Welcome oh great and wonderful sports fans to episode 699 which is the start of something truly special: it is the first of 55 straight days of football, considering both college and pro. Tonight, like any Thursday, both leagues are represented. Typically, Fridays and Saturdays belong the college and Sundays and Mondays belong to the pros. Beginning next week and through November 24th, Tuesday and Wednesday belong to either Conference USA (October) or the MAC (November). We won’t be at daily posts until November 1st when Men’s basketball kicks off, but we are inching closer with 6 posts per week next week. Tuesday through Saturday will be daily Expectations and Sunday will be the updated Evaluation or Top 266 (and other analysis). In November, we will add both Men’s and Women’s basketball to the daily Evaluation (which will include football on game days). There are no games on Christmas, so we’ll get an off day then. The next off day will be sometime in March. Just guessing a little because we don’t know all of the scheduling yet, but we think that will mean from today until that sometime in March date, we will post 160 days out of 166. Even when we are posting daily Expectations, the Evaluations (one for each sport/league) will also come out each week. Football will be every Sunday, with the last one prior to the National Championship Games or December 7th. We do not publish updated rankings during bowl season, but we do update our records for better predictions. Men’s and Women’s basketball Evaluations will be published on Mondays and Tuesdays beginning November 9th and will run weekly through the final conference championship tournament. Then we will have the final Evaluations following the final Championship Game for each league. Add those to the mix and we estimate around 190 posts over the next 166 days. It may be insanity in the grand offices of the GCR (okay G’s house), but we have the staff (ok, JoJo and G) to get this done. Feedback now, and along the way, is always welcome as we strive to make this blog as entertaining as it can be. Thank you, oh great and wonderful reader, in advance.
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But today is about football and we have two games on the slate tonight. It’s hard to believe we are in Week 5 already. We kick off at 8:00pm (all times Eastern) when the W Kentucky Hilltoppers (1-3/132) head west, young men, to New Mexico St (1-3/158) in a Conference USA clash. When WKY has the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 91 (161st out of 266). That means that they score 9.1 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face an Aggie Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER) of 89 (179th). That means NMST gives up 10.0 points for every 8.9 their opponents normally score. With both OER and DER below average, we expect to see moments of brilliance on both sides but expect some trouble in execution. When the Aggies are in control, they bring an OER of 95 (146th) against a Hilltopper DER of 87 (186th). From these metrics the teams are practically twins. That makes predictions difficult. Vegas has NMST-1.5 (when home field advantage is around -3.5) and the GCR agrees with the win and for the Aggies to cover using the current prediction methodology (by 7.5). However, the new prediction algorithm has the Hilltoppers winning by 2.0. In any view, this one should be a close game, albeit a little clumsy on both sides, as these teams try to right their respective ships. You can watch the game on CBS Sports.
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At 9:00, airing on ESPN, we have an American matchup when Tulsa (3-1/68) hosts North Texas (2-2/88). When the Golden Hurricane have the ball, they bring an OER of 94 (149th) which, as the theme seems to be so far, is a below average offense. They will face a NTEX DER of 110 (121st), which is at least in the upper half of Division I. Tulsa may have a little trouble putting points on the board. When the Mean Green (aren’t the mascots today just great!) are on offense, they put up an OER of 165 (14th) which is by far the best of the day. They face, however, the best defense with a TULS DER of 172 (26th). This game seems to be strength on strength and weakness on weakness. The question is which pairing wins out? Vegas has NTEX-2.5, but the GCR is calling for Tulsa at home to win and cover. The current model shows a 15.0-point victory, and the new model has an 11.0-point win. Clearly Vegas sees strength on strength (NTEX offense over TULS defense) as more powerful while the GCR sees weakness on weakness (TULS offense over NTEX defense) as the winning combination. I guess we’ll know around midnight Eastern.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 1st | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 8:00 | W Kentucky (1-3/132) at New Mexico St (1-3/158) | USA | NMST -1.5 | NMST | NMST | CBS Sports |
| 9:00 | North Texas (2-2/88) at Tulsa (3-1/68) | AAC | NTEX -2.5 | TULS | TULS | ESPN |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for 4 more games before the main event on Saturday. Thank you for reading (it’s why we do this), commenting/questioning/suggesting (it’s how we get better), and sharing with others (it’s how we grow). Until tomorrow, JoJo and G.
