Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 710 which is all about Conference USA. Last night, Mid Tenn (3-3/112) evened their record by the Vegas upset win over Delaware (2-4/126), 33-30. The game had 6 lead changes with the final go-ahead score with just 3:06 remaining. Watching this game, the two teams were pretty evenly matched – hope some of you took the time to watch it. Our algorithm correctly selected the Blue Raiders so 1-0 straight up/1-0 against the spread after a single game. FIU (3-3/89) did not cooperate for a perfect first night of the week by losing 27-24 to Jax St (5-2/77) against the algorithm, while the Gamecocks covered -2.5. The game-winning field goal came with just 47 ticks left and was the only 4th quarter score. Another close game worthy of watching. We had both games on and will tonight as well. But we missed the second game, so begin the week 1-1/1-1.
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Our first game tonight, with a 7:30 (all times Eastern) start, we have the Owls of Kennesaw St (1-4/132) invade the Missouri St Bears (1-4/150). Both of these teams were FCS schools just a couple of years ago. Both have had some success at the FBS level, but not so much this season. When the Owl take the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 95 (151st out of 266 teams). The OER is a GCR metric that calculates what an offense does compared to other teams that play common opponents. So, we read the 95 as KNST scores 9.5 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. It makes sense, we hope, that we also have a metric to calculate what a defense does compared to other teams that play common opponents. The Bears Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) is 77 (232nd), which is not very good. The give up 10.0 points for every 7.7 their opponents normally score. Sadly for MOST, their OER is also not strong, at 75 (215th) while Kennesaw St’s DER is a solid 127 (74th). Vegas has KNST-2.5 and the GCR sees that defense as too strong for Missouri St: the Owls to win and cover. Watch this game on CBS Sports.
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Our final C-USA game of the week is the W Kentucky Hilltoppers (2-4/111) at the Sam Houston Bearkats (1-4/130). These teams have both had some troubles this season and need this game to get back on track. WKY brings an OER of 89 (167th) and will face a Bearkats DER of 105 (132nd). On the flip side, SHOU has an OER of 97 (144th) and will try to exploit a Hilltopper DER of 84 (203rd). Sam Houston jumped up from the FCS a couple of years ago and haven’t yet found their place. Vegas has WKY-1.5 on the road and the GCR agrees although the algorithm has WKY at exactly 1.5 points. Watch this game at 8:00 on ESPN.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 14th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:30 | Kennesaw St (1-4/132) at Missouri St (1-4/150) | USA | KNST -2.5 | KNST | KNST | CBS Sports |
| 8:00 | W Kentucky (2-4/111) at Sam Houston (1-4/130) | USA | WKY -1.5 | WKY | WKY | ESPN |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for our three Thursday trysts. Until then, we thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), making suggestions and comments (it’s how we improve our content), and, especially, for sharing with others (it’s how we grow), JoJo and G.
