Greetings on great and wonderful fans. The last two FBS conferences start this week which is the good news. The GCR is predicting 28 games which is also good. It would have been 30 but 2 games have been postponed today: FIU at UTEP and Louisville at Virginia. That along with the cancelled game between Purdue and Wisconsin and we have a grim reminder of the bravery of these kids to provide us entertainment. For those that don’t know, I’m a geek for my day job, but in a band on the weekends. We had a Covid scare in the band (lead vocalist tested positive), but we love to entertain – and we certainly need all the good stuff we can get this year.
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With that I’m writing this while 6 games are being played – the entire MAC is playing tonight. Of course, no predictions, but as of right now W Michigan is killing Akron 51-13 late in the 3rd, Kent St is edging E Michigan in the 4th 20-15, C Michigan is up a TD 20-13 nearing halftime against Ohio, Ball State and Miami OH are at halftime with the Cardinals up 14-10, Buffalo is edging N Illinois 21-16 approaching the half, and Toledo is blanking Bowling Green 21-0 in the 1st. Welcome back MAC Nation!!
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Starting Saturday, the Pac 12 joins the show and we are finally off!! But how to entertain ourselves with the 59 games this week? Pre-Saturday, there’s the MAC Wednesday which is just brilliant from a marketing strategy. There’s BYU (11) at Boise St (33) in the late game Friday night. The GCR can’t predict that one yet because the Broncos only have 2 games, but these teams are a combined 9-0. BYU is favored -2.5 so it should be a close one. But, I’m calling the game to watch as Miami FL (4) at NC St (19) – one of 4 games between GCR Top 25 teams this weekend. Vegas likes Miami -10 and the GCR has them in the 50% decile, something closer to a toss up (59.4%). If I’m wrong by half time, flip it over to BYU/Boise St.
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There are a ton of early games that look fun. Air Force (101) at Army (37) kick it off at 11:30 (all time Eastern). Michigan (81) puts undefeated Indiana (8) to the test. Nebraska (91) gets to play at Northwestern (9) so maybe they won’t whine as much. The game to watch might be a little surprising: Liberty (23) at Virginia Tech (18). 6-0 with an embarrassingly weak schedule (opponents have a .125 winning percentage) visiting 4-2 and tested (26th most difficult schedule this year so far) Hokies. If the GCR didn’t exist and we just were having a beer at a bar and you brought up this game, I’m not sure I would have thought about it at all. Virginia Tech is favored -15 and my gut says that sounds right – it’s Tech after all. But they also seem to have a game each year where they just…underperform. Is that this week? Do they overlook the Flames because the Hurricanes come knocking next week? The GCR (which takes SOS into consideration) has Tech winning just 57.1%. This one may end up a blowout, but I’m watching a least some of this one to see for myself how good Liberty really is.
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The mid-afternoon games are also going to be fun. We’ve got Oklahoma St (14) heading to Kansas St (30) the week after both of them lost their first conference games – one should be all but eliminated for the championship game. Maryland (72) with a win over Minnesota (117) in a thriller last week is going to face a desperate Penn St (98) who is trying to avoid at 0-3 start. But the game to watch should be no surprise. The winner will most likely be in the SEC championship game: Florida (22) and Georgia (3) playing in Jacksonville like every other World’s Largest Cocktail Party. The Gators are 3-1 with wins over Mississippi (65), South Carolina (73), and Missouri (59) and losing to Texas A&M (7). The Bulldogs at 4-1 have victories against Arkansas (50), Auburn (31), Tennessee (48), and Kentucky (76) while losing to Alabama (1). Vegas sees a close one UGA -3.5 and the GCR agrees with the closeness, but UGA should win 62.0%
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In the evening, we finally have late night games from the west. But the game of the week has got to be Clemson (2) at Notre Dame (5). Both are undefeated (the Tigers are 7-0 and the Irish are 6-0), but here are some key differences. Clemson has an Offensive Efficiency Factor of 153, good for 4th in the country. Notre Dame has a respectable 109 (38th). Sidebar – the OEF is calculated essentially by saying how many points did the team score compared the number of points other teams score on that opponent. The DEF is the same for the defensive side of the ball. On defense the Irish have a 231 Defensive Efficiency Factor which is 2nd in the country while the Tigers are 13th at 158. The other thing to consider is that while Clemson’s opponents have just a .419 winning percentage (for comparison, Virginia opponent’s are .684), it towers over Notre Dame at .300. Duke (2-5), South Florida (1-5), Florida St (2-4), Louisville (2-5), Pittsburgh (3-4), and Georgia Tech (2-5). If Notre Dame wants to be seen as a real player on the national stage, they have to take advantage of Trevor Lawrence being out and win this game. Vegas doesn’t buy it at Clemson -6 and the GCR sees it as close but the Tigers winning it 55.1%.
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And that leads us to the predictions for all the games that qualify this week. But first, here’s how I did last week. There were 29 games predicted by the GCR last week and I expected to win 20.4 or .702 of them. Instead it was 23-6 for a .793 winning percentage! Here’s the table with the year to date and week 10 predictions:
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And here’s all 28 games for this week. I hope you enjoy and have a wonderful weekend. Please send comments and questions. As always I thank you for you sharing with others. G
Good stuff G; and you have outdone your self with almost an 80% prediction W/L last week…perhaps there is a place in the CFB pundit universe for the GCR!
My questions: How many games will Ohio State win this year? Same question for Nebraska! GB10 (Go Big 10!) – where the G doesn’t stand for G. Ha! Way to go….G!
Steve, great question and one I wish I could answer today. Because neither team (nor their opponents have played 3 games yet), the GCR will not be as accurate as we’d like. After this week’s games, I can give you initial GCR Ohio St prediction. After next week’s, Nebraska’s. Sorry, that’s the best I can do. This does make me think about a post on where the GCR thinks each conference will land – hmmm