G’s Evaluation or Upset Saturday aka October Football

Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college football fans, to episode 708 or the Top 266 at the midpoint of the season. Yesterday was Upset Saturday with 35 (out of 86) Vegas favorites losing, including 14 who were favored by two scores (8.5 points or more). Here are those 14 in order of biggest point difference (Vegas spread and winning margin combined):

FavoriteWinnerPoint
Difference
Toledo-19.5Buffalo (23-8)34.5
Prairie View-17.5Southern (28-14)31.5
Florida-10.5South Carolina (38-19)29.5
Gardner Webb-14.5E Illinois (21-7)28.5
North Dakota-16.0N Iowa (24-17)23.0
TX Southern-14.0MS Valley (38-34)18.0
Drake-10.0Valparaiso (21-13)18.0
App St-9.5Old Dominion (10-3)16.5
Jackson St-9.5Grambling (45-38)16.5
Idaho St-14.0Cal Poly (25-24)15.0
Virginia Tech-9.5California (25-20)14.5
Montana-9.0N Arizona (49-44)14.0
Oregon-10.5UCLA (17-15)12.5
LSU-8.5Kentucky (35-34)9.5

…..

This does not include Elon-4.0 being shut out 16-0 by Wofford. In the list above, the GCR correctly picked UCLA over Oregon, Valparaiso over Drake, and MS Valley over TX Southern. We also picked Kentucky, Southern, N Arizona, Grambling, and N Iowa to cover, so that was helpful. For the 35 Vegas upsets yesterday, the GCR picked 10 of them (meaning we did not pick 25 of them). 16 of the 35 had the favorite at 6 points or less. Overall, the mean spread was 7.1 points. One more breakdown and then we’ll move on. 11 of the 23 Core 4 vs Core 4 games were Vegas upsets (we picked 3 of them correctly). 5 of the 21 Group of 6 vs Group of 6 were upsets (only 1 of those). And 19 of the 42 FCS games with Vegas odds (6 did not) were upsets (6-13). Over 40% of the games played yesterday were upsets, with over 16% of them being two or more score spreads.

…..

It seems obvious that Upset Saturdays wreak havoc on the GCRs prediction accuracy. Our upwardish trend hit a wall with only 61% accuracy when picking the winner (10-25 in upset games will do that) and just under 50% against the spread (ditto). Our test metric was better this week bringing the two methods to a dead heat: 67-38 (638) straight up and 55-47 (539) against the spread.

WeekC4/C4C4/G6C4/FCSG6/G6G6/FCSFCS/FCSTotal
0———————
1———0-2 (0)
0-2 (0)
3-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
15-8 (652)
12-9 (571)
18-10 (643) 14-12 (538)
29-5 (643)
6-8 (429)
16-1 (941) 11-6 (647)8-8 (500)
9-7 (563)
15-1 (938) 10-6 (625)14-7 (667)
8-12 (400)
21-12 (636)
12-21 (364)
83-34 (709) 56-60 (483)
313-7 (650) 10-10 (500)18-1 (947)
9-10 (474)
9-0 (1000)
6-3 (667)
8-10 (444)
8-10 (444)
8-1 (889)
3-6 (333)
23-13 (639)
17-14 (548)
79-32 (712) 53-53 (500)
413-10 (565) 17-6 (739)7-2 (778)
6-3 (667)
3-0 (1000)
3-0 (1000)
16-5 (762) 13-8 (619)8-1 (889)
5-4 (556)
35-13 (729)
30-18 (625)
82-31 (726) 74-39 (655)
517-10 (630) 16-11 (593)2-0 (1000)
2-1 (667)
1-0 (1000)
0-1 (0)
19-7 (731) 18-8 (692)2-0 (1000)
2-0 (1000)
33-20 (623)
28-20 (583)
74-37 (667) 66-41 (617)
617-9 (654) 14-12 (538)1-1 (500)
0-2 (0)
—18-13 (581) 15-15 (500) —28-18 (609)
22-22 (500)
64-41 (610) 51-51 (500)
Total69-41 (627) 63-47 (573)44-5 (898) 28-22 (560)21-8 (724) 18-11 (621)76-38 (667) 64-49 (566)35-9 (795) 20-23 (465)155-84 (649) 121-104 (538)400-185 (684) 314-256 (551)

…..

78 of the 94 games yesterday were conference games (CG in the table below). Those games are necessarily 500 for the respective conferences. Why that matters is the way the math works. If a given conference has an above 500 winning percentage out-of-conference, then conference games lower their overall winning percentage. For example, if a conference was 15-5 (750) out of conference and has played 15 conference games, there overall record would be 30-20 (600). Similarly, if a conference has a losing record, conference games raise the overall. If that conference was 5-15 (250) out of conference, with 15 in-conference games, they would be 20-30 (400). Here is the latest table with the usual caveat that overall record may or may not indicate the official conference average rank, because it does not take into consideration strength of schedule. Note: the value after the number of Conference Games played is out of conference winning percentage

W% RankFBSFCS
1Independents (9-3/750) 0 CG (750)Ivy League (20-12/625) 6 CG (700)
2SEC (63-28/692) 26 CG (949)Missouri Valley (33-25/569) 12 CG (618)
3B12 (58-27/682) 19 CG (830)MEAC (22-18/550) 0 CG (550)
4Big Ten (67-36/650) 25 CG (792)UAC (26-23/531) 7 CG (543)
5ACC (57-37/606) 25 CG (727)SWAC (38-38/500) 18 CG (500)
6American (41-38/519) 14 CG (529)Big Sky (40-45/471) 26 CG (424)
7Sun Belt (39-39/500) 12 CG (500)SoCon (31-35/470) 17 CG (438)
8Mountain West (27-29/482) 11 CG (471)Pioneer League (31-36/463) 14 CG (436)
9Pac 12 (22-24/478) 7 CG (469)Southland (28-33/459) 16 CG (414)
10MAC (36-43/456) 15 CG (429)Patriot League (27-34/443) 17 CG (370)
11Conference USA (23-31/426) 7 CG (400)CAA (35-47/427) 19 CG (364)
12—Big South/Ohio Valley (17-31/354) 6 CG (306)
13—Northeast (13-34/277) 5 CG (216)
14—FCS Indies (3-9/250) 0 CG (250)

…..

And now for the main event: The Top 266 for Week 6! Each week this season we’ve had a new and unique #1 team. This week, Alabama (5-1/2) falls from the top spot after a close loss to Georgia (6-0/4), and Miami FL (5-0/1), who was idle this week retakes the lead. For those wondering why the Crimson Tide outrank Georgia after a loss, it’s strength of schedule. Every team on Alabama’s schedule this season has at least a 500 record with an overall 706 opponent’s winning percentage. Georgia has faced just 2 winning teams (Oklahoma as well) and one 500 team (Vanderbilt) for an overall 457 opponent’s winning percentage. The average SEC opponent’s winning percentage is 610 this season. With that we give you the Top 266 from Miami FL to Wagner.

RankTeamConfWinLossPFPAScoreRPICelsius
1Miami FLACC5049.69.815.305100.00
2AlabamaSEC5144.220.715.24399.68
3Notre DameND6044.011.014.85197.82
4GeorgiaSEC6046.214.014.10494.21
5UCLAB105039.218.013.91293.30
6IndianaB106040.211.813.73992.46
7Ohio StB105142.713.213.311390.40
8Texas TechB125034.816.212.861188.24
9BYUB125034.613.412.671087.35
10UtahB125042.813.012.491486.49
11TexasSEC4131.416.012.34685.73
12Mississippi StSEC4139.028.012.20785.08
13HoustonB125140.019.212.101984.61
14ArizonaB125135.719.012.102684.57
15NorthwesternB104135.416.212.092384.53
16NebraskaB105139.215.211.912183.67
17MissouriSEC5135.817.711.771782.99
18Wake ForestACC5136.821.511.75882.91
19MississippiSEC4138.828.011.681582.58
20OregonB103241.022.011.623382.27
21WisconsinB104131.616.611.242480.46
22LSUSEC4242.018.511.072879.63
23TennesseeSEC5134.715.510.822078.42
24Southern CalB106136.425.110.791678.30
25BaylorB124134.814.210.752778.08
26James MadisonSUN6041.815.010.605477.36
27IowaB105131.014.510.571877.22
28KentuckySEC5134.728.010.551277.12
29PittsburghACC5134.814.710.522576.97
30Oklahoma StB124138.221.410.433176.54
31CincinnatiB124133.823.210.233275.57
32OklahomaSEC3223.017.610.142975.16
33DukeACC4134.014.49.733673.20
34Boise StPAC5135.022.39.725273.16
35FloridaSEC4241.729.09.703073.04
36LibertyUSA5131.215.39.607972.55
37North CarolinaACC3223.419.09.593572.49
38North Dakota StMWC5129.210.39.567272.35
39AuburnSEC3226.821.49.503472.05
40MemphisAAC5138.520.89.497172.04
41South CarolinaSEC3337.725.59.334271.25
42SMUACC4134.623.09.284071.00
43Virginia TechACC4237.720.79.284470.99
44MichiganB103223.015.89.273770.95
45PurdueB103332.231.39.253870.85
46New MexicoMWC4143.410.69.147570.33
47UCFB123331.721.79.135170.27
48Texas A&MSEC3327.520.09.014169.69
49Iowa StB123329.721.78.804768.70
50Penn StB103330.518.58.784868.62
51Fresno StPAC4228.320.08.646967.92
52Oregon StPAC4241.822.08.636467.88
53LouisvilleACC3339.527.78.634567.88
54ClemsonACC3219.425.88.582267.64
55VirginiaACC4232.819.28.454367.02
56Florida StACC3331.025.38.265566.13
57Georgia StSUN4139.419.08.208265.81
58WashingtonB103326.222.28.006364.84
59Kansas StB123235.619.27.905364.39
60LouisianaSUN4229.521.57.848564.06
61FAUAAC4137.226.67.827664.00
62MinnesotaB104228.821.87.813963.93
63UTSAAAC5131.325.87.746063.61
64UNLVMWC4223.020.87.726763.52
65North TexasAAC4242.229.27.718163.45
66Air ForceMWC4128.817.47.598662.86
67Michigan StB102421.325.77.496162.42
68VanderbiltSEC3324.029.57.304661.50
69SyracuseACC2332.824.07.228361.08
70IllinoisB103331.827.87.195660.98
71OhioMAC4227.524.77.007860.03
72South AlabamaSUN4238.834.56.958459.78
73South FloridaAAC4226.217.36.848859.29
74KansasB122333.621.86.847359.27
75West VirginiaB123336.332.76.825759.19
76StanfordACC2415.741.56.785058.99
77UMASSMAC4229.718.26.7110958.63
78NC StACC3333.027.76.585958.01
79W MichiganMAC4225.717.36.508057.65
80MarylandB102428.032.76.507057.62
81Arizona StB123232.627.86.435857.30
82FIUUSA3218.812.26.4310357.29
83CaliforniaACC3326.725.56.384957.07
84TCUB122325.413.46.326856.75
85Jax StUSA4227.322.56.318956.70
86ArkansasSEC2419.327.76.276556.55
87Boston CollegeACC2319.023.46.217756.25
88TroySUN3228.024.06.169955.98
89ColoradoB122318.625.46.076255.55
90East CarolinaAAC3224.822.66.008755.21
91ToledoMAC4236.725.25.939154.88
92LA TechSUN3235.229.45.647453.48
93ArmyAAC3230.619.25.649553.47
94Georgia TechACC2327.225.85.546653.01
95San Jose StMWC3321.023.55.5410453.01
96E MichiganMAC4322.624.75.429352.42
97C MichiganMAC3317.026.35.319051.92
98Miami OHMAC3325.727.55.289251.75
99App StSUN3228.419.85.1410551.10
100TulsaAAC3327.523.35.139851.02
101Montana StSKY5137.018.35.0915750.84
102NevadaMWC2327.822.04.9313250.08
103UCONNIND3335.725.24.9211550.05
104LehighPAT6033.711.84.8919049.87
105UABAAC3322.225.84.6911348.93
106BuffaloMAC3320.826.84.6810748.88
107NavyAAC2327.023.44.6812148.86
108TarletonUAC6039.523.34.5915248.44
109WyomingMWC3314.520.54.5811448.38
110Texas StPAC2334.833.24.499447.94
111W KentuckyUSA2422.235.24.4811647.90
112TulaneAAC2318.422.64.449647.71
113RutgersB101430.032.24.3010047.05
114Utah StPAC2414.523.54.1611046.37
115MarshallSUN3322.033.74.1511146.31
116Ga SouthernSUN2424.724.34.0010145.61
117Steph F AustinSLAN6038.315.23.8917245.08
118PrincetonIVY3124.810.33.7420244.35
119Bowling GreenMAC2415.829.23.6610843.97
120HarvardIVY4026.515.83.6617843.97
121DelawareUSA2321.425.63.6611243.95
122Idaho StSKY4234.821.83.6119343.71
123Mid TennUSA2320.828.03.5312443.36
124Colorado StPAC2337.438.63.519743.23
125San Diego StPAC2422.835.03.4910243.14
126Kent StMAC2413.732.53.3210642.31
127Old DominionSUN2418.227.53.2611742.06
128Arkansas StSUN2428.228.83.2212741.87
129CoastalSUN2425.224.33.0312040.95
130Sam HoustonUSA1422.826.22.9312640.45
131RiceAAC1517.027.52.8911940.27
132South Dakota StMFC5140.816.02.8214039.93
133TempleAAC2424.826.32.7012539.35
134TN TechSoCon5131.523.22.7019939.32
135Kennesaw StUSA1422.623.42.6613439.14
136New Mexico StUSA2423.725.72.6013038.84
137YaleIVY3133.024.32.5622638.66
138South DakotaMFC5237.925.02.3715537.74
139ColgatePAT4222.314.22.2516237.19
140Alabama A&MSWAC5237.118.42.2421437.14
141Youngstown StMFC5239.723.32.1914236.88
142Illinois StMFC4238.217.72.1716036.79
143MontanaSKY5238.126.02.0516636.23
144Austin PeayUAC5236.319.61.9416335.66
145North DakotaMFC5238.927.31.9214135.57
146ButlerPFL5137.322.01.8924535.43
147ChattanoogaSoCon4320.012.61.8824635.40
148Ball StMAC1518.339.01.8212335.10
149AkronMAC1519.732.21.7811834.92
150Missouri StUSA1421.832.41.7613134.83
151LamarSLAN5130.022.71.7615034.79
152CampbellCAA5134.028.81.5213933.65
153SC StMEAC5243.619.11.4723533.43
154DaytonPFL4133.619.81.4725033.43
155Jackson StSWAC5139.522.51.4221833.18
156Washington StPAC1518.523.71.3612232.87
157HawaiiMWC1516.725.71.3312932.75
158MercerSoCon5230.616.61.3016432.59
159BrownIVY2216.312.51.2924332.53
160AlbanyCAA3321.316.81.2520732.38
161N IllinoisMWC0512.434.61.1613331.93
162St ThomasPFL5237.129.11.1017531.62
163MaristPFL3325.819.21.0626131.46
164CornellIVY2227.325.01.0624131.46
165Stony BrookCAA4234.229.71.0220131.28
166ElonCAA4325.717.41.0025531.17
167Southern MissSUN1426.434.60.9313530.81
168ValparaisoPFL3329.821.30.8825830.57
169ColumbiaIVY3127.028.50.8123730.25
170BryantCAA4220.523.30.6218229.34
171N ArizonaSKY5230.730.90.6014729.23
172PennIVY2215.315.30.5923829.18
173Sacramento StMAC1516.330.20.5613629.02
174West FloridaUAC3223.827.00.5522329.00
175WoffordSoCon4323.924.40.5221328.84
176SELASLAN3327.527.80.4619128.54
177North AlabamaUAC4223.721.20.4416728.49
178Alabama StSWAC3326.518.30.3621528.08
179E Tenn StSoCon5232.725.00.3115427.84
180Rhode IslandCAA3322.323.80.2122727.35
181DrakePFL2425.535.70.1726227.18
182ULMSUN0524.044.60.1113726.87
183PresbyterianPFL3327.340.20.0325426.49
184Gardner WebbBSOV2521.623.30.0120326.40
185RichmondPAT5222.027.0-0.0115826.31
186UC DavisSKY4234.334.0-0.0215126.23
187Morgan StMEAC5131.027.5-0.0814825.97
188Weber StSKY4337.636.1-0.0919525.89
189UTEPMWC1515.839.5-0.1212825.77
190Cal PolySKY4329.630.3-0.1620625.57
191Abilene ChrUAC3420.624.9-0.2715925.04
192MonmouthCAA4226.533.2-0.3117924.87
193W CarolinaSoCon3431.631.4-0.3416524.72
194Robert MorrisNEC3325.825.2-0.3925224.48
195DartmouthIVY1317.323.3-0.4625724.13
196Chrls SoBSOV3327.820.3-0.5022123.92
197Ark Pine BluffSWAC3236.433.4-0.5614423.67
198Rio GrandeSLAN3420.723.1-0.5820923.53
199SEMOBSOV3322.524.8-0.6218023.37
200N IowaMFC3226.428.2-0.6314523.33
201CharlotteAAC0616.042.2-0.6813823.07
202S IllinoisMFC3424.126.4-0.6919723.01
203S UtahSKY2431.336.2-0.8021022.48
204N ColoradoSKY2523.026.6-0.8724422.17
205Delaware StMEAC4323.425.3-0.9220821.92
206Alcorn StSWAC4342.436.4-1.0722521.21
207Norfolk StMEAC4335.323.4-1.1623620.77
208San DiegoPFL2427.041.3-1.1825620.68
209W IllinoisBSOV3331.822.8-1.2016820.56
210East TexasSLAN2417.327.8-1.3023420.07
211CitadelSoCon2422.533.5-1.3424719.91
212Sacred HeartCAA2417.724.8-1.3423919.91
213Incarnate WordSLAN2434.234.0-1.4421619.41
214StonehillNEC2418.524.5-1.4718419.27
215GramblingSWAC4237.735.7-1.4917619.15
216C ConnecticutNEC2331.237.0-1.5020419.13
217E KentuckyUAC2418.328.0-1.5022919.11
218SamfordSoCon1518.224.7-1.5324919.00
219E WashingtonSKY2528.035.6-1.6420018.46
220Holy CrossPAT2422.332.8-1.6521218.42
221FurmanSoCon2516.422.4-1.6621118.33
222MS ValleySWAC3418.334.1-1.6824218.26
223NC CentralMEAC2523.030.1-1.8223217.57
224NC A&TCAA2519.332.0-1.8323017.52
225E IllinoisBSOV2418.535.5-1.8618117.37
226GeorgetownPAT1417.427.6-1.9225917.11
227Houston ChrSLAN3329.725.7-1.9315617.03
228DavidsonPFL2522.438.4-1.9926516.78
229BethuneSWAC3327.531.7-1.9918916.77
230Indiana StMFC2527.737.3-2.0219416.63
231New HavenNEC1512.729.2-2.0326016.58
232Prairie ViewSWAC2522.429.7-2.0820516.34
233Chicago StFCSIND1529.039.8-2.1526316.01
234MerrimackFCSIND2416.331.0-2.1824015.86
235VillanovaPAT2423.032.0-2.2218815.64
236SouthernSWAC3423.134.7-2.2816915.36
237C ArkansasUAC2423.227.8-2.3219615.18
238Morehead StPFL1525.846.8-2.4426414.58
239StetsonPFL1518.743.3-2.4926614.35
240New HampshireCAA2519.433.3-2.5322814.16
241IdahoSKY1527.740.0-2.5418314.12
242BucknellPAT1510.825.8-2.5622414.02
243UT MartinBSOV2424.733.8-2.5915313.88
244McNeeseSLAN2425.729.8-2.6418513.61
245FordhamPAT2515.630.4-2.7018713.33
246William & MaryPAT3420.337.1-2.7919812.93
247LafayettePAT1423.036.6-2.8024812.85
248TN StBSOV1518.035.8-2.8917412.42
249Florida A&MSWAC2419.235.2-3.0417011.69
250MaineCAA1514.530.8-3.2722010.61
251DuquesneNEC1417.433.8-3.421869.88
252HowardMEAC2417.733.7-3.451469.74
253Long IslandNEC2514.729.4-3.481779.60
254TX SouthernSWAC1525.046.7-3.552319.24
255LindenwoodBSOV1419.233.6-3.762178.25
256TowsonCAA0722.936.3-4.032226.94
257Nwestern StSLAN0618.750.5-4.082516.73
258Portland StSKY2423.545.0-4.111436.57
259NichollsSLAN2416.338.8-4.231716.00
260West GeorgiaUAC1518.832.5-4.242335.93
261Utah TechSKY0714.942.9-4.702193.73
262HamptonCAA1517.034.3-4.741923.55
263VMISoCon068.341.8-4.932532.59
264Murray StMFC1514.840.7-5.141731.62
265MercyhurstNEC1518.543.8-5.301610.83
266WagnerNEC1512.540.7-5.471490.00

…..

That’s it for today. Come back on Tuesday as Conference USA takes center stage with mid-week games. Thank you for taking the time to read today (it’s why we do this), comment on our content (it’s how we get better), and share with others (it’s how we grow). Until Tuesday, JoJo and G.

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