Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 712 in which we have four more games. First, let’s talk about last night. UAB (4-3/96) had a rare 13-point overtime victory over East Carolina (3-3/101). It gets even better. The Blazers were down 17-9 with 9:27 to go in the game. After a turnover on downs followed by an East Carolina punt, UAB got the ball at their own 7-yard line with 1:37 to play. Of course, a false start pushed them back to the 3. What became a 10-play 93-yard drive in 1:02 (yes, 6.2 seconds per play) a 17-yard TD pass followed by a game-tying 2-point conversion forced the extra time. Getting the ball first, UAB scored a TD and kicked an extra point: 24-17 UAB. On 3rd and 5 from the 22, UAB intercepted the pass and ran it back 80 yards for the 13-point win. East Carolina was favored and the GCR thought they would win, but UAB to cover so not all bad. GA Southern (3-4/106) took care of business over at Old Dominion (2-5/135) 23-15. That brought the GCR’s day record to 1-1 (straight up)/1-1 (against the spread). In the night cap, Texas St (3-3/91) rushed for over 500 yards (716 total offense) to top Colorado St (2-4/131) 66-27 in a Pac-12 matchup. They scored 21 in the first, 24 in the second (COST scored 21 in the second as well – 45 total points!), and 21 more in the 3rd. The 4th was scoreless (probably due to fatigue of the scoreboard operator). In that second quarter, there were 6 offensive TDs and a field goal with 29 seconds to go in the half! Overall, the GCR is 4-3/3-4 in predictions heading into tonight’s action.
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Speaking of tonight’s action, our opening game, at 7:00 (all times Eastern) features an Ivy League matchup: Columbia (3-1/169) at Penn (2-2/172). Both teams lost their first conference games and need this game to stay in the title hunt. This is a tough game to predict. Neither team has shown a great deal on offense or defense so far. Vegas has been fluctuating all day, but at this moment, they have PENN-5.5. The GCR is mixed a bit as well. The standard algorithm shows Columbia with the road upset by 8.0 points; however, the beta algorithm has Penn winning by 2.0 points. While the two valuations differ, they have become much closer as the season progresses – a 10-point difference in a close game has been unusual in recent weeks. That said, the GCR is calling for Columbia to win and cover. You can watch this game on ESPNU.
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At 7:30, on ESPN, we have an American Conference fight when Memphis (5-1/37) invades Tulane (2-3/114). Vegas has MEM-6.5 on this game but neither algorithm has the game that close, even with the Tigers in New Orleans. The GCR sees Memphis winning this be between 21.0 (beta) and 22.5 (current) points. Tulane has been really good for the past few years, and this matchup has been a really important game in the AAC, but Tulane’s offense has been pretty bad this year. Memphis is looking like the AAC power they typically have been. MEM to win and cover.
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Shifting to the Sun Belt, we have another traditional power matchup (although not so much this season) as App St (3-2/103) travels to Conway, SC, to take on Coastal (2-4/127). There have been years in which this game would be the deciding factor in the SBC East Division race. This year, they each have a loss and James Madison (6-0/26) seems to be running away with the division (and conference). They issue that both of these teams have is a lack of consistent scoring. Their defenses are…ok, so we’re expecting a low scoring game. Vegas has APST-1.5 which the GCR calculates as a cover (6.0 beta and 7.0 current). Look for App St to steal the road game and continue the Chanticleers disappointing season. This game is at 8:00 on ESPN2.
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Our final match is our first Core 4 game this week when the Washington Huskies (3-3/58) travel to the Purdue Boilermakers (3-3/45) who are having a much better season than they’ve had the last couple of years through a surging offense and decent defense. The Huskies are about average on both sides of the ball which gives Purdue an advantage, especially at home. It’s a long way from the Seattle to West Lafayette, Indiana (2189 miles or 31 hours driving time). We are willing to bet that the Huskies had this game marked as a win on their preseason schedule analysis. Vegas, however, disagrees halfway through the season as they have PUR-3.5. The GCR provides a range for the Purdue victory of between 4.5 (current) and 10.0 (beta). Either way, our prediction (which like all of our prognostications are for entertainment purposes only) is for the Boilermakers to get win #4 and to cover. This game is also at 8:00 on Fox.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 16th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Columbia (3-1/169) at Penn (2-2/172) | IVY | PENN -5.5 | COLA | COLA | ESPNU |
| 7:30 | Memphis (5-1/37) at Tulane (2-3/114) | AAC | MEM -6.5 | MEM | MEM | ESPN |
| 8:00 | App St (3-2/103) at Coastal (2-4/127) | SUN | APST -1.5 | APST | APST | ESPN2 |
| 8:00 | Washington (3-3/58) at Purdue (3-3/45) | B10 | PUR -3.5 | PUR | PUR | Fox |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a full slate (minus a good number of bye weeks as is common in October) as we finish up the Week 7 games. Then on Sunday, we’ll have the latest Top 266. For an additional update, we are finalizing both the Men’s and Women’s Basketball programming/testing for a November 1st start – not long now. Until tomorrow, thank you for taking the time to read our content, taking even more time to comment or offer suggestions for improvement, and even more time to share what we do with others. With humility and sincerity, JoJo and G.
