3036.016.07.6166
50South CarolinaSEC2145.316.77.4151
51IllinoisB102139.021.37.3457
52Oklahoma StB122136.018.37.3450
53BaylorB122132.013.07.3059
54TCUB122134.79.77.2567
55North CarolinaACC2123.313.77.1846
56WisconsinB102134.320.07.1047
57Idaho StSKY3042.014.77.09148
58OregonB102149.722.06.9253
59ClemsonACC2120.026.06.9230
60Boston CollegeACC2121.723.76.8445
61SMUACC2138.025.06.8044
62W MichiganMAC2129.716.06.7668
63Wake ForestACC2132.028.36.6933
64Montana StSKY4040.015.36.66180
65Arizona StB122138.024.06.6156
66KentuckySEC2131.026.36.6137
67New MexicoMWC2138.09.36.5177
68MemphisAAC3133.526.06.4585
69MinnesotaB102137.717.36.2748
70LibertyUSA2129.319.36.26100
71Boise StPAC2134.326.06.2289
72LouisianaSUN2129.723.36.1778
73Georgia StSUN2140.023.76.0690
74HarvardIVY1031.07.06.04218
75DelawareUSA2130.018.75.9974
76ColoradoB122124.325.05.9942
77CaliforniaACC2131.323.35.8441
78Mid TennUSA2130.320.75.72102
79TroySUN2125.021.75.5075
80UTSAAAC2127.324.05.4569
81South AlabamaSUN2134.726.05.3483
82Steph F AustinSLAN4034.812.85.16191
83FAUAAC2125.035.35.1560
84Florida StACC1231.331.35.1372
85MarshallSUN2119.331.75.1263
86UCONNIND2139.321.75.0487
87ToledoMAC2144.029.35.0479
88C MichiganMAC2114.719.34.93106
89Colorado StPAC2138.726.04.8680
90LehighPAT4037.016.04.84225
91PurdueB101239.336.34.7876
92SyracuseACC1232.317.04.7481
93TN TechSoCon3035.714.04.60222
94TarletonUAC4035.321.84.60172
95NC StACC1237.323.04.5682
96Illinois StMFC4048.511.84.54157
97ArmyAAC1141.515.54.50120
98Jax StUSA2228.524.04.43114
99Air ForceMWC1133.019.04.40123
100PennIVY1020.07.04.39237
101NavyAAC1136.026.54.19115
102San Jose StMWC2223.327.34.1196
103NevadaMWC1225.320.34.00133
104FIUUSA1217.318.33.8399
105YaleIVY1038.028.03.75229
106CoastalSUN1227.720.03.71104
107TulaneAAC1217.024.03.7170
108Georgia TechACC1227.023.33.5493
109KansasB121229.722.73.4895
110North TexasAAC1231.735.73.44110
111Sam HoustonUSA1232.315.73.32111
112StanfordACC1216.735.73.2461
113Miami OHMAC1230.033.73.2084
114Washington StPAC1221.721.73.18107
115UNLVMWC1216.025.73.14128
116ArkansasSEC1219.334.03.1397
117BrownIVY1017.010.03.02234
118Ga SouthernSUN1221.717.73.02127
119OhioMAC1228.739.02.94108
120East CarolinaAAC1218.030.72.9288
121Texas StPAC1227.341.72.8773
122Old DominionSUN1223.024.72.8494
123UABAAC1221.027.72.73109
124ColgatePAT3122.311.02.57190
125Arkansas StSUN1227.726.72.52129
126San Diego StPAC1225.324.72.4998
127Oregon StPAC1232.028.32.28103
128New Mexico StUSA1229.025.72.24135
129WyomingMWC1214.724.02.24131
130RiceAAC1217.327.72.22101
131TempleAAC1231.730.02.20116
132SC StMEAC4051.07.52.16173
133South DakotaMFC3140.526.02.11163
134LA TechSUN1237.729.02.10117
135BuffaloMAC1218.035.02.05121
136ColumbiaIVY1040.034.02.05182
137RutgersB100325.735.72.00119
138Kennesaw StUSA1224.324.31.94124
139HawaiiMWC1220.725.71.92125
140UTEPMWC1222.737.71.9091
141ElonCAA3128.514.81.88244
142Missouri StUSA1224.031.31.87112
143AkronMAC1222.729.71.8492
144Austin PeayUAC3136.317.01.74149
145Ball StMAC1219.741.31.51122
146Utah StPAC0310.326.01.37136
147South Dakota StMFC3143.018.81.34142
148Alabama A&MSWAC3134.315.01.33170
149ChattanoogaSoCon2222.815.81.27249
150North DakotaMFC3139.526.01.27150
151E MichiganMAC1316.533.31.25105
152DaytonPFL3030.013.71.23227
153AlbanyCAA2225.019.01.22220
154Jackson StSWAC3044.315.01.17169
155CharlotteAAC0323.736.71.16139
156Kent StMAC1213.043.71.10113
157Sacramento StMAC1320.527.01.10132
158West FloridaUAC2130.727.71.09209
159BryantCAA3119.820.50.98186
160ButlerPFL3137.523.50.94257
161Southern MissSUN1225.731.30.84118
162Incarnate WordSLAN2144.725.00.66238
163MontanaSKY3131.324.30.58183
164UC DavisSKY3133.826.00.52153
165ULMSUN0322.742.00.47141
166Gardner WebbBSOV1324.324.00.35215
167MaristPFL1219.017.70.08258
168St ThomasPFL3131.327.80.04199
169N IllinoisMWC0313.736.70.02134
170Rhode IslandCAA2225.827.80.00210
171NC CentralMEAC2226.828.5-0.17256
172CampbellCAA3130.530.5-0.27140
173DartmouthIVY0120.024.0-0.33265
174N ArizonaSKY3128.528.3-0.34145
175CitadelSoCon1225.736.3-0.40240
176North AlabamaUAC2224.822.8-0.43195
177Alabama StSWAC2127.017.0-0.46146
178Bowling GreenMAC039.043.7-0.47137
179BucknellPAT1312.818.8-0.51248
180Stony BrookCAA2235.834.5-0.53211
181Youngstown StMFC2236.523.8-0.53151
182C ArkansasUAC2229.523.3-0.60224
183Cal PolySKY2229.329.8-0.66198
184W KentuckyUSA0311.352.3-0.71130
185PrincetonIVY0114.021.0-0.80261
186William & MaryPAT2226.035.8-0.83233
187Robert MorrisNEC2122.320.3-0.84220
188SELASLAN2227.533.3-0.84204
189ValparaisoPFL1231.026.3-0.90251
190DavidsonPFL2222.529.3-0.94252
191WoffordSoCon2220.326.0-0.94230
192Indiana StMFC2230.329.5-0.97193
193Rio GrandeSLAN2228.821.5-1.02179
194Morgan StMEAC3130.025.8-1.03158
195W CarolinaSoCon2233.031.3-1.13152
196LamarSLAN2117.023.0-1.14144
197Chicago StFCSIND1333.335.0-1.18253
198McNeeseSLAN1328.323.0-1.27262
199Chrls SoBSOV2227.017.8-1.34242
200Houston ChrSLAN2237.022.3-1.38206
201RichmondPAT3121.832.3-1.38162
202Morehead StPFL1331.047.0-1.41245
203MonmouthCAA2221.832.8-1.43189
204CornellIVY017.020.0-1.49259
205MercerSoCon2227.320.5-1.53187
206Weber StSKY2235.537.0-1.56194
207Delaware StMEAC2223.530.3-1.76201
208StonehillNEC1319.026.3-1.77239
209S IllinoisMFC2224.330.0-1.77178
210N ColoradoSKY1322.026.5-1.77243
211SEMOBSOV2220.025.5-1.80188
212SamfordSoCon0315.729.7-1.90260
213PresbyterianPFL1221.352.3-1.93247
214DrakePFL0319.746.3-1.97263
215StetsonPFL1319.342.0-2.00266
216S UtahSKY1329.539.0-2.03202
217New HavenNEC1312.329.0-2.16254
218East TexasSLAN1315.030.8-2.27217
219San DiegoPFL1224.047.7-2.32250
220FurmanSoCon2216.523.0-2.39181
221Alcorn StSWAC2233.036.3-2.41207
222W IllinoisBSOV2235.823.3-2.51200
223Abilene ChrUAC1318.029.8-2.63168
224VillanovaPAT2220.531.5-2.63184
225Ark Pine BluffSWAC2235.339.3-2.69176
226LindenwoodBSOV1222.033.7-2.69232
227E KentuckyUAC1316.032.0-2.78231
228E WashingtonSKY1325.036.8-2.84171
229E Tenn StSoCon2230.831.3-2.87161
230BethuneSWAC2137.031.3-2.88126
231GeorgetownPAT0217.534.5-3.01264
232LafayettePAT1218.035.0-3.02213
233Sacred HeartCAA0318.330.7-3.05236
234N IowaMFC1226.734.3-3.09160
235MS ValleySWAC1311.834.3-3.12216
236TX SouthernSWAC1222.044.3-3.20205
237MerrimackFCSIND1314.333.8-3.35203
238E IllinoisBSOV1320.841.0-3.47192
239MaineCAA1313.529.5-3.57155
240SouthernSWAC2226.838.3-3.58165
241Prairie ViewSWAC1323.834.5-3.62212
242TN StBSOV1314.836.3-3.66196
243FordhamPAT1318.333.5-3.70166
244GramblingSWAC2134.732.0-3.95143
245Norfolk StMEAC2227.827.8-3.97255
246Nwestern StSLAN0419.352.3-4.01246
247Florida A&MSWAC1316.536.0-4.06167
248IdahoSKY0426.042.0-4.06208
249HowardMEAC1217.335.7-4.16174
250NC A&TCAA0413.337.0-4.19235
251NichollsSLAN2219.542.0-4.39147
252UT MartinBSOV1323.535.0-4.59156
253C ConnecticutNEC0320.052.3-4.60219
254New HampshireCAA1316.540.0-4.71214
255VMISoCon0410.038.0-4.98226
256Holy CrossPAT0413.838.3-5.06241
257HamptonCAA1317.333.8-5.21175
258MercyhurstNEC1320.046.0-5.48197
259Long IslandNEC0414.037.0-5.49228
260Murray StMFC1313.835.8-5.64164
261West GeorgiaUAC0411.039.5-6.25223
262TowsonCAA0417.037.3-6.37177
263Utah TechSKY0411.046.8-6.43184
264WagnerNEC1312.042.8-6.82138
265DuquesneNEC036.750.7-7.40159
266Portland StSKY0416.853.8-7.69154

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That’s it for today. Tune in Thursday for the beginning of Week 4. Thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others. We value all of our readers and want to provide good content for you. Have a great week as we continue to code for basketball season, JoJo and G.

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