G’s Evaluation or Just Wow!

Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 714 or the GCR’s Top 266 and other analysis. Before we get into the weekly routine, we did see another mini-upset week, especially in the SEC. Texas (was number 1 in the AP poll two weeks ago), Georgia (was the current number 1 in the AP poll), and Alabama all lost in the same week. It’s the first time since 2006 that GEO and ALA both lost on the same Saturday. It’s the first time since 1990 that AP #1’s lost to unranked teams in back-to-back weeks. It’s the first time ever, that #1 teams lost on the last play of the game (winning field goals by Oklahoma and Auburn, respectively). And the games were both 27-24. And the #1 teams turned the ball over to set up the winning drive. It gets better. Undefeated teams in the FBS were just 5-3 yesterday (previously 44-0). Indiana (6-1/12) lost at home to Ohio St (6-1/5) 19-15 when a wide-open Hoosier stepped out of bounds for an incompletion in the end zone! Georgia (6-1/11) lost the turnover battle 3-0 which led to the loss to Auburn (4-2/29). A matchup of undefeated teams meant one had to lose. It was Notre Dame (6-1/3) who lost at BYU (6-0/6) 28-24. That game could have been different if, as the Big 12 published this morning, the officiating crew put a second back on the clock following an incompletion. The Irish were on the Cougar 8. There were 3 FBS teams who had failed to win a game. Two of them (N Illinois and ULM) continued their winless ways, but Charlotte (1-6/181) was facing a bowl eligibility disqualifying game, were favored to lose to Temple (2-5/145) by 19.5 points (same as Georgia/Auburn) and won 38-31. In the FCS, there were few opportunities. All 3 winless teams who played lost and the then 4 perfect teams were 3-1 with Lehigh (6-1/109) being upset by Cornell (3-2/152) 48-38 despite being 12-point favorites.

…..

Sticking with the FCS, the 3 remaining unbeaten teams are Harvard (5-0/115), Steph F Austin (7-0/99) and Tarleton (7-0/101). There are a total of 4 perfectly imperfect teams left: NWestern St (0-7/236), Towson (0-8/257), Utah Tech (0-7/264), and VMI (0-7/262). Switching to the FBS and looking at bowl eligibility, we’ll list the teams that have clinched a bowl so far, in alphabetical order, listing the undefeated teams first. To quality a team must have 6 wins with no more than one FCS game counting (it’s rare, but sometimes Group of 6 teams play more than 1). BYU (6-0/6), James Madison (7-0/17), Miami FL (6-0/1), Texas Tech (6-0/4), UCLA (6-0/2), and Utah (6-0/7), Georgia (6-1/11), Houston (6-1/13), Indiana (6-1/12), Kentucky (6-1/21), North Dakota St (6-1/28), Notre Dame (6-1/3), Ohio St (6-1/5), Southern Cal (6-1/19), Tennessee (6-1/15), UTSA (6-1/52), and Wake Forest (6-1/9). There are no teams eliminated from bowl consideration, but there are 9 teams sitting on 6 losses (7 means out, generally but that confusion is for a later post). There are also 21 teams with 5 wins with a chance to become eligible in their next game.

…..

With the mini-upset week (12 of 55 FBS games and 8 of 27 FCS games had the Vegas underdog win the game), not only did the Top 266 go through a blender, but the GCR’s prediction algorithm got slapped in the face…hard. It was so bad this week that we contemplated just dropping predictions altogether. It’s not the first time we felt this way, and we will continue for now, but it is important to remember the GCR was designed as a ranking tool, not a prediction tool. We only started doing that part of the posts when readers requested it. In the meantime, we did predict (poorly) the games of Week 7, so we have to post the results. Please skip ahead to the next section (insert embarrassment emoji here).

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (000)
0-2 (000)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643) 14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941) 11-6 (647)8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938) 10-6 (625)14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709) 56-60 (483)
313-7 (650) 10-10 (500)18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712) 53-53 (500)
413-10 (565) 17-6 (739)7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762) 13-8 (619)8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726) 74-39 (655)
517-10 (630) 16-11 (593)2-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
1-0 (1000)
0-1 (0)
19-7 (731) 18-8 (692)2-0 (1000)
2-0 (1000)
33-20 (623)
28-20 (583)
74-37 (667) 66-41 (617)
617-9 (654) 14-12 (538)1-1 (500)
0-2 (000)
—18-13 (581) 15-15 (500) —28-18 (609)
22-22 (500)
64-41 (610) 51-51 (500)
713-15 (464) 9-19 (321) —3-0 (1000)
0-2 (000)
22-9 (710) 16-15 (516) —32-21 (604)
13-13 (500)
70-45 (609) 38-49 (437)
Total82-56 (594) 72-66 (522)44-5 (898) 28-22 (560)24-8 (750) 18-13 (581)98-47 (676) 80-64 (556)35-9 (795) 20-23 (465)187-105 (640) 134-117 (534)470-230 (671) 352-305 (536)

…..

This will be our last week posting the Conference Ranking table during the Evaluation. Because nearly every game is a conference game now, there will be little change in the rankings, and teams with low outside-of-conference records have their collective winning percentages increase with in-house games while the more successful conferences have theirs lowered by the guaranteed 500 wpct of a conference game. We will continue to have a special end of month Conference Comparison post for a more accurate listing. Here is the “final” weekly cut.

W% RankFBSFCS
1Independents (9-4/692) 0 CG (692)Ivy League (25-15/625) 8 CG (708)
2SEC (71-35/670) 33 CG (950)Missouri Valley (37-29/561) 16 CG (618)
3B12 (65-33/663) 25 CG (833)MEAC (23-19/548) 0 CG (548)
4Big Ten (74-43/632) 32 CG (792)UAC (30-27/526) 10 CG (541)
5ACC (66-44/600) 32 CG (739)SWAC (43-43/500) 23 CG (500)
6American (48-44/522) 20 CG (538)Big Sky (46-51/474) 32 CG (424)
7Sun Belt (45-45/500) 18 CG (500)SoCon (34-38/472) 19 CG (441)
8Mountain West (32-34/485) 16 CG (471)Pioneer League (36-41/468) 19 CG (436)
9Pac 12 (25-27/481) 10 CG (469)Southland (33-38/465) 21 CG (414)
10MAC (42-50/457) 21 CG (420)CAA (42-53/442) 24 CG (383)
11Conference USA (27-35/435) 11 CG (400)Patriot League (30-39/435) 20 CG (345)
12—Big South/Ohio Valley (21-35/375) 9 CG (316)
13—Northeast (17-38/309) 9 CG (216)
14—FCS Indies (3-11/214) 0 CG (214)

…..

One thing we are proud of and will continue to produce and publish as long as we are able, is the Top 266 (or whatever the number increases to in the future). While our prediction model is flawed (like all models) and may not even be useful (although some models are), we stand behind our ranking algorithms 100%. Readers may not like where their teams are placed (although we don’t actually “place” them) relative to other teams, but each team is fairly assessed (meaning the same set of rules apply to each of them). We heard about Alabama being ranked above Georgia last week (this week as well) and it has everything to do with schedules. Georgia’s opponents thus far this year are just 23-24 (489) and they’ve played 5 conference games already – no opponent (or future opponent) has clinched a bowl game yet. That 489 percentage is 2nd to last behind only Tennessee for weakest SEC schedule thus far. The collective Core 4 is 282-131 (683), and the SEC is 71-35 (670), for comparison. Alabama’s opponents are 31-15 (674), which is 3rd most difficult in the conference, and have faced 3 teams already bowl eligible, losing to Georgia and Tennessee and beating Kentucky. If we aren’t taking into consideration strength of schedule (SOS), what are we trying to understand? Indiana (35th in SOS right now), Georgia (59th), and Notre Dame (34th) all took losses yesterday, in part, because they either had actual competition (Notre Dame) or they had back-to-back “difficult” games (Indiana and Georgia). Either way, the teams were exposed. They are good, but the GCR has no emotion and looks at each game played so far as happening “now.” Past opponents who continue to lose negativity impact SOS. We fully believe each of the teams mentioned will make the playoffs (unless Alabama slips up again), but the best teams should overcome obstacles such as close games, bad calls, or the team just not 100%.

…..

For the first time this season, we have a repeat top dog, Miami FL holds on to #1 for the second straight week and 3rd overall. We do have a new bottom dweller as Murray St has replaced Wagner as #266. Here are all 266 for your viewing pleasure. That’s it for today. Tune in Tuesday for more Conference USA mid-week action. Thank you for reading and sharing with others. Please send us comments about today’s post and editorials as well as suggestions for improvement. We’d love to provide the best, most accurate, and useful content possible, JoJo and G.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1Miami FLACC6048.514.014.243100.00
2UCLAB106035.516.213.26194.99
3Notre DameND6141.113.413.10494.20
4Texas TechB126037.817.712.62991.75
5Ohio StB106139.313.412.54791.33
6BYUB126033.515.212.29290.07
7UtahB126040.214.812.031088.76
8AlabamaSEC5239.321.412.031188.72
9Wake ForestACC6137.419.411.78687.45
10MississippiSEC5137.523.811.67586.91
11GeorgiaSEC6143.015.911.591286.51
12IndianaB106136.612.911.561786.33
13HoustonB126139.321.011.421385.62
14ArizonaB125135.719.011.282584.92
15TennesseeSEC6133.414.711.041483.68
16LSUSEC5240.415.910.911883.04
17James MadisonSUN7042.916.010.655281.71
18NorthwesternB105133.517.010.642481.64
19Southern CalB106136.425.110.331580.09
20IowaB105131.014.59.972078.24
21KentuckySEC6132.725.99.97878.23
22NebraskaB105235.615.49.873377.74
23MissouriSEC5231.119.69.722776.98
24TexasSEC4230.217.89.701676.85
25OregonB104237.020.79.602176.35
26SMUACC5132.721.39.592876.34
27Oklahoma StB124237.223.79.483175.76
28North Dakota StMWC6129.411.39.396875.28
29AuburnSEC4226.821.89.352375.07
30LibertyUSA5131.215.39.287674.76
31Boise StPAC5135.022.39.185474.21
32New MexicoMWC5139.710.59.167774.13
33WisconsinB104227.516.79.033273.45
34FloridaSEC5239.628.38.991973.25
35Mississippi StSEC4232.528.58.912272.83
36Virginia TechACC5237.121.18.884172.71
37PittsburghACC5232.916.48.853472.56
38North CarolinaACC4223.519.28.572671.12
39BaylorB124230.014.78.473770.63
40Oregon StPAC5242.723.18.376570.09
41CincinnatiB124235.226.88.333569.90
42MichiganB104222.716.28.273069.59
43LouisvilleACC4338.727.48.203869.26
44DukeACC4231.716.08.114268.78
45ClemsonACC4222.321.57.962968.00
46Texas A&MSEC4329.417.17.924067.81
47Air ForceMWC5130.819.77.877167.54
48MemphisAAC5235.422.37.757966.95
49Kansas StB124235.520.07.744366.91
50South CarolinaSEC3337.725.57.704466.69
51LouisianaSUN5230.019.37.667366.47
52UTSAAAC6132.327.07.536365.80
53UCFB123331.721.77.295064.59
54OklahomaSEC3321.318.27.253664.41
55VirginiaACC4330.019.77.234864.31
56OhioMAC5230.422.17.237564.28
57Iowa StB123329.721.77.194664.10
58WashingtonB104327.922.77.184964.04
59South FloridaAAC5226.615.17.189064.03
60MinnesotaB104228.821.87.113963.68
61TCUB123324.012.27.005163.14
62Georgia StSUN4236.524.06.949462.82
63ToledoMAC5236.323.66.928762.73
64North TexasAAC4242.229.26.797862.08
65W MichiganMAC5225.016.96.776961.95
66Penn StB103428.718.96.715561.63
67Fresno StPAC4327.620.96.698461.54
68Florida StACC3431.627.96.685661.52
69South AlabamaSUN4238.834.56.588061.02
70ArmyAAC4234.820.06.568860.87
71Boston CollegeACC3320.323.06.405360.07
72Jax StUSA5227.322.76.398660.03
73UNLVMWC4324.123.76.238259.23
74West VirginiaB124337.634.06.204559.08
75FAUAAC4235.031.56.179158.93
76LA TechSUN4233.324.56.177058.89
77IllinoisB103331.827.86.106258.54
78PurdueB103431.332.36.034758.17
79UMASSMAC4328.019.15.8211757.14
80ArkansasSEC3421.026.75.825957.13
81TulsaAAC4329.022.45.809657.02
82NC StACC3333.027.75.546055.70
83Arizona StB123331.332.05.506455.51
84Montana StSKY6139.718.65.4515155.24
85App StSUN4229.521.85.419855.03
86FIUUSA3319.714.75.3911254.94
87San Jose StMWC4321.421.75.3010154.49
88StanfordACC3418.336.65.096153.40
89WyomingMWC4318.320.95.0510453.22
90Miami OHMAC4326.925.65.059753.20
91Texas StPAC3340.032.25.038953.12
92BuffaloMAC4321.425.64.949952.65
93UABAAC4323.324.64.9110252.49
94TulaneAAC3320.521.74.868352.22
95KansasB122432.024.04.858152.17
96VanderbiltSEC3423.629.74.765851.72
97UCONNIND3335.725.24.7611951.72
98Michigan StB102521.325.44.586750.83
99Steph F AustinSLAN7040.913.04.5516450.67
100TroySUN3324.325.54.5210950.48
101TarletonUAC7040.925.04.4815650.29
102SyracuseACC2431.725.74.489550.28
103ColoradoB122419.525.74.476650.23
104CaliforniaACC3423.927.74.465750.21
105Georgia TechACC2426.727.24.457250.15
106East CarolinaAAC3323.523.84.4310550.04
107Ga SouthernSUN3424.423.04.259349.11
108NevadaMWC2426.023.54.2512649.11
109LehighPAT6134.317.04.0420248.06
110C MichiganMAC3416.625.63.9810047.77
111NavyAAC2428.225.83.9512247.58
112Mid TennUSA3322.828.33.9211447.43
113W KentuckyUSA3421.330.63.9110647.38
114E MichiganMAC4421.525.93.8810747.26
115HarvardIVY5027.214.03.8617547.12
116RutgersB102431.231.83.827446.95
117MarylandB102528.333.33.818546.89
118Arkansas StSUN3427.426.63.7311546.48
119MarshallSUN3322.033.73.6410846.03
120San Diego StPAC3423.333.33.519245.35
121PrincetonIVY4123.010.23.4818845.23
122Utah StPAC2414.523.53.3311044.46
123TN TechSoCon6134.022.73.0219042.89
124Idaho StSKY4332.722.62.9620842.58
125South DakotaMFC6239.124.42.8615042.03
126Illinois StMFC5237.717.12.7517641.48
127Alabama A&MSWAC6240.120.02.6121540.76
128Bowling GreenMAC2518.029.62.4212039.79
129DelawareUSA2422.826.82.3912439.65
130Missouri StUSA2422.230.52.3611839.51
131Austin PeayUAC6234.818.42.2717239.04
132Youngstown StMFC6239.123.12.2613939.01
133CoastalSUN2526.125.92.2512538.96
134New Mexico StUSA2423.725.72.2212738.77
135South Dakota StMFC5236.416.72.1814638.58
136Kent StMAC2512.032.02.1311138.34
137Colorado StPAC2435.743.22.0810338.08
138North DakotaMFC6236.625.11.9414137.39
139DaytonPFL5131.218.01.9424537.38
140Old DominionSUN2517.726.91.9411637.36
141ChattanoogaSoCon4320.012.61.8824137.08
142AlbanyCAA4325.118.91.8419236.87
143Ball StMAC2520.337.91.7411336.33
144Kennesaw StUSA1522.323.51.6913436.10
145TempleAAC2525.728.01.6912836.10
146Jackson StSWAC6137.721.71.6719735.97
147MercerSoCon6230.617.11.6316335.80
148CampbellCAA6132.627.61.5214035.25
149MontanaSKY5337.828.01.4917435.10
150SC StMEAC5243.619.11.4921935.08
151ColgatePAT4321.616.01.4818435.05
152CornellIVY3231.427.61.4522734.85
153LamarSLAN5230.124.31.4315334.78
154MaristPFL4326.019.61.3225834.20
155ButlerPFL5233.321.61.2225233.72
156YaleIVY3231.027.61.1823933.49
157Sam HoustonUSA1519.524.51.1513333.33
158St ThomasPFL5237.129.11.1116533.15
159WoffordSoCon5326.023.11.0220332.69
160Rhode IslandCAA4325.023.70.9522532.32
161ColumbiaIVY4127.228.20.9422032.27
162BrownIVY2315.013.20.8624631.84
163BryantCAA5220.022.00.8316731.69
164N ArizonaSKY6231.630.10.8014531.56
165RiceAAC1617.029.00.7612931.35
166Alabama StSWAC4325.717.90.7121431.10
167West FloridaUAC4226.023.00.6222230.63
168SELASLAN4328.428.30.5717730.41
169MonmouthCAA5228.731.40.5516930.31
170Washington StPAC1620.127.10.5112330.08
171HawaiiMWC1615.725.00.5013130.02
172AkronMAC1618.932.40.4212129.61
173PennIVY2317.617.80.3924729.50
174ValparaisoPFL3427.423.70.3826029.42
175PresbyterianPFL4330.140.60.3625329.33
176E Tenn StSoCon5232.725.00.2814428.93
177Stony BrookCAA4333.732.30.2721128.84
178North AlabamaUAC4324.322.60.2317128.64
179Weber StSKY5336.334.10.2118028.53
180Southern MissSUN1524.232.70.1313628.13
181CharlotteAAC1619.140.60.0613227.77
182DartmouthIVY2319.222.80.0425427.69
183RichmondPAT5222.027.0-0.0715427.14
184DrakePFL2525.034.4-0.1126226.91
185S UtahSKY3432.333.4-0.1320026.84
186SEMOBSOV4325.025.6-0.1716626.61
187Morgan StMEAC5228.927.1-0.3115525.92
188Gardner WebbBSOV2619.622.5-0.3220925.88
189Cal PolySKY4428.130.0-0.3422325.77
190San DiegoPFL3428.637.3-0.4125625.42
191Abilene ChrUAC4421.925.3-0.4215225.37
192N ColoradoSKY3523.625.5-0.4223525.36
193UC DavisSKY4331.934.6-0.4315825.30
194W CarolinaSoCon3431.631.4-0.4816025.04
195ElonCAA4423.419.5-0.5022424.95
196Incarnate WordSLAN3435.131.4-0.6221324.33
197N IllinoisMWC0614.235.7-0.6413524.21
198Sacred HeartCAA3420.124.3-0.7323223.77
199Robert MorrisNEC3424.325.3-0.8326123.28
200Rio GrandeSLAN3520.125.4-0.9122122.87
201Sacramento StMAC1615.032.7-0.9213822.82
202UTEPMWC1615.137.3-0.9213022.78
203BethuneSWAC4328.429.1-0.9619422.61
204Delaware StMEAC4323.425.3-0.9620522.59
205C ConnecticutNEC3333.237.5-0.9719122.52
206GeorgetownPAT2419.025.8-0.9825022.52
207Ark Pine BluffSWAC3332.831.3-0.9816222.50
208N IowaMFC3325.729.3-1.0114722.34
209Alcorn StSWAC4441.937.0-1.0223722.28
210VillanovaPAT3425.129.9-1.1118621.82
211Houston ChrSLAN4331.625.4-1.1615921.59
212New HavenNEC2514.627.1-1.1825721.49
213NC A&TCAA3520.329.5-1.2423321.17
214Norfolk StMEAC4335.323.4-1.2823120.96
215S IllinoisMFC3522.927.5-1.3021620.88
216W IllinoisBSOV3431.625.3-1.3619520.58
217ULMSUN0620.041.2-1.4213720.24
218East TexasSLAN2518.330.0-1.4924319.90
219DavidsonPFL3523.937.5-1.5526419.59
220LafayettePAT2422.531.7-1.6524219.10
221GramblingSWAC4336.739.3-1.6818318.92
222StonehillNEC2516.923.0-1.7020618.83
223Prairie ViewSWAC3524.830.8-1.7521818.59
224E KentuckyUAC2518.631.0-1.7523018.56
225SamfordSoCon1618.625.6-1.7925118.36
226FurmanSoCon2516.422.4-1.8219918.20
227Holy CrossPAT2520.132.4-1.8322918.19
228IdahoSKY2529.739.3-1.8616818.00
229NC CentralMEAC2523.030.1-1.8724417.94
230UT MartinBSOV3423.629.9-1.9214917.70
231E IllinoisBSOV2517.733.3-2.0721016.94
232McNeeseSLAN3425.428.6-2.0817816.91
233MS ValleySWAC3517.834.1-2.0924916.84
234Indiana StMFC2527.737.3-2.1219816.68
235Chicago StFCSIND1626.638.0-2.1626316.50
236Morehead StPFL1626.645.0-2.2026516.30
237Chrls SoBSOV3423.922.7-2.2114816.26
238MerrimackFCSIND2517.030.4-2.2124816.23
239E WashingtonSKY2627.038.1-2.2920715.84
240C ArkansasUAC2524.930.9-2.3220115.66
241TN StBSOV2519.033.0-2.3617915.46
242DuquesneNEC2416.829.3-2.4017015.27
243StetsonPFL1622.143.9-2.4026615.27
244SouthernSWAC3423.134.7-2.4216115.19
245LindenwoodBSOV2419.330.2-2.7119313.71
246Long IslandNEC3514.626.9-2.8017313.22
247New HampshireCAA2619.634.4-2.9023412.74
248BucknellPAT1610.325.0-2.9323612.57
249William & MaryPAT3420.337.1-2.9519612.46
250Florida A&MSWAC2518.934.0-2.9618212.41
251MaineCAA1614.428.9-3.0121712.14
252CitadelSoCon2519.334.6-3.0118112.14
253HowardMEAC3419.631.3-3.1114311.66
254FordhamPAT2615.831.4-3.1220411.61
255TX SouthernSWAC1525.046.7-3.682388.74
256Nwestern StSLAN0719.046.7-3.732558.51
257TowsonCAA0822.534.8-3.742268.46
258Portland StSKY2523.744.0-3.851427.91
259West GeorgiaUAC1617.631.3-4.252405.86
260HamptonCAA1617.634.4-4.422284.99
261NichollsSLAN2514.041.3-4.721873.47
262VMISoCon079.141.7-4.752593.30
263MercyhurstNEC1621.643.7-4.811853.02
264Utah TechSKY0714.942.9-4.882122.63
265WagnerNEC1612.036.9-5.151571.26
266Murray StMFC1615.641.7-5.401890.00

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