G’s Expectation or Let’s Head to New Orleans

Happy Wednesday and welcome to day 5 of the FBS bowl season. Yesterday the MAC had a great day with 2 victories. First, in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, E Michigan upset San Jose St 41-27 with a monster 2nd quarter to take a 30-13 half time lead and held on despite being outgained 498-416. Later a couple of special team miscues by Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl helped Toledo with a comeback 21-19 win. That put the GCR straight up 1-1 yesterday (8-3 for bowl season) and 2-0 against the spread (7-4 so far).

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Here’s the latest winners/losers table:

ConferenceWinnersLosersRemaining
American (7)Cincinnati, SMUHouston, Memphis, East Carolina, UCF, Tulane
ACC (9)LouisvilleWake Forest, Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Florida St, NC St, Pittsburgh, Clemson
Big 12 (8)Baylor, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas St, TCU
Big Ten (9)Wisconsin, Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio St, Illinois, Purdue, Penn St
C-USA (6)UABUTSA, Rice, North TexasW Kentucky, Middle Tennessee
Indies (5)BYUUCONN, LibertyNew Mexico St, Notre Dame
MAC (6)E Michigan, ToledoMiami OHBowling Green, Buffalo, Ohio
MWC (7)Fresno St, Boise StSan Jose StAir Force, San Diego St, Utah St, Wyoming
Pac 12 (7)Oregon StWashington StOregon, Washington, UCLA, Southern Cal, Utah
SEC (11)FloridaMissouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky, Georgia, Mississippi St, LSU
Sun (7)Troy, Southern Miss, MarshallSouth Alabama, Louisiana, Ga Southern, Coastal Carolina

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And the detailed statistics

ConferenceRecordExp Recvs Power 5vs Group 5FavoriteUnderdogVegas ATSGCR S/UGCR Cover
American (7)0-2 (.000)4-3 (.571)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-1 (.000)0-2 (.000)0-1 (.000)
ACC (9)1-0 (1.000)5-4 (.554)0-01-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)0-01-0 (1.000)0-00-0
Big 12 (8)0-02-6 (.250)0-00-00-00-00-00-00-0
Big Ten (9)0-06-3 (.667)0-00-00-00-00-00-0
C-USA (6)1-3 (.250)2-4 (.333)1-3 (.250)1-1 (.500)0-2 (.000)0-2 (.000)1-0 (1.000)0-1 (.000)
Indies (5)1-2 (.333)1-4 (.200)0-01-2 (.333)0-01-2 (.333)0-00-1 (.000)2-1 (.667)
MAC (6)2-1 (.667)2-4 (.333)2-1 (.667)1-0 (1.000)1-1 (.500)0-1 (.000)1-0 (1.000)2-0 (1.000)
MWC (7)2-1 (.667)5-2 (.714)1-0 (1.000)1-1 (.500)2-1 (.667)0-01-2 (.333)2-0 (1.000)1-1 (.500)
Pac 12 (7)1-1 (.500)5-2 (.714)1-0 (1.000)0-1 (000)1-0 (1.000)0-1 (000)1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)
SEC (11)0-1 (000)5-6 (.455)0-1 (000)0-00-1 (.000)0-00-00-0
Sun (7)3-0 (1.000)4-3 (.571)3-0 (1.000)2-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)2-0 (1.000)3-0 (1.000)1-0 (1.000)
Total1141-412-2 (.500)9-9 (.500)8-3 (.727)3-8 (.273)5-6 (.455)8-3 (.727)7-4 (.636)

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I’m pretty excited about today’s game because of the matchup. W Kentucky (8-5/86), third in Conference USA, will meet up with South Alabama (10-2), who came in a second in the West via tiebreaker to eventual Sun Belt champion and Cure Bowl winner Troy. The game, in New Orleans, kicks off at 9:00 Eastern. As I reviewed the schedules, there were no upsets (although W Kentucky lost to Indiana by 3, Troy by 7, and UTSA by 3 while South Alabama lost to UCLA by 1 and Troy by 4) – both teams beat the teams they should have beaten and lost to better (or higher league) teams. Not to mention they have two of the better mascots in FBS: W Kentucky Hilltoppers (which is some kind of red muppet sort of thing that is both silly and frightening) and the South Alabama Jaguars. All of this is really intriguing to me and when the Hilltoppers are on offense they bring a very good OER of 121 (good for 56th in the nation). That means they score 12.1 points for every 10 points their opponents normally allow. They need it because the Jaguars have a stellar defense with a DER of 134 (36th). That means they allow 10 points for every 13.4 points they opponents normally score. On the flip side, the boys from Mobile have a decent offense with an OER of 111 (91st) while the boys from Bowling Green (Kentucky) have a solid defense with a DER of 116 (74th). It just seems like a hard-fought battle will ensue. Vegas thinks it’s close but gives the edge to SALA -4.5 and the GCR likes the Jags as well to win 79.7% and to cover.

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That’s it for today. One game tomorrow as well. Happy Holidays to everyone and I hope the hustle and bustle of the season still allows you to catch a game here and there. Thank you for reading and sharing, G. Here’s the summary for today.

TimeAwayConf RecHomeConf RecVegasGCRTo Cover
December 21, 2022New Orleans BowlNew Orleans
9:00W Kentucky (8-5/86)C-USA (6-2)South Alabama (10-2/21)SUN (7-1)SALA -4.5SALA 79.7%SALA