Welcome back, college sports fans. What a crazy Women’s Final Four. First, and most important, congratulations to South Carolina and UCLA who won defensive-focused games to cement their spots in Sunday’s Championship game. Texas had no answer for Lauren Betts and the UCLA Bruins who held their best opponent to just 6 points on 3-23 shooting. UCONN, after a fast start, could not keep up with the pace of South Carolina and were forced out of their game. UCONN head coach Gene Auriemma, college basketball’s all-time winningest coach, showed his frustration multiple times. First, during a break between the third and fourth quarter, he not only accused the referees of favoring South Carolina on foul calls, but he also called out SCAR’s head coach Dawn Staley for the way she communicates with the officiating crew, implying a “double-standard.” He specifically accused South Carolina players of ripping National Player of the Year Sarah Strong’s jersey when video (and her own post-game interview) indicated she tore the jersey herself, accidentally, out of frustration. While South Carolina was only called for 8 fouls during the game compared to UCONN’s 17, it is important to note that of UCONN’s 61 shots taken, 21 were from 3-point range which lessens the likelihood of a foul. Of South Carolina’s 56 shots, 50 were from 2-point range increasing the likelihood of a foul. SCAR is usually a points-in-the-paint kind of team and last night was no exception.
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When SCAR had the game won, they purposefully took a shot-clock violation with just 0.8 seconds remaining. The head coaches met at midcourt prior to UCONN’s perfunctory throw in when Geno made some comments to Dawn. Tempers quickly flew to a screaming match. While neither coach is saying a lot about what was said, there is a little evidence that it was about a “traditional” handshake before the game, during introductions, by the head coaches. Dawn had already walked down the UCONN bench shaking the hand of every staff member, including Geno, prior to introductions. He expressed the oversight of protocol during his press conference but failed to mention that he walked off the court following the screaming match without shaking the hands of SCAR’s players and staff. If protocol was his concern, he broke a much more universally accepted protocol for basic sportsmanship. We do not think that’s what the true issue was. Geno complained that the rims and new balls in the Fort Worth regional games were negatively impacting his team’s shooting.
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Years ago, before creating the GCR, G (aka I) would play computer games about college football. One game had a 32-team playoff, recruiting, staff management, etc. I played the game as designed for many game seasons and it was a fairly accurate depiction of FBS football. Teams got better or worse with a few elite teams who always seemed to make the playoffs and who won every few seasons. Other teams would ebb and flow enduring difficult years and making the occasional playoff. I decided to take a team and make them super-elite, a team that never lost. I discovered that if you saved the game just before the engine played the next one, if my team suffered a defeat, I could just restart the program, then replay the game until my team won. I did that until my team won over 200 straight games – over 10 seasons. What happened is that the rest of the teams in my conference faded substantially. After three or four seasons, I rarely had to restart in order to get the win. The conference which normally would have at least five teams in the playoffs, would no longer have more than one outside of my top-seeded team.
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Why is that important. UCONN has been in 25 Final Fours since the early 1990s. If they lose a conference game, it is news. It is exactly the scenario I simulated years ago. This season, UCONN is now 38-1. Villanova was 25-8. No other Big East Team won 20 games. Five of the eleven teams had losing records. No team other than UCONN was ranked at the end of the season. For comparison, the SEC (which has Texas as this season’s champions along with five teams in the AP Top 10 and eight in the Top 25) had two teams with 30+ wins, four additional teams with at least 25, and three more with at least 20 – 9 of the 16 teams won 20 games. Only two teams had losing records. UCONN’s excellence, and I’m taking nothing away from what they have accomplished, has harmed the Big East. Prior to South Carolina, the best team UCONN played was Michigan (28-7) – a game in which they won by 3 points. The played Louisville (29-8) winning by 13, Southern Cal (18-14) winning by 28, and Iowa (27-7) winning by 26, all ranked teams at the time of the game. In February they added a flailing Tennessee (16-14), winning by 30, which sparked an 2-9 finish for the Vols. That’s it. No ranked conference games. None. Their Strength of Schedule (SOS) was so low for a Final Four team (61st out of 363), they moved up 10 spots after last night’s games. Note: the other Final Four teams are all in the top 10 in SOS. All of this to say, we believe the ridiculous success of UCONN playing in a conference that has no other teams playing FBS football (generally a money-producer) has lowered the conference to less than a Power Conference.
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So why did Geno lose it? I think he knew his 38-0 team was not as good as previous seasons. Elite? Yes. Best in the nation? No. He was beginning to be exposed in Fort Worth so blamed the facilities. He did not lose his cool last night until he knew he was being outplayed and outcoached. The difference between elite and championship caliber, as thin as that can be, was being exposed. The best thing that can happen to the Big East is for UCONN to have a few years of struggle so that the other teams can recruit better players who believe they have a real shot at winning the conference. In true power conferences (e.g., the Big Ten or the SEC), money from football can support teams during rebuilding. They can pay the money for top-flight coaches and staff. They can bring in the NIL to attract the best freshmen and transfers. They can believe they are going to be able to beat the UCLAs or Texas’s or LSUs or Southern Cals of the world one of these days. The Big East cannot. Because of that, UCONN can breeze through a mid-major conference schedule with ease. This year they had never been down more than 6 points at any time until last night. They had no frame of reference on how to recover. And they lost. Geno showed what a sore loser (and probably winner as well) he really is last night. He showed his frustration because his team was not the best on the floor last night. He was unsportsmanlike because he had no answers. Taking nothing away from his career, there comes a time when everyone has to hang them up. His outbursts in this tournament demonstrate that the game may be passing him by. There are many athletes and coaches who try to stay longer than they should. Usually, it does not end well. While 38-1 is a masterful season, Geno demonstrated on multiple occasions that he knew it was somewhat inflated. He knew that this team wasn’t as good as the teams with Breanna or Paige or (the list is long).
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We did not want to write about what happened between coaches, but we felt compelled to. But today is about some really important games in their own rights. While Vegas picked UCONN and Texas to win yesterday, the GCR had South Carolina and UCONN. That 2-0 moved the Women’s record to 204-78 (.723) with two games to go. The Men are starting today at 190-92 (.673) with 4 games today and 7 remaining overall. The total record is 394-170 (.699) with 9 games to play.
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There is only one game today for the Women and it is the NIT Final. Illinois St (24-13/143) is taking on Marshall (27-9/43) at 3:00 (all times Eastern). While the GCR is picking Marshall, Illinois St has upset teams to get here on a regular basis just as their football brethren did in the FCS playoffs (four true road wins). The Redbirds and Thundering Herd will meet in Huntington West Virginia. Can they pull off another Road miracle? Here are the particulars:
| Tour/Round | Time | April 4th Women’s Games (All Times Eastern) | Conf | Seeds | Pred |
| NIT/FINAL | 3:00 | Illinois St (24-13/143) / Marshall (27-9/43) | MVC/SUN | U/U | MARS |
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The College Basketball Crown has its semifinals today, but the main event is the Men’s Final Four. Here is the breakdown of those games.
| Team (Seed) | Season Data | (Seed) Opponents (Score) | Point Differential |
| Arizona (1) | Record: 36-2 Score Rank: 1 RPIF Rank: 1 SOS Rank: 7 | (16) Long Island (92-58) (9) Utah St (78-66) (4) Arkansas (109-88) (2) Purdue (79-64) | Total: 82 Per Game: 20.50 Avg Seed: 7.75 |
| Michigan (1) | Record: 35-3 Score Rank: 2 RPIF Rank: 2 SOS Rank: 6 | (16) Howard (101-80) (9) St Louis (95-72) (4) Alabama (90-77) (6) Tennessee (95-62) | Total: 84 Per Game: 21.00 Avg Seed: 8.75 |
| UCONN (2) | Record: 33-5 Score Rank: 4 RPIF Rank: 5 SOS Rank: 25 | (15) Furman (82-71) (7) UCLA (73-57) (3) Michigan St (67-63) (1) Duke (73-72) | Total: 31 Per Game: 7.75 Avg Seed: 6.50 |
| Illinois (3) | Record: 28-8 Score Rank: 9 RPIF Rank: 7 SOS Rank: 13 | (14) Penn (105-70) (11) VCU (76-55) (2) Houston (65-55) (9) Iowa (71-59) | Total: 77 Per Game: 19.25 Avg Seed: 9.00 |
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The best two teams are playing each other before the winner plays the mini-Cinderella. Here are the full Men’s slate for today.
| Tour/Round | Time | April 4th Men’s Games (All Times Eastern) | Conf | Seeds | Pred |
| CBC/SF | 1:30 | Oklahoma (20-15/101) / Baylor (17-16/109) | SEC/B12 | U/U | NPre |
| CBC/SF | 4:00 | West Virginia (19-14/98) / Creighton (16-17/142) | B12/BEast | U/U | WVU |
| NCAA/FF | 6:09 | Illinois (28-8/9) / UCONN (33-5/4) | B10/BEast | 3/2 | UCON |
| NCAA/FF | 8:49 | Michigan (35-3/2) / Arizona (36-2/1) | B10/B12 | 1/1 | ARIZ |
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That’s it for today. We welcome comments or feedback about any of the work we do, and we would especially enjoy hearing your thoughts about the “confrontation.” Thank you for reading and sharing with others, JoJo and G.
