Welcome back, college sports fans, to episode 709 which is about the two Conference USA games tonight. We’ll get to them, but first we have new realignment news. Or is it a forever continuation of realignment? James Madison announced that they plan to leave the Sun Belt to join the American Conference. At first, it seems they are just shifting from one Group of 6 to another, but there are two solid reasons. 1) the annual payout per team is higher in the American than the Sun Belt by a significant margin, and 2) better bowl games. A little history:
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Madison College went coed in 1967 and started their football program on October 7, 1972, against the Shepherd College JV squad – they were winless that first season (0-4-1). By 1975, they showed the future they had by going undefeated (9-0-1) and winning the Virginia College Athletic Association championship – a Division III league. In 1980, they jumped to what was then known as Division I-AA (now FCS) and played as an independent until joining the Yankee Conference which later became the Atlantic 10 winning the conference in 1999 and 2004 (FCS National Champions) as well as winning a division in 1994 and 2006. In 2007, they jumped to a stronger conference (pattern?) in the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) which has since been renamed the Coastal Athletic Association. They won CAA championships in 2008, 2015, 2016 (FCS National Champions), 2017, 2019, and 2021 as well as a CAA South division title in 2020. Curt Cignetti, now with Indiana, was their head coach from 2019-2023, and he brought them to the FBS by joining the Sun Belt in 2022. They won the Sun Belt in 2025 and earned the conference’s first ever Playoff spot before losing to Oregon 51-34 and finishing 12-2. They appeared in their first bowl game in 2023 losing to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl 31-21 and won their first in 2024 by taking down W Kentucky 27-17 in the Boca Raton Bowl. Their all-time record is an impressive 395-226-4 (635).
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The Sun Belt, the only FBS conference that still has divisions, just lost Texas St to the Pac 12 which temporarily dropped them to 13 teams until they brought LA Tech over from Conference USA. Now they will be at an odd number again which makes divisional scheduling difficult. They will likely try to add a team, but which one and what will that do, domino-wise? Liberty petitioned to join a few years ago but was denied (they had been members before). They also may be a better fit for the American. Jax St just joined the FBS a couple of years ago and show promise as a good program. By 2028, Delaware will show which direction they are going to go as a program as well. Let’s suppose Liberty moves to the AAC and either JXST or DEL take the Sun Belt plunge. That would drop C-USA to 8 members, which is enough, but barely. This conference has gone through demolitions and rebuilds before and I think they would look to the FCS ranks to fill a couple of spots. A few intriguing opportunities (and we have no idea if the teams are even interested) are Chattanooga or Mercer from SoCon, or UT Martin from the Big South/Ohio Valley Conference, or Tarleton from the UAC. Tarleton would give New Mexico St, Sam Houston, and Missouri St another geographic rival. The other option would be to take UCONN (the only Group of 6 Independent). What we don’t see is C-USA sitting idle at 8 teams. That number is the minimum allowed for FBS membership. The Pac-12 was down to 2 and took the maximum two years to get to 8. There’s just too much risk of a team leaving forcing bad “hires”. Of course, any changes at the FBS level will cascade through the FCS level as well. Time will tell what happens. We don’t think it’s the monsoon that Oklahoma and Texas joining the SEC started, but we don’t see the Sun Belt sitting idle either. It may be a trickle compared to the last wave, but something will happen.
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But today is about the two C-USA games tonight. We’ve said it before and will continue to shout it from the rooftops – THIS IS GOOD FOR FOOTBALL! This conference has only one team that could possibly make the 12-team playoffs (Liberty at 5-1) and the MAC is eliminated (every team has at least two losses). Most of the time, these two conferences are either on ESPN+ or playing Alabama, or Ohio St or the like and getting crushed. These mid-week games give us an opportunity to see these teams in a fair fight. Not to mention, there’s no football conflicts so scouts can watch as well.
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We start tonight at 7:00 (all times Eastern) when the Delaware Blue Hens (2-3/121) head to Murfreesboro to take on the Mid Tenn Blue Raiders (2-3/123). When DEL has the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 90 (166th out of 266) which means they score 9.0 points for every 10.0 points their opponents allow on average. They face a MTSU Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 90 (181st) which means they give up 10.0 points for every 9.0 their opponents normally score. In the years that we’ve used these metrics; this is the first time that both teams had the exact same value. When the Raiders are driving, they bring an OER of 74 (217th) vs a Hen DER of 101 (149th). Vegas has DEL-1.5 with the road win, and the GCR current method disagrees: MTSU to win and cover. The test method has the Blue Hens winning by 3.0. You can catch this game on CBS Sports.
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With an 8:00 kickoff, the FIU Panthers (3-2/82) travel north to Alabama to play the Jax St Gamecocks (4-2/85) on ESPNU. When the Panthers are on offense, they have an OER of 75 (215th) to contend with the Jax St’s DER of 106 (129th). The Gamecocks bring an OER of 118 (83rd) vs an FIU DER of 201 (8th). Vegas has the Gamecocks-2.5, but the GCR sees an upset with FIU’s stingy defense winning the day – they only give up 12.2 points per game. Look for a low-scoring game.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 13th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Delaware (2-3/121) at Mid Tenn (2-3/123) | USA | DEL -1.5 | MTSU | MTSU | CBS Sports |
| 8:00 | FIU (3-2/82) at Jax St (4-2/85) | USA | JXST -2.5 | FIU | FIU | ESPNU |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for the next iteration of C-USA mid-week madness. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G.
