Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 713, with apologies to the great Ernie Banks for the title. At least at the GCR secret headquarters (aka, G’s house), the weather has turned to a distinctly autumnal vibe. Leaves are changing, the temperature is comfortable, and it just feels like football. Of course, that means basketball is just around the corner. More on that in a moment. Yesterday, Columbia (4-1/168) took down Penn (2-3/177) in a 1-point thriller, 28-27. Penn was favored, but the GCR picked that one correctly. Memphis (5-2/55) was favored but was blown out 31-17 at Tulane (3-3/94) and we did not calculate that one well. App St (4-2/91) won and covered, as predicted, 35-32 at Coastal (2-5/129). Our nightcap expected favorite Purdue (3-4/59) to win and cover, but Washington (4-3/47) ran away with the game 38-26. That put us 2-2 straight up and 2-2 against the spread for a disappointing 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS for the pre-Saturday games this week.
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Briefly back to basketball. We are continuing to code and test the programs for both Men’s and Women’s teams. We have the usual number of “why is that number so wonky” stuff that happens year over year despite the formulae being the same (not sure we’ll ever understand why), but nothing major. We are exactly on the project plan (yes, G is that type of geek, as if you couldn’t tell already) for a November 1st kickoff (just a handful of games) prior to the full-blown 11/2 tsunami of games (well over 200 total). Predictions are different for basketball because they were actually built just for the postseason but are similar to football in that we need a few data points before we can post anything. We are not 100% sure, but we are thinking each team needs at least two games played first, although one game is showing some promise as well. The sports differ in the GCR in that for basketball we only predict the winner of the game ignoring the ATS prediction. We also have a double test which we’ll describe in more detail when the time comes, but the short answer is that we use two metrics to predict – if they disagree, we call it too close to call. Football just uses one for now, although the beta test we are going through could end up shifting football to the basketball approach. Time (and more testing) will tell.
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Back to football. The first games are just over an hour away now and we are going to skip any more jibber-jabber and post already. There are some exciting games today. There are some critically important games today. There is an official Toilet Bowl Game today (always JoJo’s favorite) between Long Island (2-5/253) and Wagner (1-5/266) – teams with an average GCR ranking of 259.5 out of 266 teams. Here is the list – have a great October day and may your favorite team win, unless they are playing ours.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 17th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 12:00 | Ohio St (5-1/7) at Indiana (6-0/6) | B10 | OHST -2.5 | IND | IND | Fox |
| 12:00 | Cincinnati (4-1/31) at West Virginia (3-3/75) | B12 | WVU -1.5 | CIN | CIN | TNT |
| 12:00 | Georgia St (4-1/57) at James Madison (6-0/27) | SUN | JMU -9.5 | JMU | JMU | ESPNU |
| 12:00 | Ball St (1-5/149) at Bowling Green (2-4/120) | MAC | BG -6.5 | BG | BG | ESPN+ |
| 12:00 | Mississippi St (4-1/13) at LSU (4-2/22) | SEC | LSU -17.5 | MSST | MSST | ESPN |
| 12:00 | Virginia (4-2/54) at SMU (4-1/40) | ACC | SMU -9.5 | SMU | VIR | The CW |
| 12:00 | FAU (4-1/64) at Army (3-2/92) | AAC | ARMY -2.5 | FAU | FAU | CBS Sports |
| 12:00 | Chrls So (3-3/196) at Clemson (3-2/50) | BSOV/ACC | CLEM -42.5 | CLEM | CLEM | ACC Network |
| 12:00 | Florida (4-2/35) at Texas (4-1/11) | SEC | TEX -11.5 | TEX | TEX | ABC |
| 12:00 | Kansas (2-3/73) at Kansas St (3-2/60) | B12 | KSST -3.5 | KSST | KSST | Fox Sports 1 |
| 12:00 | Pittsburgh (5-1/29) at Boston College (2-3/86) | ACC | BC -5.5 | PITT | PITT | ESPN2 |
| 12:00 | Northwestern (4-1/15) at Michigan St (2-4/67) | B10 | NW -7.5 | NW | NW | Peacock |
| 12:00 | Hampton (1-5/262) at Sacred Heart (2-4/212) | CAA | NL | SH | — | FloFootball |
| 12:00 | Chicago St (1-5/233) at NC A&T (2-5/224) | FCSIND/CAA | NCAT -19.5 | NCAT | CHST | FloFootball |
| 12:00 | New Haven (1-5/231) at Robert Morris (3-3/194) | NEC | NL | RM | — | NEC Front Row |
| 12:00 | Brown (2-2/159) at Princeton (3-1/119) | IVY | NL | PRIN | — | ESPN+ |
| 12:00 | Rhode Island (3-3/181) at Yale (3-1/136) | CAA/IVY | YALE -13.0 | YALE | YALE | ESPN+ |
| 12:00 | C Connecticut (2-3/218) at Mercyhurst (1-5/265) | NEC | NL | CCON | — | NEC Front Row |
| 12:00 | Duquesne (1-4/251) at Stonehill (2-4/215) | NEC | NL | STON | — | NEC Front Row |
| 12:30 | Rutgers (1-4/116) at Maryland (2-4/81) | B10 | MARY -6.5 | MARY | MARY | Big Ten Network |
| 1:00 | Citadel (2-4/211) at Texas A&M (3-3/46) | SoCon/SEC | TAM -46.0 | TAM | TAM | SEC+ |
| 1:00 | Charlotte (0-6/197) at Temple (2-4/133) | AAC | TEMP -19.5 | TEMP | TEMP | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | UMASS (4-2/79) at Buffalo (3-3/111) | MAC | BUFF -7.5 | UMAS | UMAS | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Holy Cross (2-4/220) at Harvard (4-0/121) | PAT/IVY | HARV -16.0 | HARV | HARV | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Monmouth (4-2/192) at New Hampshire (2-5/240) | CAA | NL | MONM | — | FloFootball |
| 1:00 | Marist (3-3/163) at Drake (2-4/182) | PFL | DRAK -4.5 | MARI | MARI | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Georgetown (1-4/226) at Colgate (4-2/139) | PAT | NL | COLG | — | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Morehead St (1-5/238) at Davidson (2-5/228) | PFL | NL | DAV | — | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Merrimack (2-4/234) at Dartmouth (1-3/195) | FCSIND/IVY | DART -8.5 | DART | DART | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | McNeese (2-4/244) at Nwestern St (0-6/257) | SLAN | NL | MCN | — | ESPN+ |
| 1:00 | Bryant (4-2/170) at Maine (1-5/250) | CAA | MAIN -2.0 | BRY | BRY | FloFootball |
| 1:00 | Dayton (4-1/154) at Butler (5-1/147) | PFL | BUT -5.5 | BUT | BUT | ESPN+ |
| 1:30 | W Michigan (4-2/80) at C Michigan (3-3/102) | MAC | WMI -7.5 | WMI | CMI | ESPN+ |
| 1:30 | VMI (0-6/263) at Wofford (4-3/174) | SoCon | NL | WOFF | — | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | Austin Peay (5-2/145) at West Georgia (1-5/260) | UAC | NL | AP | — | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | South Dakota St (5-1/128) at North Dakota (5-2/146) | MFC | SDKS -14.5 | SDKS | NDAK | Midco Sports |
| 2:00 | W Alabama (N/A) at West Florida (3-2/173) | NA/UAC | NL | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | Lehigh (6-0/109) at Cornell (2-2/165) | PAT/IVY | LEH -12.0 | LEH | LEH | ESPN+ |
| 2:00 | Presbyterian (3-3/183) at Stetson (1-5/239) | PFL | PC -7.5 | PC | PC | YouTube |
| 2:30 | Albany (3-3/160) at Stony Brook (4-2/166) | CAA | NL | ALB | — | FloFootball |
| 2:30 | E Kentucky (2-4/214) at TN Tech (5-1/134) | UAC/SoCon | NL | TNTC | — | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Idaho (1-5/241) at Montana (5-2/143) | SKY | NL | MONT | — | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Alabama St (3-3/178) at Ark Pine Bluff (3-2/198) | SWAC | ALST -3.0 | ALST | ALST | SWAC TV |
| 3:00 | Grambling (4-2/217) at Alabama A&M (5-2/140) | SWAC | NL | ALAM | — | SWAC TV |
| 3:00 | W Illinois (3-3/209) at SEMO (3-3/200) | BSOV | NL | SEMO | — | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Bethune (3-3/229) at MS Valley (3-4/222) | SWAC | BETH -6.5 | MSVL | MSVL | SWAC TV |
| 3:00 | Alcorn St (4-3/206) at Prairie View (2-5/232) | SWAC | NL | ACST | — | HBCUGo |
| 3:00 | Gardner Webb (2-5/184) at UT Martin (2-4/243) | BSOV | NL | GWEB | — | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Lindenwood (1-4/255) at E Illinois (2-4/225) | BSOV | pick | EILL | EILL | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Florida A&M (2-4/249) at Jackson St (5-1/156) | SWAC | JAST -14.0 | JAST | JAST | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Lafayette (1-4/247) at Bucknell (1-5/242) | PAT | LAF -4.0 | LAF | LAF | ESPN+ |
| 3:00 | Idaho St (4-2/122) at Weber St (4-3/188) | SKY | NL | IDST | — | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Alabama (5-1/2) at Tennessee (5-1/25) | SEC | ALA -8.5 | ALA | TENN | ABC |
| 3:30 | Missouri (5-1/17) at Mississippi (4-1/19) | SEC | MISS -5.5 | MIZZ | MIZZ | SEC Network |
| 3:30 | Arizona St (3-2/82) at Texas Tech (5-0/8) | B12 | TXTC -15.5 | TXTC | TXTC | Fox |
| 3:30 | N Illinois (0-5/161) at Wyoming (3-3/113) | MWC | WYO -8.5 | WYO | WYO | The CW |
| 3:30 | Georgia Tech (2-3/96) at Virginia Tech (4-2/42) | ACC | VT -9.5 | VT | VT | ACC Network |
| 3:30 | North Carolina (3-2/38) at Duke (4-1/33) | ACC | DUKE -3.5 | DUKE | DUKE | ESPN2 |
| 3:30 | Penn St (3-3/49) at Michigan (3-2/43) | B10 | MICH -6.5 | MICH | MICH | CBS |
| 3:30 | UNLV (4-2/65) at Air Force (4-1/66) | MWC | AF -1.5 | AF | AF | CBS Sports |
| 3:30 | Auburn (3-2/39) at Georgia (6-0/4) | SEC | GEO -19.5 | GEO | GEO | ESPN |
| 3:30 | Toledo (4-2/90) at E Michigan (4-3/99) | MAC | TOL -6.5 | TOL | EMI | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Akron (1-5/150) at Miami OH (3-3/103) | MAC | MIAO -9.5 | MIAO | MIAO | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Towson (0-7/256) at Campbell (5-1/153) | CAA | CAMP -12.5 | CAMP | CAMP | FloFootball |
| 3:30 | Morehouse (N/A) at Howard (2-4/252) | NA/MEAC | NL | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 3:30 | Villanova (2-4/235) at Fordham (2-5/245) | PAT | NL | VILL | — | ESPN+ |
| 4:00 | Valparaiso (3-3/169) at San Diego (2-4/208) | PFL | SDIE -6.5 | VAL | VAL | ESPN+ |
| 4:00 | Steph F Austin (6-0/118) at Nicholls (2-4/259) | SLAN | NL | SFA | — | ESPN+ |
| 4:00 | Illinois St (4-2/142) at S Illinois (3-4/202) | MFC | ILST -7.0 | ILST | ILST | ESPNU |
| 4:30 | Tulsa (3-3/105) at Rice (1-5/127) | AAC | TULS -5.5 | TULS | TULS | ESPN+ |
| 5:00 | Troy (3-2/87) at Louisiana (4-2/61) | SUN | LAU -3.5 | LAU | LAU | ESPN+ |
| 5:00 | Lamar (5-1/151) at SELA (3-3/175) | SLAN | LAM -4.5 | LAM | LAM | ESPN+ |
| 5:00 | South Dakota (5-2/138) at Murray St (1-5/264) | MFC | NL | SDAK | — | ESPN+ |
| 5:00 | Long Island (2-5/253) at Wagner (1-5/266) | NEC | NL | LIU | — | NEC Front Row |
| 6:00 | Washington St (1-5/152) at Oregon St (4-2/52) | PAC | ORST -18.5 | ORST | ORST | USA |
| 6:00 | N Iowa (3-2/201) at Youngstown St (5-2/141) | MFC | YST -20.5 | YST | NIA | ESPN+ |
| 6:30 | Morgan St (5-1/187) at TN St (1-5/248) | MEAC/BSOV | NL | MORG | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Nevada (2-3/104) at North Dakota St (5-1/36) | MWC | NDST -14.5 | NDST | NDST | CBS Sports |
| 7:00 | Florida St (3-3/56) at Miami FL (5-0/1) | ACC | MIAF -20.5 | MIAF | MIAF | ESPN |
| 7:00 | Kent St (2-4/124) at South Florida (4-2/74) | MAC/AAC | SFLA -20.5 | SFLA | SFLA | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | TCU (2-3/84) at Baylor (4-1/26) | B12 | BAY -5.5 | BAY | BAY | Fox Sports 1 |
| 7:00 | Arkansas (2-4/85) at Vanderbilt (3-3/69) | SEC | VAN -5.5 | VAN | VAN | ESPN2 |
| 7:00 | Arkansas St (2-4/126) at Southern Miss (1-4/164) | SUN | ARST -6.5 | ARST | SMIS | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | C Arkansas (2-4/237) at Tarleton (6-0/112) | UAC | TAR -20.5 | TAR | TAR | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Montana St (5-1/106) at E Washington (2-5/219) | SKY | NL | MTST | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Rio Grande (3-4/199) at Incarnate Word (2-4/213) | SLAN | IW -3.5 | RG | RG | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Mercer (5-2/158) at Samford (1-5/216) | SoCon | MERC -14.5 | — | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Portland St (2-4/258) at N Arizona (5-2/171) | SKY | NL | NAZ | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | East Texas (2-4/210) at Houston Chr (3-3/227) | SLAN | NL | ETEX | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:00 | Abilene Chr (3-4/191) at North Alabama (4-2/176) | UAC | NL | NALA | — | ESPN+ |
| 7:30 | Louisville (3-3/53) at Syracuse (2-3/70) | ACC | LOU -14.5 | LOU | SYR | ACC Network |
| 7:30 | Kentucky (5-1/28) at Oklahoma (3-2/32) | SEC | OKLA -6.5 | KENY | KENY | SEC Network |
| 7:30 | Elon (4-3/167) at Stanford (2-4/77) | CAA/ACC | NL | STAN | — | ACC Extra |
| 7:30 | Wisconsin (4-1/21) at UCLA (5-0/5) | B10 | UCLA -2.5 | UCLA | UCLA | NBC |
| 7:30 | Oklahoma St (4-1/30) at Houston (5-1/12) | B12 | HOU -4.5 | HOU | HOU | Fox |
| 7:30 | Notre Dame (6-0/3) at BYU (5-0/9) | IND/B12 | ND -10.5 | ND | BYU | ABC |
| 8:00 | Navy (2-3/110) at UTSA (5-1/62) | AAC | UTSA -6.5 | UTSA | UTSA | ESPNU |
| 8:00 | LA Tech (3-2/95) at ULM (0-5/180) | SUN | LATC -15.5 | LATC | LATC | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | UC Davis (4-2/186) at S Utah (2-4/203) | SKY | UCD -5.0 | UCD | UCD | ESPN+ |
| 8:00 | Cal Poly (4-3/190) at N Colorado (2-5/204) | SKY | CP -3.5 | CP | CP | ESPN+ |
| 9:00 | San Jose St (3-3/97) at UTEP (1-5/189) | MWC | SJST -6.5 | SJST | SJST | MW+ |
| 10:00 | Ohio (4-2/71) at Sacramento St (1-5/172) | MAC | OHIO -15.5 | OHIO | OHIO | ESPN+ |
| 10:15 | Utah (5-0/10) at Colorado (2-3/88) | B12 | UTAH -14.5 | UTAH | UTAH | ESPN |
| 10:30 | Fresno St (4-2/51) at San Diego St (2-4/123) | PAC | FRST -7.5 | FRST | FRST | CBS Sports |
| 10:30 | Wake Forest (5-1/18) at California (3-3/83) | ACC | WF -9.5 | WF | WF | ESPN2 |
| 10:30 | New Mexico (4-1/44) at Hawaii (1-5/157) | MWC | NMEX -14.5 | NMEX | NMEX | Fox Sports 1 |
| 11:00 | Nebraska (5-1/16) at Oregon (3-2/20) | B10 | ORE -6.5 | NEB | NEB | Fox |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for our Week 6 Top 266. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G
