Welcome back, college sports fans, for the milestone 700th episode in this format. We have a few things to talk about today, but let’s start with last night’s games. First, New Mexico St (2-3/125) took fellow Conference USA opponent W Kentucky (1-4/150) to the woodshed breaking out to a 20-6 halftime lead before cruising to a 34-13 final. Their first TD was a 45-yard pick 6 which set the stage. Later, in an overtime thriller, Tulsa (3-2/81) failed on a 2-point conversion in the first extra frame giving North Texas (3-2/79) the American conference victory 45-44. For the day, the GCR was 1-1 picking the winner and 2-0 against the spread.
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Before we get into today’s matchups, we wanted to take a moment to explain something about the GCR that we’ve probably said a couple of hundred times. The GCR does not see the future meaning and has no past. All games that have been played were just played “now”. We’ve attempted to explain this before, but don’t think we’ve done a good job, so here’s a comparative example. We have two teams (very creatively named Team A and Team B) in the same Core 4 conference. Both teams are 4-0 after the month of September having played, in order, a Core 4 team, an FCS team, and two Group of 6 teams. Both teams played winless teams in every game: 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, and 0-3 at game time. If that’s all we looked at, their strengths of schedule (SOS) would be equal. But Team A’s first three opponents remain winless and are all 0-4 (giving the collective record of 0-16 “now”). Team B’s first three opponents have won every game since making them 3-1, 2-2, 1-3, and 0-4 respectively (giving the collective record of 6-10 “now”). The GCR would calculate that Team B has played the more difficult schedule. This would reflect in the overall ranking. It also means that after the next game is played, both teams opponent collective records will be updated and recalculated. If Team A’s opponents all win (making Team A 4-1 with a collective opp’s record of 5-16) and Team B’s opponents all lose (5-0 with a collective opp’s record of 6-15), team B would probably still be higher ranked based on record, but the SOS between them would be more similar. Going back to the scenario with both teams 4-0. Let’s assume that Team A’s future opponents (8 of them) have a combined record of 24-8 while Team B faces a more modest 10-18 future opponents record after Week 4. It seems that by the end of the year, Team A will face the more difficult schedule, but the GCR doesn’t care. Those games could be cancelled, or a major injury could put a team on a different multiverse path (yes, we love Marvel). Until a game is played, it has no impact (although we do keep a future schedule metric for fun and may post that in a future Exploration). Once a game is played, the game itself is not replayed each week, but the impact that game has on all other games is constantly reevaluated. This explanation is not about the calculations themselves, but the logic behind our approach. Teams, especially early in the season, have not played “equal” opponents and other factors (such as location) play into it as well. We’d love to know if this helped clarify this concept which exists because of all the multiverse possibilities out there – there have been teams that started 4-0 and missed bowl games. Shouldn’t the team that played them in Week 3 get credit for losing to a 5-7 team rather than a 3-0 team?
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With that we have a 4-0 vs 4-0 scenario today in our first game when Pittsburgh (4-0/15) travels to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech (4-0/11). The Panthers SOS so far this season is 109th (out of 266) after beating G6 Miami OH (2-2/90), C4 UFC (3-1/31), ACC foe Syracuse (1-2/83), and FCS Bucknell (1-4/235) – all home games. They face the Hokies who are ranked 108th in SOS beating FCS VMI (0-5/254), G6 Old Dominion (1-3/140), at C4 Maryland (2-2/76), and ACC for Boston College (2-2/67). When PITT has the ball, they bring an Offensive Efficiency Rating (OER) of 175 (10th out of 266) to bear which means they score 17.5 points for every 10.0 points their opponents normally allow. They will face a Hokie defense with a DER of 131 (80th) which means they give up 10.0 points for every 13.3 points their opponents normally score. When VT is on offense, they bring an OER of 146 (34th) vs a Panther DER of 316 (2nd). Those numbers alone make it look like PITT has a huge advantage, but the Efficiency Ratings can be skewed early in the season because of blowouts (wins and losses) among opponents in different leagues (example Core 4 vs FCS). As the season progresses, we see more normalization of the data. Vegas has VT-2.5 at home (slightly less than the 3.5 “natural” home-field advantage) and the GCR agrees for the Hokies to win and cover. The current method has VT winning by 4.5 and our test metric sits at 4.0. This game has a 7:00 (all times Eastern) kickoff on ESPN.
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Also at 7:00, on CBS Sports, we have an interesting Conference USA matchup when the Liberty Flames (3-1/54) take on the Delaware Blue Hens (2-2/99) in Newark, DE. Liberty’s OER is 122 (82nd) and will face a Blue Hen DER of 111 (120th). On the flip side, DEL brings an OER of 107 (114th) against a Flame DER of 152 (50th). This is the conference opener for both teams. Delaware surprised C-USA with a strong showing last season although they lost to Liberty 59-30 in the only historical meeting. The Blue Hens have played the 68th most difficult schedule while the Flames sit at 113th. Vegas has LIB-6.5 and the GCR has to agree to win and cover. Our current algorithm has LIB by 14.5 while the test has them by 13.0.
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Our third game today is a Big Ten matchup when Penn St (3-1/26) invades Northwestern (2-1/32). Both teams are 0-1 in conference play, so this feels a lot like an elimination game. PSU lost to Wisconsin (3-1/37) last week while Northwestern came up just short against Indiana (4-0/16). The Nittany Lions have played the 84th most difficult schedule while Northwestern is sitting at 10th in that category (their opponents have a 769 winning percentage and are 9-1 when not playing the Wildcats). PSU offense vs NW defense gives us the OER/DER combination of 130 (71st)/200 (19th) while the NW/PSU shows us 193 (2nd)/227 (9th). Vegas has PSU-2.5 and the current algorithm agrees to win and cover at 4.0 points. However, the test algorithm has Northwestern-3.0. Should be a close one. Watch it at 8:00 on Fox.
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Our nightcap (10:30 on ESPN) features last year’s FCS champion Montana St (5-0/75) at fellow Big Sky member Idaho (0-4/247). This game will be interesting just to watch how good the Bobcats are. Idaho, by the way, promoted to the Sun Belt a few years ago (yes, the league with a bunch of teams in the southeast) but struggled to be competitive and dropped back to the FCS a couple of seasons later. This should be an absolute blowout. Vegas has MTST-14.5 and the GCR agrees with a current algorithm showing a 19.0 win. The new method shows a 45.5-point win which a huge difference. For fellow east coast insomniacs or our west coast brethren, it should be fun to watch, at least for a half.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 2nd | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Pittsburgh (4-0/15) at Virginia Tech (4-0/11) | ACC | VT -2.5 | VT | VT | ESPN |
| 7:00 | Liberty (3-1/54) at Delaware (2-2/99) | USA | LIB -6.5 | LIB | LIB | CBS Sports |
| 8:00 | Penn St (3-1/26) at Northwestern (2-1/32) | B10 | PSU -2.5 | PSU | PSU | Fox |
| 10:30 | Montana St (5-0/75) at Idaho (0-4/247) | SKY | MTST -16.5 | MTST | MTST | ESPN |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for episode 701 which is a full slate of Saturday football. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G.
