Hello, oh great and patient college football fans. The last few weeks have been crazy insane in the ol’ G life (day job, home responsibilities, soon to be 18-year-old daughter, learning new songs for the band – shameless plug during an apology for Project Detour Band on all kinds of social media). That’s no excuse, though, as the SEC has done it again. For the 3rd time in the BCS/CFP era, both teams were from the conference. Georgia 14-1 (1) knocked the Alabama 13-2 (2) monkey off its back picking up its first championship since the 1980 season. Not only that, but it’s the third different SEC team to win in the last 3 years (LSU, Alabama, Georgia) and the 6th different SEC team with a title since the BCS began. Congratulations Bulldogs! By the way, that was Saban’s second career loss (with like 25 wins or something like that) against a former assistant. The other one? Texas A&M earlier this year. The GCR finished the postseason tied with Vegas picking 28 winners out of 42 games for a 66.7% win rate. 12 times the GCR picked upsets with a not horrible 6-6 record.
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Earlier this year, long-time reader, longer-time friend, and lead singer of Project Detour challenged 2-10 Indiana for being ranked in the top 30. They did have, by far, the most difficult schedule (their opponents won a ridiculous 67.7% of their games and every FBS team they played qualified for a bowl after Rutgers snuck in to play Wake Forest), but that shouldn’t have that much of an impact. While the bowl games dropped them to 52nd, that still doesn’t sound right (51st is Auburn, 53rd is N Illinois). Would even die-hard Hoosiers think there would be a chance against either of those teams? So, part of what I’ve been doing these last few weeks is work on next year’s formula that changes the scales of both SOS and Performance thus reducing an overshifting, if that’s a word, due to one factor or the other. There’s also a scaling mechanism that keeps the means of the two across all teams close to equal along with a few calculation changes. I’ve put both rankings in this blog as a comparison. Indiana, by the way, dropped to 76th in that model (between Boston College and Marshall) which seems a little better – probably still a little high, but more realistic. Otherwise in this post, I’ll be using the 2021 model.
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Before we get to the final rankings, let’s take a look at how the conferences did starting with the FCS. Congratulations to the FCS champions, North Dakota St 14-1 (77) who were also the highest ranked FCS team. It’s easy for the best schools in the little sister of the FBS to get lost in the rankings, so I’ve listed the top 25 in the table. To put it into perspective, there are 65 Power 5 teams and 65 Group of 5 teams. For comparison, use 194.5 as an expected average rank. The FCS top 25 are all in the top 150 overall. From worst conference to best (based on average overall ranking),
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| Conference (Teams) | Record (pct) | Best Team | Worst Team | AvgRank | 1-10 Ranked Teams | 11-25 Ranked Teams |
| Patriot (7) | 30-48 (.385) | Holy Cross 10-3 (122) | Bucknell 1-10 (255) | 213.1 | — | HC (122/16) |
| MEAC (8) | 28-38 (.424) | South Carolina St 7-5 (165) | Morgan St 2-9 (256) | 205.7 | — | — |
| Northeast (8) | 38-49 (.437) | Duquesne 7-3 (151) | Wagner 0-11 (258) | 201.1 | — | — |
| Pioneer (11) | 55-63 (.466) | Davidson 8-3 (144) | Presbyterian 2-9 (253) | 199.9 | — | DAV (144/22) |
| Big South (9) | 46-53 (.465) | Kennesaw St 11-2 (96) | N Alabama 3-8 (237) | 194.9 | KENN (96/7) | — |
| Ohio Valley (7) | 35-44 (.443) | Tennessee Martin 10-3 (115) | E Illinois 1-10 (254) | 194.7 | — | UTM (115/11) |
| Southland (6) | 32-38 (.457) | Incarnate Word 10-3 (121) | Houston Baptist 0-11 (257) | 191.3 | — | IW (121/15), SELA (145/23) |
| SWAC (12) | 64-71 (.474) | Jackson St 11-2 (95) | Ark Pine Bluff 2-9 (242) | 190.6 | JACK (95/6) | FLAM (135/19) |
| SoCon (9) | 49-51 (.490) | E Tennessee St 11-2 (92) | Wofford 1-10 (252) | 184.9 | ETSU (92/5) | MERC (139/20) |
| AQ7/WAC (9) | 50-51 (.495) | Sam Houston 11-1 (81) | Dixie St 1-10 (250) | 184.6 | SHOU (81/2) | SFA (148/24) |
| Big Sky (13) | 76-77 (.497) | Montana St 12-3 (88) | S Utah 1-10 (248) | 180.2 | MTST (88/4) | MONT (116/12), EWAS (119/14), SAC (132/18), UCD (150/25) |
| Colonial (12) | 72-65 (.526) | James Madison 12-2 (82) | Albany 2-9 (246) | 178.3 | JMU (82/3), VILL (112/10) | — |
| Ivy (8) | 45-35 (.563) | Princeton 9-1 (101) | Cornell 2-8 (247) | 174.6 | PRIN (101/8), DART (102/9) | HARV (126/17) |
| Missouri Valley (11) | 73-60 (.549) | North Dakota St 14-1 (77) | W Illinois 2-9 (245) | 171.9 | NDST (77/1) | SDKS (117/13), MOST (140/21) |
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Now let’s look at the FBS. With 130 teams, we can set 65.5 as an expected average rank for comparison. Since 17 FCS schools landed in the top 130, the overall average is actually lower, but in theory… I’ve added a column on this table that shows the conference’s record against the GCR top 25. Those teams were a combined 273-68 for an .801 winning percentage – so the expected winning percentage against the top 25 should be .199 – again for comparison. From worst to first by average rank:
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| Conference (Teams) | Record (pct) | vs T25 | Best Team | Worst Team | AvgRank | 1-10 Ranked Teams | 11-25 Ranked Teams |
| Conference USA (14) | 84-94 (.472) | 1-15 (.063) | UTSA 12-1 (23) | Charlotte 5-7 (162) | 110.9 | — | UTSA (23) |
| MAC (12) | 73-81 (.474) | 1-9 (.100) | N Illinois 9-4 (53) | Buffalo 4-8 (167) | 109.9 | — | — |
| Sun Belt (10) | 65-61 (.516) | 0-13 (.000) | Louisiana 13-1 (16) | Arkansas St 2-10 (146) | 91.7 | — | ULL (16) |
| Mountain West (12) | 84-69 (.549) | 4-11 (.267) | San Diego St 12-2 (19) | San Jose St 5-7 (141) | 78.9 | — | SDST (19) |
| American (11) | 73-65 (.529) | 1-16 (.059) | Cincinnati 13-1 (8) | Temple 3-9 (147) | 76.3 | CIN (8) | — |
| Pac-12 | 71-80 (.470) | 5-25 (.167) | Utah 10-4 (21) | California 5-7 (128) | 76.2 | — | UTAH (21), ORE (22) |
| Independents (7) | 42-46 (.477) | 3-13 (.188) | Notre Dame 11-2 (10) | UMASS 1-11 (131) | 72.9 | ND (10) | — |
| ACC (14) | 94-82 (.534) | 7-33 (.175) | Clemson 10-3 (11) | Duke 3-9 (134) | 60.5 | — | CLEM (11), WF (17), PITT (18) |
| Big Ten (14) | 103-77 (.572) | 16-53 (.232) | Michigan 12-2 (3) | Northwestern 3-9 (86) | 37.0 | MICH (3), OHST (6), MIST (7) | WISC (14), PUR (15), IOWA (24) |
| Big 12 (10) | 75-54 (.581) | 10-26 (.278) | Oklahoma St 12-2 (4) | Kansas 2-10 (65) | 36.1 | OKST (4), BAY (5), OKLA (9) | — |
| SEC (14) | 111-73 (.603) | 20-40 (.333) | Georgia14-1 (1) | Vanderbilt 2-10 (91) | 36.0 | UGA (1), ALA (2) | ARK (12), MISS (13), KENT (20), TENN (25) |
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A couple of things: I talked a lot about how bad the Pac12 was and after a winless bowl season they had the worst winning percentage of any FBS conference. If all 25 D1 conferences are considered, their .470 winning percentage comes in 18th! Compare them to even the ACC (who was not even close to the Big 3 this year) and the clearly have a lot of work to do to be relevant any time soon. Without Utah and Oregon, the conference was just 51-72 (.414) which is as close to rock bottom as a Power 5 conference can get. The second thing is how distant the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC are from everyone else and how close they are to each other. The Big 12 is very top heavy, but the other two are well represented throughout the top 25.
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And now for the official final GCR for the 2021 season:
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And as a comparison, the 2021 season through the updated formulas and approach for 2022 (subject to further improvements).
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After the top 5, there is a lot of movement in the upper echelon. Some shift a good bit; others stay about where they are. Drops from top 25 from 2021 to 2022 versions: Arkansas (12 to 27), Purdue (15 to 28), and Tennessee (25 to 46). Their replacements: Houston (29 to 14), Coastal Carolina (42 to 18), and NC St (31 to 21).
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That’s it for today. Look for another post in the coming weeks evaluating FBS divisions. Thank you for reading and being patient. And one more callout with a Happy Birthday to long-time reader and long-time friend Carl. See you soon, G
