G’s Evaluation or The Top 266 for Week 1

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 684 which is our first full-scale Top 266 of the season. There are still 8 teams who have not played a game (the Ivy League will begin play on September 19th) who are ranked 172nd. Most football games that experience natural delays, as opposed to injury, have lightning to blame. In Tallahassee last night, the SMU/Florida St game was delayed by a human-based electrical problem for almost two hours. The cause was a short in the system which did not impact last week’s game vs New Mexico St. When the game started, the official time was kept on the field, and the players hit the turf with less than the usual noon-at-the-beach glare. While FSU never led, they were never more than a TD behind, forcing ties at 7-7, 17-17, and 24-24 before SMU took the lead for good with just 25 seconds on the now-working clock. Final score 27-24.

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We published our first Top 266 a week ago, but most teams had yet to play a game. This is the first (nearly) complete ranking. Spoiler alert: we do not come close to “matching” the AP or Coaches polls coming out later today. Because they use preseason polls, adjustments are made subjectively starting with “last week’s poll”. Almost every year, a preseason Top 25 team will lose their first game and remain ranked at 0-1! History and perception matter. Because we don’t have preconceived notions, the GCR uses our algorithms, objectively, to rank every team. For example, UMASS, who had the longest losing streak (at 16) prior to upsetting Rutgers is at #6. They may end up 1-11 based on their history. If that happens, the GCR will lower them to the rank they deserve, but right now, after one game, they are a top-tier team. History and perception don’t matter. For the GCR there is no future meaning that strength of schedule (SOS) is based solely on games played. A team may have an impossible schedule: 11 Core 4 opponents, all with 8+ wins by season’s end with an FCS opponent in week 1. After that first game, that team would only get “credit” for that FCS opponent in SOS. The GCR also has no past meaning that every game happens “now”. Let’s use UMASS as an example. Rutgers lost to a Group of 6 team that is 1-0 ranked #6 at home. They currently have an SOS ranked 40th. In the scenario of a UMASS team that doesn’t win again this season, they would get “credit” for a home loss to a Group of 6 1-11 team ranked much lower than #6 negatively impacting their SOS. Another way to say it is in the preseason ranking world, (AP 9) Mississippi (1-0/54) beat (AP 24) Louisville (0-1/102) in week 1. If Louisville fails to win a game this season, every broadcast of a Mississippi game will post their schedule and (24) will appear next to Louisville because they were ranked at the time. The GCR doesn’t care about how a team was ranked at the time of the game because all games happen simultaneously in the algorithm.

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We hope that makes sense. Let us know your thoughts or questions about our approach. With no further ado, here are the Top 266 from Miami FL to Bethune.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScore
1Miami FLACC1045.06.013.66
2UCLAB101045.024.010.66
3Notre DameND1041.013.010.48
4VirginiaACC1034.08.010.34
5LSUSEC1051.010.010.13
6UMASSMAC1037.021.010.08
7Southern CalB102040.513.09.60
8South CarolinaSEC1057.00.09.32
9Ohio StB101056.03.09.28
10TexasSEC1059.07.09.26
11OklahomaSEC1051.00.09.25
12Texas A&MSEC1050.00.09.24
13Mississippi StSEC1062.013.09.23
14FloridaSEC1066.021.09.16
14Penn StB101045.00.09.16
14PittsburghACC1059.014.09.16
17IowaB101040.00.09.06
18AlabamaSEC1048.010.09.02
19CincinnatiB121034.015.08.97
20IndianaB101052.016.08.96
21SMUACC1027.024.08.73
22NebraskaB101049.021.08.69
23NevadaMWC1049.014.08.68
24New MexicoMWC1038.07.08.51
25Wake ForestACC1038.016.08.40
26IllinoisB101042.023.08.21
27MemphisAAC2034.522.58.14
28TulsaAAC1024.010.08.04
29North Dakota StMWC2035.53.57.98
30Colorado StPAC1035.013.07.96
31DukeACC1017.03.07.83
31WashingtonB101024.010.07.83
33HoustonB121033.020.07.75
34Michigan StB101030.020.07.45
35North CarolinaACC1015.010.07.43
36Idaho StSKY2033.513.57.34
37Kansas StB121071.03.07.24
38Arizona StB121070.07.07.23
39MarylandB101062.00.07.22
40MinnesotaB101059.07.07.20
41TennesseeSEC1056.09.07.16
42MissouriSEC1054.014.07.12
43OregonB101034.027.07.11
43West VirginiaB121031.024.07.11
45UCFB121073.06.07.09
46KentuckySEC1045.013.07.06
47Virginia TechACC1073.03.07.02
48Iowa StB121038.010.07.01
49ArizonaB121035.07.07.01
50SyracuseACC1066.03.07.01
51GeorgiaSEC1063.03.07.00
52BYUB121063.07.06.98
53UtahB121066.014.06.97
54MississippiSEC1041.038.06.95
55KansasB121051.06.06.94
56VanderbiltSEC1028.09.06.85
57ArkansasSEC1031.014.06.80
58NorthwesternB101034.018.06.78
59PurdueB101044.019.06.73
60South FloridaAAC1019.09.06.71
61Texas TechB121033.010.06.70
62ColoradoB121014.013.06.49
63AuburnSEC1017.016.06.42
64ArmyAAC1059.03.06.35
65App StSUN1055.03.06.33
66Southern MissSUN1049.03.06.28
67James MadisonSUN1020.013.06.26
68MichiganB101013.012.06.25
69LA TechSUN1080.06.06.22
70UCONNIND1056.07.06.18
71Georgia StSUN1059.010.06.14
72Kennesaw StUSA1047.00.06.12
73LouisianaSUN1038.07.06.12
74UTSAAAC1045.016.06.08
75Florida StACC1129.022.06.08
76RiceAAC1031.03.06.07
77Air ForceMWC1034.00.06.04
78DelawareUSA1042.07.06.01
79TempleAAC1038.014.05.99
80San Diego StPAC1053.020.05.98
81San Jose StMWC1126.531.55.97
82LehighPAT2040.012.05.97
83Ga SouthernSUN1031.00.05.95
84Old DominionSUN1031.010.05.90
85NavyAAC1042.015.05.88
86South AlabamaSUN1039.014.05.84
87Mid TennUSA1038.014.05.82
88Montana StSKY2052.512.05.69
89TroySUN1024.021.05.53
90UNLVMWC1121.016.55.46
91TarletonUAC2034.521.55.42
92BuffaloMAC1021.017.05.19
93UC DavisSKY2040.020.54.56
94South DakotaMFC2048.521.54.56
95BaylorB120116.017.04.38
96Jax StUSA1128.020.04.32
97TN TechSoCon2031.011.54.26
98Steph F AustinSLAN2041.017.04.19
99North DakotaMFC2052.023.54.18
100E MichiganMAC1124.522.04.15
101Georgia TechACC0113.014.04.08
102LouisvilleACC0138.041.04.01
103Sacramento StMAC1134.514.03.86
104ColgatePAT2029.512.03.77
105West FloridaUAC2038.022.53.74
106ElonCAA2040.03.53.73
107MercerSoCon2042.59.03.69
108TCUB120110.015.03.68
109W MichiganMAC0112.013.03.56
110New Mexico StUSA1134.024.03.46
111Illinois StMFC2058.55.03.45
112MontanaSKY2036.515.53.34
113RichmondPAT2031.517.53.31
114CampbellCAA2038.528.03.22
115Fresno StPAC010.039.03.11
116Robert MorrisNEC2028.58.03.07
117Arkansas StSUN0124.042.03.03
118Oklahoma StB120110.024.02.95
119StanfordACC1121.536.02.93
120WoffordSoCon2029.513.52.92
121Boston CollegeACC0115.034.02.82
122Sam HoustonUSA0121.024.02.80
123SC StMEAC2059.06.52.55
124Boise StPAC0127.034.02.42
124CoastalSUN0124.031.02.42
126LibertyUSA0113.020.02.26
127CharlotteAAC0141.043.02.23
128Alabama StSWAC2032.08.52.20
129Bowling GreenMAC0113.020.02.03
130William & MaryPAT2028.523.51.98
131ToledoMAC0120.030.01.96
132ClemsonACC0110.051.01.95
133FIUUSA019.019.01.92
134Utah StPAC0117.029.01.67
135NC StACC018.034.01.64
136Oregon StPAC0120.033.01.57
137WisconsinB100113.041.01.54
138W CarolinaSoCon1132.024.51.50
139TulaneAAC013.017.01.46
139Washington StPAC0110.024.01.46
141Prairie ViewSWAC1141.031.51.44
142Cal PolySKY2031.025.51.16
143Jackson StSWAC2046.019.01.14
144RutgersB100121.037.01.10
145WyomingMWC0113.035.00.97
146UABAAC0123.042.00.95
147S IllinoisMFC1126.526.00.93
148E WashingtonSKY1130.529.00.86
149GramblingSWAC2048.516.50.82
150ValparaisoPFL1059.013.00.77
151UT MartinBSOV1133.021.50.75
152AlbanyCAA1122.517.50.75
153DaytonPFL1043.020.00.73
154Delaware StMEAC1128.028.00.72
155AkronMAC0116.038.00.71
156C MichiganMAC017.038.00.56
157Incarnate WordSLAN1076.014.00.55
158S UtahSKY1134.035.00.54
159Morehead StPFL1157.533.00.52
160StonehillNEC1113.513.50.48
161LindenwoodBSOV1126.026.50.47
162W KentuckyUSA0114.049.00.44
163ChattanoogaSoCon1116.517.00.41
164Stony BrookCAA1135.036.50.40
165MaristPFL1124.020.00.38
166CitadelSoCon1128.541.50.37
167HowardMEAC1126.026.00.34
168OhioMAC0121.049.00.32
169Weber StSKY1136.038.00.27
170VillanovaPAT1124.525.50.17
171TX SouthernSWAC1128.041.00.07
172BrownIVY000.00.00.00
172ColumbiaIVY000.00.00.00
172CornellIVY000.00.00.00
172DartmouthIVY000.00.00.00
172HarvardIVY000.00.00.00
172PennIVY000.00.00.00
172PrincetonIVY000.00.00.00
172YaleIVY000.00.00.00
180MonmouthCAA1122.531.00.00
181North TexasAAC0116.052.0-0.05
182CaliforniaACC0124.045.0-0.09
183East CarolinaAAC0110.048.0-0.12
184Alabama A&MSWAC1131.027.0-0.12
185N IllinoisMWC010.040.0-0.18
186HawaiiMWC0216.529.0-0.20
187NC CentralMEAC1128.524.0-0.29
188FAUAAC0121.066.0-0.31
188MarshallSUN010.045.0-0.31
188Miami OHMAC0114.059.0-0.31
191ULMSUN0113.062.0-0.40
192Missouri StUSA010.050.0-0.42
193UTEPMWC010.051.0-0.43
194SouthernSWAC1125.522.5-0.44
195Texas StPAC017.059.0-0.45
196Ball StMAC013.056.0-0.47
197C ArkansasUAC1125.033.0-0.51
198Rhode IslandCAA1124.022.5-0.52
199Kent StMAC010.057.0-0.52
200Florida A&MSWAC1116.519.0-0.68
201Sacred HeartCAA0124.031.0-0.76
202ButlerPFL1125.537.0-0.77
203St ThomasPFL1120.535.5-0.92
204McNeeseSLAN1139.519.0-0.94
205South Dakota StMFC1144.020.5-1.03
206E Tenn StSoCon1142.531.5-1.05
207BucknellPAT0215.026.0-1.08
208Gardner WebbBSOV0215.026.0-1.10
209N IowaMFC0124.034.0-1.10
210StetsonPFL1126.040.0-1.13
211DrakePFL0222.541.5-1.18
212PresbyterianPFL1125.049.5-1.32
213SamfordSoCon0214.022.0-1.40
214Chicago StFCSIND0217.543.0-1.41
215New HavenNEC1112.521.0-1.50
216East TexasSLAN0211.033.5-1.72
217WagnerNEC1119.017.5-1.75
218N ColoradoSKY0226.034.0-1.84
219North AlabamaUAC1118.020.5-2.08
220W IllinoisBSOV1137.527.5-2.19
221BryantCAA1113.532.5-2.20
222Austin PeayUAC1122.022.5-2.30
223Houston ChrSLAN1118.529.5-2.45
224C ConnecticutNEC0120.059.0-2.58
225DavidsonPFL0217.539.5-2.75
226Norfolk StMEAC1133.015.5-2.79
227LamarSLAN1114.026.0-2.87
228Youngstown StMFC1128.027.5-3.07
229Rio GrandeSLAN1130.022.5-3.38
230Holy CrossPAT0210.035.0-3.45
231MaineCAA1112.036.5-3.74
232N ArizonaSKY1120.531.0-3.91
233E IllinoisBSOV1117.536.5-4.01
234Alcorn StSWAC1129.528.0-4.06
235Chrls SoBSOV028.525.5-4.07
236TowsonCAA0216.531.5-4.10
237NichollsSLAN1123.540.5-4.16
238Abilene ChrUAC0212.027.0-4.18
239SEMOBSOV1116.529.5-4.27
240SELASLAN0221.036.5-4.38
241Morgan StMEAC1112.038.5-4.59
242Nwestern StSLAN0221.561.0-4.77
243Portland StSKY0222.042.0-4.97
244Indiana StMFC0220.033.5-4.99
245Murray StMFC0214.033.0-5.15
246GeorgetownPAT0114.045.0-5.16
247FordhamPAT027.031.0-5.19
248San DiegoPFL0117.049.0-5.23
249Ark Pine BluffSWAC1124.534.5-5.33
250E KentuckyUAC0214.047.0-5.51
251MercyhurstNEC0212.047.0-5.52
252FurmanSoCon1114.529.5-5.61
253NC A&TCAA028.538.0-5.86
254HamptonCAA1122.531.0-5.91
255MS ValleySWAC025.048.0-5.95
256West GeorgiaUAC025.035.5-6.19
257IdahoSKY0224.052.0-6.31
258TN StBSOV0213.544.5-6.53
259MerrimackFCSIND027.038.0-6.61
260Long IslandNEC0213.546.5-6.91
261New HampshireCAA028.547.0-7.13
262VMISoCon026.555.5-7.58
263DuquesneNEC010.034.0-8.06
264LafayettePAT017.056.0-9.02
265Utah TechSKY023.558.5-9.33
266BethuneSWAC016.073.0-12.72

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That’s it for today. Tune in Thursday, September 10th, for our next Expectation featuring predictions for every game between two Division I teams. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others. We really do value your feedback which we use to improve what we do, JoJo and G.

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