G’s Expectation or The Season is Heating Up

Welcome back, sports fans, to episode 692 or the 124 games (434 or so hours) of college football today. Before we get to that, we had three games yesterday. Miami FL (3-0/1) beat Wake Forest (2-1/29) in an ACC showdown, 33-20. While 13 points is an impressive victory, Vegas had the line at 20.5 (the GCR had WF to cover). The Big 12 countered with a matchup featuring Houston (2-1/10) at Texas Tech (3-0/17) that TXTC held on to win 28-26. The line was TXTC-7.5 and the GCR had HOU to cover. The final game continued a trend that is less about sportsmanship and more about trying to impress pollsters. Oregon (2-1/78) humiliated a traditionally bad FCS team, Portland St (0-3/265) 84-0. If they had scored 84 in the first three quarters, ok, but their final TD came with 29 ticks on the clock after a 13-play, 76-yard, 5:16 drive while up 77-0. Whatever happened to taking a knee to let the clock run out? In sports, someone gets to win and someone has to go home disappointed, but this is the fourth time 80 points were dropped on an opponent with the final score coming in the last couple of minutes in a game. We get that Oregon, who began the season in the AP #2 spot (reason number 857 that preseason polls are useless), and we get that they think that big number may impress those who vote in those polls. That last score, we can only hope, hurt the Ducks in the polls for bad mojo more than helped them. At any rate, so far, the GCR is 4-0 is picking the winner and 4-0 when picking which team will cover the spread.

…..

One piece of the inner workings of the GCR that we didn’t go into a lot of detail on the other day, is the point differential bonus/penalty. The theory is that a 10-point win is stronger than a 3-point win. While we aren’t 100% sure of that, we do use differential to differentiate between teams that would otherwise be tied without it. The GCR abhors ties, so that’s what we came up with. The logic we use is that the first point of victory (for example 31-30) is the most important because that point determines the outcome of the game. Each point following provides a diminishing return until, somewhere around 21 points (31-10), the change is almost non-existent. It rewards teams for being dominant without rewarding teams for running up the score. That said, in Oregon’s case, that final TD added about 0.001 to the raw performance value (which was then discounted even more for the FCS opponent). We are not picking on Oregon alone. James Madison (87-3 over FCS Wagner), SC St (87-0 over non-division I Savannah St), and LA Tech (80-6 over FCS Northwestern St) are guilty as well – and we are just in Week 3.

…..

That said, we have a full slate on tap today with the first game at 11:30 (all times Eastern) when Coastal (1-1/82) travels to Delaware (1-1/85) and the final games kicking off at 11:00 (Purdue at UCLA, Montana at Oregon St, and Fresno St at San Jose St). We have the Ivy League jumping in the fray – they play 10-game seasons with no bye weeks, ending on FCS rivalry week, so they start later than everyone else. We have three matchups between undefeated teams in the SEC alone (LSU at MISS, MSST at SCAR, and FLA at AUB). We have 3 neutral site games (AZST/KAN, MIAO/CIN, and WVU/VIR). We have coaches in trouble intrigue with North Carolina at Clemson. It’s a full slate with good games to watch in any time slot. Here are all the games and how to watch them. As a reminder, the GCR predictions are for entertainment purposes only and we do not encourage gambling on college sports. If you choose to do so, please do so at reputable sites only and risk only what you can afford to lose.

Time (ET)Games of September 19thConferenceVegasGCRCoverTV
11:30AMCoastal (1-1/82) at Delaware (1-1/85)SUN/USADEL -4.5CCARCCARCBS Sports
12:00Mercer (2-1/152) at Georgia Tech
(0-2/120)
SoCon/ACCGT -38.5GTMERCACC Network
12:00Tulane (1-1/89) at Kansas St (2-0/38)AAC/B12KSST -20.5KSSTKSSTESPN2
12:00North Texas (1-1/80) at Texas St (0-2/148)AAC/PACTXST -2.5NTEXNTEXUSA
12:00Arizona St (1-1/70) / Kansas (1-1/95) (N)B12AZST -5.5AZSTKANFox Sports 1
12:00Georgia (2-0/34) at Arkansas (1-1/75)SECGEO -25.5GEOGEOABC
12:00Buffalo (1-1/132) at Penn St (2-0/11)MAC/B10PSU -40.5PSUPSUBig Ten Network
12:00Bowling Green (0-2/150) at Iowa St
(1-1/52)
MAC/B12IAST -23.5IASTIASTESPNU
12:00Kent St (1-1/111) at Ohio St (1-1/21)MAC/B10OHST -51.5OHSTKTSTFox
12:00North Carolina (2-0/40) at Clemson
(1-1/61)
ACCCLEM -3.5NCARNCARESPN
12:00Akron (1-1/94) at Minnesota (1-1/102)MAC/B10MINN -23.5MINNAKRBig Ten Network
12:00Brown (0-0/174) at New Haven (1-2/210)IVY/NECBRO -10.5NEC Front Row
12:00Dartmouth (0-0/174) at Lehigh (3-0/90)IVY/PATNLESPN+
12:00Lafayette (1-1/239) at Columbia (0-0/174)PAT/IVYCOLA -2.5COLACOLAESPN+
12:00West Georgia (0-3/266) at E Tenn St
(1-2/241)
UAC/SoConETSU -15.0ETSUWGAESPN+
12:00Villanova (1-2/242) at Long Island
(0-3/261)
PAT/NECVILL -20.5VILLLIUNEC Front Row
12:30E Michigan (1-2/119) at Wisconsin
(1-1/84)
MAC/B10WIS -23.5WISEMIPeacock
12:45NC St (1-1/81) at Vanderbilt (2-0/45)ACC/SECVAN -3.5VANVANSEC Network
1:00Wyoming (1-1/121) at C Michigan
(1-1/124)
MWC/MACCMI -1.5WYOWYOESPN+
1:00Princeton (0-0/174) at Bryant (2-1/165)IVY/CAAPRIN -2.5FloFootball
1:00Glenville St (N/A) at Mercyhurst (0-3/264)NA/NECNLNEC Front Row
1:00Valparaiso (1-1/182) at Indiana St
(1-2/219)
PFL/MFCINST -22.5VALVALESPN+
1:00Harvard (0-0/174) at New Hampshire
(1-2/246)
IVY/CAAHARV -16.0ESPN+
1:00Cornell (0-0/174) at Colgate (2-1/147)IVY/PATCOLG -11.0ESPN+
1:00Chicago St (1-2/193) at Butler (2-1/184)FCSIND/PFLNLBUTESPN+
1:00VMI (0-3/257) at Davidson (1-2/205)SoCon/PFLVMI -3.5DAVDAVESPN+
2:00Maine (1-2/230) at Boston College
(1-1/65)
CAA/ACCBC -37.5BCMAINACC Extra
2:00S Illinois (2-1/155) at Illinois (1-1/62)MFC/B10ILL -38.5ILLSILLPeacock
2:00S Utah (1-2/213) at St Thomas (2-1/191)SKY/PFLSUT -14.0STTHSTTHMidco Sports+
2:00Yale (0-0/174) at Holy Cross (0-3/254)IVY/PATYALE -20.5ESPN+
2:30Rhode Island (2-1/158) at Stony Brook
(1-2/211)
CAARISL -11.0RISLSBFloFootball
2:30Presbyterian (1-1/199) at W Carolina
(1-2/222)
PFL/SoConWCAR -33.5PCPCESPN+
3:00Temple (1-1/134) at Toledo (1-1/86)AAC/MACTOL -5.5TOLTOLCBS Sports
3:00Penn (0-0/174) at Bucknell (1-2/167)IVY/PATPENN -3.5ESPN+
3:00E Illinois (1-2/233) at Illinois St (3-0/122)BSOV/MFCILST -29.0ILSTEILLESPN+
3:00C Connecticut (0-2/259) at Montana St
(3-0/56)
NEC/SKYNLMTSTESPN+
3:30Utah St (0-2/126) at Utah (2-0/18)PAC/B12UTAH -27.5UTAHUTAHFox
3:30Miami OH (1-1/64) / Cincinnati (2-0/24) (N)MAC/B12CIN -15.5CINCINESPN+
3:30UTEP (1-1/136) at Michigan (2-0/42)MWC/B10MICH -34.5MICHMICHBig Ten Network
3:30Kentucky (1-1/104) at Texas A&M (2-0/8)SECTAM -17.5TAMTAMESPN
3:30Wagner (1-2/248) at California (1-1/87)NEC/ACCCAL -57.5CALWAGACC Network
3:30Stonehill (1-2/173) at UMASS (2-0/39)NEC/MACUMAS -31.5UMASUMASESPN+
3:30SMU (2-0/36) at Louisville (1-1/67)ACCLOU -1.5SMUSMUESPN2
3:30Duquesne (0-2/256) at Washington St
(0-2/128)
NEC/PACWAST -38.5WASTDUQUSA
3:30Southern Cal (3-0/9) at Rutgers (0-2/141)B10SCAL -21.5SCALSCALCBS
3:30Florida St (1-1/60) at Alabama (2-0/2)ACC/SECALA -18.5ALAALAABC
3:30Georgetown (0-1/253) at Richmond
(2-1/212)
PATRICH -14.0RICHGTOWESPN+
3:30Monmouth (1-2/223) at Albany (2-1/143)CAANLALBFloFootball
4:00N Iowa (1-1/154) at Iowa (2-0/28)MFC/B10IOWA -38.5IOWAIOWAFox Sports 1
4:00Ball St (1-1/138) at Liberty (1-1/110)MAC/USALIB -14.5LIBBLSTESPN+
4:00W Kentucky (0-2/160) at Indiana (2-0/30)USA/B10IND -44.5INDINDPeacock
4:00Stanford (1-1/69) at Duke (2-0/20)ACCDUKE -9.5DUKEDUKEThe CW
4:00LA Tech (1-1/99) at Baylor (1-1/63)SUN/B12BAY -20.5BAYLATCESPNU
4:00Abilene Chr (0-3/169) at Idaho (0-3/250)UAC/SKYABCH -1.0ABCHABCHESPN+
4:00Lynchburg (N/A) at Bethune (1-1/249)NA/SWACNLSWAC TV
4:00Hampton (1-2/255) at Norfolk St (1-2/258)CAA/MEACNFST -9.5HAMPHAMPMEAC Network
4:15Mississippi St (2-0/3) at South Carolina
(2-0/27)
SECSCAR -3.5MSSTMSSTSEC Network
4:30SELA (1-2/217) at ULM (0-2/151)SLAN/SUNULM -11.5SELASELAESPN+
5:00Central St (N/A) at Ark Pine Bluff
(1-2/232)
NA/SWACNLSWAC TV
6:00FIU (1-1/88) at FAU (1-1/96)USA/AACFAU -6.5FIUFIUESPN+
6:00Charlotte (0-2/146) at App St (2-0/73)AAC/SUNAPST -17.5APSTAPSTESPN+
6:00East Carolina (0-2/139) at Old Dominion (1-1/97)AAC/SUNOD -2.5ODODESPN+
6:00Point (N/A) at Chrls So (1-2/208)NA/BSOVNLESPN+
6:00NC A&T (0-3/245) at Campbell (2-1/202)CAACAMP -21.5CAMPNCATFloFootball
6:00Dayton (2-0/162) at E Kentucky (1-2/229)PFL/UACEKY -11.0DAYDAYESPN+
6:00Sacred Heart (0-2/240) at Elon (2-1/153)CAAELON -13.5ELONSHFloFootball
6:00Fordham (0-3/260) at William & Mary
(2-1/163)
PATW&M -18.5W&MFORDESPN+
6:00NC Central (2-1/166) at Gardner Webb
(0-3/196)
MEAC/BSOVGWEB -7.0NCCNCCESPN+
6:00Wofford (2-1/186) at Chattanooga
(1-2/171)
SoConCHAT -0.5CHATCHATESPN+
6:00Morgan St (2-1/224) at Towson (0-3/262)MEAC/CAATOW -10.5MORGMORGFloFootball
6:30Marshall (1-1/112) at Missouri St (1-1/109)SUN/USAMARS -3.5MOSTMOSTCBS Sports
7:00Ga Southern (1-1/127) at Jax St (1-2/105)SUN/USAJXST -3.5GASOGASOESPN+
7:00UCONN (1-1/137) at Southern Miss
(1-1/98)
IND/SUNUCON -3.5SMISSMISESPN+
7:00Florida (2-0/23) at Auburn (2-0/25)SECFLA -1.5FLAAUBESPN
7:00W Michigan (1-1/77) at Rice (1-1/106)MAC/AACWMI -9.5WMIRICEESPN+
7:00Murray St (1-2/221) at Oklahoma St
(1-1/41)
MFC/B12OKST -56.5OKSTMURRESPN+
7:00Ohio (1-1/103) at South Alabama (1-1/118)MAC/SUNSALA -6.5SALASALAESPN+
7:00Delaware St (2-1/161) at South Florida
(2-0/55)
MEAC/AACSFLA -37.5SFLADESTESPN+
7:00UT Martin (1-2/228) at Memphis (2-1/83)BSOV/AACMEM -34.5MEMUTMESPN+
7:00Nicholls (2-1/209) at Sam Houston
(0-2/135)
SLAN/USASHOU -18.5SHOUNICHESPN+
7:00Georgia St (2-0/46) at UCF (1-1/4)SUN/B12UCF -17.5GASTGASTESPN+
7:00Nevada (1-1/91) at Mid Tenn (1-1/114)MWC/USANEV -3.5NEVMTSUESPN+
7:00Troy (2-0/79) at Missouri (2-0/13)SUN/SECMIZZ -26.5MIZZMIZZSEC+
7:00Houston Chr (2-1/200) at Incarnate Word (1-1/187)SLANIW -14.0IWHOCHESPN+
7:00Bowie St (N/A) at Alabama A&M
(2-1/156)
NA/SWACNLSWAC TV
7:00Merrimack (1-2/231) at Tarleton (3-0/116)FCSIND/UACTAR -33.0TARMERRESPN+
7:00C Arkansas (2-1/183) at SEMO (1-2/234)UAC/BSOVSEMO -3.0CARKCARKESPN+
7:00Delta St (N/A) at MS Valley (1-2/237)NA/SWACNLSWAC TV
7:00Louisiana College (N/A) at Southern
(1-2/247)
NA/SWACNLSWAC TV
7:00SC St (3-0/149) at Furman (2-1/218)MEAC/SoConSCST -9.5SCSTFURESPN+
7:00Youngstown St (2-1/190) at South Dakota St (2-1/159)MFCSDKS -9.5SDKSYSTMidco Sports
7:00TN St (0-3/252) at Florida A&M (1-2/238)BSOV/SWACFLAM -3.5FLAMFLAMHBCUGo
7:00Morehead St (1-2/195) at W Illinois
(1-2/251)
PFL/BSOVWILL -20.5MHSTMHSTESPN+
7:00Austin Peay (2-1/164) at West Florida
(2-0/125)
UACNLESPN+
7:00Tuskegee (N/A) at Jackson St (2-0/157)NA/SWACNLJASTSWAC TV
7:00Alcorn St (2-1/215) at North Alabama
(1-2/203)
SWAC/UACNALA -14.0NALAACSTESPN+
7:15E Washington (1-2/172) at Washington
(2-0/53)
SKY/B10WASH -42.5WASHWASHBig Ten Network
7:15North Dakota (3-0/100) at Nebraska
(2-0/15)
MFC/B10NEB -25.5NEBNEBBig Ten Network
7:30Colorado (2-0/59) at Northwestern (1-0/71)B12/B10NW -3.5COLCOLFox Sports 1
7:30New Mexico (2-0/47) at Oklahoma
(1-1/32)
MWC/SECOKLA -21.5OKLANMEXESPN2
7:30Virginia Tech (2-0/37) at Maryland
(2-0/19)
ACC/B10VT -2.5MARYMARYFox Sports 1
7:30Michigan St (2-0/22) at Notre Dame
(2-0/5)
B10/INDND -29.5NDMISTNBC/Peacock
7:30West Virginia (2-0/48) / Virginia (2-0/14) (N)B12/ACCVIR -10.5VIRWVUACC Network
7:30BYU (2-0/35) at Colorado St (2-0/51)B12/PACBYU -17.5BYUCOSTCBS/Paramount
7:30LSU (2-0/7) at Mississippi (2-0/26)SECLSU -3.5LSULSUABC
7:45Kennesaw St (1-1/131) at Tennessee
(2-0/16)
USA/SECTENN -35.5TENNTENNSEC Network
8:00UTSA (2-0/72) at Texas (2-0/33)AAC/SECTEX -29.5TEXUTSASEC+
8:00Arkansas St (1-1/108) at TCU (1-1/68)SUN/B12TCU -18.5TCUARSTESPNU
8:00UAB (1-1/133) at Louisiana (1-1/49)AAC/SUNLAU -7.5UABUABESPN+
8:00East Texas (1-2/168) at Tulsa (2-0/43)SLAN/AACTULS -41.5TULSETEXESPN+
8:00Nwestern St (0-3/244) at Weber St
(1-2/227)
SLAN/SKYWEB -34.5WEBNWSTESPN+
8:00NE St (N/A) at N Colorado (0-3/216)NA/SKYNLESPN+
8:00San Diego (0-2/243) at Cal Poly (2-1/188)PFL/SKYCP -20.5CPSDIEESPN+
8:00N Arizona (2-1/207) at Utah Tech
(0-3/263)
SKYNAZ -19.5NAZUTTCESPN+
8:00McNeese (1-2/197) at Rio Grande
(1-2/214)
SLANRG -5.5MCNMCNESPN+
8:00Steph F Austin (3-0/107) at Prairie View (1-2/226)SLAN/SWACSFA -15.5SFAPVSWAC TV
10:00South Dakota (3-0/115) at Boise St
(1-1/58)
MFC/PACBOIS -26.5BOISSDAKCBS Sports
10:00James Madison (2-0/66) at San Diego St (1-1/93)SUN/PACSDST -1.5JMUJMUThe CW
10:00Stetson (1-2/201) at UC Davis (2-1/192)PFL/SKYNLUCDESPN+
10:30North Dakota St (3-0/44) at Sacramento St (1-2/144)MWC/MACNDST -26.5NDSTSACESPN
10:30N Illinois (0-2/145) at Arizona (1-1/57)MWC/B12ARIZ -34.5ARIZNILLTNT/HBO Max
11:00Montana (3-0/130) at Oregon St (0-2/113)SKY/PACORST -16.5MONTMONTUSA
11:00Purdue (1-1/74) at UCLA (2-0/6)B10UCLA -14.5UCLAUCLABig Ten Network
11:00Fresno St (1-1/31) at San Jose St (2-1/50)PAC/MWCFRST -6.5SJSTSJSTFox Sports 1

…..

That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for the new Top 266 after the wins, blowouts, heart-wrenching, gut-checks, and fun of today’s games. Thank you for reading, providing suggestions, and sharing with others. Until tomorrow, JoJo and G.

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