Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college sports fans, to episode 715 or the beginning of Week 8. We start with three games today, two from Conference USA and one from the Sun Belt. If you can, check out the games for at least a little while tonight. It’s generally the only time these guys get to play on channels that don’t end in a plus sign.
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Both of the C-USA games are at 7:00 (all times Eastern), so let’s talk about the Missouri St Bears (2-4/130) head to the Delaware Blue Hens (2-4/129) in what appears by looking at the GCR rankings, to be a very close game. Let’s break it down a little more. When the Bears are driving, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 85 (181st out of 266). That means they only score 8.5 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a DEL Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 94 (170th) which means they allow 10.0 points for every 9.4 points their opponents normally score. A slight advantage to Delaware. Looking at it the other way, the Blue Hens OER is 92 (162nd) and will face a DER of just 80 (219th) from MOST. Also, a slight advantage to Delaware. Vegas has DEL-2.5, which is less than the 3.5 that is a consistent home field advantage value. The GCR has DEL-5.5 (-4.0 in test mode), so we calculate the Blue Hens will win and cover. You can catch this game on ESPNU.
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At the same time, significantly south, the Mid Tenn Blue Raiders (3-3/112) invade the FIU Panthers (3-3/86). MTSU brings an OER of a poor 79 (203rd) and second worst in the division. They face a very strong Panther DER of 169 (21st). This does not bode well for the Raiders. FIU won’t have to score much, it seems, and that works out well because FIU brings an OER of just 80 (202nd) against a Mid Tenn DER of 86 (199th) – almost a wash. Vegas thinks FIU wins fairly easily at -10.5 and the GCR agrees with the win. We are posting Mid Tenn to cover, however, as the current algorithm sees FIU-10.0. The test calc has FIU-11.0 and, if we were using this metric, FIU would cover. You can catch this game on CBS Sports.
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Our final game tonight, at 7:30 on ESPN2, is a clash of the Sun Belt as the Marshall Thundering Herd (3-3/119) hosts South Alabama Jaguars (4-2/69). When MARS is driving, they bring an underachieving OER of 93 (155th) and face a porous Jaguar DER of 77 (231st). However, SALA has an outstanding OER of 141 (31st) vs an almost as bad Herd DER of 80 (218th). Vegas sees SALA-2.5 on the road and the GCR agrees but doesn’t see the game that close (current SALA-8.0 and test SALA-11.0).
| Time (ET) | Games of October 20th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Missouri St (2-4/130) at Delaware (2-4/129) | USA | DEL -2.5 | DEL | DEL | ESPNU |
| 7:00 | Mid Tenn (3-3/112) at FIU (3-3/86) | USA | FIU -10.5 | FIU | MTSU | CBS Sports |
| 7:30 | South Alabama (4-2/69) at Marshall (3-3/119) | SUN | SALA -2.5 | SALA | SALA | ESPN2 |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a single game, but what should be a great one when James Madison travels to the always dangerous Boone, NC, to face App St. JoJo has a very diverse set of interests and wanted to make sure that he Dancing with the Stars side was thrilled when the boyfriend of one of the professional dancers on that show scored a TD for BYU in their win over Notre Dame. Thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others. We’ll see you tomorrow, JoJo and G.
