Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 742 which is about basketball and football games today. Yesterday, the GCR had a pretty good day, prediction-wise, as the algorithm went 3-0 straight up and 3-0 against the spread in football. Buffalo (-1.5 and predicted to win and cover) beat Ball St 28-7, C Michigan (-18.5, same) took out Sacramento St 28-7, and Toledo (-14.5, same) shut out UMASS 24-0. That gives us a Week 11 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS head start. Women’s basketball did take a slight dip going 38-15 (717) dropping the YTD to 102-33 (756), but nearly 72% accuracy with so little data is still a good day. The Men surpassed the Women for the first time going 30-11 (732) and 88-35 (715) YTD. For basketball that was a 68-26 (723) day and a 190-68 (736) season so far.
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Within the last couple of days, the NCAA and ESPN have come to an agreement to begin a 24-team FBS playoff (similar to, but not exactly like, the FCS model). The difference is that the FCS model has an auto bid for the conference champions (except for the MEAC and SWAC who choose to play the Celebration Bowl instead), while the new model will only have 5 auto bids (ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, SEC, and highest ranked Group of 6 team). The other 19 will be at large. We actually think this model, which greatly enhances the chances of a 9-3 or 8-4 Core 4 team to make the slate over a 10-2 G6 team, will lead to a separate G6 championship in the coming years – perhaps even a split into a different league. One rule that every Core 4 team must meet in order to qualify is to have 10+ Core 4 teams on their schedule. The ACC, Big 12, and SEC already require this (or are in transition), but the Big Ten nor Notre Dame have any current rules around 10+, although the Irish do have 10 Core 4 teams on this year’s slate. Famously, Indiana (last year’s undefeated champion) currently has no out-of-conference Core 4 teams on their future schedules at all. One sad consequence of adding (at least) one more round of playoffs for the eventual champion (and runner-up) is that conference championships are done. This will be the last year for FBS championship games. It’s begged the question of why have conferences at all (especially if one is not among the elite in one’s conference)? We suspect there will be more changes (to keep G6 in the mix, or to encourage challenging schedules) in the coming years. The BCS was created because there was no good way to reconcile a champion when multiple undefeated teams existed after the bowls. The 4-team playoff was created when the perception of SEC bias (the data does not demonstrate that bias, but it was (and is) widely held as fact) to replace the BCS. That playoff expanded to 12 when “championship caliber” teams (read Ohio St and others) were 5th. And now, we move to 24 – not because of a lack of faith in the 12-team model – but rather for the almighty dollar. This deal is worth well over a billion dollars.
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After two nights of MACNation, we turn our football attention to a couple of conference games with the Memphis Tigers (7-2/35) invading the South Florida Bulls (6-3/55) in an American showdown. The Tigers are tied for second in conference play with UTSA (7-2/51) and need the win to keep pace. All three of SFLA’s losses are within the AAC which means they are out of the final championship game, but they can still spoil someone else’s fun. Vegas has a close game with MEM-3.5 and the GCR agrees to win and cover. This game is at 8:00 (all times Eastern) on ESPN.
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Overlapping the American is a Sun Belt tryst when the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (6-3/54) head to the ULM Warhawks (2-7/194). ULM has once again missed a bowl game so have nothing to play for other than to mess up someone else’s season. Vegas has LAU-10.5 which the GCR thinks is correct. Louisiana wins and covers at 9:00 on ESPN2.
| Time (ET) | Games of November 12th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 8:00 | Memphis (7-2/35) at South Florida (6-3/55) | AAC | MEM -3.5 | MEM | MEM | ESPN |
| 9:00 | Louisiana (6-3/54) at ULM (2-7/194) | SUN | LAU -10.5 | LAU | LAU | ESPN2 |
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We have a short slate with MBB tonight with just 29 games, none of which involve two teams that are both in the GCR Top 100. There are typically three types of November games in college basketball: 1) let’s play a non-Division I (ND1) team, win by 80, and think we are phenomenal for a day, 2) play a level down (Power to upper Mid-Major, upper M-M to lower tier M-M, etc.) which often give the same results but the games are about 40 points closer, or 3) find a reasonable peer which can really teach a team what they have and where they need work (not to mention close or OT games). Today is a lot of the first two for the men. Here is the slate (reminder that NPre for a game in which both teams have played at least two means that the GCR prediction algorithms do not agree with each other):
| Time | MBB November 12th (All Times Eastern) | Conf | Pred | TV |
| 3:00 | Kansas City (2-2/195) / George Mason (2-0/73) | SUM/A10 | GM | YouTube |
| 6:00 | Bradley (1-2/238) / Coppin St (1-2/165) | MVC/MEAC | COPP | YouTube |
| 6:00 | Johnson & Wales (—) / Boston Univ (2-1/88) | —/PAT | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | Morgan St (3-0/362) / Balt County (1-2/293) | MEAC/AME | BACO | ESPN+ |
| 6:30 | Mercyhurst (1-2/197) / Penn St (2-1/30) | NEC/B10 | PSU | B1G+ |
| 6:30 | TN Tech (2-1/101) / Indiana (3-0/27) | SoCon/B10 | IND | Big Ten Network |
| 7:00 | Lynchburg (—) / Coastal (1-2/234) | —/SUN | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | W Michigan (2-1/266) / Fort Wayne (1-1/176) | MAC/HOR | FW | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | LaGrange (—) / Kennesaw St (3-0/251) | —/USA | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | C Connecticut (1-2/178) / Sacred Heart (2-1/271) | NEC/MAAC | CCON | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Monmouth (0-2/180) / Quinnipiac (2-1/96) | CAA/MAAC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Stetson (0-3/270) / Howard (1-2/345) | ASUN/MEAC | STET | MEAC Network |
| 7:00 | Mercer (2-2/121) / West Virginia (2-0/250) | SoCon/B12 | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Loyola MD (1-2/262) / Towson (1-2/169) | PAT/CAA | TOW | FloCollege |
| 7:00 | S Utah (3-0/364) / High Point (3-0/171) | SKY/BSO | HP | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Bakersfield (2-0/343) / W Illinois (1-2/295) | BW/OVC | WILL | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | MD Eastern (1-3/245) / Rhode Island (3-0/166) | MEAC/A10 | RISL | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Canisius (1-2/256) / Brown (1-2/253) | MAAC/Ivy | BRO | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Niagara (0-2/248) / Bowling Green (2-0/170) | MAAC/MAC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | West Florida (2-1/324) / Alabama A&M (2-1/247) | ASUN/SWAC | ALAM | SWAC TV |
| 8:00 | Oklahoma St (2-0/110) / Texas A&M (3-0/58) | B12/SEC | TAM | SEC+ |
| 8:00 | LMU (1-2/350) / South Alabama (1-2/147) | WCC/SUN | SALA | FloCollege |
| 8:00 | Southern (0-4/333) / Minnesota (3-0/10) | SWAC/B10 | MINN | B1G+ |
| 8:00 | Richmond (3-0/86) / S Illinois (1-1/346) | A10/MVC | RICH | ESPN+ |
| 9:00 | Montana St (1-1/142) / BYU (3-0/6) | SKY/B12 | BYU | ESPN+ |
| 9:00 | Lincoln CA (—) / Fullerton (1-1/161) | —/BW | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 9:00 | New Mexico St (1-1/289) / UTEP (1-1/317) | USA/MTW | NPre | MW+ |
| 9:00 | Grace Chr (—) / Northridge (0-2/276) | —/BW | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 9:00 | UC Riverside (2-0/357) / San Jose St (1-1/74) | BW/MTW | SJST | MW+ |
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The Women not only have a larger slate with 50 games today, but they also have a few significant – type 3 as described above – games, defined as matchups where both teams are in the GCR Top 100. At 6:30, UCONN (2-1/8) and Ohio St (3-0/51) clash (look for the Huskies to win). At the same time, Mid Tenn (1-1/84) and Tennessee (3-0/10) meet with the Volunteers expected to win. At 7:00, the in-state rivalry continues with South Carolina (2-0/6) at Clemson (3-0/1) with the GCR calling a No Prediction (each algorithm picked a different winner). Also at 7:00, Fairfield (2-0/70) and Seton Hall (2-0/93) tip off in another NPre. Our final game tonight, at 10:30, Arizona (2-0/14) and UCLA (2-0/38) have a clash with the GCR picking Arizona to win. Here is the full docket.
| Time | WBB November 12th (all times Eastern) | Conf | Pred | TV |
| 11:00am | Alb St (—) / Florida A&M (0-2/198) | —/SWAC | NPre | — |
| 11:00am | Chattanooga (1-2/220) / N Kentucky (2-1/153) | SoCon/HOR | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 11:00am | WV St (—) / Marshall (3-0/103) | —/SUN | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 11:30am | Wilmington (2-0/302) / Wake Forest (3-0/16) | CAA/ACC | WF | ACC Extra |
| 12:00 | Spalding (—) / S Indiana (0-3/301) | —/OVC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 12:00 | C Methodist (—) / SIUE (2-1/341) | —/OVC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 12:00 | Morehead St (0-3/285) / Murray St (1-2/199) | OVC/MVC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | Portland St (0-3/337) / UC San Diego (1-1/63) | SKY/BW | UCSD | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | Fullerton (2-1/329) / UC Davis (1-2/310) | BW/MTW | UCD | MW+ |
| 2:00 | Charleston (2-1/177) / California (3-0/42) | CAA/ACC | CAL | ACC Extra |
| 4:30 | Holy Cross (2-1/79) / Brown (1-2/295) | PAT/IVY | HC | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | Oklahoma St (3-0/99) / Tulsa (1-1/351) | B12/AAC | OKST | ESPNU |
| 6:00 | Longwood (2-1/358) / Penn (3-0/231) | BSO/IVY | PENN | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | Sacramento St (3-0/234) / Buffalo (1-1/216) | BW/MAC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | S Illinois (0-2/333) / E Kentucky (3-1/232) | MVC/UAC | EKY | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | Virginia Tech (3-0/60) / VCU (1-0/339) | ACC/A10 | VT | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | Old Dominion (3-0/306) / Richmond (1-2/163) | SUN/A10 | RICH | ESPN+ |
| 6:00 | South Florida (2-1/235) / Florida (3-0/22) | AAC/SEC | FLA | SEC+ |
| 6:30 | UCONN (2-1/8) / Ohio St (3-0/51) | BE/B10 | UCON | Fox Sports 1 |
| 6:30 | W Carolina (3-0/354) / Asheville (2-1/277) | SoCon/BSO | ASH | ESPN+ |
| 6:30 | Mid Tenn (1-1/84) / Tennessee (3-0/10) | USA/SEC | TENN | SEC+ |
| 7:00 | South Carolina (2-0/6) / Clemson (3-0/1) | SEC/ACC | NPre | ESPN2 |
| 7:00 | Michigan (2-0/5) / Columbia (3-0/193) | B10/IVY | MICH | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Duke (2-0/37) / Norfolk St (1-2/345) | ACC/MEAC | DUKE | MEAC Network |
| 7:00 | Merrimack (0-3/312) / Villanova (0-2/106) | MAAC/BE | VILL | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Rider (0-1/229) / C Connecticut (0-3/350) | MAAC/NEC | NPre | NEC Front Row |
| 7:00 | North Dakota (1-1/363) / Milwaukee (0-3/346) | SUM/HOR | MIL | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | North Dakota St (1-2/279) / Butler (3-0/82) | SUM/BE | BUT | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Jackson St (1-2/200) / Southern Miss (2-1/180) | SWAC/SUN | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | MS Valley (0-3/344) / Lipscomb (1-2/135) | SWAC/ASUN | LIP | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Rhode Island (1-2/96) / Wagner (1-2/228) | A10/NEC | RISL | NEC Front Row |
| 7:00 | Manhattan (1-2/261) / Fair Dickins (1-2/137) | MAAC/NEC | FDU | YES |
| 7:00 | St Peters (0-2/203) / Miami FL (3-0/45) | MAAC/ACC | MIAF | ACC Extra |
| 7:00 | MD Eastern (1-1/141) / Georgia Tech (2-1/4) | MEAC/ACC | GT | ACC Extra |
| 7:00 | Fairfield (2-0/70) / Seton Hall (2-0/93) | MAAC/BE | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Alabama (4-0/54) / Memphis (3-0/194) | SEC/AAC | ALA | ESPN+ |
| 7:30 | SELA (1-1/160) / TCU (4-0/25) | SLAN/B12 | TCU | ESPN+ |
| 7:30 | UT Martin (2-1/81) / Missouri (3-0/50) | OVC/SEC | MIZZ | SEC+ |
| 7:30 | Ark Pine Bluff (1-2/224) / Arkansas (3-0/52) | SWAC/SEC | ARK | SEC+ |
| 7:30 | Nwestern St (1-2/138) / LA Tech (3-0/196) | SLAN/SUN | NWST | ESPN+ |
| 7:30 | Howard (1-2/123) / Iowa St (3-0/120) | MEAC/B12 | IAST | ESPN+ |
| 7:30 | New Orleans (0-3/255) / Tulane (1-1/88) | SLAN/AAC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | Louisville (4-0/95) / Ball St (1-1/181) | ACC/MAC | LOU | CBS Sports |
| 8:00 | North Florida (2-1/213) / Little Rock (1-2/187) | ASUN/UAC | LR | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | Arlington Bapt (—) / Lamar (1-2/282) | —/SLAN | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | Prairie View (1-0/362) / Baylor (3-0/18) | SWAC/B12 | BAY | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | TX Southern (0-2/278) / Rice (3-0/121) | SWAC/AAC | NPre | ESPN+ |
| 8:30 | N Iowa (1-1/192) / Iowa (2-1/74) | MVC/B10 | IOWA | Big Ten Network |
| 10:00 | Bakersfield (1-0/361) / Washington (2-0/27) | BW/B10 | WASH | B1G+ |
| 10:30 | Arizona (2-0/14) / UCLA (2-0/38) | B12/B10 | ARIZ | Big Ten Network |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for another Friday night special. Until then, thank you for reading (it’s why we publish), commenting (it’s how we get better), and sharing with others (it’s how we grow), JoJo and G
