Welcome back, college sports fans. Yesterday, there were four Men’s games (CBC Quarterfinals and NIT Semifinals). We were just 2-2 (.500) missing Tulsa over New Mexico (NIT) and West Virginia over Stanford (CBC). That brings the Men’s total to 190-92 (.674) and the overall record to 390-170 (.696). With just 14 games left, it is still possible to reach 400 total correct predictions, but we need to step up our game. It is also possible to achieve a .700 winning pct which would require near perfection. We also expect a few games that we will not be able to predict, so those milestones may be out of reach already. Either way, this is our first year predicting these games, so we will accept the record and work to improve it for next season. It is a little interesting that, although the formulae are different, both basketball and football predictions are more accurate at the top of the rankings. For example, in football, the FBS (major conferences) predictions are always more accurate than FCS (minor or mid-major conferences) predictions. Likewise, we are seeing that the GCR tends to do a little better in the NCAA tournament than the NIT, WNIT, WBIT, and CBC. This could be a scaling issue that we can work on in the offseason.
…..
Today, we only have two games on the schedule, but what a duo! The Women’s Final Four is populated with all 1-seeds for the 5th time in history AND is the same foursome in back-to-back seasons for the 2nd time. The seeding is different, however. Last season, UCONN beat UCLA before earning the title by besting South Carolina who had taken down Texas. None of the three games were close games. This season, all four teams burned through the first two weekends easily. South Carolina started slowly against TCU falling behind 10-2 before blowing them out by 26 and UCLA “edged” Michigan by only 12 points. Otherwise, these teams have been flawless. Texas broke an SEC record by outscoring their first four opponents by a combined 142 points only to have SCAR take that record two hours later with 161 points. Here is a breakout, in overall seed order.
| Team | Season Data | (Seed) Opponents (Score) | Point Differential |
| UCONN | Record: 38-0 Score Rank: 4 RPIF Rank: 4 SOS Rank: 62 | (16) UTSA (90-52) (9) Syracuse (98-52) (4) North Carolina (63-42) (6) Notre Dame (70-52) | Total: 118 Per Game: 29.50 Avg Seed: 8.75 |
| UCLA | Record: 35-1 Score Rank: 1 RPIF Rank: 1 SOS Rank: 8 | (16) CA Baptist (96-43) (8) Oklahoma St (87-68) (4) Minnesota (80-56) (3) Duke (70-58) | Total: 108 Per Game: 27.00 Avg Seed: 7.75 |
| Texas | Record: 35-3 Score Rank: 2 RPIF Rank: 2 SOS Rank: 5 | (16) Missouri St (87-45) (8) Oregon (100-58) (5) Kentucky (76-54) (2) Michigan (77-41) | Total: 142 Per Game: 35.50 Avg Seed: 7.75 |
| South Carolina | Record: 35-3 Score Rank: 3 RPIF Rank: 3 SOS Rank: 9 | (16) Southern (103-34) (9) Southern Cal (101-61) (4) Oklahoma (94-68) (3) TCU (78-52) | Total: 161 Per Game: 40.25 Avg Seed: 8.00 |
…..
While blowouts by these teams have been common, the table above shows there is no single over-dominant team. UCLA is ranked number 1 in the GCR, but had the lowest average margin of victory, UCONN is undefeated, but plays in the relatively weak Big East Conference (the Ivy League has a higher mean Score), South Carolina has been the most dominant in the Tournament, but lost to Texas twice this season, and Texas not only beat the Gamecocks, but also gave UCLA their only loss, but the Longhorns lost to Vanderbilt and LSU in addition to South Carolina (yes, if they meet in the Championship, it will be the fourth time this season and the eighth in the last two seasons). The GCR is predicting both of the games tonight to be very close – one-possession close. Here are the predictions:
| Tour/ Round | Time | April 3rd Women’s Games (All Times Eastern) | Conf | Seeds | Pred |
| NCAA/FF | 7:00 | South Carolina (35-3/3) / UCONN (38-0/4) | SEC/BEast | 1/1 | SCAR |
| NCAA/FF | 9:30 | Texas (35-3/2) / UCLA (35-1/1) | SEC/B10 | 1/1 | UCLA |
…..
That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for 5 games including the Men’s Final Four breakdown and the Women’s NIT final (Illinois St/Marshall). Thank you for reading and sharing with others, JoJo and G.
