G’s Evaluation or Who Survived Halloween?

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 728, our second one today (check out opening day basketball posted earlier). Just yesterday, SMU (6-2/32) dropped a game in Syracuse (4-4/74), Coastal (2-4/118) beat Georgia St (4-4/97), Air Force (6-2/66) shot down UCONN (4-4/92), Oklahoma (4-4/53) could do little right against South Carolina (5-3/29), Ohio St (6-2/5) was starstruck by Southern Cal (7-2/22), Iowa St (4-4/50) tornadoed Oklahoma St (5-3/34), Fresno St (5-3/59) beat Oregon St (5-3/61), Washington (5-3/45) husked Nebraska (5-3/35), and Clemson (5-3/43) outlasted Florida St (3-5/73). What do these games have in common? The losers were all Vegas favorites. This list does not include Miami FL (8-0/1) beating North Carolina (4-4/46) by a single score or Indiana (8-1/8) going to overtime to beat Minnesota (5-3/47) in a game that had two (yes, two) 60-yard field goals within 22 seconds to force the extra time. It was Halloween yesterday. The scares and pain were real.

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The GCR prediction algorithm had a mixed week with just picking the winner looking pretty good (best overall week of the season), but the Vegas spreads are still giving the formulae fits (another losing week). The breakdown is below. In the table, C4 means Core 4 teams (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, Notre Dame), G6 means Group of 6 teams (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Pac 12, Sun Belt, and UCONN), and FCS means non-FBS teams. The top row in each grid is the record for that week and category Straight Up (or picking the winning team) with the bottom row being Against the Spread (taking into consideration the Vegas points for each game). Our goals are 750 SU (compared to 675 now, which puts us 38 games off pace) and 575 ATS (compared to 526 now, which puts us 40.8 games off pace). When there is a difference in number of games SU/ATS, we predict the winner of all games between D1 teams (FBS and FCS) even if Vegas does not have odds at the time we print.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (000)
0-2 (000)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643) 14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941) 11-6 (647)8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938)
10-6 (625)
14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709) 56-60 (483)
313-7 (650) 10-10 (500)18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712) 53-53 (500)
413-10 (565) 17-6 (739)7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762)
13-8 (619)
8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726) 74-39 (655)
517-10 (630) 16-11 (593)2-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
1-0 (1000)
0-1 (000)
19-7 (731)
18-8 (692)
2-0 (1000)
2-0 (1000)
33-20 (623)
28-20 (583)
74-37 (667) 66-41 (617)
617-9 (654) 14-12 (538)1-1 (500)
0-2 (000)
—18-13 (581) 15-15 (500) —28-18 (609)
22-22 (500)
64-41 (610) 51-51 (500)
713-15 (464) 9-19 (321) —3-0 (1000)
0-2 (000)
22-9 (710)
16-15 (516)
—32-21 (604)
13-13 (500)
70-45 (609) 38-49 (437)
815-12 (556) 14-13 (519) — —19-9 (679)
17-12 (586)
—36-19 (655)
16-18 (471)
70-40 (636) 47-43 (522)
920-8 (714) 11-17 (393)2-0 (1000)
1-1 (500)
—19-7 (731)
12-14 (462)
—42-15 (737)
14-14 (500)
83-30 (735) 38-46 (452)
Total117-76 (606) 97-96 (503)46-5 (902) 29-23 (558)24-8 (750) 18-13 (581)136-63 (683) 109-90 (548)35-9 (795) 20-23 (465)265-139 (656) 164-149 (524)623-300 (675) 437-394 (526)

…..

We have some congratulations due to a few teams as, in no particular order, Duke, Iowa, Mississippi, Texas, Pittsburgh, Missouri, South Florida, W Michigan, LA Tech, and Air Force got their 6th win and became bowl eligible. Alas, with the good news, comes the maybe next year news as Bowling Green, ULM, Old Dominion and UTEP picked up their 7th loss, effectively eliminating them from bowl consideration. To date, 40 teams have clinched bowl consideration (out of 82 needed to fill all of them) while 10 are just ready for 2027 to start. 28 additional teams have 5 wins while 10 have 6 losses. Just for the record, only FBS schools (Core 4 and Group of 6) are eligible for bowl games as described here.

…..

With a season of upsets (plus very near upsets), there are just 3 remaining undefeated teams in the FBS: Miami FL, Utah, and UCLA. Only N Illinois has failed to win at least one game. In the FCS, we still have Steph F Austin and Tarleton without a loss, while VMI and Nwestern St are still winless. We’ve had seasons with every team winning at least one, but heading into November with just 5 undefeated teams is rare. Usually at this time of year, there are closer to 10 teams that are still perfect. This year, as of right now, there are only 10 FBS teams perfect…in their own conference! If this continues, as we have no reason to believe it won’t, both the 12-team and 24-team playoffs are going to look much different and less…elitist than previous years. With that, Miami FL held on the top spot while Murray St is still the anchor. Thank you for reading, commenting and sharing. Tune in tomorrow for a full slate of basketball games in a new Expectation. There’ll be another on Tuesday (for all 3 sports) plus a bonus Exploration in which we will deliver the October football Conference Comparison. A busy week in sports and at the GCR. Stay safe out there and we’ll see you tomorrow, JoJo and G

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1Miami FLACC8047.617.815.041100.000
2UtahB128038.915.913.60392.723
3UCLAB108033.513.413.55292.471
4Notre DameND7140.413.413.54792.441
5Ohio StB106236.615.513.241390.895
6Wake ForestACC7139.117.913.00689.684
7AlabamaSEC6238.321.312.81988.760
8IndianaB108132.412.412.491187.135
9GeorgiaSEC7141.014.912.471087.034
10LSUSEC6240.116.012.351586.397
11Texas TechB127135.621.111.981484.552
12ArizonaB126234.918.911.852283.880
13BYUB127132.418.811.751283.368
14MississippiSEC6237.124.011.75883.358
15HoustonB126236.021.011.741783.321
16TexasSEC6230.817.111.14580.296
17KentuckySEC7132.924.811.11480.127
18NorthwesternB106233.618.810.912379.126
19MissouriSEC6231.518.410.872078.941
20TennesseeSEC6232.316.310.651977.819
21IowaB106228.312.510.481876.944
22Southern CalB107232.424.210.451676.814
23LibertyUSA7133.813.510.377276.422
24OregonB105333.321.410.362476.343
25WisconsinB105323.617.110.212675.592
26DukeACC6232.014.310.042774.709
27Boise StPAC7135.923.69.985274.427
28Virginia TechACC6235.020.59.863973.797
29South CarolinaSEC5336.925.39.822573.637
30LouisvilleACC5340.427.09.823273.608
31PittsburghACC6331.919.89.803373.499
32SMUACC6235.322.39.753573.240
33New MexicoMWC7135.011.99.686672.922
34Oklahoma StB125341.127.19.663772.803
35NebraskaB105332.415.69.414571.535
36FloridaSEC5335.628.19.362171.290
37BaylorB125330.615.39.294370.953
38North Dakota StMWC7228.111.99.207370.485
39CincinnatiB125334.129.39.142970.156
40MichiganB105321.316.48.943069.144
41James MadisonSUN7239.118.98.907468.976
42MemphisAAC7237.623.68.806968.435
43ClemsonACC5323.321.68.753168.228
44UTSAAAC7133.526.08.755968.213
45WashingtonB105326.521.18.714667.987
46North CarolinaACC4425.823.08.544267.159
47MinnesotaB105325.320.58.523867.038
48Penn StB104429.018.68.244865.617
49Texas A&MSEC4428.318.98.234765.569
50Iowa StB124429.027.38.214465.454
51North TexasAAC6243.831.98.187165.337
52Mississippi StSEC4426.628.18.122865.032
53OklahomaSEC4422.020.88.083664.839
54LA TechSUN6232.620.97.946864.093
55South FloridaAAC6227.014.57.918263.945
56IllinoisB105329.024.37.884163.792
57AuburnSEC4424.126.87.863463.691
58Boston CollegeACC4421.626.57.665162.680
59Fresno StPAC5328.921.07.638062.533
60OhioMAC6229.621.97.597562.325
61Oregon StPAC5340.125.07.587762.306
62West VirginiaB125335.932.37.584062.268
63Jax StUSA6226.919.97.567862.192
64UCFB124429.825.37.544962.112
65ToledoMAC6237.425.47.517661.912
66Air ForceMWC6229.321.57.438461.520
67TCUB124423.314.17.415061.430
68LouisianaSUN5330.121.37.249160.547
69VirginiaACC4525.923.17.145660.070
70Arizona StB124429.529.57.065759.678
71UNLVMWC5325.023.87.028159.453
72W MichiganMAC6326.219.26.947959.065
73Florida StACC3530.628.96.896158.815
74SyracuseACC4431.426.46.835558.503
75PurdueB103529.532.16.815458.389
76Kansas StB124431.821.96.586357.242
77ArmyAAC5333.625.56.569057.141
78NC StACC4432.125.96.505856.827
79StanfordACC4520.337.36.495356.784
80KansasB123529.123.86.147055.025
81WyomingMWC5319.520.06.019954.326
82FAUAAC5337.835.85.979454.128
83Michigan StB102619.925.85.836753.445
84Texas StPAC4438.132.05.828553.378
85ColoradoB123521.029.45.806453.276
86Miami OHMAC5327.025.85.758953.032
87BuffaloMAC5322.625.45.719652.811
88ArkansasSEC3519.627.65.676252.607
89MarshallSUN5323.529.85.519351.815
90App StSUN5326.822.65.519751.797
91VanderbiltSEC3522.830.35.486051.648
92UCONNIND4434.425.35.4011151.262
93TulsaAAC4429.824.45.3610151.057
94Ga SouthernSUN4423.820.55.358850.995
95South AlabamaSUN4433.332.85.269550.555
96NevadaMWC3523.022.65.2111450.300
97Georgia StSUN4433.926.65.1911550.227
98UMASSMAC4426.521.15.1812350.174
99Montana StSKY8141.918.95.1514450.015
100TulaneAAC4422.525.45.058649.508
101East CarolinaAAC4424.024.15.0010349.256
102TroySUN4423.024.44.8611048.519
103UABAAC4421.625.34.8410248.455
104CaliforniaACC3621.931.64.836548.365
105DelawareUSA4429.127.54.8010548.241
106Arkansas StSUN4428.827.34.7710748.097
107Utah StPAC3516.921.94.6710047.593
108Steph F AustinSLAN9040.913.44.6015847.231
109TarletonUAC9040.322.84.5814947.130
110FIUUSA3518.920.44.4711946.547
111San Jose StMWC4519.922.34.4311346.350
112C MichiganMAC3517.925.94.4210446.322
113San Diego StPAC4526.434.34.189845.108
114MarylandB102626.931.64.149244.887
115Georgia TechACC2624.830.84.078344.548
116RutgersB102627.832.64.028744.295
117Mid TennUSA4423.929.64.0010844.193
118CoastalSUN3526.825.13.9411843.873
119E MichiganMAC4521.325.73.8811243.597
120W KentuckyUSA3521.331.13.7711643.043
121TN TechSoCon8132.221.03.3216640.740
122HarvardIVY6126.414.43.2717540.506
123Idaho StSKY6333.421.43.2418540.348
124Ball StMAC3522.035.33.2210940.240
125LehighPAT7232.119.23.2020340.128
126Missouri StUSA3524.430.93.1912040.111
127NavyAAC2627.629.93.1812140.015
128Kent StMAC3614.330.62.9711738.984
129Illinois StMFC7235.116.02.9117138.667
130Colorado StPAC3535.542.42.9010638.623
131Southern MissSUN3526.931.02.7312237.776
132South Dakota StMFC7236.416.32.6614237.423
133ChattanoogaSoCon6322.812.92.5722336.961
134HawaiiMWC2620.824.52.5412436.803
135New Mexico StUSA3521.525.32.5312536.763
136Alabama A&MSWAC7239.120.92.5320736.762
137Kennesaw StUSA2623.025.42.5113136.641
138SC StMEAC7242.016.82.4320536.248
139AlbanyCAA6328.820.92.4216236.182
140LamarSLAN7233.122.62.4115236.155
141South DakotaMFC7336.024.92.3914536.030
142Austin PeayUAC7233.918.72.3715735.946
143Bowling GreenMAC2717.829.02.3312735.729
144PrincetonIVY5220.415.12.2919435.559
145Youngstown StMFC7238.223.72.2813935.480
146DaytonPFL7133.521.82.2423135.295
147St ThomasPFL7236.724.92.0814034.495
148ButlerPFL7232.620.22.0724334.444
149TempleAAC2623.626.61.8313233.232
150CampbellCAA7233.127.11.8114333.120
151MercerSoCon7230.317.31.7816032.945
152MontanaSKY6338.228.61.7616432.878
153MonmouthCAA7231.628.21.6915532.484
154ColgatePAT5421.613.91.6418932.239
155YaleIVY4328.924.31.5924231.989
156BrownIVY4321.316.31.5623531.838
157Old DominionSUN2716.327.81.5112631.608
158North DakotaMFC6434.425.81.4914831.488
159Jackson StSWAC6235.622.01.4021731.045
160DartmouthIVY4322.620.91.3222830.606
161RiceAAC1721.031.81.2913430.463
162N ArizonaSKY7231.929.81.1514129.765
163Sam HoustonUSA1718.025.10.9213728.625
164WoffordSoCon5424.121.70.9221228.591
165CornellIVY3429.728.10.8924728.436
166ValparaisoPFL4427.021.60.8225428.126
167E Tenn StSoCon6331.622.10.8115428.075
168Incarnate WordSLAN5438.926.70.7418427.693
169AkronMAC1719.032.80.6512927.245
170Stony BrookCAA5432.730.60.6419827.209
171Weber StSKY6436.132.50.5818126.899
172Alabama StSWAC4426.019.50.5821626.882
173Abilene ChrUAC5426.022.40.5615026.807
174Gardner WebbBSOV3621.221.10.5318026.644
175C ConnecticutNEC5336.332.40.5117226.516
176Sacramento StMAC2717.030.30.4913526.410
177West FloridaUAC4324.122.00.4723326.323
178MaristPFL4526.123.70.4525926.231
179Washington StPAC1819.027.40.4112826.044
180Rhode IslandCAA5423.324.10.4021826.001
181CharlotteAAC1720.640.30.3913325.909
182North AlabamaUAC5422.821.60.2717425.345
183Ark Pine BluffSWAC5336.429.60.2615325.263
184PennIVY3418.420.90.2124925.001
185BryantCAA5419.823.90.1519024.737
186SELASLAN4525.628.10.1519524.722
187VillanovaPAT5427.127.60.1316924.631
188RichmondPAT6320.125.30.0216524.038
189DrakePFL3626.834.3-0.0226223.876
190UC DavisSKY5430.031.8-0.0417323.769
191Alcorn StSWAC5443.034.8-0.0723023.597
192W IllinoisBSOV5435.326.2-0.0916823.505
193ULMSUN1720.337.0-0.1013623.451
194N IowaMFC4427.027.4-0.2115622.904
195NC CentralMEAC4525.124.8-0.2322022.786
196San DiegoPFL4530.337.6-0.2425222.762
197SEMOBSOV5422.824.8-0.2417022.752
198UTEPMWC1714.136.5-0.2713022.579
199DuquesneNEC4424.326.4-0.3116722.381
200S UtahSKY3631.233.2-0.3821122.056
201Holy CrossPAT4523.127.1-0.3821322.042
202IdahoSKY4530.835.2-0.4215121.812
203PresbyterianPFL4525.337.2-0.4325821.768
204Sacred HeartCAA4421.625.1-0.4522921.688
205ElonCAA4521.918.8-0.4722621.589
206Robert MorrisNEC4523.626.7-0.5726021.059
207GeorgetownPAT3420.326.0-0.6325020.772
208ColumbiaIVY4323.129.3-0.6524620.682
209N ColoradoSKY3621.726.3-0.6524420.658
210N IllinoisMWC0816.337.6-0.7213820.334
211W CarolinaSoCon4529.631.9-0.7416320.199
212StonehillNEC4518.922.6-0.7718720.065
213LindenwoodBSOV4423.423.8-0.7818620.031
214BethuneSWAC5427.132.0-0.8818819.528
215SamfordSoCon3617.021.6-0.8824019.523
216S IllinoisMFC4522.626.3-0.8817819.488
217NC A&TCAA4519.427.3-0.9023819.387
218Delaware StMEAC5423.626.8-1.0019718.882
219Prairie ViewSWAC4525.329.4-1.0219218.786
220Cal PolySKY4625.834.4-1.0423618.680
221Rio GrandeSLAN4621.428.2-1.0622518.577
222E IllinoisBSOV3619.929.9-1.1419618.208
223Morgan StMEAC5425.829.7-1.1617918.108
224MerrimackFCSIND4518.027.1-1.1723218.041
225SouthernSWAC4525.031.2-1.1917617.956
226E KentuckyUAC3618.928.7-1.1921917.951
227LafayettePAT3523.431.4-1.2624117.587
228East TexasSLAN3617.427.4-1.3224517.271
229Norfolk StMEAC4531.924.7-1.3326017.217
230Chrls SoBSOV4524.723.1-1.3914716.935
231Houston ChrSLAN4526.327.8-1.4417716.667
232GramblingSWAC4434.637.3-1.5019316.379
233McNeeseSLAN4522.226.8-1.5018216.348
234DavidsonPFL3622.037.2-1.6826415.446
235FurmanSoCon2716.321.9-1.7122715.312
236Morehead StPFL2728.843.4-1.7726514.989
237New HavenNEC2715.130.3-1.8125614.818
238Chicago StFCSIND2730.636.3-1.9126314.275
239Indiana StMFC2725.235.9-2.0422113.662
240C ArkansasUAC2723.328.9-2.1123713.260
241E WashingtonSKY2727.738.6-2.2920912.359
242HowardMEAC4518.130.3-2.3014612.335
243TX SouthernSWAC3524.640.1-2.3121012.263
244StetsonPFL1824.443.2-2.3226612.221
245UT MartinBSOV3622.834.3-2.3716111.947
246TN StBSOV2715.630.9-2.5020611.315
247MS ValleySWAC3617.736.1-2.5625311.031
248BucknellPAT1811.726.7-2.5724810.970
249William & MaryPAT3618.836.1-2.5920810.850
250Long IslandNEC3614.625.9-2.6218310.704
251New HampshireCAA2719.333.2-2.6323410.648
252TowsonCAA1824.932.3-2.7021510.321
253CitadelSoCon2718.633.1-2.922049.189
254Florida A&MSWAC2719.334.6-2.952029.050
255MaineCAA1813.327.9-2.962249.001
256FordhamPAT2715.931.3-3.162007.998
257Utah TechSKY1819.340.0-3.392226.789
258Nwestern StSLAN0919.347.1-3.402576.757
259NichollsSLAN3614.736.9-3.592145.791
260Portland StSKY2720.942.7-3.851594.478
261MercyhurstNEC1821.440.9-3.991913.765
262West GeorgiaUAC1814.336.3-4.412391.649
263WagnerNEC1813.236.6-4.432011.550
264HamptonCAA1816.637.1-4.482511.301
265VMISoCon098.239.3-4.572550.830
266Murray StMFC1814.741.0-4.741990.000

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