Welcome back, oh great and wonderful college sports fans, to episode 725 which is (mostly) all about the four games provided to us tonight. First, let’s talk about what happened last night. As expected by both Vegas and the GCR, SC St (7-2/138) took care of Morgan St (5-4/218), virtually taking control of the MEAC, but our algorithm had the game closer than the 51-10 final. In a tremendous upset, 18.5-point underdog Troy (4-4/102) eliminated James Madison (7-2/37) from the 12-team playoffs, and possibly an invitation to the Sun Belt championship game, 24-21 in overtime. JMU was up 21-7 at the half and never dented the scoreboard again, going for it on 4th and 1 (and failing) on the 5-yard line in OT. The GCR had the Dukes winning and covering. The third game had North Texas (6-2/50) gaining bowl eligibility and, more importantly, staying alive in the American race, besting FAU (5-3/83) by a score of 48-41 in a slugfest featuring nearly 1200 yards of offense. Vegas had NTEX-14.5, and the GCR predicted the winner, but that FAU would make the game closer than that. Hurrah! One completely correct, but one completely wrong, and one split. That means for the day, 2-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread. For the week, 5-2 (714, sort of acceptable and much better than the last few weeks) SU and 4-3 (571, statistically close to the target value of 575, and MUCH better than the last few weeks) ATS.
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Before we get into tonight’s matchups, two points. First, we are now just a couple of days from the tipoff of the 2026-27 college basketball season. That means even more posts and an enhanced Expectation. When we decided to post daily for all three leagues (football, men’s and women’s basketball), we debated between separate posts for each (minimum 2 per day, sometimes 3 in November, December, and January) or one combined post (much longer posts in general, especially on Saturdays). We decided it would be simpler for our readers to find a singular post that had all three leagues than to search for the “correct” one for that league.
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The second thing is that G is heading to Presbyterian College, in Clinton, SC, for his 40th reunion this weekend, although not staying overnight to see the game. As much as we love Bailey Stadium, we would rather have the trustworthy internet speed from the secret GCR lair (G’s living room, or sometimes the loft) for the biggest post of the week. We will be watching the game (amongst others) on Saturday and let’s all give a boisterous Go (Blue) Hose! The dinner tonight will be fun, and we hope to see some old (not intended as a pun, but…) friends there.
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This post, however, is all about games under the lights this particular Friday night. There are two games with 7:00 (all times Eastern) starts, and the second is, sorry to say, more interesting that the first – unless we see another fairly large and unexpected upset. From the American Conference, we have the Tulane Green Wave (3-4/111) heading roughly northeast to invade the Charlotte 49ers (1-6/174), who are coming off their first win of the season, but still the 6th worst Group of 6 team. Both teams are 1-2 in conference play and all but eliminated from contention, which means this game is about pride (and avoidance of bowl elimination for CLT for the second straight week). Vegas has TULN-9.5 and the GCR agrees up to 12.5-16.0 points. Tulane wins and covers. Watch the game on ESPN2.
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We have to jump to the FCS for the better game as Harvard (6-0/114) rides up to New Hampshire to take on Dartmouth (3-3/162). In past years, an Ivy League team could go 10-0 (they only play 10 games a year by tradition), and it would be a collective “so-what” primarily because they had no postseason at all. The MEAC and SWAC winners play in the Celebration Bowl, and all other FCS conferences (excluding independents) are 24-team playoff eligible. That changed last year, when the Ivy decided to declare themselves playoff ready. A 10-0 Harvard may end up seeded, getting a bye in the first round, and hosting a second-round game. We project this game to be Harvard-12.0 while Vegas has HARV-10.5. That’s not appreciably different than the game in the previous paragraph, but the stakes are a tad higher. The Crimson beat the Big Green and cover the spread. You can catch this game on ESPNU
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At 7:30, we introduce the first Core 4 matchup of the week when the Baylor Bears (4-3/52) heads to Orlando, not for Disney, but rather to face a UCF (4-3/42) team who just knocked off BYU (6-1/14) on the same field. The Knights stunned the Cougars as part of an ongoing difficult year for the “good” teams out there in double overtime. Will there be a letdown (as we’ve seen over and over again) or can UCF remain focused? Baylor just lost to Kansas (3-4/81) and fired their head coach. We’ve seen two equally likely to occur: 1) the team, knowing their season’s goals are shot (they fired the head coach, after all) so they phone it in and the season continues to the gutter, or 2) the players see the interim coach scenario as a positive change, which replenishes drive and focus, leading to a run of victories. This game could be great (UCF has no letdown and BAY is hyped) or pretty awful (not those things). Vegas (and the folks hoping they don’t lose money in a system designed for bettors to lose money) aren’t sure either, with BAY-1.5 on the road. The GCR isn’t sure either, although our algorithms do not consider coaching changes or previous week upsets (per se) into consideration. For our current metric, the GCR has Baylor winning, but UCF covering with only a 50.5% for the Bears to win (0.5 points). The calculation in test mode has UCF winning by 7.0. The game will be entertaining and should be close regardless of which teams show up on both sidelines. Catch it on ESPN.
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The final game tonight, at 10:30 features the newest member of the MAC, the Sacramento St Hornets (1-7/207), 2nd worst Group of 6 team just ahead of ex-MAC N Illinois, hosting the Kent St Golden Flashes (3-5/125). The Hornets moved up from the FCS (Big Sky conference) to the FBS in a way not really consistent with others, which concerns us at the GCR a little. When we think of App St, James Madison, North Dakota St, Ga Southern, Sam Houston, etc., we see teams that showed consistent success at the FCS level prior to making the jump. SAC, facing teams like Montana and Montana St every season, were not that team. That concerns us because while North Dakota St, who also made the jump this season, fully expects to be contenders in the Mountain West this year and every year, SAC has shown little ability to compete even in the MAC (second worst FBS winning percentage just above C-USA). In fact, their only win this season was against FCS MS Valley (3-5/237) by a score of 52-0. In the 7 games against FBS opponents, they have been outscored 263-70 – almost 28 points a game. The closest game was an 11-point loss to E Michigan (4-5/117) in Week 1. That lack of competition could be a long-term strategy to build up to the level needed (optimistic view) or just that they weren’t ready but liked the bigger payout for having bad teams (pessimistic view). Time will tell, but being in a conference in which your closest opponent is in Muncie, Indiana (2,222 miles), is, we would think, not really conducive to a rebuild. Vegas has this game with KTST-7.5 and the GCR agrees to win and cover up to 18.5 points. This game is on ESPN2.
| Time (ET) | Games of October 30th | Conference | Vegas | GCR | Cover | TV |
| 7:00 | Tulane (3-4/111) at Charlotte (1-6/174) | AAC | CLT -9.5 | TULN | TULN | ESPN2 |
| 7:00 | Harvard (6-0/114) at Dartmouth (3-3/162) | IVY | HARV -10.5 | HARV | HARV | ESPNU |
| 7:30 | Baylor (4-3/52) at UCF (4-3/42) | B12 | BAY -1.5 | BAY | UCF | ESPN |
| 10:30 | Kent St (3-5/125) at Sacramento St (1-7/207) | MAC | KTST -7.5 | KTST | KTST | ESPN2 |
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That’s it for today. Tune in tomorrow for a full slate of Saturday action – Halloween edition. Until then, thank you for reading, commenting, and sharing with others, JoJo and G
